Japan and the Defense of Taiwan
Akio Kawato / Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Newsweek Japan Columnist
October 26, 2021
The defense of Taiwan has often been the subject of recent deliberations. Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's air defense identification zone almost daily. "The Chinese military has grown powerful. The U.S. aircraft carrier groups are wary of Chinese missile attacks, and avoid casually approaching Taiwan. China will begin using its military strength to bring Taiwan under control within the next few years. In that event, what will Japan and the U.S. do? " These are some of the topics of discussion.
If Taiwan is assimilated into China, the significance of its bases in Japan to the U.S. military will be sharply reduced. This is because the deployment of the U.S. Navy ships and aircraft from its bases in Japan southward, and to the Indian Ocean, or the Middle East, which will have to pass through waters odd the coast of Taiwan, will no longer be safe. This can lead to moving the bases elsewhere, though costly it may be, to Australia, for example. That would leave Japan "naked", strategically placed in a position similar to present-day Taiwan.
Thus, there are talks about defending Taiwan, strengthening the Japanese military, and working out an operational division of labor with the U.S. Protecting the status quo in Taiwan is beneficial not only to Japan and the United States, but also to many who currently live there.
Many uncertainties about the situation in Taiwan
However, upon careful scrutiny, much of what is said about Taiwan is fraught with uncertainties. First, although the Chinese navy has increased in strength, in order to deploy to the Pacific coast to surround Taiwan, they must pass through the narrow straits between Japan's Sakishima islands in Okinawa or use the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines. In armed contingencies, Chinese naval ships attempting to pass through these regions could easily be destroyed.
It is said that about one million troops would be needed to bring Taiwan under control by military force, but China is not yet believed to have the capability to stage such a massive trans-oceanic operation and sustain the requisite supply. Therefore, China is believed more likely to attempt a "blockade" which would lead to Taiwan’s capitulation than use military force to bring it under control. However, as shown above, it would not be possible to block the Pacific coast. Moreover, if Taiwan, the U.S. and others “close” the sea-lanes of the South China Sea, it would decimate the coastal and Cantonese economies which are the heart of China's economy.
On the other hand, are the Taiwanese willing to sacrifice their lives in defense of Taiwan? Conscription was already abolished in 2018. And many of Taiwan’s officers are "Waishengren (Mainlanders)",namely descendants of former Kuomingtang (Chinese Nationalist Party) military officers who fled to Taiwan with Chiang Kai-shek in 1949. Some of them cling to their nostalgia for the mainland, including those who dream of joining hands with the Communist Party regime and returning to the mainland. China may perhaps be considering helping the Chinese Nationalist Party, which is increasingly inclined toward appeasement with the mainland, to gain control of the government so that they can assimilate Taiwan without fighting.
The U.S. is now said to be in a Cold War with China, but does not want it to escalate into a "hot war" over Taiwan. From the beginning, the U.S. has avoided promoting Taiwanese independence. Rather, it has put pressures on Taiwan not to declare a clear separation or independence from the mainland, and has done little to ameliorate the deterioration and obsolescence of Taiwan’s weapons. The U.S. is now shifting its policy to help modernize and upgrade Taiwanese weapons, but will not permit Taiwan to go overboard.
For its part, Japan, it has significantly increased its military capabilities with helicopter destroyers such as the "Izumo" and the "Kaga", which are equivalent to light aircraft carriers. However, public opinion is not likely to support Japan’s defending Taiwan and fighting against the Chinese military. If Japan were to attack the Chinese military, it would come under the threat of China's nuclear missiles. The problem is that Japan does not possess its own means of deterring such attacks. Also, should China decide to seize the assets of Japanese companies located in China to “counter Japan’s hostile policies against China”, it could trigger an unmitigated disaster reminiscent of World War II, when Japan was forced to withdraw, leaving behind tens of trillions of yen in assets.
Thus, the situation regarding Taiwan is a three-way or four-way standoff. All things considered, we might as well accept the status quo which is legally as undefinable as “nue”, a mythical chimera-like creature in Japanese legend, where Taiwan is neither independent from nor subordinate to China. And Taiwan, China, Japan, the U.S. and others concerned can work together to defend it.
There have recently been signs of instability in the Chinese economy. This is because Xi Jinping's leadership has adopted a policy that prioritizes distribution rather than growth and the maintenance of its power rather than the economy. The Evergrande Group, the largest real estate company in China, is now on the verge of bankruptcy with debts of over 30 trillion yen. Also, in order to curb carbon dioxide emission, the Chinese government has stopped coal power generation on a massive scale, which has led to rolling blackouts.
If China's economy takes a big step backward, it will be a game changer in international relations, including Taiwan.
Akio Kawato is Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Newsweek Japan Columnist
If Taiwan is assimilated into China, the significance of its bases in Japan to the U.S. military will be sharply reduced. This is because the deployment of the U.S. Navy ships and aircraft from its bases in Japan southward, and to the Indian Ocean, or the Middle East, which will have to pass through waters odd the coast of Taiwan, will no longer be safe. This can lead to moving the bases elsewhere, though costly it may be, to Australia, for example. That would leave Japan "naked", strategically placed in a position similar to present-day Taiwan.
Thus, there are talks about defending Taiwan, strengthening the Japanese military, and working out an operational division of labor with the U.S. Protecting the status quo in Taiwan is beneficial not only to Japan and the United States, but also to many who currently live there.
Many uncertainties about the situation in Taiwan
However, upon careful scrutiny, much of what is said about Taiwan is fraught with uncertainties. First, although the Chinese navy has increased in strength, in order to deploy to the Pacific coast to surround Taiwan, they must pass through the narrow straits between Japan's Sakishima islands in Okinawa or use the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines. In armed contingencies, Chinese naval ships attempting to pass through these regions could easily be destroyed.
It is said that about one million troops would be needed to bring Taiwan under control by military force, but China is not yet believed to have the capability to stage such a massive trans-oceanic operation and sustain the requisite supply. Therefore, China is believed more likely to attempt a "blockade" which would lead to Taiwan’s capitulation than use military force to bring it under control. However, as shown above, it would not be possible to block the Pacific coast. Moreover, if Taiwan, the U.S. and others “close” the sea-lanes of the South China Sea, it would decimate the coastal and Cantonese economies which are the heart of China's economy.
On the other hand, are the Taiwanese willing to sacrifice their lives in defense of Taiwan? Conscription was already abolished in 2018. And many of Taiwan’s officers are "Waishengren (Mainlanders)",namely descendants of former Kuomingtang (Chinese Nationalist Party) military officers who fled to Taiwan with Chiang Kai-shek in 1949. Some of them cling to their nostalgia for the mainland, including those who dream of joining hands with the Communist Party regime and returning to the mainland. China may perhaps be considering helping the Chinese Nationalist Party, which is increasingly inclined toward appeasement with the mainland, to gain control of the government so that they can assimilate Taiwan without fighting.
The U.S. is now said to be in a Cold War with China, but does not want it to escalate into a "hot war" over Taiwan. From the beginning, the U.S. has avoided promoting Taiwanese independence. Rather, it has put pressures on Taiwan not to declare a clear separation or independence from the mainland, and has done little to ameliorate the deterioration and obsolescence of Taiwan’s weapons. The U.S. is now shifting its policy to help modernize and upgrade Taiwanese weapons, but will not permit Taiwan to go overboard.
For its part, Japan, it has significantly increased its military capabilities with helicopter destroyers such as the "Izumo" and the "Kaga", which are equivalent to light aircraft carriers. However, public opinion is not likely to support Japan’s defending Taiwan and fighting against the Chinese military. If Japan were to attack the Chinese military, it would come under the threat of China's nuclear missiles. The problem is that Japan does not possess its own means of deterring such attacks. Also, should China decide to seize the assets of Japanese companies located in China to “counter Japan’s hostile policies against China”, it could trigger an unmitigated disaster reminiscent of World War II, when Japan was forced to withdraw, leaving behind tens of trillions of yen in assets.
Thus, the situation regarding Taiwan is a three-way or four-way standoff. All things considered, we might as well accept the status quo which is legally as undefinable as “nue”, a mythical chimera-like creature in Japanese legend, where Taiwan is neither independent from nor subordinate to China. And Taiwan, China, Japan, the U.S. and others concerned can work together to defend it.
There have recently been signs of instability in the Chinese economy. This is because Xi Jinping's leadership has adopted a policy that prioritizes distribution rather than growth and the maintenance of its power rather than the economy. The Evergrande Group, the largest real estate company in China, is now on the verge of bankruptcy with debts of over 30 trillion yen. Also, in order to curb carbon dioxide emission, the Chinese government has stopped coal power generation on a massive scale, which has led to rolling blackouts.
If China's economy takes a big step backward, it will be a game changer in international relations, including Taiwan.
Akio Kawato is Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Newsweek Japan Columnist
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
「台湾防衛」と日本
河東 哲夫 / 元在ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、日本版Newsweek コラムニスト
2021年 10月 26日
このところ、台湾防衛をめぐる議論が盛んだ。中国の軍用機は毎日のように、台湾の防空識別圏に立ち入っている。「中国軍は強くなった。中国のミサイルを警戒する米空母群は台湾周辺にうっかり近寄れない。中国は、数年内に台湾の軍事制圧に乗り出す。その時日本は、米国はどうする？」というわけだ。
台湾が中国に吸収されると、在日基地の意義は米軍にとって激減する。米海軍は、日本の基地から南方、そしてインド洋、中東方面に出動しようとしても、台湾沖の航路が安全ではなくなる。それならば、（費用はかかるが）豪州あたりに基地を移そう、ということになるからだ。そうなると日本は「裸」になり、戦略的には今の台湾そっくりの地位に陥る。
だから台湾を守ろう、日本は軍事力を増強し、米軍と作戦分担を決めておかないと、という話しになる。台湾の現状を守ることは、日本や米国のためだけでなく、台湾に住む人々の多くにとってもいいことなのだ。
台湾を囲む不確実性の数々
しかしよく考えてみると、台湾について言われていることの多くは、不確実性を抱えている。まず中国軍は増強されたものの、台湾を包囲するため太平洋岸に回るには、日本の先島諸島の間の狭い海峡、そして台湾とフィリピンの間のバシー海峡を通り抜けないといけない。有事には、ここを通ろうとする中国の艦船は簡単に撃破されてしまう。
台湾を軍事力で制圧するには100万前後の兵力が必要と言われるが、中国はこの大規模な渡海作戦と、その後の補給を維持する力はまだないと思われている。だから台湾を武力で制圧するより「封鎖」して降参させることを狙うと言われているのだが、右のように太平洋岸では行動できまい。しかも、南シナ海のシーレーンを台湾や米国などに「封鎖」されると、中国経済の心臓部である海岸部、広東地方の経済が成り立たない。
一方、台湾人は防衛に命を投げ出す覚悟はあるのだろうか？ 徴兵制は2018年既に廃止されている。そして将校クラスの多くは「外省人」、つまり1949年蒋介石に率いられて渡海してきた元国民党（今も国民党だが）軍の将校の末裔なのだ。彼らの中には本土への郷愁を捨てず、いつかは共産党政権と手を握って本土に復帰することを夢見る者もいる。もしかすると中国は、本土への宥和姿勢を強めている国民党に政権を取らせ、戦わずして台湾を手に入れることを考えているかもしれない。
米国も、米中冷戦と言われているが、それが台湾をめぐる「熱戦」になるのは望まない。もともと米国は、台湾を独立に向けてあおることは避けてきた。むしろ台湾が本土からの明確な分離・独立を宣言しないよう、圧力をかけてきたし、台湾の兵器の老朽化・陳腐化も放置してきた。米国は今、兵器の近代化、増強を助ける方向に転じているが、台湾の跳ね上がりは許さないだろう。
日本はどうかと言うと、軽空母に相当する「いずも」、「かが」などかなりの軍事力を備えてはきたが、台湾を守って中国軍と戦うかと言うと、そこまで世論は支持しないだろう。中国軍を攻撃すれば、日本は中国の核ミサイルの脅威を受けるが、これを抑止する自前の手段を日本は持たない、という問題もある。そして、「日本が中国敵視政策を取ったので、中国にある日本企業の資産を接収する」と言われたら目も当てられない。数十兆円分もの資産を残したまま撤退した第2次大戦の二の舞になってしまう。
こうして、台湾をめぐる情勢は三すくみ、四すくみ。結局のところ今の台湾の、対中独立でもなければ従属でもないという、法的にはヌエのような状況をstatus quoとして、台湾、中国、日本、米国、皆で守っていくことでいいではないか。
なお、中国経済が最近揺れている。習近平指導部が成長よりも分配、経済より権力の維持を前面に出す政策を取ってきたからである。不動産最大手の恒大集団が30兆円超の債務を抱えたまま倒産の瀬戸際にあるし、二酸化炭素排出を抑制するという目標が先走り、石炭発電を大幅に止めたことで、各地で計画停電が発生している。
もし中国の経済が大きく後退することがあれば、それは台湾も含めて国際情勢のゲーム・チェンジということになる。
筆者は元在ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、日本版Newsweek コラムニスト
台湾が中国に吸収されると、在日基地の意義は米軍にとって激減する。米海軍は、日本の基地から南方、そしてインド洋、中東方面に出動しようとしても、台湾沖の航路が安全ではなくなる。それならば、（費用はかかるが）豪州あたりに基地を移そう、ということになるからだ。そうなると日本は「裸」になり、戦略的には今の台湾そっくりの地位に陥る。
だから台湾を守ろう、日本は軍事力を増強し、米軍と作戦分担を決めておかないと、という話しになる。台湾の現状を守ることは、日本や米国のためだけでなく、台湾に住む人々の多くにとってもいいことなのだ。
台湾を囲む不確実性の数々
しかしよく考えてみると、台湾について言われていることの多くは、不確実性を抱えている。まず中国軍は増強されたものの、台湾を包囲するため太平洋岸に回るには、日本の先島諸島の間の狭い海峡、そして台湾とフィリピンの間のバシー海峡を通り抜けないといけない。有事には、ここを通ろうとする中国の艦船は簡単に撃破されてしまう。
台湾を軍事力で制圧するには100万前後の兵力が必要と言われるが、中国はこの大規模な渡海作戦と、その後の補給を維持する力はまだないと思われている。だから台湾を武力で制圧するより「封鎖」して降参させることを狙うと言われているのだが、右のように太平洋岸では行動できまい。しかも、南シナ海のシーレーンを台湾や米国などに「封鎖」されると、中国経済の心臓部である海岸部、広東地方の経済が成り立たない。
一方、台湾人は防衛に命を投げ出す覚悟はあるのだろうか？ 徴兵制は2018年既に廃止されている。そして将校クラスの多くは「外省人」、つまり1949年蒋介石に率いられて渡海してきた元国民党（今も国民党だが）軍の将校の末裔なのだ。彼らの中には本土への郷愁を捨てず、いつかは共産党政権と手を握って本土に復帰することを夢見る者もいる。もしかすると中国は、本土への宥和姿勢を強めている国民党に政権を取らせ、戦わずして台湾を手に入れることを考えているかもしれない。
米国も、米中冷戦と言われているが、それが台湾をめぐる「熱戦」になるのは望まない。もともと米国は、台湾を独立に向けてあおることは避けてきた。むしろ台湾が本土からの明確な分離・独立を宣言しないよう、圧力をかけてきたし、台湾の兵器の老朽化・陳腐化も放置してきた。米国は今、兵器の近代化、増強を助ける方向に転じているが、台湾の跳ね上がりは許さないだろう。
日本はどうかと言うと、軽空母に相当する「いずも」、「かが」などかなりの軍事力を備えてはきたが、台湾を守って中国軍と戦うかと言うと、そこまで世論は支持しないだろう。中国軍を攻撃すれば、日本は中国の核ミサイルの脅威を受けるが、これを抑止する自前の手段を日本は持たない、という問題もある。そして、「日本が中国敵視政策を取ったので、中国にある日本企業の資産を接収する」と言われたら目も当てられない。数十兆円分もの資産を残したまま撤退した第2次大戦の二の舞になってしまう。
こうして、台湾をめぐる情勢は三すくみ、四すくみ。結局のところ今の台湾の、対中独立でもなければ従属でもないという、法的にはヌエのような状況をstatus quoとして、台湾、中国、日本、米国、皆で守っていくことでいいではないか。
なお、中国経済が最近揺れている。習近平指導部が成長よりも分配、経済より権力の維持を前面に出す政策を取ってきたからである。不動産最大手の恒大集団が30兆円超の債務を抱えたまま倒産の瀬戸際にあるし、二酸化炭素排出を抑制するという目標が先走り、石炭発電を大幅に止めたことで、各地で計画停電が発生している。
もし中国の経済が大きく後退することがあれば、それは台湾も含めて国際情勢のゲーム・チェンジということになる。
筆者は元在ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、日本版Newsweek コラムニスト
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟