Time for Egypt to Show its Wisdom
TAKAHASHI Hiroshi / Associate Professor, Yokohama National University
October 2, 2013
Two and a half years since the people's revolution, the political situation in Egypt has become highly volatile. Having risen to power as a result of the revolution, President Mohamed Morsi was ousted by a military coup. More than 850 Morsi supporters including members of the Muslim Brotherhood who had been staging sit-in protests were killed by security forces seeking to remove them by force.
The failure of economic policy and frequent blackouts had reached a point that was unbearable for the Egyptian public. Nevertheless, the military ouster of a democratically elected President is clearly a setback for democratization. Though the coup d'etat was preceded by massive anti-Morsi demonstrations, they were not as energetic as protests that took place during the people's revolution, according to local media reports. The military establishment used the "popular will" as a pretext to regain power by taking over the mass demonstrations, quashing persistent pro-Morsi factions and intensifying its repression of the Muslim Brotherhood by branding it a "terrorist organization." There are some concerns that Egypt will become a second Algeria.
In Algeria, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), an Islamic fundamentalist group, won a landslide victory in the country's first multiple-party general elections that took place in 1991. Fearing a rapid transformation to Islam, the military leaders seized power and outlawed the FIS. Militant factions retaliated with frequent terrorist attacks, and more than 100,000 people lost their lives over the next seven years. In my view, the situation in Egypt is unlikely to deteriorate into a quagmire in the same way as Algeria. While military conflict and political instability may continue for some time, I believe Egypt's military establishment and the Muslim Brotherhood will move to resolve the crisis over the mid- to long-term.
The Muslim Brotherhood is a dedicated group operating social welfare activities out of mosques, and has the support of the underprivileged classes that make up 40% of the population. However, in 1952 when Gamal Abdel Nasser and his young military officers seized power, it caused an internal split in the Brotherhood and its militant faction got out of control, taking part in an assassination attempt on Nasser, who had become President by that time. The Brotherhood was outlawed and ruthlessly suppressed for half a century, leaving a bitter lesson behind. Today, even if some of its dissatisfied factions turn extremist, they are unlikely to win the support of the general public, which for the most part is seeking "stable living conditions rather than confusion and bloodshed."
Meanwhile, the military establishment cannot ignore the criticism against its coup d'etat and military crackdown from western countries – the United States in particular. The 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion dollars it receives in U.S. military aid is essential. It should also be noted that the U.S. government has not played along with the Egyptian military's claim that the Muslim Brotherhood is a "terrorist organization." Egypt is far more important geopolitically than Algeria, and any further deterioration in the situation will undoubtedly bring on a full-fledged effort on the part of the United States as well as the international community to prevent a deadlock. Neither should we overlook the mild-mannered and moderate national character of the Egyptian people.
The previous regime of President Hosni Mubarak was clearly dictatorial and the masses were effectively denied a voice. As one who has known those times I find it incredible that popular demonstrations openly challenging the military establishment or security forces have now become part of the country's daily life. Mass demonstrations that led to the coup were organized by the youth organization "Tamarod (rebellion) movement," and a petition seeking President Morsi's resignation was signed by 23 million people. A society that allows free speech has indeed been a "fruit" of the people’s revolution.
However, the media is currently facing even greater pressure than under the Mubarak regime, and public safety has declined to a point that threatens to turn Egypt into a police state. Many Egyptians simply meant to say no to a radical Islamic state; they weren't seeking military rule. What Egypt needs now is an open discussion between those with different standpoints, and the establishment of a model of "democracy based on a softer version of Islam" sought by its people.
I would like to call on the interim government to begin by lifting the state of emergency and apologizing to its people for the bloodshed caused by the military crackdown. That done, it should hasten the discussion on nation building that includes the Muslim Brotherhood. Individuals on bad terms with each may become caught up in an excited quarrel, but as the fighting takes a violent turn an elder would step in to break it up, saying "Alright, that's enough!" - I remember frequently encountering such a scene on the streets of Cairo. This characteristically Egyptian "wisdom" and "tolerance" is what I earnestly hope to see now.
Hiroshi Takahashi is Associate Professor of Yokohama National University and former Cairo correspondent for the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
The failure of economic policy and frequent blackouts had reached a point that was unbearable for the Egyptian public. Nevertheless, the military ouster of a democratically elected President is clearly a setback for democratization. Though the coup d'etat was preceded by massive anti-Morsi demonstrations, they were not as energetic as protests that took place during the people's revolution, according to local media reports. The military establishment used the "popular will" as a pretext to regain power by taking over the mass demonstrations, quashing persistent pro-Morsi factions and intensifying its repression of the Muslim Brotherhood by branding it a "terrorist organization." There are some concerns that Egypt will become a second Algeria.
In Algeria, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), an Islamic fundamentalist group, won a landslide victory in the country's first multiple-party general elections that took place in 1991. Fearing a rapid transformation to Islam, the military leaders seized power and outlawed the FIS. Militant factions retaliated with frequent terrorist attacks, and more than 100,000 people lost their lives over the next seven years. In my view, the situation in Egypt is unlikely to deteriorate into a quagmire in the same way as Algeria. While military conflict and political instability may continue for some time, I believe Egypt's military establishment and the Muslim Brotherhood will move to resolve the crisis over the mid- to long-term.
The Muslim Brotherhood is a dedicated group operating social welfare activities out of mosques, and has the support of the underprivileged classes that make up 40% of the population. However, in 1952 when Gamal Abdel Nasser and his young military officers seized power, it caused an internal split in the Brotherhood and its militant faction got out of control, taking part in an assassination attempt on Nasser, who had become President by that time. The Brotherhood was outlawed and ruthlessly suppressed for half a century, leaving a bitter lesson behind. Today, even if some of its dissatisfied factions turn extremist, they are unlikely to win the support of the general public, which for the most part is seeking "stable living conditions rather than confusion and bloodshed."
Meanwhile, the military establishment cannot ignore the criticism against its coup d'etat and military crackdown from western countries – the United States in particular. The 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion dollars it receives in U.S. military aid is essential. It should also be noted that the U.S. government has not played along with the Egyptian military's claim that the Muslim Brotherhood is a "terrorist organization." Egypt is far more important geopolitically than Algeria, and any further deterioration in the situation will undoubtedly bring on a full-fledged effort on the part of the United States as well as the international community to prevent a deadlock. Neither should we overlook the mild-mannered and moderate national character of the Egyptian people.
The previous regime of President Hosni Mubarak was clearly dictatorial and the masses were effectively denied a voice. As one who has known those times I find it incredible that popular demonstrations openly challenging the military establishment or security forces have now become part of the country's daily life. Mass demonstrations that led to the coup were organized by the youth organization "Tamarod (rebellion) movement," and a petition seeking President Morsi's resignation was signed by 23 million people. A society that allows free speech has indeed been a "fruit" of the people’s revolution.
However, the media is currently facing even greater pressure than under the Mubarak regime, and public safety has declined to a point that threatens to turn Egypt into a police state. Many Egyptians simply meant to say no to a radical Islamic state; they weren't seeking military rule. What Egypt needs now is an open discussion between those with different standpoints, and the establishment of a model of "democracy based on a softer version of Islam" sought by its people.
I would like to call on the interim government to begin by lifting the state of emergency and apologizing to its people for the bloodshed caused by the military crackdown. That done, it should hasten the discussion on nation building that includes the Muslim Brotherhood. Individuals on bad terms with each may become caught up in an excited quarrel, but as the fighting takes a violent turn an elder would step in to break it up, saying "Alright, that's enough!" - I remember frequently encountering such a scene on the streets of Cairo. This characteristically Egyptian "wisdom" and "tolerance" is what I earnestly hope to see now.
Hiroshi Takahashi is Associate Professor of Yokohama National University and former Cairo correspondent for the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
エジプトの「知恵」を今こそ示せ
高橋 弘司 / 横浜国立大学 准教授
2013年 10月 2日
２年半前に民衆革命を実現したエジプトで政治情勢が急変している。民衆革命で誕生したモルシ大統領が軍部のクーデターで失脚し、抗議の座り込みを続けていたイスラム組織「ムスリム同胞団」メンバーらモルシ氏支持派８５０人以上が治安部隊による強制排除で死亡した。
経済政策の失敗や停電の頻発などが我慢の限度を超えていたとはいえ、民主的な選挙で選ばれたモルシ大統領が軍部に政権を追われたことは、明らかな民主化の後退だ。クーデターの前段として、反モルシを掲げた大規模デモが続いていたが、現地報道によると民衆革命当時と比べると緊張感に欠けたものだったという。軍部は「民意」を口実に大規模デモを乗っ取る形で政権を奪還し、抵抗を続けるモルシ支持派を抑え込み、同胞団を「テロ組織」と名指しして弾圧強化に乗り出した。エジプトがかつてのアルジェリアの二の舞にならないか懸念も指摘されている。
アルジェリアでは91年、初の複数政党制による総選挙で、イスラム原理主義組織「イスラム救国戦線」（ＦＩＳ）が圧勝した。急激なイスラム化を恐れた軍首脳らが実権を掌握し、ＦＩＳを非合法化。反発したイスラム過激派によるテロが頻発し、７年間で10万人以上が犠牲になった。だがエジプトでは当分、武力衝突や政治的不安定が続くとしても、アルジェリアのように泥沼化はせず、中・長期的には軍部と同胞団の双方が収束に向けて動き出すと、私はみる。
同胞団はモスクを拠点とする地道な社会福祉活動で、国民の４割を占める貧困層の支持を得ている。しかし１９５２年、ナセルを中心とした軍の青年将校団がクーデターで政権を握った後、同胞団は内部分裂から急進派が暴走し、ナセル（当時大統領に就任）の暗殺未遂事件に関与するなどして非合法化され、半世紀にわたり徹底弾圧された苦い教訓を持つ。今回、一部不満分子が先鋭化したとしても、世論の大勢は「混乱や流血より生活の安定」を求めており、支持が広がる可能性はない。
軍部とて、クーデターや武力弾圧に対する欧米諸国、とりわけ米国の批判は無視できない。年間13～15億㌦にのぼる米国の軍事支援は不可欠だ。米国が同胞団を「テロ組織」と非難するエジプト軍部の主張に組みしない点にも注目したい。エジプトの地政学的重要性はアルジェリアとは比較にならず、事態がさらに悪化するなら、米国のみならず、国際社会が泥沼化阻止に全力を挙げるのは疑いない。加えて、温厚で「中庸」を好むエジプト人の国民性も見逃せない。
独裁色が強く、民衆の言論が事実上封殺されていたムバラク政権当時を知る私には、軍部や治安部隊に公然と異を唱える民衆デモの日常化は驚きだ。クーデターにつながった大規模デモは、若者組織「タマッルド（反乱）運動」が仕掛け、モルシ大統領辞任を求めた署名活動は２３００万人もの賛同を集めた。物が自由に言える社会の出現は、革命の「果実」といえた。
だが事態はムバラク政権時代にも増してメディアへの締め付けが進み、治安が悪化、警察国家となりかねない情勢だ。多くのエジプト人は急進的なイスラム国家を否定したにすぎず、軍政を求めたわけでもない。今、エジプトに不可欠なのは、立場の異なる者同士の広範な議論と、彼らが求める「柔らかなイスラムに基づく民主主義」モデルの確立だ。
暫定政権に注文したい。まずは非常事態令を解除、流血の弾圧を国民に謝罪すべきだ。その上で、同胞団を含めた国造りの議論を急ぐことが望まれる。仲の悪い者同士が口角、泡を飛ばしてけんかをしても、激しい殴り合いになると、「まあ、そのくらいにしておけ！」と長老が仲裁に入る。カイロの街角でたびたび目にした光景を思い出す。そんなエジプト流の「知恵」と「懐の深さ」を今こそ、見せてほしい。
（筆者は横浜国立大学准教授。元毎日新聞カイロ特派員。）
経済政策の失敗や停電の頻発などが我慢の限度を超えていたとはいえ、民主的な選挙で選ばれたモルシ大統領が軍部に政権を追われたことは、明らかな民主化の後退だ。クーデターの前段として、反モルシを掲げた大規模デモが続いていたが、現地報道によると民衆革命当時と比べると緊張感に欠けたものだったという。軍部は「民意」を口実に大規模デモを乗っ取る形で政権を奪還し、抵抗を続けるモルシ支持派を抑え込み、同胞団を「テロ組織」と名指しして弾圧強化に乗り出した。エジプトがかつてのアルジェリアの二の舞にならないか懸念も指摘されている。
アルジェリアでは91年、初の複数政党制による総選挙で、イスラム原理主義組織「イスラム救国戦線」（ＦＩＳ）が圧勝した。急激なイスラム化を恐れた軍首脳らが実権を掌握し、ＦＩＳを非合法化。反発したイスラム過激派によるテロが頻発し、７年間で10万人以上が犠牲になった。だがエジプトでは当分、武力衝突や政治的不安定が続くとしても、アルジェリアのように泥沼化はせず、中・長期的には軍部と同胞団の双方が収束に向けて動き出すと、私はみる。
同胞団はモスクを拠点とする地道な社会福祉活動で、国民の４割を占める貧困層の支持を得ている。しかし１９５２年、ナセルを中心とした軍の青年将校団がクーデターで政権を握った後、同胞団は内部分裂から急進派が暴走し、ナセル（当時大統領に就任）の暗殺未遂事件に関与するなどして非合法化され、半世紀にわたり徹底弾圧された苦い教訓を持つ。今回、一部不満分子が先鋭化したとしても、世論の大勢は「混乱や流血より生活の安定」を求めており、支持が広がる可能性はない。
軍部とて、クーデターや武力弾圧に対する欧米諸国、とりわけ米国の批判は無視できない。年間13～15億㌦にのぼる米国の軍事支援は不可欠だ。米国が同胞団を「テロ組織」と非難するエジプト軍部の主張に組みしない点にも注目したい。エジプトの地政学的重要性はアルジェリアとは比較にならず、事態がさらに悪化するなら、米国のみならず、国際社会が泥沼化阻止に全力を挙げるのは疑いない。加えて、温厚で「中庸」を好むエジプト人の国民性も見逃せない。
独裁色が強く、民衆の言論が事実上封殺されていたムバラク政権当時を知る私には、軍部や治安部隊に公然と異を唱える民衆デモの日常化は驚きだ。クーデターにつながった大規模デモは、若者組織「タマッルド（反乱）運動」が仕掛け、モルシ大統領辞任を求めた署名活動は２３００万人もの賛同を集めた。物が自由に言える社会の出現は、革命の「果実」といえた。
だが事態はムバラク政権時代にも増してメディアへの締め付けが進み、治安が悪化、警察国家となりかねない情勢だ。多くのエジプト人は急進的なイスラム国家を否定したにすぎず、軍政を求めたわけでもない。今、エジプトに不可欠なのは、立場の異なる者同士の広範な議論と、彼らが求める「柔らかなイスラムに基づく民主主義」モデルの確立だ。
暫定政権に注文したい。まずは非常事態令を解除、流血の弾圧を国民に謝罪すべきだ。その上で、同胞団を含めた国造りの議論を急ぐことが望まれる。仲の悪い者同士が口角、泡を飛ばしてけんかをしても、激しい殴り合いになると、「まあ、そのくらいにしておけ！」と長老が仲裁に入る。カイロの街角でたびたび目にした光景を思い出す。そんなエジプト流の「知恵」と「懐の深さ」を今こそ、見せてほしい。
（筆者は横浜国立大学准教授。元毎日新聞カイロ特派員。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟