Another Approach to Japan-Russia Relations
KAWATO Akio / Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
November 1, 2019
In early September during the annual Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok, Prime Minister Abe had his 27th summit meeting with President Putin. However, there was no progress on the Four Northern Islands issue which is the biggest concern of the bilateral relationship, and there will likely be no meaningful change in the near future.
U.S.-Russia relations began to deteriorate around 2007, and Russia has no reason to make concession on this territorial dispute to Japan, an ally of the United States (Putin has said "Japan does not seem to have sovereignty", and seems to regard Japan as a tributary of the U.S.). The Sea of Okhotsk, where the Four Northern Islands are located, occupies a strategic position where Russian submarines equipped with nuclear missiles targeted at the United States patrol. That said, should Russia succeed in establishing good relations with President Trump, it would only decrease Japan’s importance to Russia, and thus improved U.S.-Russia relations would not contribute to the progress of the Four Northern Islands issue.
Similar to what occurred in Hong Kong, from mid-July to the end of August, members of the younger generation in Moscow and other large Russian cities used social media to organize repeated weekend gatherings calling for increased democratization. Demonstrations and gatherings frequently occurred on environmental and landscape issues along with protests against tightened control by government security forces. For the younger generation (43% of the population is under 34) has been liberating itself from the Putin administration, which has been supported by repressive security organizations similar to those of the Soviet era, is looking increasingly alien.
But President Putin, who is scheduled to leave office in 2024, is losing control of the government especially the security agencies. They increasingly provoke people by repeating actions similar to those taken in the Stalin era, i.e., arresting anti-government bloggers and human rights lawyers from their homes in the middle of the night.
Thus Russia does not feel the need to tackle the territorial issue with Japan, and even if it did, concessions on the territorial issue would further weaken the president's position in the country.
Despite this situation, in regards to Russia, Japan is bent on pursuing the territorial issue, repeatedly pleading with the two-party negotiation tactic of "ask and it shall be given to you" as if imploring to the strong. While some say that economically weak Russia should need Japan's help, Russia's finances are categorized as the best in the world and there is little deficit. Besides, Russian politicians have little concern for the economy. Russia believes that steamrolling its ego through is the way to exercise its sovereignty in the world and, in the absence of economic power to speak of, tries to make up for it by the size of its territory and its nuclear capability.
Under these circumstances, it would seem that a peace treaty could not be signed unless Japan relinquished its claim to all four northern islands. Any Japanese politicians promoting such an action would be stigmatized for generations. On the other hand, it would be the height of immaturity to go to war or cut off diplomatic relations with Russia over the Four Northern Islands issue. A sensible course of action would seem to be to secure Russia’s consent that "the territorial issue remains unresolved" and, at the same time, to propose development projects that will also benefit Japan.
Overcutting the vast forests of Siberia and the Far East in recent years to export timber to China contributed to the large-scale wildfires in July. Taking these things into account, why not propose the construction of a “cellulose nanofiber” production facility that would generate larger profits with smaller amounts of timber? Also, considering that Japan may one day establish diplomatic relations with North Korea, the proposal of infrastructure construction and trade promotion between Japan, the Russian Far East, the Korean Peninsula, and Northeast China might catch the attention of North Korea.
Japan could also actively share ideas in the area of national security. Considering the possibility of Russia aiding North Korea's missile development and deploying medium-range missiles in the Far East, Japan could call for nuclear arms reduction negotiations between Russia, North Korea, China, and the United States and thereby check Russia's moves. It also has the effect of blocking Russia's opposition to the Aegis-ashore system deployment in Japan.
This indirect method of addressing the problem may not easily be accepted in Japan. However, by sending or posting such proposals to the Japanese and Russian media, there is an opportunity to have a considerable impact on public opinion in Russia and the world and the image of Japan will surely improve. In this way, we can cultivate the ground for solving the territorial issue in the future.
Akio Kawato is the former Deputy Chief of Mission at the Japanese Embassy in Russia.
U.S.-Russia relations began to deteriorate around 2007, and Russia has no reason to make concession on this territorial dispute to Japan, an ally of the United States (Putin has said "Japan does not seem to have sovereignty", and seems to regard Japan as a tributary of the U.S.). The Sea of Okhotsk, where the Four Northern Islands are located, occupies a strategic position where Russian submarines equipped with nuclear missiles targeted at the United States patrol. That said, should Russia succeed in establishing good relations with President Trump, it would only decrease Japan’s importance to Russia, and thus improved U.S.-Russia relations would not contribute to the progress of the Four Northern Islands issue.
Similar to what occurred in Hong Kong, from mid-July to the end of August, members of the younger generation in Moscow and other large Russian cities used social media to organize repeated weekend gatherings calling for increased democratization. Demonstrations and gatherings frequently occurred on environmental and landscape issues along with protests against tightened control by government security forces. For the younger generation (43% of the population is under 34) has been liberating itself from the Putin administration, which has been supported by repressive security organizations similar to those of the Soviet era, is looking increasingly alien.
But President Putin, who is scheduled to leave office in 2024, is losing control of the government especially the security agencies. They increasingly provoke people by repeating actions similar to those taken in the Stalin era, i.e., arresting anti-government bloggers and human rights lawyers from their homes in the middle of the night.
Thus Russia does not feel the need to tackle the territorial issue with Japan, and even if it did, concessions on the territorial issue would further weaken the president's position in the country.
Despite this situation, in regards to Russia, Japan is bent on pursuing the territorial issue, repeatedly pleading with the two-party negotiation tactic of "ask and it shall be given to you" as if imploring to the strong. While some say that economically weak Russia should need Japan's help, Russia's finances are categorized as the best in the world and there is little deficit. Besides, Russian politicians have little concern for the economy. Russia believes that steamrolling its ego through is the way to exercise its sovereignty in the world and, in the absence of economic power to speak of, tries to make up for it by the size of its territory and its nuclear capability.
Under these circumstances, it would seem that a peace treaty could not be signed unless Japan relinquished its claim to all four northern islands. Any Japanese politicians promoting such an action would be stigmatized for generations. On the other hand, it would be the height of immaturity to go to war or cut off diplomatic relations with Russia over the Four Northern Islands issue. A sensible course of action would seem to be to secure Russia’s consent that "the territorial issue remains unresolved" and, at the same time, to propose development projects that will also benefit Japan.
Overcutting the vast forests of Siberia and the Far East in recent years to export timber to China contributed to the large-scale wildfires in July. Taking these things into account, why not propose the construction of a “cellulose nanofiber” production facility that would generate larger profits with smaller amounts of timber? Also, considering that Japan may one day establish diplomatic relations with North Korea, the proposal of infrastructure construction and trade promotion between Japan, the Russian Far East, the Korean Peninsula, and Northeast China might catch the attention of North Korea.
Japan could also actively share ideas in the area of national security. Considering the possibility of Russia aiding North Korea's missile development and deploying medium-range missiles in the Far East, Japan could call for nuclear arms reduction negotiations between Russia, North Korea, China, and the United States and thereby check Russia's moves. It also has the effect of blocking Russia's opposition to the Aegis-ashore system deployment in Japan.
This indirect method of addressing the problem may not easily be accepted in Japan. However, by sending or posting such proposals to the Japanese and Russian media, there is an opportunity to have a considerable impact on public opinion in Russia and the world and the image of Japan will surely improve. In this way, we can cultivate the ground for solving the territorial issue in the future.
Akio Kawato is the former Deputy Chief of Mission at the Japanese Embassy in Russia.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
日露関係へのもう一つのアプローチ
河東 哲夫 / 元駐ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使
2019年 11月 1日
ウラジオストクで9月上旬、恒例の「東方フォーラム」があり、安倍総理はプーチン大統領と実に27回目の会談を行った。しかし、両国関係の最大の懸案である「北方領土問題」は手詰まり状態で、これは当面変わるまい。
米ロ関係は２００７年頃から悪化を始めたが、ロシアは米国の同盟国の日本に領土問題で譲るわけにはいかない（プーチンは「日本には主権がないようだ」と述べ、日本を米国の属国だと見ているようだ）。北方領土があるオホーツク海は、米国を狙う核ミサイルを搭載したロシア原潜が遊弋する戦略的要衝である。かと言って、ロシアがトランプ大統領と手を握るのに成功しても、ロシアにとっての日本の価値は下がるだけの話しで、北方領土問題が進展することにはなるまい。
モスクワなどロシアの大都市では７月中旬から８月末にかけて香港さながら、週末になると若者達がＳＮＳで誘い合い、民主化を求める集会を繰り返した。また環境・景観問題や、公安による過度の取り締まりに抗議するデモ、集会も頻発している。同国では人口の43%を34歳以下の若者が占めており、ソ連時代のような抑圧的な公安・治安機関に支えられたプーチン政権は社会から遊離しつつある。
２０２４年には大統領の座を去ることが決まっているプーチン大統領は、政府、特に公安機関への抑えを失いつつあり、公安は反政府ブロガーや人権弁護士の自宅に夜半踏み込み拘束する等、スターリン時代さながらの行動を繰り返して、国民の反発をますます煽っている。つまりロシアは日本との領土問題に取り組む必要性を感じておらず、たとえ感じたとしても、領土問題での譲歩は同大統領の国内での立場を更に弱化させるものとなる。
にもかかわらず日本は対露関係で領土問題しか見ておらず、「望めよ、さらば与えられん」という二者取引、或いは強者に陳情するような外交を執拗に繰り返すばかり。「経済的に弱いロシアは、日本の助力を必要としているはずだ」と言う者も相変わらずいるが、ロシアの財政は世界の中で最良の部類で、赤字がほとんどない。それにロシアの政治家は経済のことをあまり考えない。世界で自分のエゴをごり押しすることを「主権」の行使だと思い込み、そのエゴを経済力もないのにもっぱら領土の大きさと核戦力でカバーしているのがロシアという国なのだ。
こういう状況では、日本が北方四島全てを諦めでもしない限り平和条約は結べまい。そんなことを推進した日本の政治家には末代の汚名が残る。一方、北方領土問題のためにロシアと戦争するのはもちろん、関係をゼロにしろ、というのも大人げない。「領土問題は未解決」という言質を取る一方で、日本にも得になる開発案件を提案したらいい。
シベリア・極東の大森林は近年、中国に木材を輸出するため乱伐され、７月の大規模な山火事の原因ともなっている。これを踏まえ、少量の木材で多額の利益を生むことのできる「セルロース・ナノファイバー」の製造プラント建設を提案してはどうだろう。また北朝鮮と国交樹立が実現した時のことを念頭に、日本・ロシア極東・朝鮮半島・中国東北地方の間での交易促進、インフラ建設等の案を打ち出せば北朝鮮への呼び水となるだろう。
安全保障分野でも日本が積極的にアイデアを出す。ロシアが北朝鮮のミサイル開発に手を貸している可能性、そしてロシアが極東に中距離ミサイルを配備する可能性を念頭に、ロシア・北朝鮮・中国・米国の間での核削減交渉開始を呼びかけ、ロシアを牽制する。それは日本でのイージス・アショア配備に対するロシアの反対を封じる効果も持つ。
このような回りくどいやり方は、日本国内ではなかなか理解してもらえない。しかし機会をとらえて、こうした提案を日本とロシアのマスコミに流すなり投稿をすれば、ロシア、そして世界の世論にはかなりのインパクトを与え、日本のイメージは確実に上がるだろう。そうやって将来の領土問題解決の地盤を養っておくのだ。
筆者は元在ロシア大使館公使
米ロ関係は２００７年頃から悪化を始めたが、ロシアは米国の同盟国の日本に領土問題で譲るわけにはいかない（プーチンは「日本には主権がないようだ」と述べ、日本を米国の属国だと見ているようだ）。北方領土があるオホーツク海は、米国を狙う核ミサイルを搭載したロシア原潜が遊弋する戦略的要衝である。かと言って、ロシアがトランプ大統領と手を握るのに成功しても、ロシアにとっての日本の価値は下がるだけの話しで、北方領土問題が進展することにはなるまい。
モスクワなどロシアの大都市では７月中旬から８月末にかけて香港さながら、週末になると若者達がＳＮＳで誘い合い、民主化を求める集会を繰り返した。また環境・景観問題や、公安による過度の取り締まりに抗議するデモ、集会も頻発している。同国では人口の43%を34歳以下の若者が占めており、ソ連時代のような抑圧的な公安・治安機関に支えられたプーチン政権は社会から遊離しつつある。
２０２４年には大統領の座を去ることが決まっているプーチン大統領は、政府、特に公安機関への抑えを失いつつあり、公安は反政府ブロガーや人権弁護士の自宅に夜半踏み込み拘束する等、スターリン時代さながらの行動を繰り返して、国民の反発をますます煽っている。つまりロシアは日本との領土問題に取り組む必要性を感じておらず、たとえ感じたとしても、領土問題での譲歩は同大統領の国内での立場を更に弱化させるものとなる。
にもかかわらず日本は対露関係で領土問題しか見ておらず、「望めよ、さらば与えられん」という二者取引、或いは強者に陳情するような外交を執拗に繰り返すばかり。「経済的に弱いロシアは、日本の助力を必要としているはずだ」と言う者も相変わらずいるが、ロシアの財政は世界の中で最良の部類で、赤字がほとんどない。それにロシアの政治家は経済のことをあまり考えない。世界で自分のエゴをごり押しすることを「主権」の行使だと思い込み、そのエゴを経済力もないのにもっぱら領土の大きさと核戦力でカバーしているのがロシアという国なのだ。
こういう状況では、日本が北方四島全てを諦めでもしない限り平和条約は結べまい。そんなことを推進した日本の政治家には末代の汚名が残る。一方、北方領土問題のためにロシアと戦争するのはもちろん、関係をゼロにしろ、というのも大人げない。「領土問題は未解決」という言質を取る一方で、日本にも得になる開発案件を提案したらいい。
シベリア・極東の大森林は近年、中国に木材を輸出するため乱伐され、７月の大規模な山火事の原因ともなっている。これを踏まえ、少量の木材で多額の利益を生むことのできる「セルロース・ナノファイバー」の製造プラント建設を提案してはどうだろう。また北朝鮮と国交樹立が実現した時のことを念頭に、日本・ロシア極東・朝鮮半島・中国東北地方の間での交易促進、インフラ建設等の案を打ち出せば北朝鮮への呼び水となるだろう。
安全保障分野でも日本が積極的にアイデアを出す。ロシアが北朝鮮のミサイル開発に手を貸している可能性、そしてロシアが極東に中距離ミサイルを配備する可能性を念頭に、ロシア・北朝鮮・中国・米国の間での核削減交渉開始を呼びかけ、ロシアを牽制する。それは日本でのイージス・アショア配備に対するロシアの反対を封じる効果も持つ。
このような回りくどいやり方は、日本国内ではなかなか理解してもらえない。しかし機会をとらえて、こうした提案を日本とロシアのマスコミに流すなり投稿をすれば、ロシア、そして世界の世論にはかなりのインパクトを与え、日本のイメージは確実に上がるだろう。そうやって将来の領土問題解決の地盤を養っておくのだ。
筆者は元在ロシア大使館公使
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟