A Good Opportunity to Review Japan's Foreign Policy Strategy
FUKUHARA Koichi / Former Chief Editorial Writer of the Kyodo News Agency
October 13, 2005
The Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the general election held on September 11, 2005. As a consequence, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's prestige rose to a much higher level than ever before, because it was the Prime Minister himself who had decided to dissolve the House of Representatives and eventually led his party under his strong personal leadership to the electoral victory. It stands to reason that this has made him more confident in promoting further "wider structural reforms." On the other hand, there is a good deal of expectation that Japanese diplomacy, which seems to be in stagnation, should at this juncture be reviewed thoroughly. Is the Prime Minister ready to respond to this expectation?
The cause for Prime Minister Koizumi's great victory can be found in the fact that he forced his opponents into a snap election without allowing them much time and chose the privatization of the postal services as the main election issue. Koizumi made thorough use of the prerogatives of the prime minister and LDP president to the extent that nobody else had ever thought of; he thus produced a garishly "theatrical" election in a confrontational mood even putting rival "assasin" candidates forward against his own party members who had voted against the postal reform bills. This campaign tactic created much public frenzy.
It is often said that the Prime Minister "relies on his own political sensibility, adheres to his beliefs to the last and he is not afraid of acting on his own discretion." This time his political endowments blossomed and scored maximum gains.
In the meantime, his outstanding endowments have not yet demonstrated any tangible results in the field of diplomacy. The Koizumi diplomacy over the past four years stumbled at the outset over the appointment of Makiko Tanaka as the foreign minister and failed to follow-up the good rapport with President George Bush, visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and the Pyongyang Declaration with Kim Jong-Il of North Korea. Although his rare personality and sensibility have left strong impressions, it is difficult to recognize that he upheld Japan's national prestige. True he helped the rise of nationalism in Japan, but he lacked efforts to promote mutual understanding and trust with neighboring countries. He was found wanting in consistency and stability in his diplomatic strategy.
On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations this autumn, Japan exerted all its diplomatic efforts to become a new permanent member of the Security Council in vain, failing to secure enough support from Asian and African nations, not to mention the failure to overcome opposition by both China and the United States. This demonstrates most clearly the severe and difficult reality surrounding the Koizumi administration in international politics.
The great victory in the election, however, has enhanced the authority of Prime Minister Koizumi and solidified his political power base, which may now offer him a good opportunity to restore his reputation in the field of diplomacy. Comments at home and abroad on the outcome of the election invariably referred to the difficult problems the Koizumi administration must tackle from now on, including the adjustment of relations with Asian countries as well as the United States. Among them, quite a few people maintained that now that Koizumi had obtained a good amount of authority, the Prime Minister would suffer little political setback, even if he reneged on his promise of Yasukuni visits, and, on the contrary, would be applauded as having shown good leadership in diplomacy.
During the period when Japan was deeply involved in general elections, various developments in the world seemed to expect and urge Japan to make a step forward toward a more positive foreign policy for Asia.
At the 6000-men meeting commemorating "the 60th anniversary of the Chinese people's victory in the war against Japan and the world war against fascism" held September 3, 2005, Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized that Sino-Japanese relations in the 21 century would be furthered by dissolving various problems through dialogue and cooperation between China and Japan. The fact confirmed that China has decided to review its policy towards Japan following the anti-Japanese demonstrations that broke out in April.
In the meanwhile, President Bush, in his speech at the special summit meeting in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations, told the world that he would attach more importance to international cooperation, reflecting the severe Iraqi situation and criticism of the American people against the government measures to deal with hurricane disasters. In the Sino-American summit talks held on the previous day, it was revealed that both countries were hoping for the stabilization of the relations between them.
On September 19 at the fourth six-party conference held in Beijing, a joint statement was adopted for the first time, in which North Korea confirmed that it would abandon its nuclear development plan including weapons and the United States also made it clear that it had no intention of attacking the DPRK. It was also announced that Japan and North Korea would resolve pending questions and take measures to normalize relations between the two countries in accordance with the Pyongyang Declaration. The following day, the agreement to reopen negotiations between the two governments was made public.
On September 15, Prime Minister Koizumi attended the UN summit conference, where he emphatically reiterated Japan's intention to seek its permanent seat on the Security Council, but he could not strike a fresh note to appeal to general expectations of the world community that was closely watching his diplomatic performance after the great electoral win. For the prime minister, what is of paramount importance at the moment is the settlement of domestic issues such as the reformation of the postal services and he seems to be under no imminent pressure to shift his ground that "Sino-Japanese relations will not necessarily be improved if I change my mind and stop going to Yasukuni" and that "Japan's intention will eventually be comprehended." Contrary to an observation that Prime Minister Koizumi is in a position to be able to "pitch another inning if he wants to," he denied the possibility and kept saying that he would step down in one year. This may be because he seems to want to leave it to his successor if it should be necessary for Japan to reorient its foreign policy course.
Self-righteousness is not wise in foreign policy, where conflicting interests among nations with different historical and cultural backgrounds should ever be adjusted. In diplomacy it is important both to maintain patient negotiations and make timely bold judgments when good opportunities present themselves. It is hoped, therefore, that Prime Minister Koizumi will aggressively attempt to leave greater achievements in diplomacy than in domestic politics. He is not allowed to waste valuable time now that he has just consolidated his position at home.
The writer is former Chief Editorial Writer of Kyodo News Agency.
The cause for Prime Minister Koizumi's great victory can be found in the fact that he forced his opponents into a snap election without allowing them much time and chose the privatization of the postal services as the main election issue. Koizumi made thorough use of the prerogatives of the prime minister and LDP president to the extent that nobody else had ever thought of; he thus produced a garishly "theatrical" election in a confrontational mood even putting rival "assasin" candidates forward against his own party members who had voted against the postal reform bills. This campaign tactic created much public frenzy.
It is often said that the Prime Minister "relies on his own political sensibility, adheres to his beliefs to the last and he is not afraid of acting on his own discretion." This time his political endowments blossomed and scored maximum gains.
In the meantime, his outstanding endowments have not yet demonstrated any tangible results in the field of diplomacy. The Koizumi diplomacy over the past four years stumbled at the outset over the appointment of Makiko Tanaka as the foreign minister and failed to follow-up the good rapport with President George Bush, visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and the Pyongyang Declaration with Kim Jong-Il of North Korea. Although his rare personality and sensibility have left strong impressions, it is difficult to recognize that he upheld Japan's national prestige. True he helped the rise of nationalism in Japan, but he lacked efforts to promote mutual understanding and trust with neighboring countries. He was found wanting in consistency and stability in his diplomatic strategy.
On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations this autumn, Japan exerted all its diplomatic efforts to become a new permanent member of the Security Council in vain, failing to secure enough support from Asian and African nations, not to mention the failure to overcome opposition by both China and the United States. This demonstrates most clearly the severe and difficult reality surrounding the Koizumi administration in international politics.
The great victory in the election, however, has enhanced the authority of Prime Minister Koizumi and solidified his political power base, which may now offer him a good opportunity to restore his reputation in the field of diplomacy. Comments at home and abroad on the outcome of the election invariably referred to the difficult problems the Koizumi administration must tackle from now on, including the adjustment of relations with Asian countries as well as the United States. Among them, quite a few people maintained that now that Koizumi had obtained a good amount of authority, the Prime Minister would suffer little political setback, even if he reneged on his promise of Yasukuni visits, and, on the contrary, would be applauded as having shown good leadership in diplomacy.
During the period when Japan was deeply involved in general elections, various developments in the world seemed to expect and urge Japan to make a step forward toward a more positive foreign policy for Asia.
At the 6000-men meeting commemorating "the 60th anniversary of the Chinese people's victory in the war against Japan and the world war against fascism" held September 3, 2005, Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized that Sino-Japanese relations in the 21 century would be furthered by dissolving various problems through dialogue and cooperation between China and Japan. The fact confirmed that China has decided to review its policy towards Japan following the anti-Japanese demonstrations that broke out in April.
In the meanwhile, President Bush, in his speech at the special summit meeting in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations, told the world that he would attach more importance to international cooperation, reflecting the severe Iraqi situation and criticism of the American people against the government measures to deal with hurricane disasters. In the Sino-American summit talks held on the previous day, it was revealed that both countries were hoping for the stabilization of the relations between them.
On September 19 at the fourth six-party conference held in Beijing, a joint statement was adopted for the first time, in which North Korea confirmed that it would abandon its nuclear development plan including weapons and the United States also made it clear that it had no intention of attacking the DPRK. It was also announced that Japan and North Korea would resolve pending questions and take measures to normalize relations between the two countries in accordance with the Pyongyang Declaration. The following day, the agreement to reopen negotiations between the two governments was made public.
On September 15, Prime Minister Koizumi attended the UN summit conference, where he emphatically reiterated Japan's intention to seek its permanent seat on the Security Council, but he could not strike a fresh note to appeal to general expectations of the world community that was closely watching his diplomatic performance after the great electoral win. For the prime minister, what is of paramount importance at the moment is the settlement of domestic issues such as the reformation of the postal services and he seems to be under no imminent pressure to shift his ground that "Sino-Japanese relations will not necessarily be improved if I change my mind and stop going to Yasukuni" and that "Japan's intention will eventually be comprehended." Contrary to an observation that Prime Minister Koizumi is in a position to be able to "pitch another inning if he wants to," he denied the possibility and kept saying that he would step down in one year. This may be because he seems to want to leave it to his successor if it should be necessary for Japan to reorient its foreign policy course.
Self-righteousness is not wise in foreign policy, where conflicting interests among nations with different historical and cultural backgrounds should ever be adjusted. In diplomacy it is important both to maintain patient negotiations and make timely bold judgments when good opportunities present themselves. It is hoped, therefore, that Prime Minister Koizumi will aggressively attempt to leave greater achievements in diplomacy than in domestic politics. He is not allowed to waste valuable time now that he has just consolidated his position at home.
The writer is former Chief Editorial Writer of Kyodo News Agency.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
外交見直しの好機
福原亨一 / 元共同通信論説委員長
2005年 10月 13日
9月11日の総選挙で自民党が大勝した。小泉首相が衆院を解散し、選挙戦を強気で指揮した結果であり、首相の権威はこの上なく高まった。首相が「広範な構造改革」の推進に自信を深めたのは当然として、さらに閉塞気味の日本外交の見直しに進め、と期待する声も多い。はたして首相にその用意があるだろうか。
小泉首相の大勝は、反対派に準備時間を与えず短期決戦に追い込み、争点を郵政改革法案の可否に絞り、同法案に反対した与党議員に「刺客」を放って対決ムードをあおるなど、首相・党総裁が持つ強大な権力をこれまで誰も思いつかなかったほど徹底的に行使し、派手な劇場型選挙を演出して国民を熱狂に巻き込んだ結果だ。「自らの感性を信じ、信念を貫き、独断専行を恐れない」といわれる首相の政治資質が花開き、最大限の成功をおさめた。
このたぐい稀な首相の資質も外交分野では十分な実績をあげていない。四年余の小泉外交は、田中真紀子外相の起用で出足につまづき、ブッシュ大統領との意気投合、靖国神社参拝、金正日総書記との平壌宣言など、首相の個性、感性が異彩を放って強烈な印象を残したが、フォローアップが弱く、国の威信を高めたとは認め難い。ナショナリズムの高揚を支えたことは確かだが、近隣諸国との相互理解と信頼を深める努力が不十分、ブレが大きく安定に欠けたと評されるだろう。
今秋の国連60周年を期して、日本外交の総力を結集して安保理常任理事国入りに挑んだが、アジア、アフリカ諸国の十分な協力を得られず、米中両国の反対にとどめを刺される形に終わったことが、小泉外交への厳しい国際評価を端的に物語っている。
しかし総選挙の大勝が首相の権威を高め、政権基盤を固めたことで日本外交の名誉回復を図る条件が整い始めた、ともいえる。総選挙の結果に対する内外の論評は、小泉政権の今後の課題として対米、対アジア外交の難しさを揃って指摘したが、その中には首相が絶大な威信を手にした今なら、仮に首相がこだわる靖国参拝を中止しても首相への政治的打撃は軽く、むしろ外交に指導力を発揮したと高く評価されるだろう、とする意見も少なくなかった。
日本が総選挙に没頭した期間の世界の動きも、日本がより積極的なアジア外交に踏み出すよう期待し、催促していたようにみえる。
胡錦涛中国主席は9月３日「中国人民抗日戦争・世界反ファッショ戦争勝利60周年」を記念する六千人集会で、日本との対話と協調を通じて諸問題を解決し、21世紀の中日友好関係を発展させる、と強調、四月の反日デモ以来の対日政策再検討の方向が固まったことを裏付けた。
ブッシュ米大統領は14日、国連60周年記念特別首脳会議で演説し、イラク情勢の厳しい展望とハリケーン災害に対する米国民の批判を反映し、国際協調をより重視していく姿勢を印象づけた。その前日の米中首脳会談も双方が米中関係の安定を望んでいることを明らかにした。
19日には北京の第四回六者協議が初めて共同声明を採択、北朝鮮が核兵器・核計画を放棄、米国には北攻撃の意図のないことを確認した。日朝両国が平壌宣言に従って懸案事項を解決し、国交正常化への措置をとることもうたわれ、翌日、日朝政府間協議の再開合意が発表された。
小泉首相は同15日、国連首脳会議に駆けつけて演説、安保常任理事国への意欲を重ねて強調したが、選挙大勝後の外交姿勢に注目した各国の期待に応える新味は出せなかった。首相にすれば当面は郵政はじめ内政諸改革が最優先であり、『靖国参拝をやめても日中関係が良くなるとはかぎらない』『日本の主張は当然理解されるはずだ』との従来の考え方を改める必要は感じていない。首相が「望むなら長期政権も十分に狙える」との観測を否定し、一年後に退陣する意向を繰り返し表明するのも、外交手直しが必要なら後継者に任せる、といいたいかのようだ。
歴史、文化の背景を異にする他国との利害を調整する外交の仕事に独善は許されず、忍耐強い交渉に加えて、好機を逃さぬ果敢な判断も大切だ。小泉首相が足場を固めた貴重な時間を浪費せず、外交面でもより大きな業績を残すよう意欲を燃やして貰いたいものだ。
（筆者は元共同通信論説委員長）
小泉首相の大勝は、反対派に準備時間を与えず短期決戦に追い込み、争点を郵政改革法案の可否に絞り、同法案に反対した与党議員に「刺客」を放って対決ムードをあおるなど、首相・党総裁が持つ強大な権力をこれまで誰も思いつかなかったほど徹底的に行使し、派手な劇場型選挙を演出して国民を熱狂に巻き込んだ結果だ。「自らの感性を信じ、信念を貫き、独断専行を恐れない」といわれる首相の政治資質が花開き、最大限の成功をおさめた。
このたぐい稀な首相の資質も外交分野では十分な実績をあげていない。四年余の小泉外交は、田中真紀子外相の起用で出足につまづき、ブッシュ大統領との意気投合、靖国神社参拝、金正日総書記との平壌宣言など、首相の個性、感性が異彩を放って強烈な印象を残したが、フォローアップが弱く、国の威信を高めたとは認め難い。ナショナリズムの高揚を支えたことは確かだが、近隣諸国との相互理解と信頼を深める努力が不十分、ブレが大きく安定に欠けたと評されるだろう。
今秋の国連60周年を期して、日本外交の総力を結集して安保理常任理事国入りに挑んだが、アジア、アフリカ諸国の十分な協力を得られず、米中両国の反対にとどめを刺される形に終わったことが、小泉外交への厳しい国際評価を端的に物語っている。
しかし総選挙の大勝が首相の権威を高め、政権基盤を固めたことで日本外交の名誉回復を図る条件が整い始めた、ともいえる。総選挙の結果に対する内外の論評は、小泉政権の今後の課題として対米、対アジア外交の難しさを揃って指摘したが、その中には首相が絶大な威信を手にした今なら、仮に首相がこだわる靖国参拝を中止しても首相への政治的打撃は軽く、むしろ外交に指導力を発揮したと高く評価されるだろう、とする意見も少なくなかった。
日本が総選挙に没頭した期間の世界の動きも、日本がより積極的なアジア外交に踏み出すよう期待し、催促していたようにみえる。
胡錦涛中国主席は9月３日「中国人民抗日戦争・世界反ファッショ戦争勝利60周年」を記念する六千人集会で、日本との対話と協調を通じて諸問題を解決し、21世紀の中日友好関係を発展させる、と強調、四月の反日デモ以来の対日政策再検討の方向が固まったことを裏付けた。
ブッシュ米大統領は14日、国連60周年記念特別首脳会議で演説し、イラク情勢の厳しい展望とハリケーン災害に対する米国民の批判を反映し、国際協調をより重視していく姿勢を印象づけた。その前日の米中首脳会談も双方が米中関係の安定を望んでいることを明らかにした。
19日には北京の第四回六者協議が初めて共同声明を採択、北朝鮮が核兵器・核計画を放棄、米国には北攻撃の意図のないことを確認した。日朝両国が平壌宣言に従って懸案事項を解決し、国交正常化への措置をとることもうたわれ、翌日、日朝政府間協議の再開合意が発表された。
小泉首相は同15日、国連首脳会議に駆けつけて演説、安保常任理事国への意欲を重ねて強調したが、選挙大勝後の外交姿勢に注目した各国の期待に応える新味は出せなかった。首相にすれば当面は郵政はじめ内政諸改革が最優先であり、『靖国参拝をやめても日中関係が良くなるとはかぎらない』『日本の主張は当然理解されるはずだ』との従来の考え方を改める必要は感じていない。首相が「望むなら長期政権も十分に狙える」との観測を否定し、一年後に退陣する意向を繰り返し表明するのも、外交手直しが必要なら後継者に任せる、といいたいかのようだ。
歴史、文化の背景を異にする他国との利害を調整する外交の仕事に独善は許されず、忍耐強い交渉に加えて、好機を逃さぬ果敢な判断も大切だ。小泉首相が足場を固めた貴重な時間を浪費せず、外交面でもより大きな業績を残すよう意欲を燃やして貰いたいものだ。
（筆者は元共同通信論説委員長）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟