Strategy and Tactics – The Perception Gap in the "2-plus-2" Talks between Japan and Russia
ISHIGOOKA Ken / Journalist
December 20, 2013
In early November, foreign and defense ministers from Japan and Russia met for their first "2-plus-2" talks. This was only the third of its kind for Japan apart from those with the United States and Australia, and as such the talks made headlines in the Japanese media, which hailed the occasion as a groundbreaking development in Japan-Russia relations using words like "unprecedented" and "historic." However, the talks did not generate such excitement on the Russian side, whose reaction was, if anything, tepid. There was clearly a gap in perception between Japan and Russia.
Russia sent Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Japan, who met with their counterparts Kishida Fumio and Onodera Itsunori for a total of about two hours and forty minutes including a working lunch. The talks were followed by the release of a commemorative photograph in which the four appeared smiling together, and an announcement that the 2-plus-2 talks were highly appreciated by both Japan and Russia. Foreign Minister Lavrov reportedly said "it opened up a new era," and Foreign Minister Kishida that "it will contribute to peace and stability."
Yet, the influential Russian newspaper Kommersant commented that the 2-plus-2 talks were being assessed differently by Moscow and Tokyo, and that it had been a case of "strange bedfellows." During the talks, Defense Minister Shoigu apparently voiced his concerns over Japan's participation in the global missile defense program promoted by the United States, while Foreign Minister Lavrov appealed for the creation of a new security system structured on non-military blocs.
The Japanese side responded by citing missiles as the only method of defense against Chinese military expansion and asked Russia to fall into line against China's "military expansionism." In the press conference held after the talks, Foreign Minister Lavrov said "Russia would not forge friendly relations with one party that would make an enemy out of another," stating emphatically that Russia cannot conform with Japan's confrontational stance against China.
He also brushed off questions concerning the territorial dispute by saying the issue was "not on the agenda" of the 2-plus-2 talks, effectively putting a damper on heightened Japanese expectations for the return of territory. According to the Russian media, Russian government sources had explained to the accompanying reporters that "a realistic solution lay not in the signing of a peace treaty, but rather in an agreement on neighborly cooperation." This suggests that Russia is not taking an active stance towards resolving the territorial dispute.
Then again, it is of course plausible that this did not reflect the true intentions of the Russian government, but was an attempt by its officials to manipulate the media. Moreover, opinion is divided within the Russian government itself. In contrast to the hardline approach taken by previous President Dmitry Medvedev, who stated that Russia would hand over "not a centimeter of territory" to Japan, the incumbent President Vladimir Putin has explained his desire for a "draw" with Japan. Meanwhile, the foreign ministry's approach is actually closer to that of Medvedev.
More significantly, there was a considerable difference between Japan and Russia in their approach towards the 2-plus-2 talks to begin with. How could Russia possibly take cooperative military action with Japan, which is in a military alliance with the United States and remains under its "nuclear umbrella"? An independent newspaper cast doubt on the issue, asking: Is there any reason why Russia should offer military cooperation? Put the other way, while there were no significant developments in the cooperative relationship, there were no contentious issues either, which made the talks a happy occasion for both sides to smile and shake hands.
The bigger question facing Japan and Russia is the presence of China lurking in the background of the 2-plus-2 talks. China's growing might poses a threat to both Japan and Russia. However, Russia does not contemplate pitting itself against China or making an enemy out of China. For Russia, growing military tensions with a country with which it shares borders stretching thousands of kilometers would be nothing but a nightmare. Realistically, Russia is in no position to follow Japan on a course that could antagonize China. Russia is taking a long-term strategy of appeasing and placating China to prevent the country from running out of control. And from the Russian perspective, Japan is only advocating what amounts to a short-term tactic without accounting for the future course of China or northeast Asia as a whole.
In mid-November, President Putin paid a round of visits to Vietnam and South Korea – countries whose relationships with China are somewhat sensitive – and held intensive negotiations. In particular, he took a large-scale political/economic delegation to South Korea, repeatedly holding talks that went beyond schedule that yielded a broad agreement on building a railroad across the Korean Peninsula, laying gas pipelines and constructing an electric power network. In addition, South Korea and Russia also agreed to introducing a no-visa program for short stays of up to 60 days from January next year.
President Park Geun-hye launched the concept of an "expanded Eurasia project" extending from Busan in Asia to Lisbon in Europe, alongside President Putin who appeared quite satisfied himself. The closer relationship between South Korea and Russia was no doubt backed by strategic consultations between the two countries regarding their response to China's rapidly expanding influence and the future shape of the Korean Peninsula.
Viewed against the top-level meetings that took place between South Korea and Russia, the 2-plus-2 talks between Japan and Russia seem to have been focused on formal discussions for building a framework rather than a strategic dialogue, resulting in less substance. From President Putin's perspective, Japan is offering no ideas on how it intends to deal with Russia or on its approach to shaping the future of northeast Asia, if it is indeed thinking about such issues at all. And until Japan comes up with a strategy on these important issues, it is perhaps best for Russia to dodge the subject by engaging in the 2-plus-2 talks.
Ishigooka Ken is a journalist and former special editor of the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper..
Russia sent Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Japan, who met with their counterparts Kishida Fumio and Onodera Itsunori for a total of about two hours and forty minutes including a working lunch. The talks were followed by the release of a commemorative photograph in which the four appeared smiling together, and an announcement that the 2-plus-2 talks were highly appreciated by both Japan and Russia. Foreign Minister Lavrov reportedly said "it opened up a new era," and Foreign Minister Kishida that "it will contribute to peace and stability."
Yet, the influential Russian newspaper Kommersant commented that the 2-plus-2 talks were being assessed differently by Moscow and Tokyo, and that it had been a case of "strange bedfellows." During the talks, Defense Minister Shoigu apparently voiced his concerns over Japan's participation in the global missile defense program promoted by the United States, while Foreign Minister Lavrov appealed for the creation of a new security system structured on non-military blocs.
The Japanese side responded by citing missiles as the only method of defense against Chinese military expansion and asked Russia to fall into line against China's "military expansionism." In the press conference held after the talks, Foreign Minister Lavrov said "Russia would not forge friendly relations with one party that would make an enemy out of another," stating emphatically that Russia cannot conform with Japan's confrontational stance against China.
He also brushed off questions concerning the territorial dispute by saying the issue was "not on the agenda" of the 2-plus-2 talks, effectively putting a damper on heightened Japanese expectations for the return of territory. According to the Russian media, Russian government sources had explained to the accompanying reporters that "a realistic solution lay not in the signing of a peace treaty, but rather in an agreement on neighborly cooperation." This suggests that Russia is not taking an active stance towards resolving the territorial dispute.
Then again, it is of course plausible that this did not reflect the true intentions of the Russian government, but was an attempt by its officials to manipulate the media. Moreover, opinion is divided within the Russian government itself. In contrast to the hardline approach taken by previous President Dmitry Medvedev, who stated that Russia would hand over "not a centimeter of territory" to Japan, the incumbent President Vladimir Putin has explained his desire for a "draw" with Japan. Meanwhile, the foreign ministry's approach is actually closer to that of Medvedev.
More significantly, there was a considerable difference between Japan and Russia in their approach towards the 2-plus-2 talks to begin with. How could Russia possibly take cooperative military action with Japan, which is in a military alliance with the United States and remains under its "nuclear umbrella"? An independent newspaper cast doubt on the issue, asking: Is there any reason why Russia should offer military cooperation? Put the other way, while there were no significant developments in the cooperative relationship, there were no contentious issues either, which made the talks a happy occasion for both sides to smile and shake hands.
The bigger question facing Japan and Russia is the presence of China lurking in the background of the 2-plus-2 talks. China's growing might poses a threat to both Japan and Russia. However, Russia does not contemplate pitting itself against China or making an enemy out of China. For Russia, growing military tensions with a country with which it shares borders stretching thousands of kilometers would be nothing but a nightmare. Realistically, Russia is in no position to follow Japan on a course that could antagonize China. Russia is taking a long-term strategy of appeasing and placating China to prevent the country from running out of control. And from the Russian perspective, Japan is only advocating what amounts to a short-term tactic without accounting for the future course of China or northeast Asia as a whole.
In mid-November, President Putin paid a round of visits to Vietnam and South Korea – countries whose relationships with China are somewhat sensitive – and held intensive negotiations. In particular, he took a large-scale political/economic delegation to South Korea, repeatedly holding talks that went beyond schedule that yielded a broad agreement on building a railroad across the Korean Peninsula, laying gas pipelines and constructing an electric power network. In addition, South Korea and Russia also agreed to introducing a no-visa program for short stays of up to 60 days from January next year.
President Park Geun-hye launched the concept of an "expanded Eurasia project" extending from Busan in Asia to Lisbon in Europe, alongside President Putin who appeared quite satisfied himself. The closer relationship between South Korea and Russia was no doubt backed by strategic consultations between the two countries regarding their response to China's rapidly expanding influence and the future shape of the Korean Peninsula.
Viewed against the top-level meetings that took place between South Korea and Russia, the 2-plus-2 talks between Japan and Russia seem to have been focused on formal discussions for building a framework rather than a strategic dialogue, resulting in less substance. From President Putin's perspective, Japan is offering no ideas on how it intends to deal with Russia or on its approach to shaping the future of northeast Asia, if it is indeed thinking about such issues at all. And until Japan comes up with a strategy on these important issues, it is perhaps best for Russia to dodge the subject by engaging in the 2-plus-2 talks.
Ishigooka Ken is a journalist and former special editor of the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper..
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
戦略と戦術、日露の間で理解が異なる「２＋２」協議
石郷岡 健 / ジャーナリスト
2013年 12月 20日
日本とロシアは11月初め、外務・防衛閣僚会議（いわゆる「２＋２」協議）を初めて開いた。日本にとっては、米国、豪州に次ぐ、第三番目の「２＋２」協議の設置であり、日本のマスコミは「異例」「歴史的」との言葉を使いながら、日露関係の画期的な進展があったとの大きな見出しを掲げた。しかし、ロシア側は日本のような騒ぎにはなっておらず、どちらかというと冷ややかな態度だった。日露双方の理解には大きなずれがあったと言わざるを得ない。
ロシアからはラヴロフ外相、ショイグ国防相が来日し、日本側の岸田外相、小野寺防衛相とワーキング・ランチを加えて、約２時間40分間話し合いを行ったという。会談後、笑みを浮かべる４人の記念写真が公表され、日露双方は「２＋２」協議を高く評価したと発表された。ラヴロフ外相は「新しい時代が切り開かれた」と発言し、岸田外相は「平和と安定のために寄与する」と語ったという。
しかし、ロシアの有力紙「コメルサント」は、モスクワと東京では「２＋２」協議の評価が違い、呉越同舟の話し合いだったと論評した。ショイグ国防相は米国が進める地球規模のミサイル防衛計画に、日本が参加していくことに懸念を表明し、ラヴロフ外相は非軍事ブロック構造による新しい安全保障制度の構築を訴えたとされる。
これに対し、日本側は中国の軍事力増大が進むなかで、ミサイル防衛は唯一の防衛手段であり、中国の“軍国主義化”への対応で共同歩調を求めたという。ラヴロフ外相は会談後の記者会見で「われわれは誰かに敵対するために誰かと友好関係を構築するというようなことは決してしない」と発言し、中国と対立するような日本の立場には同調できないとの考えを強く打ち出した。
領土問題についても、「（「２＋２」協議の）議題になっていない」と素っ気なく回答し、日本側で高まっている領土返還への期待に水をかけた。ロシアのマスコミによれば、ロシア政府筋は同行記者団に「現実的な解決案は平和条約の締結ではなく、善隣友好協力の枠組み合意だろう」と説明したという。領土問題の積極的な解決への姿勢はないということになる。
勿論、政府側関係者のマスコミ操作ということも考えられ、ロシア政府の本音ではないかもしれない。また、前任のメドヴェージェフ前大統領が「領土は一センチたりとも渡さない」と強硬な発言を行ったのに対し、プーチン現大統領は「“引き分け”にしたい」と説明しており、ロシア政府内部の考え方は、必ずしも一致していない。そして、外務省の考え方はメドヴェージェフ前大統領に近いのが実態だ。
それよりも「２＋２」協議に対する考え方に、そもそも日露間に大きな差があった。米国と軍事同盟を結び、米国の「核の傘の下」に入っている日本と、ロシアはどのような軍事協力・行動があり得るのだろうか。ロシアの独立新聞は「一体、何のために（軍事協力するのか）？」と疑問を投げかけた。逆にいうと、大きな協力関係の発展もなく、重要な対立点もないので、双方にとってはハッピーな協議の場であり、お互いに笑みを浮かべながら握手ができたということかもしれない。
日露の間に横たわるもっとも大きな問題は、「２＋２」協議の背景に浮かび上がる中国の姿である。日露双方とも中国の強大化は脅威だ。しかし、ロシアは中国と敵対し、中国と対立することは考えていない。数千㌔の国境線を持つロシアにとって、中国との軍事緊張は悪夢以外の何物でもない。中国敵視にもつながる日本についていけないのが実情だ。強大化する中国をなだめすかしながら、暴走をさせないという長期戦略であり、ロシアから見ると、日本は将来の中国および東北アジアの姿を考えていない、短期的な戦術しか叫んでいないということになる。
プーチン大統領は11月中旬、中国と微妙な関係にあるベトナムと韓国を歴訪し、突っ込んだ話し合いをした。特に、韓国では政治・経済の大型代表団を連れ、予定を超えた長時間の話し合いを繰り返し、朝鮮半島の縦断鉄道建設、ガスパイプライン敷設、電力網の建設などで大筋合意を行っている。さらに、韓露は来年１月から短期滞在（60日間）のノー・ビザ制度の導入を決めた。
朴槿恵大統領は釜山（アジア）からリスボン（欧州）までの「拡大ユーラシア計画構想」を打ち上げ、プーチン大統領も満足気な表情だった。韓露の接近の裏には、急ピッチに強大化する中国に、どう対応するのか、朝鮮半島をどうするのか、双方の戦略協議があったといってもよい。
韓露首脳会談を通して見ると、日露の「２＋２」協議は、形式的な枠組み作りの話が中心で、戦略対話がなく、中身が薄いと言わざるを得ない。プーチン大統領から見れば、日本はロシアとどう付き合うつもりなのか、東北アジアの将来の構図をどう考えるのか、何も出てこない（もしくは何も考えていない）。これら重要問題の戦略が出てくるまでは、「２＋２」協議でお茶を濁すしかないということになる。
（筆者は毎日新聞社専門編集委員。）
ロシアからはラヴロフ外相、ショイグ国防相が来日し、日本側の岸田外相、小野寺防衛相とワーキング・ランチを加えて、約２時間40分間話し合いを行ったという。会談後、笑みを浮かべる４人の記念写真が公表され、日露双方は「２＋２」協議を高く評価したと発表された。ラヴロフ外相は「新しい時代が切り開かれた」と発言し、岸田外相は「平和と安定のために寄与する」と語ったという。
しかし、ロシアの有力紙「コメルサント」は、モスクワと東京では「２＋２」協議の評価が違い、呉越同舟の話し合いだったと論評した。ショイグ国防相は米国が進める地球規模のミサイル防衛計画に、日本が参加していくことに懸念を表明し、ラヴロフ外相は非軍事ブロック構造による新しい安全保障制度の構築を訴えたとされる。
これに対し、日本側は中国の軍事力増大が進むなかで、ミサイル防衛は唯一の防衛手段であり、中国の“軍国主義化”への対応で共同歩調を求めたという。ラヴロフ外相は会談後の記者会見で「われわれは誰かに敵対するために誰かと友好関係を構築するというようなことは決してしない」と発言し、中国と対立するような日本の立場には同調できないとの考えを強く打ち出した。
領土問題についても、「（「２＋２」協議の）議題になっていない」と素っ気なく回答し、日本側で高まっている領土返還への期待に水をかけた。ロシアのマスコミによれば、ロシア政府筋は同行記者団に「現実的な解決案は平和条約の締結ではなく、善隣友好協力の枠組み合意だろう」と説明したという。領土問題の積極的な解決への姿勢はないということになる。
勿論、政府側関係者のマスコミ操作ということも考えられ、ロシア政府の本音ではないかもしれない。また、前任のメドヴェージェフ前大統領が「領土は一センチたりとも渡さない」と強硬な発言を行ったのに対し、プーチン現大統領は「“引き分け”にしたい」と説明しており、ロシア政府内部の考え方は、必ずしも一致していない。そして、外務省の考え方はメドヴェージェフ前大統領に近いのが実態だ。
それよりも「２＋２」協議に対する考え方に、そもそも日露間に大きな差があった。米国と軍事同盟を結び、米国の「核の傘の下」に入っている日本と、ロシアはどのような軍事協力・行動があり得るのだろうか。ロシアの独立新聞は「一体、何のために（軍事協力するのか）？」と疑問を投げかけた。逆にいうと、大きな協力関係の発展もなく、重要な対立点もないので、双方にとってはハッピーな協議の場であり、お互いに笑みを浮かべながら握手ができたということかもしれない。
日露の間に横たわるもっとも大きな問題は、「２＋２」協議の背景に浮かび上がる中国の姿である。日露双方とも中国の強大化は脅威だ。しかし、ロシアは中国と敵対し、中国と対立することは考えていない。数千㌔の国境線を持つロシアにとって、中国との軍事緊張は悪夢以外の何物でもない。中国敵視にもつながる日本についていけないのが実情だ。強大化する中国をなだめすかしながら、暴走をさせないという長期戦略であり、ロシアから見ると、日本は将来の中国および東北アジアの姿を考えていない、短期的な戦術しか叫んでいないということになる。
プーチン大統領は11月中旬、中国と微妙な関係にあるベトナムと韓国を歴訪し、突っ込んだ話し合いをした。特に、韓国では政治・経済の大型代表団を連れ、予定を超えた長時間の話し合いを繰り返し、朝鮮半島の縦断鉄道建設、ガスパイプライン敷設、電力網の建設などで大筋合意を行っている。さらに、韓露は来年１月から短期滞在（60日間）のノー・ビザ制度の導入を決めた。
朴槿恵大統領は釜山（アジア）からリスボン（欧州）までの「拡大ユーラシア計画構想」を打ち上げ、プーチン大統領も満足気な表情だった。韓露の接近の裏には、急ピッチに強大化する中国に、どう対応するのか、朝鮮半島をどうするのか、双方の戦略協議があったといってもよい。
韓露首脳会談を通して見ると、日露の「２＋２」協議は、形式的な枠組み作りの話が中心で、戦略対話がなく、中身が薄いと言わざるを得ない。プーチン大統領から見れば、日本はロシアとどう付き合うつもりなのか、東北アジアの将来の構図をどう考えるのか、何も出てこない（もしくは何も考えていない）。これら重要問題の戦略が出てくるまでは、「２＋２」協議でお茶を濁すしかないということになる。
（筆者は毎日新聞社専門編集委員。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟