Unraveling the Riddle of the Abe Administration's High Approval Rating and Predicting the Future
KURASHIGE Atsuro / Journalist
March 22, 2016
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promoted unpopular policies such as the special state secrets law and the national security legislations. His government has been plagued by scandals. Why then, does the Abe administration continue to enjoy high approval ratings? Let me start by unraveling this riddle.
There are four reasons why approval ratings for the government have remained consistently at around 50 percent.
First of all, the weak yen and high stock prices produced by Abenomics have created the impression of an apparent upturn in the economy. Improvements in these two indicators have generated unprecedented revenues for Japan's major export-led manufacturers. These companies have figured prominently in shaping the consensus view of Japanese industry by raising their collective voice through the Keidanren（Japanese Business Federation）showering praise on the Abe administration. We could add to this the fact that the Japanese people – famously known for being "economic animals" – love a good economic boom, and have made it the primary purpose of national politics.
The second reason is that Abe's policies for strengthening state power have won him support in the area of national security. What the Japanese fear most is the dramatic rise of China in recent years. There are two aspects to this fear, concerning the past and the future. There is the sense of guilt, that despite having invaded the Chinese continent and committed outrageous acts such as the Nanjing Massacre in its past, Japan had gotten away without paying postwar reparations or issuing a proper apology. Then there is the sense of horror that should China expand its military power, it could seek revenge on Japan in a similar manner.
Abe has proffered his own solution to such fears by forcing through measures aimed at bolstering Japan's alliance with the United States and raising its deterrent capability with US support. These measures included creating the National Security Council, establishing the Act on the Protection of Specially Designated Secrets, lifting the ban on arms exports and giving partial approval to the use of the right of collective self-defense. Anti-Abe groups including the Democratic Party of Japan have been unable to present a persuasive alternative, and this has generated passive support for Abe.
The third reason is intricately linked to the second. The rise of China and South Korea is threatening Japan's position as the most powerful economic nation in Asia, causing an identity crisis among the Japanese. Abe's policy of reinstating Japan to the center of the world has led people to rally around the government in nationalistic support.
The fourth and final reason is the time it is taking for the emergence of a new force that could take on the responsibility of government and replace Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The Democratic Party of Japan has taken more than its share of abuse for the mistakes it made during its three years in power, and has yet to win recognition as a governing party of the future.
Next, I would like to offer my future outlook for the Abe administration based on an analysis of its power structure.
In my view, the power base of the Abe administration has been sustained by five influential groups. These are: the Foreign Ministry, which seeks to serve Japan's national interests by following the US lead; the Japan Conference, a right-wing organization that criticizes "masochistic" views of history and aims to revise the Constitution; industry-government collaborators responsible for orchestrating Abenomics; Abe supporters within the LDP including senior politicians and the "Abe Children" – Abe's protégés; and two major media groups - Sankei and Yomiuri.
Of these groups, the Foreign Ministry has finally won approval to exercise Japan's right of collective self-defense, which it had longed to possess as a useful card in dealing with the United States. On the question of the U.S. bases in Okinawa, Abe's tough stance is delaying its resolution. In that sense, the ministry has no more use for the Abe administration. The Japan Conference has succeeded in getting Abe to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, while compromising on his comments on historical perception upon the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and on the "comfort women" issue. Their only remaining agenda is constitutional revision, but they do not expect to get that far during Abe's time in office.
Meanwhile, industry-government collaborators have begun to back away since Japan took the plunge into negative interest rates. While keeping up their bullish pretense, they are in fact concerned about the lack of an exit policy. Abe supporters in the LDP have been hurt by the resignation of Akira Amari, the cabinet minister who played a crucial role in the government. Between the two media groups, Sankei is on the same page as Abe in terms of political dogma. But Yomiuri's support for Abe is based on shared interests regarding national security legislations and the introduction of reduced tax rates on certain items in the context of raising the consumption tax, and how much longer the honeymoon will last is anyone's guess.
In this way, cracks have appeared in Abe's substantive power base. Meanwhile, foul winds are beginning to blow against the economy, the most important component of the approval ratings. Once these two factors interlock, the Abe government will become less stable than it has been made out to be. Upper house elections this summer will no doubt be followed by in-fighting over the post-Abe party leadership. I believe Abe will be unable to call a double-election of both Houses of Parliament, and be forced to hand over the task of revising the Constitution to the next generation.
Atsuro Kurashige is Expert Senior Writer of the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
There are four reasons why approval ratings for the government have remained consistently at around 50 percent.
First of all, the weak yen and high stock prices produced by Abenomics have created the impression of an apparent upturn in the economy. Improvements in these two indicators have generated unprecedented revenues for Japan's major export-led manufacturers. These companies have figured prominently in shaping the consensus view of Japanese industry by raising their collective voice through the Keidanren（Japanese Business Federation）showering praise on the Abe administration. We could add to this the fact that the Japanese people – famously known for being "economic animals" – love a good economic boom, and have made it the primary purpose of national politics.
The second reason is that Abe's policies for strengthening state power have won him support in the area of national security. What the Japanese fear most is the dramatic rise of China in recent years. There are two aspects to this fear, concerning the past and the future. There is the sense of guilt, that despite having invaded the Chinese continent and committed outrageous acts such as the Nanjing Massacre in its past, Japan had gotten away without paying postwar reparations or issuing a proper apology. Then there is the sense of horror that should China expand its military power, it could seek revenge on Japan in a similar manner.
Abe has proffered his own solution to such fears by forcing through measures aimed at bolstering Japan's alliance with the United States and raising its deterrent capability with US support. These measures included creating the National Security Council, establishing the Act on the Protection of Specially Designated Secrets, lifting the ban on arms exports and giving partial approval to the use of the right of collective self-defense. Anti-Abe groups including the Democratic Party of Japan have been unable to present a persuasive alternative, and this has generated passive support for Abe.
The third reason is intricately linked to the second. The rise of China and South Korea is threatening Japan's position as the most powerful economic nation in Asia, causing an identity crisis among the Japanese. Abe's policy of reinstating Japan to the center of the world has led people to rally around the government in nationalistic support.
The fourth and final reason is the time it is taking for the emergence of a new force that could take on the responsibility of government and replace Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The Democratic Party of Japan has taken more than its share of abuse for the mistakes it made during its three years in power, and has yet to win recognition as a governing party of the future.
Next, I would like to offer my future outlook for the Abe administration based on an analysis of its power structure.
In my view, the power base of the Abe administration has been sustained by five influential groups. These are: the Foreign Ministry, which seeks to serve Japan's national interests by following the US lead; the Japan Conference, a right-wing organization that criticizes "masochistic" views of history and aims to revise the Constitution; industry-government collaborators responsible for orchestrating Abenomics; Abe supporters within the LDP including senior politicians and the "Abe Children" – Abe's protégés; and two major media groups - Sankei and Yomiuri.
Of these groups, the Foreign Ministry has finally won approval to exercise Japan's right of collective self-defense, which it had longed to possess as a useful card in dealing with the United States. On the question of the U.S. bases in Okinawa, Abe's tough stance is delaying its resolution. In that sense, the ministry has no more use for the Abe administration. The Japan Conference has succeeded in getting Abe to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, while compromising on his comments on historical perception upon the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and on the "comfort women" issue. Their only remaining agenda is constitutional revision, but they do not expect to get that far during Abe's time in office.
Meanwhile, industry-government collaborators have begun to back away since Japan took the plunge into negative interest rates. While keeping up their bullish pretense, they are in fact concerned about the lack of an exit policy. Abe supporters in the LDP have been hurt by the resignation of Akira Amari, the cabinet minister who played a crucial role in the government. Between the two media groups, Sankei is on the same page as Abe in terms of political dogma. But Yomiuri's support for Abe is based on shared interests regarding national security legislations and the introduction of reduced tax rates on certain items in the context of raising the consumption tax, and how much longer the honeymoon will last is anyone's guess.
In this way, cracks have appeared in Abe's substantive power base. Meanwhile, foul winds are beginning to blow against the economy, the most important component of the approval ratings. Once these two factors interlock, the Abe government will become less stable than it has been made out to be. Upper house elections this summer will no doubt be followed by in-fighting over the post-Abe party leadership. I believe Abe will be unable to call a double-election of both Houses of Parliament, and be forced to hand over the task of revising the Constitution to the next generation.
Atsuro Kurashige is Expert Senior Writer of the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
安倍政権の高支持率の謎解きと将来予測
倉重 篤郎 / ジャーナリスト
2016年 3月 22日
安倍晋三政権は秘密保護法や安保法制と言った不人気政策やスキャンダルを抱えながらなぜ高支持率を維持しているのか。まずはその謎を解く。
内閣支持率が50％前後と依然として高止まりしている理由は４つある。
第一に、アベノミクスによる円安、株高が、一見日本経済が好転したかの印象をもたらしていることである。この二つの指標の改善で、日本を代表する輸出型製造業界は空前の高収益を上げている。彼らが経団連という組織を通じて、日本経済界の総意として安倍政権賛美を続けていることが大きい。また、エコノミックアニマルとしても名高い日本人は、好況が大好きで、政治の役割には何よりもそれを優先してきたこともある。
第二に、安倍の一連の国権強化策が安全保障面での支持につながっている。日本人が最も恐れているのは、近年の中国の著しい台頭である。それは過去、未来の２つの側面を持っている。過去の一時期、日本が中国大陸を侵略、南京大虐殺といった狼藉を働きながら、戦後賠償を免れ、しかるべく謝罪もしてこなかったことに対する後ろめたさであり、中国が軍事力を増強させた場合、将来似たような形で復讐されるのではないかという恐怖感である。
安倍は、日米同盟強化による米国の力を借りた抑止力の強化策（国家安全保障会議創設、特定秘密保護法制定、武器輸出の解禁、集団的自衛権一部容認）を強行、国民の不安に彼なりの回答を出している。民主党ら反安倍勢力が他に説得力のある選択肢を示せないことが安倍への消極的支持を生んでいる。
第三は、第二と密接に関連する問題ではあるが、中国、韓国の台頭によって「アジア最強の経済大国」という日本のポジションが脅かされつつあり、それが日本人のアイデンティティー危機につながっている。日本を再び世界の中心に復帰させようという安倍の政策は、政権に対するナショナリスティックな求心力を生んでいる。
第四に、安倍自民党に代わる政権担当能力のある受け皿がなかなかできてこないことである。民主党はその３年間の政権統治の失敗を必要以上にけなされ、いまだに未来の与党としての評価を与えられていない。
次に、安倍政権の権力構造を分析することで、政権の今後の動向を予測したい。
安倍政権とは、私見によると、①従米主義をもって日本の国益とする外務省②自虐史観を批判し、改憲を目指す右派団体「日本会議」③アベノミクスを振りつけてきた産官勢力④自民党内安倍支持派（幹部＋安倍チルドレン）⑤産経、読売の２大メディア、という５大勢力の支持がその権力基盤になっている。
①では外務省が、対米カードとして悲願であった集団的自衛権の行使容認を勝ち取った。沖縄基地問題では安倍の強硬姿勢がむしろ解決を遅らせている。その意味で安倍は御用済みともいえる。②は、安倍の靖国参拝を実現させ、70年歴史認識談話、慰安婦問題では妥協した。後は改憲のみであるが、安倍時代にそこまで行けるとは思っていない。③は、マイナス金利政策に踏み込んだところから腰が引け始めた。依然強気の構えだが、本音ベースでは政策の出口が見えないことを憂慮している。④は、政権中枢にいた甘利明の閣僚辞任が痛い。⑤のうち産経は安倍の思想的同志だが、読売とは安保法制や軽減税率導入での利害共同体であり、いつまで蜜月が続くかは予断を許さない。
かくして、安倍を支える実体的権力基盤には軋みが生じ始めている。一方で、支持率の構成要件で最も重要な経済もまたアゲンストの風が吹き始めた。この二つが連動すると、安倍政権は言われているほどに安泰ではなくなる。夏の参院選後はポスト安倍をめぐる党内抗争が始まるであろう。安倍はダブル選を打てず、改憲もまた次の世代に引きつかざるを得なくなるのではなかろうか。
(筆者は毎日新聞専門編集委員）
内閣支持率が50％前後と依然として高止まりしている理由は４つある。
第一に、アベノミクスによる円安、株高が、一見日本経済が好転したかの印象をもたらしていることである。この二つの指標の改善で、日本を代表する輸出型製造業界は空前の高収益を上げている。彼らが経団連という組織を通じて、日本経済界の総意として安倍政権賛美を続けていることが大きい。また、エコノミックアニマルとしても名高い日本人は、好況が大好きで、政治の役割には何よりもそれを優先してきたこともある。
第二に、安倍の一連の国権強化策が安全保障面での支持につながっている。日本人が最も恐れているのは、近年の中国の著しい台頭である。それは過去、未来の２つの側面を持っている。過去の一時期、日本が中国大陸を侵略、南京大虐殺といった狼藉を働きながら、戦後賠償を免れ、しかるべく謝罪もしてこなかったことに対する後ろめたさであり、中国が軍事力を増強させた場合、将来似たような形で復讐されるのではないかという恐怖感である。
安倍は、日米同盟強化による米国の力を借りた抑止力の強化策（国家安全保障会議創設、特定秘密保護法制定、武器輸出の解禁、集団的自衛権一部容認）を強行、国民の不安に彼なりの回答を出している。民主党ら反安倍勢力が他に説得力のある選択肢を示せないことが安倍への消極的支持を生んでいる。
第三は、第二と密接に関連する問題ではあるが、中国、韓国の台頭によって「アジア最強の経済大国」という日本のポジションが脅かされつつあり、それが日本人のアイデンティティー危機につながっている。日本を再び世界の中心に復帰させようという安倍の政策は、政権に対するナショナリスティックな求心力を生んでいる。
第四に、安倍自民党に代わる政権担当能力のある受け皿がなかなかできてこないことである。民主党はその３年間の政権統治の失敗を必要以上にけなされ、いまだに未来の与党としての評価を与えられていない。
次に、安倍政権の権力構造を分析することで、政権の今後の動向を予測したい。
安倍政権とは、私見によると、①従米主義をもって日本の国益とする外務省②自虐史観を批判し、改憲を目指す右派団体「日本会議」③アベノミクスを振りつけてきた産官勢力④自民党内安倍支持派（幹部＋安倍チルドレン）⑤産経、読売の２大メディア、という５大勢力の支持がその権力基盤になっている。
①では外務省が、対米カードとして悲願であった集団的自衛権の行使容認を勝ち取った。沖縄基地問題では安倍の強硬姿勢がむしろ解決を遅らせている。その意味で安倍は御用済みともいえる。②は、安倍の靖国参拝を実現させ、70年歴史認識談話、慰安婦問題では妥協した。後は改憲のみであるが、安倍時代にそこまで行けるとは思っていない。③は、マイナス金利政策に踏み込んだところから腰が引け始めた。依然強気の構えだが、本音ベースでは政策の出口が見えないことを憂慮している。④は、政権中枢にいた甘利明の閣僚辞任が痛い。⑤のうち産経は安倍の思想的同志だが、読売とは安保法制や軽減税率導入での利害共同体であり、いつまで蜜月が続くかは予断を許さない。
かくして、安倍を支える実体的権力基盤には軋みが生じ始めている。一方で、支持率の構成要件で最も重要な経済もまたアゲンストの風が吹き始めた。この二つが連動すると、安倍政権は言われているほどに安泰ではなくなる。夏の参院選後はポスト安倍をめぐる党内抗争が始まるであろう。安倍はダブル選を打てず、改憲もまた次の世代に引きつかざるを得なくなるのではなかろうか。
(筆者は毎日新聞専門編集委員）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟