Japan’s Vision for Economic Order in East Asia
TANAKA Hitoshi / Chairman, JRI Institute for International Strategy
July 4, 2017
The Donald Trump administration’s withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership could have major repercussions for the political and economic order in East Asia. For Japan, the most desirable scenario would have been to set high-level trade rules under the TPP while also realizing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia and, by combining the two, ultimately establish a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific. The ideal for Japan would be to establish stable interstate relations with the United States and other advanced democratic economies by strengthening mutual dependence based on free market economy rules as distinct from state capitalism (characterized by a high degree of state intervention).
A US return to the TPP is not likely, however—at least not in the foreseeable future. Under the banner of reciprocity, the Trump administration has launched new economic talks with Japan and China, among other countries, with an eye to rectifying trade imbalances at the bilateral level. China has responded to this approach by promoting a 100-day action plan with the United States to fix trade imbalances between them. With Japan as well, what the United States probably seeks is not along the lines of a bilateral free trade agreement; rather, it will specifically aim to shrink real imbalances by expanding exports of US products to Japan. While it is important that Japan pay full attention to demands from its crucial partner, Japan must have a vision of its own, anticipating how the circumstances surrounding it may change in the years to come.
Even with the best economic and social policies in place, Japan will be hard put to evade the impact of the declining birthrate and aging population. With a shrinking workforce and contracting domestic demand, the prospects are not good for Japan’s economic growth. Meanwhile Japan’s neighbors—including China, India, and ASEAN member states—can continue to expect high growth rates, and catering to the needs of their expanding markets will be key to ensuring Japan’s prosperity. In fact, the US share in Japan’s total trade volume has plummeted from 30 percent circa 1990 to 15 percent today, whereas China’s share has expanded from a few percent to 25 percent; these numbers speak for themselves as to where the future is headed.
It is therefore imperative that Japan implement common trade rules with these countries at an early date and achieve even greater market transparency. To that end, it must press onward with the current negotiations for RCEP and for a trilateral FTA with China and South Korea.
Media reports alleging that Japan is less than enthusiastic about the China-led RCEP have utterly failed to capture the essence of the issue. Economic partnership agreements have the potential to create win-win situations for all participating countries by increasing trade, and as such, Japan has no reason to hesitate on the matter. Even if the parties cannot agree on high-level rules from the outset, improvements can be made over time.
At the same time, Japan needs to be firmly aware that it cannot allow China, by far the largest economy in the region, to gain both political and economic hegemony in East Asia. In light of future uncertainties in that regard, it needs to further beef up its alliance with the United States founded on the bilateral security treaty, as well as continuing its efforts to draw the United States into Asia in economic terms. To achieve these objectives, Japan would do well to make maximum use of the new economic dialogue between Vice President Mike Pence and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, where it can seek US understanding of the region’s economic framework while also discussing macroeconomic policy adjustments and cooperation in infrastructure development. As for the TPP, the best path for Japan is to bring an 11-member TPP into force, sans the United States, and follow this with ongoing efforts to persuade the United States into rejoining the partnership.
Hitoshi Tanaka is a former Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs.
A US return to the TPP is not likely, however—at least not in the foreseeable future. Under the banner of reciprocity, the Trump administration has launched new economic talks with Japan and China, among other countries, with an eye to rectifying trade imbalances at the bilateral level. China has responded to this approach by promoting a 100-day action plan with the United States to fix trade imbalances between them. With Japan as well, what the United States probably seeks is not along the lines of a bilateral free trade agreement; rather, it will specifically aim to shrink real imbalances by expanding exports of US products to Japan. While it is important that Japan pay full attention to demands from its crucial partner, Japan must have a vision of its own, anticipating how the circumstances surrounding it may change in the years to come.
Even with the best economic and social policies in place, Japan will be hard put to evade the impact of the declining birthrate and aging population. With a shrinking workforce and contracting domestic demand, the prospects are not good for Japan’s economic growth. Meanwhile Japan’s neighbors—including China, India, and ASEAN member states—can continue to expect high growth rates, and catering to the needs of their expanding markets will be key to ensuring Japan’s prosperity. In fact, the US share in Japan’s total trade volume has plummeted from 30 percent circa 1990 to 15 percent today, whereas China’s share has expanded from a few percent to 25 percent; these numbers speak for themselves as to where the future is headed.
It is therefore imperative that Japan implement common trade rules with these countries at an early date and achieve even greater market transparency. To that end, it must press onward with the current negotiations for RCEP and for a trilateral FTA with China and South Korea.
Media reports alleging that Japan is less than enthusiastic about the China-led RCEP have utterly failed to capture the essence of the issue. Economic partnership agreements have the potential to create win-win situations for all participating countries by increasing trade, and as such, Japan has no reason to hesitate on the matter. Even if the parties cannot agree on high-level rules from the outset, improvements can be made over time.
At the same time, Japan needs to be firmly aware that it cannot allow China, by far the largest economy in the region, to gain both political and economic hegemony in East Asia. In light of future uncertainties in that regard, it needs to further beef up its alliance with the United States founded on the bilateral security treaty, as well as continuing its efforts to draw the United States into Asia in economic terms. To achieve these objectives, Japan would do well to make maximum use of the new economic dialogue between Vice President Mike Pence and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, where it can seek US understanding of the region’s economic framework while also discussing macroeconomic policy adjustments and cooperation in infrastructure development. As for the TPP, the best path for Japan is to bring an 11-member TPP into force, sans the United States, and follow this with ongoing efforts to persuade the United States into rejoining the partnership.
Hitoshi Tanaka is a former Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
東アジアの経済秩序についての日本のビジョン
田中 均 / 日本総合研究所 国際戦略研究所理事長
2017年 7月 4日
米国トランプ政権のTPPからの離脱は東アジアの政治経済秩序に大きな悪影響を及ぼすことになるのかもしれない。日本にとって最も望ましい姿は高い水準の貿易ルールをTPPで定め、同時に東アジア経済連携協定（RCEP）を実現し、これら二つの枠組みを繋げ、将来的にはFTAAPというアジア太平洋自由貿易地域を成立させる事であった。日本にとっては米国などの先進民主主義経済と共に、政府の介入が強い所謂国家資本主義とは一線を画した自由主義経済ルールに基づく相互依存関係を強化し、安定的な国家関係を構築していく事が理想であろう。
しかし、少なくとも当面はTPPに米国が戻ってくることは考えにくい。トランプ政権は日本や中国などと新たな経済協議を発足させ、相互主義を掲げて二国間で貿易不均衡を是正していこうとするアプローチをとっている。中国はこのような米国のアプローチに呼応し、貿易不均衡是正のための100日行動計画を進めている。日本についても恐らく米国が求めるのは日米自由貿易協定のような枠組み作りではなく、米国産品の日本への輸入拡大を具体的に実現し、実際の貿易不均衡を是正していくアプローチをとるのだろう。日本にとって米国は極めて重要なパートナーであり、米国の要望には正面から向き合って行く必要はあるが、一方、将来の日本を取り巻く環境も念頭に、日本自身のビジョンを持つことが求められる。
日本はどんなに正しい経済社会政策を講じようとも、少子高齢化のインパクトから免れることは困難だろうし、労働力は減り、日本の内需は減少し、高い成長率を望むことは出来ない。他方、中国やASEAN、インドといった日本の近隣諸国の成長率は今後とも高く、これら諸国の拡大する市場の需要を取り入れていく事が日本の繁栄にとっては必須となる。現に1990年頃日本の貿易総量に占める米国のシェアーは30％であったのが今や15％に下降しており、中国は数％から25％へと拡大していることからも将来の趨勢は自明である。このためには出来るだけ早くこれら諸国と貿易ルールを共有し、これまで以上に市場を透明化していくことが必要になる。そのような意味で現在交渉が継続中のRCEPや日中韓自由貿易協定は躊躇なく進めていかねばならない。中国が主導するRCEPには日本は消極的といった報道があるが、これは全く問題の本質を捉えていない。これらの経済連携協定は貿易を拡大し参加国全てにとってウインウインとなりうる枠組みであり、日本が躊躇するべき理由はない。仮に当初は高い基準のルールの合意が難しいとしても、将来的に改善して行けば良い。
一方、圧倒的に大きな経済規模を誇る中国が政治的にも経済的にも覇権を握るような東アジア地域とする訳にはいかないことも認識しなければならない。このような未来の不確実性を念頭に安保条約に基づく米国との同盟関係はさらに強固としなければならないし、経済的にも米国をアジアに引き込む努力を続けなければならない。そのためにもペンス副大統領・麻生副首相の新経済協議を最大限活用するべきであろう。マクロ政策調整やインフラ整備協力に加え地域の経済枠組みについて米国の理解を求め、更にはまず米国抜きのTPP11 を発効させ、米国の再加入を継続的に働きかける姿勢をとることが望ましいのであろう。
筆者は元外務審議官
しかし、少なくとも当面はTPPに米国が戻ってくることは考えにくい。トランプ政権は日本や中国などと新たな経済協議を発足させ、相互主義を掲げて二国間で貿易不均衡を是正していこうとするアプローチをとっている。中国はこのような米国のアプローチに呼応し、貿易不均衡是正のための100日行動計画を進めている。日本についても恐らく米国が求めるのは日米自由貿易協定のような枠組み作りではなく、米国産品の日本への輸入拡大を具体的に実現し、実際の貿易不均衡を是正していくアプローチをとるのだろう。日本にとって米国は極めて重要なパートナーであり、米国の要望には正面から向き合って行く必要はあるが、一方、将来の日本を取り巻く環境も念頭に、日本自身のビジョンを持つことが求められる。
日本はどんなに正しい経済社会政策を講じようとも、少子高齢化のインパクトから免れることは困難だろうし、労働力は減り、日本の内需は減少し、高い成長率を望むことは出来ない。他方、中国やASEAN、インドといった日本の近隣諸国の成長率は今後とも高く、これら諸国の拡大する市場の需要を取り入れていく事が日本の繁栄にとっては必須となる。現に1990年頃日本の貿易総量に占める米国のシェアーは30％であったのが今や15％に下降しており、中国は数％から25％へと拡大していることからも将来の趨勢は自明である。このためには出来るだけ早くこれら諸国と貿易ルールを共有し、これまで以上に市場を透明化していくことが必要になる。そのような意味で現在交渉が継続中のRCEPや日中韓自由貿易協定は躊躇なく進めていかねばならない。中国が主導するRCEPには日本は消極的といった報道があるが、これは全く問題の本質を捉えていない。これらの経済連携協定は貿易を拡大し参加国全てにとってウインウインとなりうる枠組みであり、日本が躊躇するべき理由はない。仮に当初は高い基準のルールの合意が難しいとしても、将来的に改善して行けば良い。
一方、圧倒的に大きな経済規模を誇る中国が政治的にも経済的にも覇権を握るような東アジア地域とする訳にはいかないことも認識しなければならない。このような未来の不確実性を念頭に安保条約に基づく米国との同盟関係はさらに強固としなければならないし、経済的にも米国をアジアに引き込む努力を続けなければならない。そのためにもペンス副大統領・麻生副首相の新経済協議を最大限活用するべきであろう。マクロ政策調整やインフラ整備協力に加え地域の経済枠組みについて米国の理解を求め、更にはまず米国抜きのTPP11 を発効させ、米国の再加入を継続的に働きかける姿勢をとることが望ましいのであろう。
筆者は元外務審議官
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟