Japan's Response to the Resurgence of Geopolitical Ambitions and Challenges to the Global Order
TOMODA Seki / Former Director, Japan Institute of International Affairs
March 3, 2015
In this milestone year that marks the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, the international situation is rife with premonitions of a further decline in global stability. How should Japan prepare for this rise in instability?
There are two key drivers that are eroding world stability. First, there are the geopolitical ambitions of several major powers that are beginning to erupt, having been freed from inhibitions that had held them in check for the past seventy years. Typical examples include Russia's outright intervention in Ukrainian affairs, which began with its recapturing of the Crimean Peninsula, and China's maritime advances, which are no less blatant.
Then there are the challenges being made against the international order developed by the West after World War II, namely led by the United States. Here, in addition to Russia and China, the list of challengers includes various Islamic extremist groups, whose principles of behavior consist of terrorism and violence. Yet, there is no doubt that the foremost challenger is China, which has emerged as the second largest economic power in the world and remains on course towards a rapid expansion in its military might.
In 2014, China embarked on its quest to build a new framework for international finance that vies with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. It is also active in the areas of international politics and national security, with the apparent goal of getting the BRICs countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – to assume the role of "builders of an international system and international security order," to borrow Xi Jinping's words.
While containing the geopolitical ambitions of major powers remains the pressing global issue, it would be important over the long term to prevent the existing international order from hollowing out, and to address China's grand strategic goal of building an alternative global order led by itself.
Japan must make a committed effort to preserve the existing international order along with the United States and as many countries in the international community that trust in the current order. We must do so because the global order that was created after World War II is founded on the universal values of democracy and freedom, rule of law and respect for human rights, and Japan stands to benefit from its continuation.
These values were won by western nations as a result of much bloodshed over hundreds of years, through religious reform and wars, battles against despotic rulers, and struggles to establish the dignity of individual human beings. In effect, these values signify a treasure for all mankind that transcends the geographical boundaries of the West. And Japan – following its defeat in World War II that marked a turning point – has become one of the most fervent believers of these universal values.
As yet, the nature of the new order led by China is shrouded in uncertainty. However, this is a country that has shunned pluralism since its founding in 1949, which stubbornly maintains an authoritarian system of one-party rule to this day. And although it has begun to espouse the "rule of law" in recent years, the "rule of men" has been woven into its social fabric as a tradition spanning thousands of years. It is therefore difficult to imagine China coming up with principles that surpass the values represented by the existing international order.
What concrete steps could Japan take to sustain this order? The escalation in geopolitical conflicts and challenges to the existing global order have occurred against the backdrop of diminishing U.S. influence, which had once been an overwhelming force in the world. Thus the most important step for Japan would be to contribute to reinforcing the U.S. position as the pillar of the existing global order.
And the Asia-Pacific region is where Japan can demonstrate greater impact through its cooperation. To strengthen the U.S. presence in this region, it is essential to enact the TPP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership). As it happens, the Abe administration has succeeded in bolstering its political base by winning the general election that took place in last December. The government must seize the moment and devote every effort to suppress the forces of resistance, and work alongside the United States to secure an agreement on TPP.
Europe naturally has a crucial role to play in maintaining the current international order. However, for the time being the European Union will be forced to devote much of its resources to resolving the political, financial and economic issues within the region. That places a relatively heavy burden on the United States and Japan. The Abe administration must proceed with a firm awareness of this responsibility.
Seki Tomoda is former Director of the Japan Institute of International Affairs.
There are two key drivers that are eroding world stability. First, there are the geopolitical ambitions of several major powers that are beginning to erupt, having been freed from inhibitions that had held them in check for the past seventy years. Typical examples include Russia's outright intervention in Ukrainian affairs, which began with its recapturing of the Crimean Peninsula, and China's maritime advances, which are no less blatant.
Then there are the challenges being made against the international order developed by the West after World War II, namely led by the United States. Here, in addition to Russia and China, the list of challengers includes various Islamic extremist groups, whose principles of behavior consist of terrorism and violence. Yet, there is no doubt that the foremost challenger is China, which has emerged as the second largest economic power in the world and remains on course towards a rapid expansion in its military might.
In 2014, China embarked on its quest to build a new framework for international finance that vies with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. It is also active in the areas of international politics and national security, with the apparent goal of getting the BRICs countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – to assume the role of "builders of an international system and international security order," to borrow Xi Jinping's words.
While containing the geopolitical ambitions of major powers remains the pressing global issue, it would be important over the long term to prevent the existing international order from hollowing out, and to address China's grand strategic goal of building an alternative global order led by itself.
Japan must make a committed effort to preserve the existing international order along with the United States and as many countries in the international community that trust in the current order. We must do so because the global order that was created after World War II is founded on the universal values of democracy and freedom, rule of law and respect for human rights, and Japan stands to benefit from its continuation.
These values were won by western nations as a result of much bloodshed over hundreds of years, through religious reform and wars, battles against despotic rulers, and struggles to establish the dignity of individual human beings. In effect, these values signify a treasure for all mankind that transcends the geographical boundaries of the West. And Japan – following its defeat in World War II that marked a turning point – has become one of the most fervent believers of these universal values.
As yet, the nature of the new order led by China is shrouded in uncertainty. However, this is a country that has shunned pluralism since its founding in 1949, which stubbornly maintains an authoritarian system of one-party rule to this day. And although it has begun to espouse the "rule of law" in recent years, the "rule of men" has been woven into its social fabric as a tradition spanning thousands of years. It is therefore difficult to imagine China coming up with principles that surpass the values represented by the existing international order.
What concrete steps could Japan take to sustain this order? The escalation in geopolitical conflicts and challenges to the existing global order have occurred against the backdrop of diminishing U.S. influence, which had once been an overwhelming force in the world. Thus the most important step for Japan would be to contribute to reinforcing the U.S. position as the pillar of the existing global order.
And the Asia-Pacific region is where Japan can demonstrate greater impact through its cooperation. To strengthen the U.S. presence in this region, it is essential to enact the TPP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership). As it happens, the Abe administration has succeeded in bolstering its political base by winning the general election that took place in last December. The government must seize the moment and devote every effort to suppress the forces of resistance, and work alongside the United States to secure an agreement on TPP.
Europe naturally has a crucial role to play in maintaining the current international order. However, for the time being the European Union will be forced to devote much of its resources to resolving the political, financial and economic issues within the region. That places a relatively heavy burden on the United States and Japan. The Abe administration must proceed with a firm awareness of this responsibility.
Seki Tomoda is former Director of the Japan Institute of International Affairs.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
地政学の復権と国際秩序への挑戦－日本の対応を考える
友田 錫 / 元日本国際問題研究所所長
2015年 3月 3日
戦後70年の節目にあたる2015年の国際情勢は、世界のいっそうの不安定化を予感させる。日本はこの不安定化に、どう備えたらよいのだろうか。
世界を不安定にさせている原動力は二つある。一つは、70年間抑えられていた一部の大国の地政学的な野心が、抑制から解き放たれて噴出しつつあること。クリミヤ半島奪回にはじまるロシアの露骨なウクライナへの介入や、中国のこれまた露骨な海洋進出がその典型である。
もう一つは、戦後構築された欧米、とりわけ米国主導の国際秩序に対する挑戦だ。挑戦者にはこのロシアと中国に加えて、テロと暴力を行動原理とする種々のイスラム過激勢力が顔を連ねている。だが挑戦者の筆頭が、世界第二位の経済大国に躍り出て、しかも軍事力の急速な拡大を続けている中国であることは疑いない。
中国は2014年に、国際金融の分野で世界銀行や国際通貨基金の向こうを張る新たな枠組みづくりに乗り出した。政治・安全保障の面でも、ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国から成るBRICｓに、習近平のことばを借りれば「国際体制と国際安全保障秩序の建設者」の役割をになわせることを目指しているように見える。
世界にとって喫緊の課題は大国の地政学的な野心を抑えこむことだが、長期的には、既存の国際秩序の空洞化、それに代わる自国主導の新秩序構築という中国の遠大な戦略目標に対処することが重要であろう。
日本は既存の国際秩序を守るために、米国をはじめこの秩序を善しとする国際社会のできるだけ多くの国とともに、力をつくさなければならない。なぜなら、戦後構築されたこの国際秩序が、民主主義と自由、法の支配、人権尊重という普遍的な価値を土台につくられたものであり、その存続が日本にとっても利益だからである。
これらの価値は、欧米が数百年をかけて、あるいは宗教改革や宗教戦争、絶対王政との戦い、あるいは個人の尊厳の確立をめざした闘争で、多くの血を流して克ち取ったものである。欧米という地理的な枠を超えて人類全体の財産といってもよい。日本も、第二次世界大戦での敗北を転機として、この普遍的な価値のもっとも熱心な信奉国のひとつとなった。
中国主導の新しい秩序がどのような性格のものになるのかは未知数である。しかし、この国が1949年の建国以来、複数主義を退けていまなお権威主義的な一党独裁主義を断固として貫いていること、最近にわかに「法治」をうたうようになったとはいえ、何千年にもわたる「人治」の伝統が沁みついていることから考えると、既存の国際秩序の価値観を超える理念を打ち出せるとは考え難い。
日本は、いまの国際秩序の存続のために、具体的にどのような手立てを講じたらよいのだろうか。
地政学的争いの激化や国際秩序への挑戦の背景には、かつて圧倒的だった世界での米国の影響力の減衰があった。そのことを考えると、最も重要なのは、既存の国際秩序の大黒柱、米国の立場の再強化に貢献することである。
日本の協力がより大きな効果を発揮できる舞台はアジア太平洋であろう。米国がこの地域で存在感を強めるためには、TPP（環太平洋戦略的経済連携協定）の成立が必須である。たまたま昨年12月の総選挙を通じて政権基盤の強化に成功した安倍政権は、いまこそ抵抗勢力を抑え、米国とともにTPPの成立に全力を傾注しなければならない。
いまの国際秩序を維持する上で、もちろんヨーロッパの貢献も欠かせない。しかし当面EU（欧州連合）は、域内における政治、金融、経済上の問題の解決に多くの精力を割かねばならないだろう。したがって、米国と日本の役割の比重はより大きいはずである。その認識を、安倍政権はしっかり心に刻んでおく必要がある。
（筆者は元日本国際問題研究所長）
世界を不安定にさせている原動力は二つある。一つは、70年間抑えられていた一部の大国の地政学的な野心が、抑制から解き放たれて噴出しつつあること。クリミヤ半島奪回にはじまるロシアの露骨なウクライナへの介入や、中国のこれまた露骨な海洋進出がその典型である。
もう一つは、戦後構築された欧米、とりわけ米国主導の国際秩序に対する挑戦だ。挑戦者にはこのロシアと中国に加えて、テロと暴力を行動原理とする種々のイスラム過激勢力が顔を連ねている。だが挑戦者の筆頭が、世界第二位の経済大国に躍り出て、しかも軍事力の急速な拡大を続けている中国であることは疑いない。
中国は2014年に、国際金融の分野で世界銀行や国際通貨基金の向こうを張る新たな枠組みづくりに乗り出した。政治・安全保障の面でも、ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国から成るBRICｓに、習近平のことばを借りれば「国際体制と国際安全保障秩序の建設者」の役割をになわせることを目指しているように見える。
世界にとって喫緊の課題は大国の地政学的な野心を抑えこむことだが、長期的には、既存の国際秩序の空洞化、それに代わる自国主導の新秩序構築という中国の遠大な戦略目標に対処することが重要であろう。
日本は既存の国際秩序を守るために、米国をはじめこの秩序を善しとする国際社会のできるだけ多くの国とともに、力をつくさなければならない。なぜなら、戦後構築されたこの国際秩序が、民主主義と自由、法の支配、人権尊重という普遍的な価値を土台につくられたものであり、その存続が日本にとっても利益だからである。
これらの価値は、欧米が数百年をかけて、あるいは宗教改革や宗教戦争、絶対王政との戦い、あるいは個人の尊厳の確立をめざした闘争で、多くの血を流して克ち取ったものである。欧米という地理的な枠を超えて人類全体の財産といってもよい。日本も、第二次世界大戦での敗北を転機として、この普遍的な価値のもっとも熱心な信奉国のひとつとなった。
中国主導の新しい秩序がどのような性格のものになるのかは未知数である。しかし、この国が1949年の建国以来、複数主義を退けていまなお権威主義的な一党独裁主義を断固として貫いていること、最近にわかに「法治」をうたうようになったとはいえ、何千年にもわたる「人治」の伝統が沁みついていることから考えると、既存の国際秩序の価値観を超える理念を打ち出せるとは考え難い。
日本は、いまの国際秩序の存続のために、具体的にどのような手立てを講じたらよいのだろうか。
地政学的争いの激化や国際秩序への挑戦の背景には、かつて圧倒的だった世界での米国の影響力の減衰があった。そのことを考えると、最も重要なのは、既存の国際秩序の大黒柱、米国の立場の再強化に貢献することである。
日本の協力がより大きな効果を発揮できる舞台はアジア太平洋であろう。米国がこの地域で存在感を強めるためには、TPP（環太平洋戦略的経済連携協定）の成立が必須である。たまたま昨年12月の総選挙を通じて政権基盤の強化に成功した安倍政権は、いまこそ抵抗勢力を抑え、米国とともにTPPの成立に全力を傾注しなければならない。
いまの国際秩序を維持する上で、もちろんヨーロッパの貢献も欠かせない。しかし当面EU（欧州連合）は、域内における政治、金融、経済上の問題の解決に多くの精力を割かねばならないだろう。したがって、米国と日本の役割の比重はより大きいはずである。その認識を、安倍政権はしっかり心に刻んでおく必要がある。
（筆者は元日本国際問題研究所長）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟