China’s prospects for 2024: Relaxation of political and economic control is the key
TAKAHARA Akio / Professor, Graduate Schools for Law and Politics, The University of Tokyo
January 31, 2024
There will be many important elections in the world this year. Following the Taiwan presidential and parliament election held on January 13th, presidential elections will be held in Indonesia in February. Further, there will be the general election in the Republic of Korea in April, and the presidential election in India from April to May. After the European Parliament election in June, November 5 will be the voting day for the U.S. presidential election, which is sure to attract the maximum attention.
This brings back the memory of the U.S. presidential election in 2016. Donald Trump, considered by many to have little chance of success, rapidly gained momentum as people looked on in amazement, and won. In the spring of that year, I had the opportunity to travel to China with about a dozen U.S. Senators and Congress members and their spouses. They spoke in unison about the people’s anger that pushed Donald Trump to the top and the decline of the power of the United States.
What puzzled me was how little confidence these lawmakers had in their own country. I could understand to some extent the anger felt by the poor whites left behind by globalization. But the decline of the power of the United States? I asked them in what respect, and they said the fiscal deficit, for example. However, the United States has abundant human resources in science and technology as well as natural resources. It is also blessed with a rich natural environment. The aging society, which troubles Japan and China, is still a long way off.
One possible cause for their loss of self-confidence could be the waning vigor felt all around and the narrative that causes such perception. In particular, in contrast to the image spread around of a “rising” China, the story being told was about a “sinking” United States. Donald Trump’s slogan MEGA (“Make America Great Again”) sounded like revealing the underlying perception that the United States had ceased to be great.
Xi Jinping’s advocacy of “the China Dream of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” looks at first glance similar to MEGA, but its image is that of continuous rise. The Chinese Communist Party has a specialized department called the Propaganda Department which is masterful at impression management and manipulation. In this age of SNS (social networking services), there was a period in which the collapse of information control was talked about as a possibility. However, with the advance of monitoring technology, social networks continue to be controlled.
Amid all this, an unfamiliar-looking warning was issued by the Ministry of State Security in December 2023. Perhaps taking a cue from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s use of SNS, the Ministry opened an official account in the mobile phone app “WeChat” last summer. In that account, they referred to the economy, which lies outside their domain, and said that it was necessary to respond to challenges from overseas to achieve economic recovery.
According to the Ministry, people with ulterior motives are fabricating the falsehood that foreign capitals are excluded or private enterprises are being suppressed. They talk about China’s decline to create a ‘narrative trap’ or a ‘cognitive distortion’ to encircle China strategically and contain its development.
The day before that, Weibo, the micro-blogging service, sent notices to some users warning them to “avoid expressing pessimism about the economy.” This appeared to be a move reflecting the view of the authorities that negative news should not be disseminated, out of concern that people’s perceptions and feelings would affect the trend of the economy. In a way, this was also a case of impression manipulation.
The editorial of the Weekly Caixin (https://weekly.caixin.com/editorial/)of December 25, 2023, took issue with the Weibo notice. The main points of the editorial are (a) During the Cultural Revolution, despite the economy nearing collapse, official narratives claimed “everything is great and getting better.”; (b) Current challenges like the weakening growth of the private economy, fragile social expectations, financial risks, and pressing social security issues are not only crucial for national policy but also affect people’s livelihoods; and (c) One should recall that after the death of Supreme Leader Mao Ze Dong, Deng Xiaoping asserted that we must emancipate our minds and seek truth from facts. Only by adhering to truth can we confront challenges. These are very pertinent appeals.
This editorial has been deleted from the internet. But people’s mouths cannot be shut unless truth is adhered to and chaos is rectified. In reality, there is excessive productive capacity and private investment is declining. The task of increasing the income of low-income people has to be grappled with. According to the data published by Beijing Normal University in 2021, there were more than 960 million people with income not more than 2000 renminbi (about 40,000 yen).
China has neither presidential nor general elections. It has promising industries such as electronic vehicles. However, if left as it is, people’s discontent will worsen. The key to China’s prospects for 2024 is the economy. To regain the momentum, what is needed is not public opinion management but relaxation of political and economic regulations.
Akio Takahara is a professor at the Graduate School for Law and Politics at the University of Tokyo. This is a reposting of the article that appeared in the morning edition of Mainichi Shimbun on January 14. 2024.
This brings back the memory of the U.S. presidential election in 2016. Donald Trump, considered by many to have little chance of success, rapidly gained momentum as people looked on in amazement, and won. In the spring of that year, I had the opportunity to travel to China with about a dozen U.S. Senators and Congress members and their spouses. They spoke in unison about the people’s anger that pushed Donald Trump to the top and the decline of the power of the United States.
What puzzled me was how little confidence these lawmakers had in their own country. I could understand to some extent the anger felt by the poor whites left behind by globalization. But the decline of the power of the United States? I asked them in what respect, and they said the fiscal deficit, for example. However, the United States has abundant human resources in science and technology as well as natural resources. It is also blessed with a rich natural environment. The aging society, which troubles Japan and China, is still a long way off.
One possible cause for their loss of self-confidence could be the waning vigor felt all around and the narrative that causes such perception. In particular, in contrast to the image spread around of a “rising” China, the story being told was about a “sinking” United States. Donald Trump’s slogan MEGA (“Make America Great Again”) sounded like revealing the underlying perception that the United States had ceased to be great.
Xi Jinping’s advocacy of “the China Dream of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” looks at first glance similar to MEGA, but its image is that of continuous rise. The Chinese Communist Party has a specialized department called the Propaganda Department which is masterful at impression management and manipulation. In this age of SNS (social networking services), there was a period in which the collapse of information control was talked about as a possibility. However, with the advance of monitoring technology, social networks continue to be controlled.
Amid all this, an unfamiliar-looking warning was issued by the Ministry of State Security in December 2023. Perhaps taking a cue from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s use of SNS, the Ministry opened an official account in the mobile phone app “WeChat” last summer. In that account, they referred to the economy, which lies outside their domain, and said that it was necessary to respond to challenges from overseas to achieve economic recovery.
According to the Ministry, people with ulterior motives are fabricating the falsehood that foreign capitals are excluded or private enterprises are being suppressed. They talk about China’s decline to create a ‘narrative trap’ or a ‘cognitive distortion’ to encircle China strategically and contain its development.
The day before that, Weibo, the micro-blogging service, sent notices to some users warning them to “avoid expressing pessimism about the economy.” This appeared to be a move reflecting the view of the authorities that negative news should not be disseminated, out of concern that people’s perceptions and feelings would affect the trend of the economy. In a way, this was also a case of impression manipulation.
The editorial of the Weekly Caixin (https://weekly.caixin.com/editorial/)of December 25, 2023, took issue with the Weibo notice. The main points of the editorial are (a) During the Cultural Revolution, despite the economy nearing collapse, official narratives claimed “everything is great and getting better.”; (b) Current challenges like the weakening growth of the private economy, fragile social expectations, financial risks, and pressing social security issues are not only crucial for national policy but also affect people’s livelihoods; and (c) One should recall that after the death of Supreme Leader Mao Ze Dong, Deng Xiaoping asserted that we must emancipate our minds and seek truth from facts. Only by adhering to truth can we confront challenges. These are very pertinent appeals.
This editorial has been deleted from the internet. But people’s mouths cannot be shut unless truth is adhered to and chaos is rectified. In reality, there is excessive productive capacity and private investment is declining. The task of increasing the income of low-income people has to be grappled with. According to the data published by Beijing Normal University in 2021, there were more than 960 million people with income not more than 2000 renminbi (about 40,000 yen).
China has neither presidential nor general elections. It has promising industries such as electronic vehicles. However, if left as it is, people’s discontent will worsen. The key to China’s prospects for 2024 is the economy. To regain the momentum, what is needed is not public opinion management but relaxation of political and economic regulations.
Akio Takahara is a professor at the Graduate School for Law and Politics at the University of Tokyo. This is a reposting of the article that appeared in the morning edition of Mainichi Shimbun on January 14. 2024.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
2024年中国の展望 政経の統制緩和がカギ
高原 明生 / 東京大学大学院法学政治学研究科教授
2024年 1月 31日
今年は世界で多くの大事な選挙がある。１３日に行われた台湾での総統選挙と立法選挙に続き、大統領選挙が２月にインドネシア、３月にロシアで実施される。そして総選挙が４月には韓国、さらに４月から５月にかけてはインドで行われる。６月の欧州議会選挙が済めば、１１月５日が最も注目される米国の大統領選挙の投票日だ。
思い出されるのは２０１６年の米大統領選挙だ。多くの人がまさかと思ったトランプ候補があれよあれよという間に勢いを得て当選した。その年の春、上下院の議員十数名およびその配偶者たちと中国を旅することがあったのだが、一行が一様に口にしていたのがトランプ氏を押し上げた国民の怒り、そして米国の力の衰えだった。
不思議に思われたのは、自国に関する議員たちの自信のなさだ。グローバル化に取り残された貧困白人層の怒りはある程度理解できるとしても、力の衰えとは？ 具体的に何が問題なのかと聞けば、例えば財政赤字だという。だが米国は科学技術の人材や天然資源が豊富な上、自然環境も豊かで日本や中国を悩ます社会の高齢化はまだ先の話だ。
考えられる自信喪失の一因としては、人々が感じる勢いの衰え、そしてそれを感じさせるナラティブ（物語、語り）の問題があったのではないか。特に、台頭するイメージを振りまく中国との対比で、沈みゆく米国というストーリーが語られるようになっていた。トランプ氏の「再び米国を偉大にする」というスローガンも、すでに偉大でなくなったという認識が基本にあるように聞こえた。
他方、中国の習近平国家主席が唱える「中華民族の偉大な復興を実現する中国の夢」は一見それと似ているのだが、こちらは上昇を続けるイメージだ。中国共産党は宣伝部という専門機関を有し、印象操作にたけている。SNS（ネット交流サービス）の時代になり、情報統制が崩れる可能性が語られた時期もあったが、監視技術の高度化によりネット支配は続いている。
だが先月、見慣れない警告が国家安全省から発せられた。同省は昨夏、米中央情報局のSNS使用の例にならったのか、通信アプリ「微信（ウィーチャット）」に公式アカウントを開いた。そこで畑違いの経済に言及し、経済回復には海外からの挑戦にも対応する必要があると述べたのだ。
同省によれば、下心ある者が、中国では安全保障が優先され、外資の排斥や民間企業の抑圧が起きているといった虚偽をでっち上げている。市場の期待と秩序を乱し、中国の衰退という言説のわな、認知のわなを作り出して中国に対する戦略的な包囲と抑圧をたくらんでいる、というのだ。
その前日、短文投稿サイト「微博（ウェイボー）」は、一部の使用者に対し、経済の衰退に関する投稿をしないように通知した。人々の認識や気の持ちようが景気の動向に影響を及ぼすため、否定的な情報を流してはならないという当局の意向を反映した動きだったのだろう。これも、ある種の世論操作だと言える。
これらに異を唱えたのが12月25日の経済週刊誌「財新週刊」社説だった。その要点を記せば、(a)文化大革命のころ、経済は崩壊寸前だったが当局は情勢は素晴らしいと言い続けた(b)目下の民間企業の停滞、財政金融リスク、社会保障問題の切迫化などは民生にも影響している(c)最高指導者の毛沢東の死後、鄧小平が「思想解放、実事求是」を唱えたことを思い起こし、本当の問題を直視することで初めてそれらを解決することができる――と訴えたのだ。まさにその通りだろう。
社説はネット上から削除された。だが事実に基づき実状を改善しなければ人々の口を封じることはできまい。現実には生産能力が過剰で民間投資が減少し、消費者の信頼感も低い。有効需要が不足しており、低収入者の所得向上が課題だ。北京師範大学が21年に発表したデータによれば、月収2000元（約4万円）以下の人口が9億6000万人以上もいたという。
中国には大統領選挙も総選挙もない。電気自動車など明るい産業もある。だがこのままでは多くの人々の不満が募る。24年の中国の鍵を握るのは経済だ。勢いを取り戻すには世論操作ではなく、政治と経済の統制緩和こそが必要だろう。
筆者は東京大学大学院法学政治学研究科教授。本稿は2024年1月14日付毎日新聞朝刊に掲載された寄稿の再掲である。
思い出されるのは２０１６年の米大統領選挙だ。多くの人がまさかと思ったトランプ候補があれよあれよという間に勢いを得て当選した。その年の春、上下院の議員十数名およびその配偶者たちと中国を旅することがあったのだが、一行が一様に口にしていたのがトランプ氏を押し上げた国民の怒り、そして米国の力の衰えだった。
不思議に思われたのは、自国に関する議員たちの自信のなさだ。グローバル化に取り残された貧困白人層の怒りはある程度理解できるとしても、力の衰えとは？ 具体的に何が問題なのかと聞けば、例えば財政赤字だという。だが米国は科学技術の人材や天然資源が豊富な上、自然環境も豊かで日本や中国を悩ます社会の高齢化はまだ先の話だ。
考えられる自信喪失の一因としては、人々が感じる勢いの衰え、そしてそれを感じさせるナラティブ（物語、語り）の問題があったのではないか。特に、台頭するイメージを振りまく中国との対比で、沈みゆく米国というストーリーが語られるようになっていた。トランプ氏の「再び米国を偉大にする」というスローガンも、すでに偉大でなくなったという認識が基本にあるように聞こえた。
他方、中国の習近平国家主席が唱える「中華民族の偉大な復興を実現する中国の夢」は一見それと似ているのだが、こちらは上昇を続けるイメージだ。中国共産党は宣伝部という専門機関を有し、印象操作にたけている。SNS（ネット交流サービス）の時代になり、情報統制が崩れる可能性が語られた時期もあったが、監視技術の高度化によりネット支配は続いている。
だが先月、見慣れない警告が国家安全省から発せられた。同省は昨夏、米中央情報局のSNS使用の例にならったのか、通信アプリ「微信（ウィーチャット）」に公式アカウントを開いた。そこで畑違いの経済に言及し、経済回復には海外からの挑戦にも対応する必要があると述べたのだ。
同省によれば、下心ある者が、中国では安全保障が優先され、外資の排斥や民間企業の抑圧が起きているといった虚偽をでっち上げている。市場の期待と秩序を乱し、中国の衰退という言説のわな、認知のわなを作り出して中国に対する戦略的な包囲と抑圧をたくらんでいる、というのだ。
その前日、短文投稿サイト「微博（ウェイボー）」は、一部の使用者に対し、経済の衰退に関する投稿をしないように通知した。人々の認識や気の持ちようが景気の動向に影響を及ぼすため、否定的な情報を流してはならないという当局の意向を反映した動きだったのだろう。これも、ある種の世論操作だと言える。
これらに異を唱えたのが12月25日の経済週刊誌「財新週刊」社説だった。その要点を記せば、(a)文化大革命のころ、経済は崩壊寸前だったが当局は情勢は素晴らしいと言い続けた(b)目下の民間企業の停滞、財政金融リスク、社会保障問題の切迫化などは民生にも影響している(c)最高指導者の毛沢東の死後、鄧小平が「思想解放、実事求是」を唱えたことを思い起こし、本当の問題を直視することで初めてそれらを解決することができる――と訴えたのだ。まさにその通りだろう。
社説はネット上から削除された。だが事実に基づき実状を改善しなければ人々の口を封じることはできまい。現実には生産能力が過剰で民間投資が減少し、消費者の信頼感も低い。有効需要が不足しており、低収入者の所得向上が課題だ。北京師範大学が21年に発表したデータによれば、月収2000元（約4万円）以下の人口が9億6000万人以上もいたという。
中国には大統領選挙も総選挙もない。電気自動車など明るい産業もある。だがこのままでは多くの人々の不満が募る。24年の中国の鍵を握るのは経済だ。勢いを取り戻すには世論操作ではなく、政治と経済の統制緩和こそが必要だろう。
筆者は東京大学大学院法学政治学研究科教授。本稿は2024年1月14日付毎日新聞朝刊に掲載された寄稿の再掲である。
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟