Reaffirming the High Road of Capitalism and Democracy – Japan's Responsibility as the Chair of the Next G7 Summit Meeting
KAWATO Akio / Japan’s Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
July 15, 2015
In early July, the BRICS summit and a meeting of leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization were held in Ufa, Russia. The advent of a "multipolar world" and "the era of BRICS" have been much trumpeted since the financial crisis in 2008, but with the exception of India, the BRICS countries have seen their growth rates fall in recent years. Meanwhile, the industrialized countries are poised for a new economic growth, having overcome the turbulence after the financial crisis in 2008.
It is against this backdrop that Japan will chair the G7 summit meeting next year. Discussions on the agenda will begin any time now. Japan should make the most of this opportunity as the coordinator of this major event.
These days, the summit agendas have become mediocre or immaterial; they fail to excite. Yet, the world today is at a major crossroads, in terms of both politics and the economy. Summit participants must seek out common ground on basic issues to determine the future direction of the world and redefine the role played by developed countries in such a world.
We should start by reassessing our approach to the skepticism with which capitalism has been regarded since the global financial crisis of 2008, doubts about the viability of the market economy caused by the rise of China, whose economy is centered on state enterprises, and the critical state of democracy in developed countries, where governance has declined along with social diversification and economic stagnation.
The global financial crisis placed the spotlight on the G20 and BRICS as the new lead players of the global economy. However, the G20 is too numerous and tends toward internal conflict between the developed nations and the BRICS, making decision-making difficult. Apart from India, which has done fairly well, the economies of the BRICS countries have clearly reached a standstill, due to structural problems inherent in the economy and society of these countries, such as excessive intervention by the state or political parties and corruption.
Meanwhile, the old lineup of "capitalist developed nations" still possess the seeds of economic growth – namely, the capital, technology and management know-how. Global direct investment reached US$1.45 trillion in 2013, with companies in developed countries accounting for 61%. While their share may have fallen from 75% in 2007, quality investments accompanied by the transfer of technology and management know-how remain the exclusive territory of companies in developed countries.
Among Chinese companies, textile and garment firms, along with electric appliance maker Haier and ICT provider Huawei, have been bolstering overseas production. Yet, companies from developed countries still dominate in areas of advanced technology. iPad may be assembled in China, but the breakdown of its price tag is structured so that only 2% of it is doled out to Chinese workers, while the rest goes to Apple's head office and to paying components manufacturers and outsourcing logistics companies in countries such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan
Next, we should discard any doubts about state-controlled economies such as those of China or Russia having an advantage over market economies. While it is widely known that Russia's economic growth was brought about by surging oil prices, the Chinese economy, often hailed as a "miracle," is still dependent on foreign companies for 50% of its exports. Direct investment from abroad and the trade surplus generated by such investment has continued to exceed $400 billion each year, and is further inflated by infrastructure investment to orchestrate the country's "rapid growth." In other words, Russia and China have not achieved growth because they manage a state-controlled economy, but have done so despite that fact, thanks to the windfall from external factors.
On the other hand, the market economy and democracy model of developed countries is also saddled with structural problems. Wealth is unevenly distributed and the income gap is remarkably wide – most prominently in the United States, and this has hampered further growth in consumption. The United States, Europe and Japan have all sought to stimulate their economies through excessive monetary easing, but this may lead to another burst of the bubble that could take down the global economy with it.
There is another problem. Developed countries have come under pressure to implement significant reforms on their system of representative democracy based on political parties, as their societies become more diversified and their citizens want to have their opinions directly adopted by the government without intermediaries.
Meanwhile, the condescending attitude with which developed countries have sought to force democracy onto developing countries tends to cause confusion without breaking down the longstanding structure of vested interests in those countries. Democracy cannot be realized without economic development and creation of sound middle class.
These would be all issues to be discussed not only at the summit meetings of major countries but also by other organizations with more participating countries, such as the OECD.
Next year's summit meeting will be the last for U.S. President Barack Obama, but there is still time left for the leaders of Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. They can afford to discuss the issues at length. And if they succeed in getting the Ukraine situation under control, bringing Russia back into the fold will also be on the agenda. As a general rule, Japan holds general elections during the same year as it chairs a summit meeting, so this would be an excellent opportunity for Prime Minister Abe Shinzo to demonstrate his competence.
Akio Kawato is Japan’s former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. A partially edited version of this article was published by the Japanese edition of Newsweek on June 16, 2015..
It is against this backdrop that Japan will chair the G7 summit meeting next year. Discussions on the agenda will begin any time now. Japan should make the most of this opportunity as the coordinator of this major event.
These days, the summit agendas have become mediocre or immaterial; they fail to excite. Yet, the world today is at a major crossroads, in terms of both politics and the economy. Summit participants must seek out common ground on basic issues to determine the future direction of the world and redefine the role played by developed countries in such a world.
We should start by reassessing our approach to the skepticism with which capitalism has been regarded since the global financial crisis of 2008, doubts about the viability of the market economy caused by the rise of China, whose economy is centered on state enterprises, and the critical state of democracy in developed countries, where governance has declined along with social diversification and economic stagnation.
The global financial crisis placed the spotlight on the G20 and BRICS as the new lead players of the global economy. However, the G20 is too numerous and tends toward internal conflict between the developed nations and the BRICS, making decision-making difficult. Apart from India, which has done fairly well, the economies of the BRICS countries have clearly reached a standstill, due to structural problems inherent in the economy and society of these countries, such as excessive intervention by the state or political parties and corruption.
Meanwhile, the old lineup of "capitalist developed nations" still possess the seeds of economic growth – namely, the capital, technology and management know-how. Global direct investment reached US$1.45 trillion in 2013, with companies in developed countries accounting for 61%. While their share may have fallen from 75% in 2007, quality investments accompanied by the transfer of technology and management know-how remain the exclusive territory of companies in developed countries.
Among Chinese companies, textile and garment firms, along with electric appliance maker Haier and ICT provider Huawei, have been bolstering overseas production. Yet, companies from developed countries still dominate in areas of advanced technology. iPad may be assembled in China, but the breakdown of its price tag is structured so that only 2% of it is doled out to Chinese workers, while the rest goes to Apple's head office and to paying components manufacturers and outsourcing logistics companies in countries such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan
Next, we should discard any doubts about state-controlled economies such as those of China or Russia having an advantage over market economies. While it is widely known that Russia's economic growth was brought about by surging oil prices, the Chinese economy, often hailed as a "miracle," is still dependent on foreign companies for 50% of its exports. Direct investment from abroad and the trade surplus generated by such investment has continued to exceed $400 billion each year, and is further inflated by infrastructure investment to orchestrate the country's "rapid growth." In other words, Russia and China have not achieved growth because they manage a state-controlled economy, but have done so despite that fact, thanks to the windfall from external factors.
On the other hand, the market economy and democracy model of developed countries is also saddled with structural problems. Wealth is unevenly distributed and the income gap is remarkably wide – most prominently in the United States, and this has hampered further growth in consumption. The United States, Europe and Japan have all sought to stimulate their economies through excessive monetary easing, but this may lead to another burst of the bubble that could take down the global economy with it.
There is another problem. Developed countries have come under pressure to implement significant reforms on their system of representative democracy based on political parties, as their societies become more diversified and their citizens want to have their opinions directly adopted by the government without intermediaries.
Meanwhile, the condescending attitude with which developed countries have sought to force democracy onto developing countries tends to cause confusion without breaking down the longstanding structure of vested interests in those countries. Democracy cannot be realized without economic development and creation of sound middle class.
These would be all issues to be discussed not only at the summit meetings of major countries but also by other organizations with more participating countries, such as the OECD.
Next year's summit meeting will be the last for U.S. President Barack Obama, but there is still time left for the leaders of Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. They can afford to discuss the issues at length. And if they succeed in getting the Ukraine situation under control, bringing Russia back into the fold will also be on the agenda. As a general rule, Japan holds general elections during the same year as it chairs a summit meeting, so this would be an excellent opportunity for Prime Minister Abe Shinzo to demonstrate his competence.
Akio Kawato is Japan’s former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. A partially edited version of this article was published by the Japanese edition of Newsweek on June 16, 2015..
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
資本主義・民主主義の王道を確認せよ ――次期主要国首脳会議議長としての日本の責務――
河東哲夫 / 元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼駐タジキスタン大使
2015年 7月 15日
７月初め、ロシアのウファでＢＲＩＣＳ首脳会議、上海協力機構首脳会議が開かれた。２００８年金融危機以来、「世界の多極化」や「ＢＲＩＣＳの時代の到来」が喧伝されているが、ＢＲＩＣＳ諸国はインドを除いて、最近成長率を低下させている。米国の経済は回復基調を強め、先進国は再び求心力を高めつつある。そのような中、来年は日本がＧ７、先進国首脳会議の議長国となる。そろそろ議題の検討も始まるだろう。折角の大舞台の取りまとめ役となる、このチャンスを活用するべきだ。
この頃のサミットは議題が平凡、あるいは小粒で、ロマンを感じない。しかし今の世界は政治・経済とも大きな境目にある。サミット参加諸国は基本的な認識をすり合わせ、今後のあり得べき方向、そしてその中における先進国の役割をまとめ直すことが求められている。
まず、２００８年の世界金融危機で生じた資本主義への疑念、国営企業中心の中国が台頭したことで生じた市場経済への疑念、そして社会の多様化と経済の停滞によってガバナンスが低下した先進国の民主主義の危機について、認識を整理しておく必要がある。
世界金融危機で、Ｇ20、あるいはＢＲＩＣＳが世界経済の新たな主人公としてもてはやされるようになったが、Ｇ20は数が多すぎる上に、内部で先進諸国とＢＲＩＣＳ諸国が対立気味で、ものごとが決まらない。ＢＲＩＣＳ諸国の経済はインドがやや良いのを除いていずれも足踏みが顕著だが、それはこれら諸国の経済・社会に国家や党の過度の介入や腐敗など、構造的な問題があるからである。
他方、老舗の「資本主義先進諸国」は、経済成長をもたらす種、つまり資本と技術と経営ノウハウを相変わらず持っている。２０１３年世界の直接投資は１兆４５００億ドルにのぼり、このうち61％は先進諸国企業によるものである。２００７年の75％に比べると、先進国企業の比重は落ちたが、それでも技術と経営ノウハウの移植を伴う良質の投資は、先進国企業の独壇場である。
中国企業は繊維・縫製、あるいは電機のＨＡＩＥＲ、通信のＨＵＡＷＥＩなどが海外生産を増やしているが、先端技術の分野はまだ先進国企業の独壇場である。ｉＰａｄは中国で組み立てられているが、その販売価格５００ドルのうち、中国の労働者が得る分は僅か８ドル、その他はアップル本社、韓国、台湾、日本等の部品企業、流通業等が得るという構造になっている 。
次に、市場経済より中国やロシアのような国家統制経済の方が強いのではないかという疑念は、さっぱりと捨てるべきである。ロシア経済の成長が原油価格急騰でもたらされたことは周知の事実だが、奇跡ともてはやされる中国経済も、実は今でも輸出の50％を外資系企業が行っている。外国からの直接投資、そしてそれがもたらす貿易黒字の合計は今でも年間四千億ドルを越え、それがインフラ投資で膨らまされて「高度成長」を演出しているのである。つまりロシア、中国は国家統制経済であるが故に成長できたのではなく、統制経済であるにもかかわらず、外部要因によって棚ボタ的成長を遂げたのである。
一方、先進諸国の市場経済・民主主義モデルの方も、構造的問題を抱えている。米国で顕著だが、富の偏在・格差が甚だしく、それは消費の増大を妨げている。米欧日とも過度の金融緩和で景気刺激をしているが、それはまたバブルの崩壊を招いて世界経済をどん底に落としかねない。ここでは、格差是正、そして投機行動の抑制が必要なのである。
もう一つ、先進国では政党をベースとした代議制民主主義が、社会の多様化と国民の権利意識の向上で、大幅な立て直しを迫られている。また、先進国が途上国に上から目線で民主主義を押し付けるやり方も、情勢を混乱させただけで古い利権構造を打破するに至っていないという問題を抱えている。
これらの問題は、主要国首脳会議だけでなく、ＯＥＣＤなど、より多くの国が参加する組織で議論していくのが適当だろう。
来年の主要国首脳会議は、オバマ大統領にとっては最後だが、日、独、英、仏の首脳はまだ先がある。じっくりと議論ができる。そしてウクライナ問題を収拾できれば、ロシアの復帰も議論の対象となる。日本では、主要国首脳会議を主催する年には総選挙があるのが通例なので、安倍首相も腕の振るいどころだ。
（筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼駐タジキスタン大使 本稿の一部修正したものがニューズウィーク日本版６月１６日号に掲載された。）
この頃のサミットは議題が平凡、あるいは小粒で、ロマンを感じない。しかし今の世界は政治・経済とも大きな境目にある。サミット参加諸国は基本的な認識をすり合わせ、今後のあり得べき方向、そしてその中における先進国の役割をまとめ直すことが求められている。
まず、２００８年の世界金融危機で生じた資本主義への疑念、国営企業中心の中国が台頭したことで生じた市場経済への疑念、そして社会の多様化と経済の停滞によってガバナンスが低下した先進国の民主主義の危機について、認識を整理しておく必要がある。
世界金融危機で、Ｇ20、あるいはＢＲＩＣＳが世界経済の新たな主人公としてもてはやされるようになったが、Ｇ20は数が多すぎる上に、内部で先進諸国とＢＲＩＣＳ諸国が対立気味で、ものごとが決まらない。ＢＲＩＣＳ諸国の経済はインドがやや良いのを除いていずれも足踏みが顕著だが、それはこれら諸国の経済・社会に国家や党の過度の介入や腐敗など、構造的な問題があるからである。
他方、老舗の「資本主義先進諸国」は、経済成長をもたらす種、つまり資本と技術と経営ノウハウを相変わらず持っている。２０１３年世界の直接投資は１兆４５００億ドルにのぼり、このうち61％は先進諸国企業によるものである。２００７年の75％に比べると、先進国企業の比重は落ちたが、それでも技術と経営ノウハウの移植を伴う良質の投資は、先進国企業の独壇場である。
中国企業は繊維・縫製、あるいは電機のＨＡＩＥＲ、通信のＨＵＡＷＥＩなどが海外生産を増やしているが、先端技術の分野はまだ先進国企業の独壇場である。ｉＰａｄは中国で組み立てられているが、その販売価格５００ドルのうち、中国の労働者が得る分は僅か８ドル、その他はアップル本社、韓国、台湾、日本等の部品企業、流通業等が得るという構造になっている 。
次に、市場経済より中国やロシアのような国家統制経済の方が強いのではないかという疑念は、さっぱりと捨てるべきである。ロシア経済の成長が原油価格急騰でもたらされたことは周知の事実だが、奇跡ともてはやされる中国経済も、実は今でも輸出の50％を外資系企業が行っている。外国からの直接投資、そしてそれがもたらす貿易黒字の合計は今でも年間四千億ドルを越え、それがインフラ投資で膨らまされて「高度成長」を演出しているのである。つまりロシア、中国は国家統制経済であるが故に成長できたのではなく、統制経済であるにもかかわらず、外部要因によって棚ボタ的成長を遂げたのである。
一方、先進諸国の市場経済・民主主義モデルの方も、構造的問題を抱えている。米国で顕著だが、富の偏在・格差が甚だしく、それは消費の増大を妨げている。米欧日とも過度の金融緩和で景気刺激をしているが、それはまたバブルの崩壊を招いて世界経済をどん底に落としかねない。ここでは、格差是正、そして投機行動の抑制が必要なのである。
もう一つ、先進国では政党をベースとした代議制民主主義が、社会の多様化と国民の権利意識の向上で、大幅な立て直しを迫られている。また、先進国が途上国に上から目線で民主主義を押し付けるやり方も、情勢を混乱させただけで古い利権構造を打破するに至っていないという問題を抱えている。
これらの問題は、主要国首脳会議だけでなく、ＯＥＣＤなど、より多くの国が参加する組織で議論していくのが適当だろう。
来年の主要国首脳会議は、オバマ大統領にとっては最後だが、日、独、英、仏の首脳はまだ先がある。じっくりと議論ができる。そしてウクライナ問題を収拾できれば、ロシアの復帰も議論の対象となる。日本では、主要国首脳会議を主催する年には総選挙があるのが通例なので、安倍首相も腕の振るいどころだ。
（筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼駐タジキスタン大使 本稿の一部修正したものがニューズウィーク日本版６月１６日号に掲載された。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟