Signs of strain in Russia on the Eve of the Centennial of its Revolution?
KAWATO Akio / Former Japanese Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
April 26, 2016
I was in Moscow from February 23 to March 11 as a visiting professor for an intensive course held at the Lomonosov Moscow State University Business School. The following are my impressions from walking around town and speaking with friends.
Creeping Sense of Insecurity
In the first decade of the 21st century, Russia enjoyed economic growth of epic proportions in which its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew six-fold as global crude oil prices surged by nearly five times. It was this accumulation of wealth that enabled Russia to survive the global financial crisis of 2008. Once your basic needs are satisfied, it is only natural that the next thing you desire should be honor.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, East Europe and the Baltic states were incorporated into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Seeking to repel the insult, President Vladimir Putin sent armed forces into Ukraine and Syria in a move that was widely applauded at home for scoring one up against the Americans. But as the effects of Western sanctions and the plunge in oil prices kicked in, Russia's GDP fell by 3.7 percent in 2015. This prompted major layoffs at companies and gave way to a growing sense of anxiety and strain in society.
The city of Moscow appears calm on the surface and its streets remain safe. There are cafés and restaurants that give off a relaxed and refined Nordic atmosphere, and popular Western apps like Uber and airbnb – a lodging reservation site – have become quite common. In some ways, the country appears to be far ahead of Japan.
However, having reveled in the annexation of Crimea and the bombings in Syria, a sense of insecurity is creeping into the daily lives of the masses, and Russians have begun to voice their dissatisfaction with the government. "Putin does great in international politics, but he should work harder on domestic issues. He's done nothing about corruption in the upper echelons," said a taxi driver.
Still, few are bold enough to criticize Putin in his face. He continues to enjoy approval ratings of around 70 percent. Such ratings do not necessarily imply active support, but is due more to the logic of elimination, to people not knowing what would happen without Putin and their belief that only Putin can maintain stability in Russia.
And so this general public mood of "putting daily stability ahead of ideals" has resulted in strong approval for the Soviet Union and the planned economy system of the past, along with high expectations for the Communist Party. However, these results are not based on any deep understanding of the realities under the former Soviet Union or its planned economy, but stem solely from the impression of greater stability during those bygone days. To many in the intelligentsia, it means merely "unprincipled and cynical stability." We can see here the polarization between the intellectuals and the masses that is typical of Russia.
No Major Collapse in the Economy
The substantial depreciation in the value of the ruble caused Russia's US dollar-based GDP to take a deep plunge from 2.79 trillion dollars in 2013 to 930 billion dollars in 2015. Within the global ranking, Russia has found itself between Mexico – ranked at 15th - and Indonesia, signifying its fall from G7 to G20 in both nominal and real terms. However, the decline in the Russian economy has basically bottomed out.
It appears that Russia's economic policy is primarily focused on restraining inflation, and its official discount rate has remained high at 11 percent. The central bank needs only to lower this rate to generate a virtuous cycle that would lift the economy and increase its revenue. But within the government no one has shown decisive leadership in coordinating policy toward growth. Fearing the phantom of inflation - which is currently about to fall below 10 percent on an annualized basis, it seems as though the government is pushing itself into the corner by tying its own hands.
Relying on Neither the West Nor China
On March 14, President Putin surprised the world by suddenly announcing Russia's withdrawal from Syria. But this did not indicate a shift towards closer relations with the West. According to news reports, Russia pulled out only half of its military aircraft, estimated at around fifty fighters and bombers, leaving most of its troops, anti-aircraft missiles and naval fleet in position. Putin has declared its intention of maintaining attacks against "international terrorist forces" centered on ISIS – Islamic State - by deploying its remaining air force.
With regard to the United States, some Russian experts have responded positively to US presidential candidate Donald Trump and his favorable remarks about President Putin. Meanwhile, other experts take the view that no matter who becomes President, Russia's relationship with America will continue to be strained. Then there is the other issue of US military officials repeatedly naming Russia as America's prime enemy to give themselves an excuse for boosting the defense budget. Russia had protested vehemently for a while, but has clearly changed its basic stance now to that of waiting for the outcome of the presidential election.
As for China, there was a time when Russia's relationship with the United States and Europe deteriorated due to the sanctions, thereby raising expectations among Russians for developing closer ties with the large neighbor in the East. But today, there is a growing awareness that "Chinese banks do not lend easily" and that "for China, America is more important than Russia." As a result, disappointment with China has spread among experts in Russia.
Russia's Relationship with Japan
The relationship with Japan holds a certain degree of importance for Russia, which expects aid not only for Siberia, but investment and technical assistance for regions closer to Europe as well. However, any possibilities will remain limited as long as Japan continues to toe the US line with regard to Russia. There is a danger that Russians' hitherto favorable feelings towards Japan could lapse into indifference or even rejection. Japan should carefully consider ways to maintain and nurture Russia's image and understanding of Japan.
Akio Kawato is Japan's former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
Creeping Sense of Insecurity
In the first decade of the 21st century, Russia enjoyed economic growth of epic proportions in which its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew six-fold as global crude oil prices surged by nearly five times. It was this accumulation of wealth that enabled Russia to survive the global financial crisis of 2008. Once your basic needs are satisfied, it is only natural that the next thing you desire should be honor.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, East Europe and the Baltic states were incorporated into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Seeking to repel the insult, President Vladimir Putin sent armed forces into Ukraine and Syria in a move that was widely applauded at home for scoring one up against the Americans. But as the effects of Western sanctions and the plunge in oil prices kicked in, Russia's GDP fell by 3.7 percent in 2015. This prompted major layoffs at companies and gave way to a growing sense of anxiety and strain in society.
The city of Moscow appears calm on the surface and its streets remain safe. There are cafés and restaurants that give off a relaxed and refined Nordic atmosphere, and popular Western apps like Uber and airbnb – a lodging reservation site – have become quite common. In some ways, the country appears to be far ahead of Japan.
However, having reveled in the annexation of Crimea and the bombings in Syria, a sense of insecurity is creeping into the daily lives of the masses, and Russians have begun to voice their dissatisfaction with the government. "Putin does great in international politics, but he should work harder on domestic issues. He's done nothing about corruption in the upper echelons," said a taxi driver.
Still, few are bold enough to criticize Putin in his face. He continues to enjoy approval ratings of around 70 percent. Such ratings do not necessarily imply active support, but is due more to the logic of elimination, to people not knowing what would happen without Putin and their belief that only Putin can maintain stability in Russia.
And so this general public mood of "putting daily stability ahead of ideals" has resulted in strong approval for the Soviet Union and the planned economy system of the past, along with high expectations for the Communist Party. However, these results are not based on any deep understanding of the realities under the former Soviet Union or its planned economy, but stem solely from the impression of greater stability during those bygone days. To many in the intelligentsia, it means merely "unprincipled and cynical stability." We can see here the polarization between the intellectuals and the masses that is typical of Russia.
No Major Collapse in the Economy
The substantial depreciation in the value of the ruble caused Russia's US dollar-based GDP to take a deep plunge from 2.79 trillion dollars in 2013 to 930 billion dollars in 2015. Within the global ranking, Russia has found itself between Mexico – ranked at 15th - and Indonesia, signifying its fall from G7 to G20 in both nominal and real terms. However, the decline in the Russian economy has basically bottomed out.
It appears that Russia's economic policy is primarily focused on restraining inflation, and its official discount rate has remained high at 11 percent. The central bank needs only to lower this rate to generate a virtuous cycle that would lift the economy and increase its revenue. But within the government no one has shown decisive leadership in coordinating policy toward growth. Fearing the phantom of inflation - which is currently about to fall below 10 percent on an annualized basis, it seems as though the government is pushing itself into the corner by tying its own hands.
Relying on Neither the West Nor China
On March 14, President Putin surprised the world by suddenly announcing Russia's withdrawal from Syria. But this did not indicate a shift towards closer relations with the West. According to news reports, Russia pulled out only half of its military aircraft, estimated at around fifty fighters and bombers, leaving most of its troops, anti-aircraft missiles and naval fleet in position. Putin has declared its intention of maintaining attacks against "international terrorist forces" centered on ISIS – Islamic State - by deploying its remaining air force.
With regard to the United States, some Russian experts have responded positively to US presidential candidate Donald Trump and his favorable remarks about President Putin. Meanwhile, other experts take the view that no matter who becomes President, Russia's relationship with America will continue to be strained. Then there is the other issue of US military officials repeatedly naming Russia as America's prime enemy to give themselves an excuse for boosting the defense budget. Russia had protested vehemently for a while, but has clearly changed its basic stance now to that of waiting for the outcome of the presidential election.
As for China, there was a time when Russia's relationship with the United States and Europe deteriorated due to the sanctions, thereby raising expectations among Russians for developing closer ties with the large neighbor in the East. But today, there is a growing awareness that "Chinese banks do not lend easily" and that "for China, America is more important than Russia." As a result, disappointment with China has spread among experts in Russia.
Russia's Relationship with Japan
The relationship with Japan holds a certain degree of importance for Russia, which expects aid not only for Siberia, but investment and technical assistance for regions closer to Europe as well. However, any possibilities will remain limited as long as Japan continues to toe the US line with regard to Russia. There is a danger that Russians' hitherto favorable feelings towards Japan could lapse into indifference or even rejection. Japan should carefully consider ways to maintain and nurture Russia's image and understanding of Japan.
Akio Kawato is Japan's former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
現下のロシア見聞――ロシア革命百周年前夜
河東 哲夫 / 元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼駐タジキスタン大使
2016年 4月 26日
２月２３日より３月１１日まで、モスクワ大学ビジネス・スクールの集中講義でモスクワに滞在した機会に、街を歩き、友人たちとも話して得た印象は次の通り。
〈逼塞感〉
ロシアは２０００年代、世界の原油価格が約５倍になる中で、国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）が約６倍になる世紀の高度成長を実現、０８年のリーマン危機もその貯金で乗り切った。衣食住が足りれば今度は名誉を求めたくなるというもの。
プーチン大統領は、ソ連崩壊で東欧及びバルト諸国が北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）に編入された屈辱を撥ね返さんものとウクライナ、シリアに軍事力を投入。米国の鼻を明かしたとして国内で大喝采を受けたが、西側による制裁と原油価格の大暴落を受け、１５年のＧＤＰは３・７％下落。企業は人員大整理に踏み出し、社会には不安感、負担感が感じられるようになった。
モスクワは表向きまだ平穏で、治安も良い。カフェやレストランでは穏やかで上品な北欧的雰囲気が感じられるところもあるし、ＵＢＥＲやairbnb（下宿・民宿の予約サイト）のような西側のホットなアプリも普及していて、日本よりよほど進んでいる面さえ見受けられる。
しかしクリミア併合、シリア爆撃に酔っていた感のあるロシア大衆は、そろそろ生活に不安を感じ、政府に対する不満を口にするようになっている。「プーチンは国際政治では素晴らしい。しかしもっと国内のことをして欲しい。上層部の腐敗を放置しているではないか」と言うタクシー運転手もいた。
それでも、プーチン大統領を面と向かって批判する者はほとんどいない。彼の支持率は今でも70％台にある。もっともそれは積極的な支持と言うよりは、「プーチンがいなくなったらどうなるかわからない。プーチンでなければロシアの安定は維持できない」という消去法に基づくものである。
こうして「理想を語るよりも生活の安定が第一」という国民の気分が、かつてのソ連邦や「計画経済体制」への高い支持率、共産党への高い期待となって現れる。それはソ連や計画経済の実際をよく心得てのものではなく、「当時の安定ぶりは良かった」という一念に基づくものである。多くのインテリにとってこれは、「理念なき安定。シニカルな安定」でしかない。ロシア社会に特有の知識層と大衆レベルの間の二極分解である。
〈経済は大崩れしない〉
ルーブル大幅減価により、ロシアのＧＤＰはドル・ベースで15年９３３０億ドル程度（13年は２兆７９０億ドル）に急落、世界15位のメキシコとインドネシアの間に位置して、名実ともにＧ７からＧ20に転落した。但し、経済はほぼ下げ止まっている。
経済政策の主軸はインフレ抑制に置かれているようで、公定歩合は11％と高めに貼りついたままである。中央銀行が公定歩合を下げれば、景気上昇、歳入増加の好循環が生ずるであろうのに、政府内部を成長に向けて強力に調整する者はなく、インフレの幻影に怯えて自らの手を縛り（現在インフレ率は年間10％を切ろうとしている）、ジリ貧を招いている気味がある。
〈西側にも中国にも頼れない〉
３月１４日、プーチン大統領は「シリアからの撤兵」を突如発表して世界を驚かせたが、西側に歩み寄る姿勢に転じたわけではない。報道によれば、撤退したのは航空機の半分(これまで戦闘機・爆撃機合わせて50機程度と見積もられていた）に過ぎず、兵員と防空ミサイル及び艦船の殆どは残置されたままである。ロシア軍は、残存する航空勢力によってＩＳＩＳを中心とした「国際テロ勢力」への攻撃を続ける旨、言明している。
米国については、トランプ大統領候補がプーチンに好意的な発言をしたことで期待の念を表明するロシア人識者も見られるが、誰が大統領になろうが米ロ関係は緊張したまま推移するものと見ている識者もいる。他方、米国軍関係者がロシアを主敵と見る発言を繰り返して、国防予算拡充の口実としていることについては、ロシア側も一時は激しく反発したものの、基本的には大統領選の結果待ちという姿勢が如実になりつつある。
中国については、制裁で対米欧関係が悪化したことの反動で、ロシアが期待を強めた局面もあったが、「中国の銀行は簡単には融資してくれない」「中国にとっては、ロシアより米国の方が大事」という認識も広がりつつあって、中国に対する失望が識者の間には広がっている。
〈対日関係〉
対日関係は一定の重要性は持っているものの（対極東・シベリア支援に期待するというより、欧露部も含めての日本からの投資、技術供与への期待が高い）、日本が対ロ姿勢で米国に追随する以上はその可能性は限られたものでしかない。これまで良好であった国民の対日感情が無関心、あるいは否定的なものに後退する危険も出ている。日本としては、ロシアにおける日本のイメージ、理解を如何に維持、発展させていくか、熟慮が必要だ。
(筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼駐タジキスタン大使）
〈逼塞感〉
ロシアは２０００年代、世界の原油価格が約５倍になる中で、国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）が約６倍になる世紀の高度成長を実現、０８年のリーマン危機もその貯金で乗り切った。衣食住が足りれば今度は名誉を求めたくなるというもの。
プーチン大統領は、ソ連崩壊で東欧及びバルト諸国が北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）に編入された屈辱を撥ね返さんものとウクライナ、シリアに軍事力を投入。米国の鼻を明かしたとして国内で大喝采を受けたが、西側による制裁と原油価格の大暴落を受け、１５年のＧＤＰは３・７％下落。企業は人員大整理に踏み出し、社会には不安感、負担感が感じられるようになった。
モスクワは表向きまだ平穏で、治安も良い。カフェやレストランでは穏やかで上品な北欧的雰囲気が感じられるところもあるし、ＵＢＥＲやairbnb（下宿・民宿の予約サイト）のような西側のホットなアプリも普及していて、日本よりよほど進んでいる面さえ見受けられる。
しかしクリミア併合、シリア爆撃に酔っていた感のあるロシア大衆は、そろそろ生活に不安を感じ、政府に対する不満を口にするようになっている。「プーチンは国際政治では素晴らしい。しかしもっと国内のことをして欲しい。上層部の腐敗を放置しているではないか」と言うタクシー運転手もいた。
それでも、プーチン大統領を面と向かって批判する者はほとんどいない。彼の支持率は今でも70％台にある。もっともそれは積極的な支持と言うよりは、「プーチンがいなくなったらどうなるかわからない。プーチンでなければロシアの安定は維持できない」という消去法に基づくものである。
こうして「理想を語るよりも生活の安定が第一」という国民の気分が、かつてのソ連邦や「計画経済体制」への高い支持率、共産党への高い期待となって現れる。それはソ連や計画経済の実際をよく心得てのものではなく、「当時の安定ぶりは良かった」という一念に基づくものである。多くのインテリにとってこれは、「理念なき安定。シニカルな安定」でしかない。ロシア社会に特有の知識層と大衆レベルの間の二極分解である。
〈経済は大崩れしない〉
ルーブル大幅減価により、ロシアのＧＤＰはドル・ベースで15年９３３０億ドル程度（13年は２兆７９０億ドル）に急落、世界15位のメキシコとインドネシアの間に位置して、名実ともにＧ７からＧ20に転落した。但し、経済はほぼ下げ止まっている。
経済政策の主軸はインフレ抑制に置かれているようで、公定歩合は11％と高めに貼りついたままである。中央銀行が公定歩合を下げれば、景気上昇、歳入増加の好循環が生ずるであろうのに、政府内部を成長に向けて強力に調整する者はなく、インフレの幻影に怯えて自らの手を縛り（現在インフレ率は年間10％を切ろうとしている）、ジリ貧を招いている気味がある。
〈西側にも中国にも頼れない〉
３月１４日、プーチン大統領は「シリアからの撤兵」を突如発表して世界を驚かせたが、西側に歩み寄る姿勢に転じたわけではない。報道によれば、撤退したのは航空機の半分(これまで戦闘機・爆撃機合わせて50機程度と見積もられていた）に過ぎず、兵員と防空ミサイル及び艦船の殆どは残置されたままである。ロシア軍は、残存する航空勢力によってＩＳＩＳを中心とした「国際テロ勢力」への攻撃を続ける旨、言明している。
米国については、トランプ大統領候補がプーチンに好意的な発言をしたことで期待の念を表明するロシア人識者も見られるが、誰が大統領になろうが米ロ関係は緊張したまま推移するものと見ている識者もいる。他方、米国軍関係者がロシアを主敵と見る発言を繰り返して、国防予算拡充の口実としていることについては、ロシア側も一時は激しく反発したものの、基本的には大統領選の結果待ちという姿勢が如実になりつつある。
中国については、制裁で対米欧関係が悪化したことの反動で、ロシアが期待を強めた局面もあったが、「中国の銀行は簡単には融資してくれない」「中国にとっては、ロシアより米国の方が大事」という認識も広がりつつあって、中国に対する失望が識者の間には広がっている。
〈対日関係〉
対日関係は一定の重要性は持っているものの（対極東・シベリア支援に期待するというより、欧露部も含めての日本からの投資、技術供与への期待が高い）、日本が対ロ姿勢で米国に追随する以上はその可能性は限られたものでしかない。これまで良好であった国民の対日感情が無関心、あるいは否定的なものに後退する危険も出ている。日本としては、ロシアにおける日本のイメージ、理解を如何に維持、発展させていくか、熟慮が必要だ。
(筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼駐タジキスタン大使）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟