TPP: A Real Test of Strength for Japanese Diplomacy
YAKUSHIJI Katsuyuki / Senior Associate, The Tokyo Foundation
May 29, 2013
Following recent developments, Japan is now expected to join the negotiating table for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as early as July.
TPP is not simply about liberalizing trade in goods, but covers a broad range of economic activities involving people, money and services, such as investment, intellectual property, government procurement, competition policy and acceptance of foreign labor. Negotiations on TPP could lead to a sea change in the economic order of the Asia-Pacific region. For this reason, deciding not to participate in the talks is tantamount to relinquishing the right to participate in the development of a new regional economic order of the future and condemning a country to a fate of self-inflicted closure and decline. It is due to this shared recognition that the Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as well as major leaders of both the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Japan and most of the domestic media have come to support Japan’s participation in TPP. Agricultural organizations and others that continue to express vociferous opposition despite this overall trend are generally perceived to be doing so only to better their chances at seizing subsidies and other benefits in return for their acquiescence to the negotiation.
For Japan, TPP holds a significance that goes beyond the formation of a new economic order. It offers an opportunity to create a stable environment for ensuring security in the Asia-Pacific region. There would have been no issue if the two giant nations - the United States and China – adhered to the same rules when acting in the political, economic and military arenas. However, in realty the two countries differ completely in terms of their political system, philosophy and values, and are each seeking to gain influence over the region according to their own self-serving rules. For Japan, an ally of the United States, TPP serves as a strategy for building a broad alliance with the United States and Asia-Pacific countries that would enable Japan to face up to an increasingly powerful China, or to lure China into following the same rules.
One point we must not forget when considering this issue is the magnitude of Japan’s economic influence. Whenever the topic turns to TPP, the initial debate in Japan tends to revolve around such passive themes as whether we will be able to preserve the tariffs for domestic agricultural products. Yet, in the arena of diplomatic negotiations, Japan is an impressive economic presence whose actions command the attention of other countries participating in the talks. And commensurate with that status, Japan is expected to play an active role in mobilizing the participating countries to form an overall consensus.
Indeed, as soon as then Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda declared Japan’s intention of entering into talks with relevant countries towards participation in the TPP negotiation in November 2011, Canada and Mexico announced their participation and consequently joined the negotiation a step ahead of Japan. And when Prime Minister Abe announced Japan’s intention to participate during the Japan-U.S. summit meeting in February this year, it had the effect of jumpstarting multilateral economic negotiations involving Japan, such as the Free Trade Agreement between Japan, China and South Korea, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that includes these three countries and Southeast Asian countries, as well as the Economic Partnership Agreement between Japan and the European Union.
In each of these cases, fear of falling behind the TPP negotiations led by Japan and the United States motivated other countries to hasten their efforts to involve Japan in a separate framework. This is particularly so with China, which appears to have adopted an approach of separating political and economic issues to actively seek a new economic relationship with Japan despite the current diplomatic deadlock in the disputes over the Senkaku Islands and the Yasukuni Shrine.
Looking back on Japanese diplomacy over the past few decades, Japan has never been more popular in the international community than today. Various countries and regional groups are making gestures to woo Japan into joining their economic framework. From the standpoint of diplomatic negotiations, one cannot hope for a greater advantage. Japan has been placed in a privileged position to maximize its national interests by skillfully playing on the motives of other countries.
Unfortunately, the environment surrounding Japanese diplomacy and security has become increasingly uncertain over the past few years. North Korea continues to engage in adventurism by conducting nuclear tests and firing missiles. Just how stable the government of the young Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un is remains an open question. China meanwhile has repeatedly violated Japanese territorial waters and airspace, and shows no signs of softening its rigid stance over the Senkaku Islands dispute. And Japan’s relationship with South Korea has not improved in any way in the territorial dispute over the Takeshima Islands.
Matters have been further exacerbated by visits made by Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso and other cabinet members to the Yasukuni Shrine to pay their respects to Japan’s war dead. Prime Minister Abe’s hard-line response of endorsing the visits has led to a string of cancellations in the diplomatic schedule for May, including a trilateral summit meeting with Chinese and South Korean leaders. Diplomatic activity towards Japan’s nearest neighbors has come to a virtual standstill. Moreover, due to the lack of progress on the issue of relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station in Futenma, Okinawa, the key relationship between Japan and the United States has become shrouded in a cloud of mutual mistrust.
The situation makes diplomatic negotiations all the more important for creating a stable environment. And in that sense, having been handed a set of good “cards” by its intended participation in the TPP talks, Japan now has a golden opportunity to pursue its diplomatic strategy.
TPP participants are aiming to reach agreement within the year. In the final stages, there will be a clash of interests and opinions among countries, necessitating tough negotiations on the part of ministers and leaders of each country. Will Japan be able to achieve its national interests by maneuvering adroitly to maximize on its current popularity? This is indeed a crucial moment that will test the true strength of Japanese diplomacy.
Katsuyuki Yakushiji is also Professor of Social and International Relations at Toyo University. The commentary was first published on the Tokyo Foundation website on May 2, 2013, and was reproduced here in summarized form with permission from the writer.
TPP is not simply about liberalizing trade in goods, but covers a broad range of economic activities involving people, money and services, such as investment, intellectual property, government procurement, competition policy and acceptance of foreign labor. Negotiations on TPP could lead to a sea change in the economic order of the Asia-Pacific region. For this reason, deciding not to participate in the talks is tantamount to relinquishing the right to participate in the development of a new regional economic order of the future and condemning a country to a fate of self-inflicted closure and decline. It is due to this shared recognition that the Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as well as major leaders of both the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Japan and most of the domestic media have come to support Japan’s participation in TPP. Agricultural organizations and others that continue to express vociferous opposition despite this overall trend are generally perceived to be doing so only to better their chances at seizing subsidies and other benefits in return for their acquiescence to the negotiation.
For Japan, TPP holds a significance that goes beyond the formation of a new economic order. It offers an opportunity to create a stable environment for ensuring security in the Asia-Pacific region. There would have been no issue if the two giant nations - the United States and China – adhered to the same rules when acting in the political, economic and military arenas. However, in realty the two countries differ completely in terms of their political system, philosophy and values, and are each seeking to gain influence over the region according to their own self-serving rules. For Japan, an ally of the United States, TPP serves as a strategy for building a broad alliance with the United States and Asia-Pacific countries that would enable Japan to face up to an increasingly powerful China, or to lure China into following the same rules.
One point we must not forget when considering this issue is the magnitude of Japan’s economic influence. Whenever the topic turns to TPP, the initial debate in Japan tends to revolve around such passive themes as whether we will be able to preserve the tariffs for domestic agricultural products. Yet, in the arena of diplomatic negotiations, Japan is an impressive economic presence whose actions command the attention of other countries participating in the talks. And commensurate with that status, Japan is expected to play an active role in mobilizing the participating countries to form an overall consensus.
Indeed, as soon as then Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda declared Japan’s intention of entering into talks with relevant countries towards participation in the TPP negotiation in November 2011, Canada and Mexico announced their participation and consequently joined the negotiation a step ahead of Japan. And when Prime Minister Abe announced Japan’s intention to participate during the Japan-U.S. summit meeting in February this year, it had the effect of jumpstarting multilateral economic negotiations involving Japan, such as the Free Trade Agreement between Japan, China and South Korea, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that includes these three countries and Southeast Asian countries, as well as the Economic Partnership Agreement between Japan and the European Union.
In each of these cases, fear of falling behind the TPP negotiations led by Japan and the United States motivated other countries to hasten their efforts to involve Japan in a separate framework. This is particularly so with China, which appears to have adopted an approach of separating political and economic issues to actively seek a new economic relationship with Japan despite the current diplomatic deadlock in the disputes over the Senkaku Islands and the Yasukuni Shrine.
Looking back on Japanese diplomacy over the past few decades, Japan has never been more popular in the international community than today. Various countries and regional groups are making gestures to woo Japan into joining their economic framework. From the standpoint of diplomatic negotiations, one cannot hope for a greater advantage. Japan has been placed in a privileged position to maximize its national interests by skillfully playing on the motives of other countries.
Unfortunately, the environment surrounding Japanese diplomacy and security has become increasingly uncertain over the past few years. North Korea continues to engage in adventurism by conducting nuclear tests and firing missiles. Just how stable the government of the young Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un is remains an open question. China meanwhile has repeatedly violated Japanese territorial waters and airspace, and shows no signs of softening its rigid stance over the Senkaku Islands dispute. And Japan’s relationship with South Korea has not improved in any way in the territorial dispute over the Takeshima Islands.
Matters have been further exacerbated by visits made by Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso and other cabinet members to the Yasukuni Shrine to pay their respects to Japan’s war dead. Prime Minister Abe’s hard-line response of endorsing the visits has led to a string of cancellations in the diplomatic schedule for May, including a trilateral summit meeting with Chinese and South Korean leaders. Diplomatic activity towards Japan’s nearest neighbors has come to a virtual standstill. Moreover, due to the lack of progress on the issue of relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station in Futenma, Okinawa, the key relationship between Japan and the United States has become shrouded in a cloud of mutual mistrust.
The situation makes diplomatic negotiations all the more important for creating a stable environment. And in that sense, having been handed a set of good “cards” by its intended participation in the TPP talks, Japan now has a golden opportunity to pursue its diplomatic strategy.
TPP participants are aiming to reach agreement within the year. In the final stages, there will be a clash of interests and opinions among countries, necessitating tough negotiations on the part of ministers and leaders of each country. Will Japan be able to achieve its national interests by maneuvering adroitly to maximize on its current popularity? This is indeed a crucial moment that will test the true strength of Japanese diplomacy.
Katsuyuki Yakushiji is also Professor of Social and International Relations at Toyo University. The commentary was first published on the Tokyo Foundation website on May 2, 2013, and was reproduced here in summarized form with permission from the writer.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
TPP －日本外交の実力が試されるとき
薬師寺 克行 / 東京財団上席アソシエイト
2013年 5月 29日
日本が７月にも環太平洋経済連携協定（ＴＰＰ）の交渉に参加する見通しとなった。
ＴＰＰは単にモノの貿易自由化だけでなく、投資、知的財産、政府調達、競争政策、外国人労働者受け入れなどヒト、カネ、サービスを含む幅広い経済活動をカバーしており、アジア太平洋地域の経済秩序の一大改革になりうる交渉となっている。従ってそれに参加しない選択は、次の時代の地域経済の秩序形成に参加することを放棄することを意味するだけでなく、自ら国を閉ざし衰退していく運命を背負うことになる。それが分かっているから、安倍首相はもちろん内閣全体も、自民党や民主党など主要政党幹部も、そして国内の主要メディアも、ほとんどがＴＰＰ参加を支持している。にもかかわらず農業団体などが声高に反対を唱えているのは、もはや参加の見返りに補助金などを獲得しようという条件闘争とみなされている。
また日本にとってＴＰＰには経済新秩序形成以外の意味がある。それはアジア太平洋地域の安定的な安全保障環境の形成だ。米国と中国という二つの大きな国が、同じルールに基づき政治、経済、軍事などの分野で活動するのであれば問題はない。ところが両国は政治体制も思想も価値観も全く異なり、それぞれが自分に都合のいいルールでこの地域に影響力を発揮しようとしている。であるから米国と同盟関係にある日本にとってTPPは、台頭する中国に向き合うための、あるいは中国をこちらのルールに誘い込むための米国やアジア太平洋諸国との「同盟化戦略」でもあるのだ。
これらの問題を考えるときに忘れてならないのは、日本の経済力の大きさである。ＴＰＰ交渉参加が話題になると、国内では農産物の関税は守ることができるのかなどという受動的な議論が先行する。ところが外交交渉の現場では、日本は堂々たる経済大国であり、他の交渉参加国は日本の対応を注視せざるを得ない。日本には全体の合意形成に積極的に動き回る能動的な役割が求められているのだ。
実際、２０１１年１１月に野田首相が「ＴＰＰ交渉参加に向けて関係国との協議に入る」と表明したとたん、カナダとメキシコは慌てて参加を表明し、結果的に日本より一足先に参加してしまった。また、今年２月の日米首脳会談で安倍首相が参加の意思を表明すると、今度は日中韓のＦＴＡ交渉や、日中韓と東南アジア諸国などが参加する東アジア地域包括的経済連携（ＲＣＥＰ）、さらには日本とＥＵのＥＰＡ交渉など日本が絡む多国間の経済交渉が一気に動き出した。
いずれも日米両国が加わるＴＰＰの交渉が先行することを懸念し、日本を巻き込んだ別の枠組み作りを急ごうとしているのだ。特に中国との間は、尖閣問題や靖国問題で完全に膠着状態にあるにもかかわらず、経済分野では日本との新たな関係構築に積極的なようで、「政経分離」の対応をしているようにも見える。
ここ十数年の日本外交を振り返った時、国際社会で日本がこれほどモテたことはない。あちこちの国やグループが日本を取り込んだ経済秩序を作りたいと秋波を送ってきている。「外交交渉」の観点から見ると、これほど有利な立場はない。各国の動きを巧みに利用しながら国益を最大限に実現することができる恵まれた状況にある。
ただし残念なことに近年、日本を取り巻く外交・安全保障環境は不安定化している。北朝鮮は核実験やミサイル発射という暴走を繰り返している。若い金正恩最高指導者の体制がどこまで安定的基盤を構築しているのか不明である。また、尖閣問題を抱える中国は公船などによる領海侵犯、領空侵犯を繰り返しており、硬直的対応を変える気配はない。韓国との関係も竹島問題を抱えたまま改善したとは言えない。そこに麻生太郎副首相ら一部閣僚の靖国神社参拝が影を落としている。安倍首相自身が麻生氏らの行動を擁護する強硬な対応を見せたため、５月末に予定されていた日中韓三カ国首脳会談など外交日程があいついでキャンセルされた。近隣外交は今、ストップしてしまった。さらに、肝心の日米間も普天間飛行場の移転問題が進展せず、相互の信頼関係が揺らいでいる。
ここは外交交渉を通じて安定的な環境を作っていくことが重要になってくる。そういう意味でもＴＰＰ交渉参加をきっかけに日本が多くの「外交カード」を手にしたことは戦略的外交を展開する好機である。
ＴＰＰ交渉は年内合意を目標としている。最終的局面では各国の利害、主張が対立し、閣僚ら各国首脳間で厳しい交渉を展開することになるだろう。モテモテの日本がうまく立ち回って国益を実現できるか、日本外交が正念場を迎えていることは間違いない。
（筆者は東京財団上席アソシエイト、東洋大学社会学部教授。本稿は東京財団ウェブサイトに5月2日付で掲載されたものを筆者の了解を得て要約したものである。）
ＴＰＰは単にモノの貿易自由化だけでなく、投資、知的財産、政府調達、競争政策、外国人労働者受け入れなどヒト、カネ、サービスを含む幅広い経済活動をカバーしており、アジア太平洋地域の経済秩序の一大改革になりうる交渉となっている。従ってそれに参加しない選択は、次の時代の地域経済の秩序形成に参加することを放棄することを意味するだけでなく、自ら国を閉ざし衰退していく運命を背負うことになる。それが分かっているから、安倍首相はもちろん内閣全体も、自民党や民主党など主要政党幹部も、そして国内の主要メディアも、ほとんどがＴＰＰ参加を支持している。にもかかわらず農業団体などが声高に反対を唱えているのは、もはや参加の見返りに補助金などを獲得しようという条件闘争とみなされている。
また日本にとってＴＰＰには経済新秩序形成以外の意味がある。それはアジア太平洋地域の安定的な安全保障環境の形成だ。米国と中国という二つの大きな国が、同じルールに基づき政治、経済、軍事などの分野で活動するのであれば問題はない。ところが両国は政治体制も思想も価値観も全く異なり、それぞれが自分に都合のいいルールでこの地域に影響力を発揮しようとしている。であるから米国と同盟関係にある日本にとってTPPは、台頭する中国に向き合うための、あるいは中国をこちらのルールに誘い込むための米国やアジア太平洋諸国との「同盟化戦略」でもあるのだ。
これらの問題を考えるときに忘れてならないのは、日本の経済力の大きさである。ＴＰＰ交渉参加が話題になると、国内では農産物の関税は守ることができるのかなどという受動的な議論が先行する。ところが外交交渉の現場では、日本は堂々たる経済大国であり、他の交渉参加国は日本の対応を注視せざるを得ない。日本には全体の合意形成に積極的に動き回る能動的な役割が求められているのだ。
実際、２０１１年１１月に野田首相が「ＴＰＰ交渉参加に向けて関係国との協議に入る」と表明したとたん、カナダとメキシコは慌てて参加を表明し、結果的に日本より一足先に参加してしまった。また、今年２月の日米首脳会談で安倍首相が参加の意思を表明すると、今度は日中韓のＦＴＡ交渉や、日中韓と東南アジア諸国などが参加する東アジア地域包括的経済連携（ＲＣＥＰ）、さらには日本とＥＵのＥＰＡ交渉など日本が絡む多国間の経済交渉が一気に動き出した。
いずれも日米両国が加わるＴＰＰの交渉が先行することを懸念し、日本を巻き込んだ別の枠組み作りを急ごうとしているのだ。特に中国との間は、尖閣問題や靖国問題で完全に膠着状態にあるにもかかわらず、経済分野では日本との新たな関係構築に積極的なようで、「政経分離」の対応をしているようにも見える。
ここ十数年の日本外交を振り返った時、国際社会で日本がこれほどモテたことはない。あちこちの国やグループが日本を取り込んだ経済秩序を作りたいと秋波を送ってきている。「外交交渉」の観点から見ると、これほど有利な立場はない。各国の動きを巧みに利用しながら国益を最大限に実現することができる恵まれた状況にある。
ただし残念なことに近年、日本を取り巻く外交・安全保障環境は不安定化している。北朝鮮は核実験やミサイル発射という暴走を繰り返している。若い金正恩最高指導者の体制がどこまで安定的基盤を構築しているのか不明である。また、尖閣問題を抱える中国は公船などによる領海侵犯、領空侵犯を繰り返しており、硬直的対応を変える気配はない。韓国との関係も竹島問題を抱えたまま改善したとは言えない。そこに麻生太郎副首相ら一部閣僚の靖国神社参拝が影を落としている。安倍首相自身が麻生氏らの行動を擁護する強硬な対応を見せたため、５月末に予定されていた日中韓三カ国首脳会談など外交日程があいついでキャンセルされた。近隣外交は今、ストップしてしまった。さらに、肝心の日米間も普天間飛行場の移転問題が進展せず、相互の信頼関係が揺らいでいる。
ここは外交交渉を通じて安定的な環境を作っていくことが重要になってくる。そういう意味でもＴＰＰ交渉参加をきっかけに日本が多くの「外交カード」を手にしたことは戦略的外交を展開する好機である。
ＴＰＰ交渉は年内合意を目標としている。最終的局面では各国の利害、主張が対立し、閣僚ら各国首脳間で厳しい交渉を展開することになるだろう。モテモテの日本がうまく立ち回って国益を実現できるか、日本外交が正念場を迎えていることは間違いない。
（筆者は東京財団上席アソシエイト、東洋大学社会学部教授。本稿は東京財団ウェブサイトに5月2日付で掲載されたものを筆者の了解を得て要約したものである。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟