The Changing U.S.-China Relationship and Japan's National Security
Magosaki Ukeru / Professor, National Defense Academy
March 17, 2005
Security issues surrounding China have rapidly become an important agenda in international politics. These include frictions between the United States and the European Union over the latter's sale of weapons to China, expressions of concern by Japan and the U.S. over China's military buildup, strengthening of U.S. relations with Taiwan, and heightened activity by the Chinese Navy. Why have tensions suddenly flared up? China has always signaled the possibility of military action against Taiwan's independence. The rise in its defense budget has been prominent over the past few years. However, while creating cause for concern in the East Asian region, this was not an important issue for some time. Why is it now a problem?
In general, changing situations in a certain region are due to causes within that region. However, when a regional situation becomes an important agenda for international politics, other factors come into play. Often, it is the changing national interests and perception on the part of the foremost super power at the time -- the United States, in today's context. And this is the phenomenon currently at work with regard to China.
There are three courses of action in terms of recent U.S. policy towards China. The first is to focus on China's economic development and promote relations in this area as a means for cultivating democracy and market economy in the country. The second is to focus on the military aspects and recognize China as a strategic challenger. And the third is to assess relations based on other important diplomatic and national defense issues at the time. President Bill Clinton's administration clearly followed the first course, at times placing China above Japan in terms of importance and pursuing diplomacy aimed at solidifying relations with China. At the time President George Bush assumed power, there was a fair possibility his administration would take the second course. However, in the wake of the simultaneous terrorist attacks, war on terrorism and attack on Iraq became the top priority agenda for U.S. national security and diplomacy, and relationships with other countries were assessed solely from this perspective. The times required dealing with the United Nations Security Council, and the second course of action retreated to the background. The United States thus sought to check and restrain any moves for an independent Taiwan as a factor that may cause its relationship with China to deteriorate.
In the second term of the Bush administration, Iraq remains a serious agenda, though the issue is centered on Iraq's internal security and Chinese involvement is unlikely. Thus U.S. policy towards China can be separated from Iraq. Within this context, the perception of China as strategic challenger gains momentum. And what would be the consequences on North Korea, another important foreign policy issue? The United States wants to use the Chinese card in making North Korea scrap its nuclear weapons program. However, while the United States seeks the collapse of the Kim Jong-il regime, China seeks stability on the Korean Peninsula, which suggests a different course of action for the two countries.
The United States will not allow China to take military action against Taiwan or enhance its strategic balance against the United States. It will respond with military action and take retaliatory measures in the economic and political arenas as well. Furthermore, it will require its allies to follow suit. Therefore, Chinese military action against Taiwan or efforts to strike a strategic balance with the United States would not only prove a near-impossibility, but also cause harm in other areas and consequently work against China's national interests. Unfortunately however, the current Communist Party of China is unable to adopt such a standpoint due to domestic reasons. Rather, China is moving in the opposite direction by challenging the United States. The "Anti-Secession Law," which endorses military action against Taiwan, is a typical example of this stance.
Such developments naturally cast an influence on Japan's relationship with the United States, its national security policy and its relationship with China. In its National Defense Program Outline issued in December, Japan recognized the need to closely monitor China with regard to its missile capabilities, the modernization of its sea and air powers, and its maritime activities. China was also the main theme at the Japan-U.S. ministerial meeting on security held in February. For the time being, responding to China's military threat has thus become a major agenda for the Far East region.
Japan has been pursuing a contradictory policy towards China, seeking to strengthen economic relations while raising the tone of confrontation on national security issues. However, given the change in U.S. policy, the basic direction of Japan-China relations will be dictated by political and security issues. In the past, political friction between Japan and China concerned the handling historical issues. In future, national security will come to the fore. We should brace ourselves for tougher days to come.
The writer is Professor at Japan's National Defense Academy and former Japanese Ambassador to Iran.
In general, changing situations in a certain region are due to causes within that region. However, when a regional situation becomes an important agenda for international politics, other factors come into play. Often, it is the changing national interests and perception on the part of the foremost super power at the time -- the United States, in today's context. And this is the phenomenon currently at work with regard to China.
There are three courses of action in terms of recent U.S. policy towards China. The first is to focus on China's economic development and promote relations in this area as a means for cultivating democracy and market economy in the country. The second is to focus on the military aspects and recognize China as a strategic challenger. And the third is to assess relations based on other important diplomatic and national defense issues at the time. President Bill Clinton's administration clearly followed the first course, at times placing China above Japan in terms of importance and pursuing diplomacy aimed at solidifying relations with China. At the time President George Bush assumed power, there was a fair possibility his administration would take the second course. However, in the wake of the simultaneous terrorist attacks, war on terrorism and attack on Iraq became the top priority agenda for U.S. national security and diplomacy, and relationships with other countries were assessed solely from this perspective. The times required dealing with the United Nations Security Council, and the second course of action retreated to the background. The United States thus sought to check and restrain any moves for an independent Taiwan as a factor that may cause its relationship with China to deteriorate.
In the second term of the Bush administration, Iraq remains a serious agenda, though the issue is centered on Iraq's internal security and Chinese involvement is unlikely. Thus U.S. policy towards China can be separated from Iraq. Within this context, the perception of China as strategic challenger gains momentum. And what would be the consequences on North Korea, another important foreign policy issue? The United States wants to use the Chinese card in making North Korea scrap its nuclear weapons program. However, while the United States seeks the collapse of the Kim Jong-il regime, China seeks stability on the Korean Peninsula, which suggests a different course of action for the two countries.
The United States will not allow China to take military action against Taiwan or enhance its strategic balance against the United States. It will respond with military action and take retaliatory measures in the economic and political arenas as well. Furthermore, it will require its allies to follow suit. Therefore, Chinese military action against Taiwan or efforts to strike a strategic balance with the United States would not only prove a near-impossibility, but also cause harm in other areas and consequently work against China's national interests. Unfortunately however, the current Communist Party of China is unable to adopt such a standpoint due to domestic reasons. Rather, China is moving in the opposite direction by challenging the United States. The "Anti-Secession Law," which endorses military action against Taiwan, is a typical example of this stance.
Such developments naturally cast an influence on Japan's relationship with the United States, its national security policy and its relationship with China. In its National Defense Program Outline issued in December, Japan recognized the need to closely monitor China with regard to its missile capabilities, the modernization of its sea and air powers, and its maritime activities. China was also the main theme at the Japan-U.S. ministerial meeting on security held in February. For the time being, responding to China's military threat has thus become a major agenda for the Far East region.
Japan has been pursuing a contradictory policy towards China, seeking to strengthen economic relations while raising the tone of confrontation on national security issues. However, given the change in U.S. policy, the basic direction of Japan-China relations will be dictated by political and security issues. In the past, political friction between Japan and China concerned the handling historical issues. In future, national security will come to the fore. We should brace ourselves for tougher days to come.
The writer is Professor at Japan's National Defense Academy and former Japanese Ambassador to Iran.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
米中関係の変化と日本の安全保障
孫崎 享 / 防衛大教授
2005年 3月 17日
対中国安全保障問題が、急に、国際政治の重要課題になった。EUの対中武器売却をめぐる米EU間摩擦、中国軍事力増強への日米の懸念表明、米国の台湾関係強化、中国海軍の活動活発化等。何故今、緊迫したのか。中国は従来から台湾独立阻止への武力行使を示唆している。近年の国防費急増は顕著である。この動きは東アジアの懸念材料である。しかし、ここ数年重要課題ではなかった。何故今問題なのか。
通常、特定地域情勢の変化は、その地域内部に原因があるとみなされる。しかし、ある地域の情勢が国際政治の重大課題となるのは、地域情勢の変化のみに起因していない。時の最大の超大国、今日では米国の利害、認識の変化に起因することが多い。この現象が今中国をめぐり生じている。
近年の米国の対中国政策には次の選択がある。（１）中国の経済発展に着目し、この関係を促進、それによって中国の民主化、市場化を図る、（２）軍事等に着目、中国を戦略的挑戦者と位置づける、（３）時々の他の重要外交国防戦略との関係で評価する。クリントン政権では（１）が顕著で、一時日本よりも中国を重視し関係強化を図る外交を展開した。ブッシュ第一期政権発足当初、（２）の可能性も高かった。しかし、米国同時多発テロで米国の安全保障、外交政策は対テロ、イラク攻撃が最重要課題となり、全ての国との関係はこの次元で判断された。当初、国連安保理をめぐる動きが重要になる。ここで（２）の路線は大きく後退する。独立志向の台湾の動きは対中関係悪化要因として、米国は逆に牽制、抑制した。
第二期ブッシュ政権ではどうか。依然イラクは深刻な課題である。問題はイラク国内の治安である。この動きに中国が関与することはない。対中政策はイラクと切り離し進められる。この中、中国を戦略的挑戦者と位置づける考えが勢力を増す。米国にとり今一つ重要な外交案件北朝鮮との関係はどうか。米国は北朝鮮の核兵器破棄に中国を使いたい。しかし金正日体制の崩壊を望む米国と朝鮮半島の安定を望む中国とでは対応は異なる。
中国が、対台湾武力行使を求め、対米戦略バランスの向上を求めても、米国はこれを許さない。米国は軍事的対抗措置をとる。更に経済政治分野でも制裁、対抗措置をとる。かつ同盟国にその参加を求める。従って中国の対台湾武力行使、対米戦略バランス向上の追及はほぼ実現不可能のみならず、他分野に害を及ぼし、結果として中国の国益を損なう。しかし、残念ながら現中国共産党は国内要因からこの判断に立てない。逆に中国は米国に対抗しようとする。対台湾武力攻撃を認める「反国家分裂法」の動きが代表例である。
この動きは当然、日米関係、日本の安全保障政策、日中関係に影響を与える。12月に発表された日本の防衛大綱は「中国の、ミサイル戦力や海・空軍力の近代化、海洋における活動について注目していく必要あり」とした。また、２月の日米安全保障閣僚協議でも中国は主要議題となった。こうして当面中国の軍事脅威への対応が極東での主要課題となる。
日本は経済面での関係強化と安全保障面での対決強化という矛盾した対中国政策を追う。しかし米国の変化を背景に日中間の基調は政治安全保障を中心に動こう。かつての日中間政治摩擦は歴史の処理であった。今後は安全保障が全面に出る。一段の厳しさが予測される。
（筆者は防衛大学教授。元駐イラン大使。）
通常、特定地域情勢の変化は、その地域内部に原因があるとみなされる。しかし、ある地域の情勢が国際政治の重大課題となるのは、地域情勢の変化のみに起因していない。時の最大の超大国、今日では米国の利害、認識の変化に起因することが多い。この現象が今中国をめぐり生じている。
近年の米国の対中国政策には次の選択がある。（１）中国の経済発展に着目し、この関係を促進、それによって中国の民主化、市場化を図る、（２）軍事等に着目、中国を戦略的挑戦者と位置づける、（３）時々の他の重要外交国防戦略との関係で評価する。クリントン政権では（１）が顕著で、一時日本よりも中国を重視し関係強化を図る外交を展開した。ブッシュ第一期政権発足当初、（２）の可能性も高かった。しかし、米国同時多発テロで米国の安全保障、外交政策は対テロ、イラク攻撃が最重要課題となり、全ての国との関係はこの次元で判断された。当初、国連安保理をめぐる動きが重要になる。ここで（２）の路線は大きく後退する。独立志向の台湾の動きは対中関係悪化要因として、米国は逆に牽制、抑制した。
第二期ブッシュ政権ではどうか。依然イラクは深刻な課題である。問題はイラク国内の治安である。この動きに中国が関与することはない。対中政策はイラクと切り離し進められる。この中、中国を戦略的挑戦者と位置づける考えが勢力を増す。米国にとり今一つ重要な外交案件北朝鮮との関係はどうか。米国は北朝鮮の核兵器破棄に中国を使いたい。しかし金正日体制の崩壊を望む米国と朝鮮半島の安定を望む中国とでは対応は異なる。
中国が、対台湾武力行使を求め、対米戦略バランスの向上を求めても、米国はこれを許さない。米国は軍事的対抗措置をとる。更に経済政治分野でも制裁、対抗措置をとる。かつ同盟国にその参加を求める。従って中国の対台湾武力行使、対米戦略バランス向上の追及はほぼ実現不可能のみならず、他分野に害を及ぼし、結果として中国の国益を損なう。しかし、残念ながら現中国共産党は国内要因からこの判断に立てない。逆に中国は米国に対抗しようとする。対台湾武力攻撃を認める「反国家分裂法」の動きが代表例である。
この動きは当然、日米関係、日本の安全保障政策、日中関係に影響を与える。12月に発表された日本の防衛大綱は「中国の、ミサイル戦力や海・空軍力の近代化、海洋における活動について注目していく必要あり」とした。また、２月の日米安全保障閣僚協議でも中国は主要議題となった。こうして当面中国の軍事脅威への対応が極東での主要課題となる。
日本は経済面での関係強化と安全保障面での対決強化という矛盾した対中国政策を追う。しかし米国の変化を背景に日中間の基調は政治安全保障を中心に動こう。かつての日中間政治摩擦は歴史の処理であった。今後は安全保障が全面に出る。一段の厳しさが予測される。
（筆者は防衛大学教授。元駐イラン大使。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟