Iran should pursue its nuclear development programs with transparency and for peaceful purposes
NISHIKAWA Megumi / Journalist
March 28, 2023
It was in 2006, 27 years after the Iranian Revolution, that the UK's Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) reported that Iran had emerged as a “powerful regional power spanning the Middle East to West Asia”.
After the 1979 revolution, Iran faced a number of challenges. Immediately after the revolution, the religiously conservative Khomeini faction and the leftist reformists, who had led the revolution together, parted company and engaged in an armed struggle. In the end, Khomeini's faction seized power, but in the process, many senior government officials fell victim to terrorism. In 1980, the year after the revolution, Saddam Hussein's regime in neighboring Iraq suddenly invaded Iran, apparently taking advantage of the chaos. It was believed that the goal was to take possession of Iran's oil fields.
While the West and the Gulf states rallied to support Iraq, Iran lacked weapons, and the eight-year war inflicted tremendous human and material damage on Iran. In the end, Ayatollah Khomeini was forced to accept the Iraqi-led ceasefire proposal, saying it was more painful than “drinking the cup of poison”.
While the Hussein regime remained a threat to Iraq, it also posed a threat to its neighbor to the east, Afghanistan, where the Taliban regime, which established control in 1995, adhered to the restorationist doctrine of Sunnism and viewed Shiite Iran as an enemy. Tense relations between the two verged on a military conflict.
The 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. in 2001 provided an opportunity to remove the threats to Iran from the East and the West. The U.S.-led wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) led to the collapse of the Taliban and Hussein regimes one after the other, which greatly expanded Iran's security space. Given such assets as the country's large stretch of land and abundant oil resources, its future seemed to be open and full of hope. The 2006 RIIA report mentioned above was based on this outlook.
Seventeen years have passed since then. Notwithstanding the RIIA prediction, Iran is in dire straits at home and abroad. Isolated from the rest of the international community, it has its economy in deep distress due to the sanctions imposed by the West and other countries. Life is hard for its people, with the risk that the slightest provocation may trigger flare-ups. Last September, the death of a young woman detained by the revolutionary forces for wearing the hijab in an unIslamic manner sparked nationwide protests. There continues the exodus of young people who can have no dreams about the future of their country.
Iran has been driven to this point by the political and economic containment imposed by the international community for two reasons. One is the suspicion of Iran's nuclear development program, which came to light in 2002 when an Iranian dissident exposed the fact that Iran was secretly developing nuclear weapons. Twenty years have passed since then. The nuclear negotiations centering around the IAEA zigzagged, and the international community stepped up its sanctions. In 2015, a temporary deal was reached under the moderate Rouhani administration of Iran, but the deal went back to square one when the U.S. administration under President Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018. President Raisi’s hard-line conservative administration, which came into power in Iran in 2021, has refused to cooperate with the IAEA at all. IAEA is reported to have recently detected uranium enriched to 84%.
Another thing that has alarmed the international community is the economic and military support by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, a revolutionary organization, to the Shiite organizations in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This has allowed Iran to project its influence onto the internal affairs of these countries and their neighbors. It has been viewed with suspicion as “exporting revolutions” not only by the West but also by the Sunni Muslim monarchies.
The Raisi regime has been leaning increasingly toward Russia politically, economically, and militarily, including providing drones to help Russia now struggling with the war in Ukraine. After its revolution, Iran had maintained a certain distance from the major powers, possibly drawing its lesson from the previous regime of the Pahlavi dynasty whose relationship with the United States was very close. The fact that it has swung so far from its previous course is a sign of its present plight. Recently, it has revived diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, its rival for leadership in the Middle East, through the mediation of China, apparently with the aim of alleviating its isolation. However, neither of the two elements that have caused alarm in the international community, namely, the suspicion of Iran’s nuclear development program and its Revolutionary Guard’s support to the Shiite organizations in its neighbors, has disappeared. It should probably be seen as a temporary adjustment of interests with Saudi Arabia rather than a reconciliation.
I once lived in Tehran for two years as a correspondent. Iran has a long history and civilization and its people are proud of their Persian ethnicity. The depth of its social and cultural roots and the high cultural level of its people place Iran a cut above the rest in the Middle East. For example, during the moderate Khatami regime, Iran called for a "dialogue of civilizations," which was supported by many countries, and the United Nations designated 2001 as the "Year of Dialogue among Civilizations" and held a variety of events. In launching this "dialogue of civilizations," many Iranian intellectuals were involved as advisors to the regime. Contrary to today's deteriorating image of Iran, it is essentially a country with this kind of intellectual conceptual power.
Iran cooperated with the international community when a moderate government was in power, but it took a tough stance toward the outside world when a hard-line conservative government was in power. This pattern was repeated again and again, only to drive it further towards greater isolation. Iran has the attributes to become a powerful regional power in terms of people, resources, and geography. But it is possible only if Iran chooses accommodation with the international community, as the twenty years of negotiations on its nuclear development have shown. Iran must cooperate with the IAEA, maintain transparency, and focus on nuclear energy development for peaceful purposes.
Megumi Nishikawa is a contributing editor of Mainichi Shimbun
After the 1979 revolution, Iran faced a number of challenges. Immediately after the revolution, the religiously conservative Khomeini faction and the leftist reformists, who had led the revolution together, parted company and engaged in an armed struggle. In the end, Khomeini's faction seized power, but in the process, many senior government officials fell victim to terrorism. In 1980, the year after the revolution, Saddam Hussein's regime in neighboring Iraq suddenly invaded Iran, apparently taking advantage of the chaos. It was believed that the goal was to take possession of Iran's oil fields.
While the West and the Gulf states rallied to support Iraq, Iran lacked weapons, and the eight-year war inflicted tremendous human and material damage on Iran. In the end, Ayatollah Khomeini was forced to accept the Iraqi-led ceasefire proposal, saying it was more painful than “drinking the cup of poison”.
While the Hussein regime remained a threat to Iraq, it also posed a threat to its neighbor to the east, Afghanistan, where the Taliban regime, which established control in 1995, adhered to the restorationist doctrine of Sunnism and viewed Shiite Iran as an enemy. Tense relations between the two verged on a military conflict.
The 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. in 2001 provided an opportunity to remove the threats to Iran from the East and the West. The U.S.-led wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) led to the collapse of the Taliban and Hussein regimes one after the other, which greatly expanded Iran's security space. Given such assets as the country's large stretch of land and abundant oil resources, its future seemed to be open and full of hope. The 2006 RIIA report mentioned above was based on this outlook.
Seventeen years have passed since then. Notwithstanding the RIIA prediction, Iran is in dire straits at home and abroad. Isolated from the rest of the international community, it has its economy in deep distress due to the sanctions imposed by the West and other countries. Life is hard for its people, with the risk that the slightest provocation may trigger flare-ups. Last September, the death of a young woman detained by the revolutionary forces for wearing the hijab in an unIslamic manner sparked nationwide protests. There continues the exodus of young people who can have no dreams about the future of their country.
Iran has been driven to this point by the political and economic containment imposed by the international community for two reasons. One is the suspicion of Iran's nuclear development program, which came to light in 2002 when an Iranian dissident exposed the fact that Iran was secretly developing nuclear weapons. Twenty years have passed since then. The nuclear negotiations centering around the IAEA zigzagged, and the international community stepped up its sanctions. In 2015, a temporary deal was reached under the moderate Rouhani administration of Iran, but the deal went back to square one when the U.S. administration under President Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018. President Raisi’s hard-line conservative administration, which came into power in Iran in 2021, has refused to cooperate with the IAEA at all. IAEA is reported to have recently detected uranium enriched to 84%.
Another thing that has alarmed the international community is the economic and military support by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, a revolutionary organization, to the Shiite organizations in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This has allowed Iran to project its influence onto the internal affairs of these countries and their neighbors. It has been viewed with suspicion as “exporting revolutions” not only by the West but also by the Sunni Muslim monarchies.
The Raisi regime has been leaning increasingly toward Russia politically, economically, and militarily, including providing drones to help Russia now struggling with the war in Ukraine. After its revolution, Iran had maintained a certain distance from the major powers, possibly drawing its lesson from the previous regime of the Pahlavi dynasty whose relationship with the United States was very close. The fact that it has swung so far from its previous course is a sign of its present plight. Recently, it has revived diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, its rival for leadership in the Middle East, through the mediation of China, apparently with the aim of alleviating its isolation. However, neither of the two elements that have caused alarm in the international community, namely, the suspicion of Iran’s nuclear development program and its Revolutionary Guard’s support to the Shiite organizations in its neighbors, has disappeared. It should probably be seen as a temporary adjustment of interests with Saudi Arabia rather than a reconciliation.
I once lived in Tehran for two years as a correspondent. Iran has a long history and civilization and its people are proud of their Persian ethnicity. The depth of its social and cultural roots and the high cultural level of its people place Iran a cut above the rest in the Middle East. For example, during the moderate Khatami regime, Iran called for a "dialogue of civilizations," which was supported by many countries, and the United Nations designated 2001 as the "Year of Dialogue among Civilizations" and held a variety of events. In launching this "dialogue of civilizations," many Iranian intellectuals were involved as advisors to the regime. Contrary to today's deteriorating image of Iran, it is essentially a country with this kind of intellectual conceptual power.
Iran cooperated with the international community when a moderate government was in power, but it took a tough stance toward the outside world when a hard-line conservative government was in power. This pattern was repeated again and again, only to drive it further towards greater isolation. Iran has the attributes to become a powerful regional power in terms of people, resources, and geography. But it is possible only if Iran chooses accommodation with the international community, as the twenty years of negotiations on its nuclear development have shown. Iran must cooperate with the IAEA, maintain transparency, and focus on nuclear energy development for peaceful purposes.
Megumi Nishikawa is a contributing editor of Mainichi Shimbun
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
イランは透明性ある平和目的の核開発を
西川 恵 / ジャーナリスト
2023年 3月 28日
英国の王立国際問題研究所が「イランは中東から西アジアにまたがる強力な地域パワーとして登場した」との報告書を出したのは、イラン革命から27年経った2006年だった。
1979年の革命後、イランは幾多の困難に直面した。革命直後、革命を共に引っ張った宗教保守のホメイニ師派と左翼改革派が袂を分かって武力抗争に突入。最終的にホメイニ師派が権力を掌握するが、その過程で多くの政府幹部がテロに倒れた。混乱の隙を突くように革命翌年の1980年、西の隣国イラクのサダム・フセイン政権が軍を突如としてイランに侵攻させた。イランの油田地帯を手に入れるのが狙いとみられた。
欧米や湾岸諸国がこぞってイラクを支援するなかイランは兵器にも事欠き、8年にわたった戦争は多大な人的・物的損害をイランにもたらした。最後はホメイニ師が「毒をあおるより辛い」と述べ、イラク主導の停戦案を飲まざるを得なかった。
イラクのフセイン政権の脅威が残る一方で、東の隣国アフガニスタンでも脅威が生じる。1995年に成立したタリバン政権はイスラム教スンニ派の復古主義的な教義を信奉し、シーア派を国教とするイランを敵視。緊張をはらんだ関係は軍事衝突一歩手前まで行った。
東西の脅威が取り除かれる契機は米同時多発テロ（2001年の９･11）だった。米国が主導したアフガン戦争（01年）とイラク戦争（03年）で、タリバン政権とフセイン政権が相次いで崩壊し、イランの安全保障空間は大きく広がった。広い国土と豊富な石油資源など所与の条件を考えると、同国の将来は大きく開けたように見えた。2006年の王立国際問題研究所の報告書はこうした状況を踏まえたものだった。
あれから17年。報告書とは裏腹にイランは国内外で苦しい状況にある。国際社会で孤立し、欧米などからの制裁で経済は青息吐息。国民生活は苦しく、ちょっとしたきっかけで火が点く。昨年9月、へジャブの被り方がイスラムに則っていないとして革命機関に拘束された若い女性が死亡した事件でも、全国に抗議行動が広がった。国の先行きに夢をもてない若者の国外流出も続いている。
イランがここまで追い込まれたのは国際社会による政治・経済的な封じ込めだが、理由は二つある。一つは核開発疑惑。2002年、イラン反体制派の暴露によって、イランが秘密裏に核開発を行っている事実が明るみに出た。以来20年。国際原子力機関（IAEA）を舞台にした核交渉はジグザグをたどり、国際社会は制裁を強めてきた。2015年、穏健派のロウハニ政権の時に一時合意に達したが、2018年にトランプ米政権が合意から離脱したことで振り出しに戻った。2021年に誕生した保守強硬派のライシ政権はIAEAとの協力を一切拒否している。最近、IAEAはイランがウランの濃縮度を84％に高めたことを検知したという。
国際社会の警戒心を強めたもう一つは、革命機関のイラン革命防衛隊によるイラク、シリア、レバノン各国のシーア派組織に対する経済・軍事支援だ。これによってイランはこれらの国々の内政やその近隣地域に影響力を投射しており、欧米だけでなく、王政を敷くイスラム教スンニ派の国々から「革命の輸出」と不審の目で見られてきた。
ライシ政権はウクライナ戦争で苦戦するロシアにドローンを提供するなど、最近、政治、経済、軍事的な対露傾斜を強めている。前体制のパーレビ王政が米国と密着した関係をもった反省から、革命後、イランは大国とは一定の距離をとってきた。ここまで前のめりになるのは、それだけ苦境にあることの証左だろう。最近、中東で主導権を争うサウジアラビアと、中国の仲介で外交関係を復活させたが、孤立を和らげる狙いもあったとみられる。ただ国際社会の警戒心を生んでいる核開発疑惑とイラン革命防衛隊による近隣国シーア派組織支援という二つの要素がなくなった訳ではなく、和解というより一時的なサウジとの利害の調整と見た方がいいように思われる。
私はかつて特派員としてテヘランで２年暮らした。イランは長い歴史と文明をもち、ペルシャ民族としての誇りが高い人々である。その社会的・文化的厚み、民度の高さは中東の中でも一頭地を抜いている。例えば穏健派のハタミ政権時代、イランは「文明の対話」を呼びかけて多くの国の賛同を得、国連は2001年を「文明間の対話年」として、さまざまなイベントを展開した。この「文明の対話」を打ち出すにあたっては、多くのイラン人知識人が政権のアドバイザーとして関わった。悪化した今日のイメージとは裏腹に、本来、こうした知的構想力をもった国なのだ。
イランは穏健派政権の時は国際社会と協調するが、保守強硬派政権になると対外強硬姿勢が強まるということを繰り返し、結果としてジリジリと孤立を深めてきた。ヒト・資源・地理的環境など、イランは強力な地域パワーになれる条件を備えている。ただしこれは国際社会との融和の下でこそ可能なことは20年の核交渉が示している。IAEAと協調し、透明性を保った上で平和目的の核エネルギー開発に専心することである。
筆者は毎日新聞客員編集委員
1979年の革命後、イランは幾多の困難に直面した。革命直後、革命を共に引っ張った宗教保守のホメイニ師派と左翼改革派が袂を分かって武力抗争に突入。最終的にホメイニ師派が権力を掌握するが、その過程で多くの政府幹部がテロに倒れた。混乱の隙を突くように革命翌年の1980年、西の隣国イラクのサダム・フセイン政権が軍を突如としてイランに侵攻させた。イランの油田地帯を手に入れるのが狙いとみられた。
欧米や湾岸諸国がこぞってイラクを支援するなかイランは兵器にも事欠き、8年にわたった戦争は多大な人的・物的損害をイランにもたらした。最後はホメイニ師が「毒をあおるより辛い」と述べ、イラク主導の停戦案を飲まざるを得なかった。
イラクのフセイン政権の脅威が残る一方で、東の隣国アフガニスタンでも脅威が生じる。1995年に成立したタリバン政権はイスラム教スンニ派の復古主義的な教義を信奉し、シーア派を国教とするイランを敵視。緊張をはらんだ関係は軍事衝突一歩手前まで行った。
東西の脅威が取り除かれる契機は米同時多発テロ（2001年の９･11）だった。米国が主導したアフガン戦争（01年）とイラク戦争（03年）で、タリバン政権とフセイン政権が相次いで崩壊し、イランの安全保障空間は大きく広がった。広い国土と豊富な石油資源など所与の条件を考えると、同国の将来は大きく開けたように見えた。2006年の王立国際問題研究所の報告書はこうした状況を踏まえたものだった。
あれから17年。報告書とは裏腹にイランは国内外で苦しい状況にある。国際社会で孤立し、欧米などからの制裁で経済は青息吐息。国民生活は苦しく、ちょっとしたきっかけで火が点く。昨年9月、へジャブの被り方がイスラムに則っていないとして革命機関に拘束された若い女性が死亡した事件でも、全国に抗議行動が広がった。国の先行きに夢をもてない若者の国外流出も続いている。
イランがここまで追い込まれたのは国際社会による政治・経済的な封じ込めだが、理由は二つある。一つは核開発疑惑。2002年、イラン反体制派の暴露によって、イランが秘密裏に核開発を行っている事実が明るみに出た。以来20年。国際原子力機関（IAEA）を舞台にした核交渉はジグザグをたどり、国際社会は制裁を強めてきた。2015年、穏健派のロウハニ政権の時に一時合意に達したが、2018年にトランプ米政権が合意から離脱したことで振り出しに戻った。2021年に誕生した保守強硬派のライシ政権はIAEAとの協力を一切拒否している。最近、IAEAはイランがウランの濃縮度を84％に高めたことを検知したという。
国際社会の警戒心を強めたもう一つは、革命機関のイラン革命防衛隊によるイラク、シリア、レバノン各国のシーア派組織に対する経済・軍事支援だ。これによってイランはこれらの国々の内政やその近隣地域に影響力を投射しており、欧米だけでなく、王政を敷くイスラム教スンニ派の国々から「革命の輸出」と不審の目で見られてきた。
ライシ政権はウクライナ戦争で苦戦するロシアにドローンを提供するなど、最近、政治、経済、軍事的な対露傾斜を強めている。前体制のパーレビ王政が米国と密着した関係をもった反省から、革命後、イランは大国とは一定の距離をとってきた。ここまで前のめりになるのは、それだけ苦境にあることの証左だろう。最近、中東で主導権を争うサウジアラビアと、中国の仲介で外交関係を復活させたが、孤立を和らげる狙いもあったとみられる。ただ国際社会の警戒心を生んでいる核開発疑惑とイラン革命防衛隊による近隣国シーア派組織支援という二つの要素がなくなった訳ではなく、和解というより一時的なサウジとの利害の調整と見た方がいいように思われる。
私はかつて特派員としてテヘランで２年暮らした。イランは長い歴史と文明をもち、ペルシャ民族としての誇りが高い人々である。その社会的・文化的厚み、民度の高さは中東の中でも一頭地を抜いている。例えば穏健派のハタミ政権時代、イランは「文明の対話」を呼びかけて多くの国の賛同を得、国連は2001年を「文明間の対話年」として、さまざまなイベントを展開した。この「文明の対話」を打ち出すにあたっては、多くのイラン人知識人が政権のアドバイザーとして関わった。悪化した今日のイメージとは裏腹に、本来、こうした知的構想力をもった国なのだ。
イランは穏健派政権の時は国際社会と協調するが、保守強硬派政権になると対外強硬姿勢が強まるということを繰り返し、結果としてジリジリと孤立を深めてきた。ヒト・資源・地理的環境など、イランは強力な地域パワーになれる条件を備えている。ただしこれは国際社会との融和の下でこそ可能なことは20年の核交渉が示している。IAEAと協調し、透明性を保った上で平和目的の核エネルギー開発に専心することである。
筆者は毎日新聞客員編集委員
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟