How to Deal with a "Strong Russia" revived?
MAGOSAKI Ukeru / Dean, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Defense Academy
December 18, 2007
In the Russian Lower House election that took place on December 2, 2007, the government party, United Russia, which slated President Vladimir Putin himself at the top of the eligible candidates, secured a two-thirds majority of the seats. Including the other parties supporting Putin, the President amassed 90 percent of the votes cast. Although the outcome of the coming Presidential election next year is still unknown, it is certain that Russian politics will continue to be led by Putin. The Russian people, who were thrown into the great turmoil after the collapse of the Soviet Union, no doubt give credit to Putin for the resurrection of a strong Russia and its economic growth.
The biggest factor for Putin's victory lies in the economy. Ironically, it is the United States, which should be the country most concerned about the resurrection of a strong Russia, that has contributed to its revival. Had it not been for the current U.S. policy toward the Middle East, including the Iraq war, there would not have been the surge of the Russian economy, nor would a “Strong Russia” have been revived.
Russia today has achieved a miraculous economic rebirth. In retrospect, Russia was under constant economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union up until 1998. In August 1998, the Russian government was confronted with a financial crisis that forced it to suspend repayment of foreign debt for 90 days. At that time, the Japanese business circles had little interest, if any, in Russia. In contrast, Russia's GDP in the first half of 2007 recorded a real growth of 7.8 percent and is expected to continue to grow at the 6-7 percent per annum for the next few years. In addition, Russia's foreign exchange reserves which have rapidly expanded to rank the third in the world, after China and Japan. This economic revival is the biggest single reason why the Run people are supporting Putin.
For the medium term, it is expected that Russia will continue to maintain high economic growth and plentiful foreign exchange reserves in the future. It is the rise in the oil prices that has enabled the substantial increase of the foreign exchange reserves and provided the basis for the stability of the nation What is the appropriate price of oil in the first place? Until 1998, the oil prices had been sluggish. In those days, Iran assumed the oil price to be 15 dollars per barrel, and, when the price rose above it, they put the balance into a fund, thereby setting up a system to fend off insolvency should the oil prices stayed sluggish. Later on, around 2000, Russia set up a similar fund, assuming the oil price to be 25 dollars per barrel. Consumption of oil in China and other countries may increase, but that is not likely to affect the oil prices too much. The present hike in oil prices is attributable to the political uncertainties in Iraq and elsewhere, starting with the Iraq war launched by the United States. Even today, the Japanese oil business circles maintain that there is no economic justification for oil prices above 45-50 dollars per barrel. What underlies the soaring of the oil prices today to the level of 90-100 dollars per barrel is the perception that the uncertainties in the Middle-East will be further aggravated. Thus, whether or not Russia can achieve economic stability and further growth hinges essentially on whether the situation in the Middle East can be stabilized.
So far, the statements made by American political leaders including presidential candidates have been very tough toward such countries as Iran, and fully supportive of Israel. The situation in the Middle East may, if anything, become more unstable, and there is little likelihood of it calming down. Against this backdrop, the announcement on December 3 by the CIA and other American intelligence agencies that Iran suspended its nuclear development in the autumn of 2003 testifies to the healthiness of the American society. Some force is at work to straighten out the distortions in the American society, and it may have a considerable momentum. It may even change the course of the current in the United States that has been moving towards further confrontation with the Islamic world. Which side will win the tug of war between many American politicians who are basically pro-Israel and inclined toward a confrontation with the Islamic world on the one hand and that part of the public opinion and government agencies which seek cool-headed policies on the other? This will really be the biggest focal point for the next American presidency.
What will become of the oil prices depends on the influence that President Putin wields. Suppose the oil prices remain high. Putin will not yield to Japan about the territorial issue, nor will the Russian people allow it. Under such circumstances, how will the Russo-Japanese relations be? The factor for change lies in the economic relations between Japan and Russia. Seeing the Russian economy boom, Toyota Motors and many other Japanese companies have decided to make investments in Russia. I am not sure to what extent the Japanese enterprises are aware of this, but there are "grabbing hands" lurking in both the government circles and the Mafia, the shadowy power.
It will not be possible for Japanese private companies to deal with these "grabbing hands" alone. The "grabbing hands" are stronger than many Japanese people imagine. To deal effectively with them, it is essential for the Japanese side to establish a much closer relationship with Russia's Presidential Executive Office, which has overwhelming power in the country. Actually, Japan is fully capable of setting up such a relationship. During the period in which the Russian economy was in turmoil, there was very little done about the Russian manufacturing industry. Now the Presidential Executive Office is contemplating a state-led industrial policy. Which country can claim to have succeeded in state-led industrial policy while accepting the market principle ? It is none other than Japan. The post-war Japan achieved a singular success in industrial policies under the leadership of the government, gradually shifting priorities from energy to heavy industry and then to knowledge-intensive sectors. This Japanese experience provides something that the Russian presidency can certainly emulate. It would therefore be of great importance for both Japan and the Russian presidential office to establish cooperative relations regarding economic and industrial policies. That would be the best means of ensuring that the Japanese companies investing in Russia can avoid being faced with severely challenging situations and earn reasonable profits. The Japanese business circles and the government need to work closely in tandem over Russian policy.
The author is the Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, the National Defense Academy, and former Ambassador to Iran.
The biggest factor for Putin's victory lies in the economy. Ironically, it is the United States, which should be the country most concerned about the resurrection of a strong Russia, that has contributed to its revival. Had it not been for the current U.S. policy toward the Middle East, including the Iraq war, there would not have been the surge of the Russian economy, nor would a “Strong Russia” have been revived.
Russia today has achieved a miraculous economic rebirth. In retrospect, Russia was under constant economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union up until 1998. In August 1998, the Russian government was confronted with a financial crisis that forced it to suspend repayment of foreign debt for 90 days. At that time, the Japanese business circles had little interest, if any, in Russia. In contrast, Russia's GDP in the first half of 2007 recorded a real growth of 7.8 percent and is expected to continue to grow at the 6-7 percent per annum for the next few years. In addition, Russia's foreign exchange reserves which have rapidly expanded to rank the third in the world, after China and Japan. This economic revival is the biggest single reason why the Run people are supporting Putin.
For the medium term, it is expected that Russia will continue to maintain high economic growth and plentiful foreign exchange reserves in the future. It is the rise in the oil prices that has enabled the substantial increase of the foreign exchange reserves and provided the basis for the stability of the nation What is the appropriate price of oil in the first place? Until 1998, the oil prices had been sluggish. In those days, Iran assumed the oil price to be 15 dollars per barrel, and, when the price rose above it, they put the balance into a fund, thereby setting up a system to fend off insolvency should the oil prices stayed sluggish. Later on, around 2000, Russia set up a similar fund, assuming the oil price to be 25 dollars per barrel. Consumption of oil in China and other countries may increase, but that is not likely to affect the oil prices too much. The present hike in oil prices is attributable to the political uncertainties in Iraq and elsewhere, starting with the Iraq war launched by the United States. Even today, the Japanese oil business circles maintain that there is no economic justification for oil prices above 45-50 dollars per barrel. What underlies the soaring of the oil prices today to the level of 90-100 dollars per barrel is the perception that the uncertainties in the Middle-East will be further aggravated. Thus, whether or not Russia can achieve economic stability and further growth hinges essentially on whether the situation in the Middle East can be stabilized.
So far, the statements made by American political leaders including presidential candidates have been very tough toward such countries as Iran, and fully supportive of Israel. The situation in the Middle East may, if anything, become more unstable, and there is little likelihood of it calming down. Against this backdrop, the announcement on December 3 by the CIA and other American intelligence agencies that Iran suspended its nuclear development in the autumn of 2003 testifies to the healthiness of the American society. Some force is at work to straighten out the distortions in the American society, and it may have a considerable momentum. It may even change the course of the current in the United States that has been moving towards further confrontation with the Islamic world. Which side will win the tug of war between many American politicians who are basically pro-Israel and inclined toward a confrontation with the Islamic world on the one hand and that part of the public opinion and government agencies which seek cool-headed policies on the other? This will really be the biggest focal point for the next American presidency.
What will become of the oil prices depends on the influence that President Putin wields. Suppose the oil prices remain high. Putin will not yield to Japan about the territorial issue, nor will the Russian people allow it. Under such circumstances, how will the Russo-Japanese relations be? The factor for change lies in the economic relations between Japan and Russia. Seeing the Russian economy boom, Toyota Motors and many other Japanese companies have decided to make investments in Russia. I am not sure to what extent the Japanese enterprises are aware of this, but there are "grabbing hands" lurking in both the government circles and the Mafia, the shadowy power.
It will not be possible for Japanese private companies to deal with these "grabbing hands" alone. The "grabbing hands" are stronger than many Japanese people imagine. To deal effectively with them, it is essential for the Japanese side to establish a much closer relationship with Russia's Presidential Executive Office, which has overwhelming power in the country. Actually, Japan is fully capable of setting up such a relationship. During the period in which the Russian economy was in turmoil, there was very little done about the Russian manufacturing industry. Now the Presidential Executive Office is contemplating a state-led industrial policy. Which country can claim to have succeeded in state-led industrial policy while accepting the market principle ? It is none other than Japan. The post-war Japan achieved a singular success in industrial policies under the leadership of the government, gradually shifting priorities from energy to heavy industry and then to knowledge-intensive sectors. This Japanese experience provides something that the Russian presidency can certainly emulate. It would therefore be of great importance for both Japan and the Russian presidential office to establish cooperative relations regarding economic and industrial policies. That would be the best means of ensuring that the Japanese companies investing in Russia can avoid being faced with severely challenging situations and earn reasonable profits. The Japanese business circles and the government need to work closely in tandem over Russian policy.
The author is the Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, the National Defense Academy, and former Ambassador to Iran.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
復活した「力のロシア」にどう対応するか
孫崎 享 / 防衛大学校 人文社会学群長
2007年 12月 18日
１２月２日ロシア下院選挙が実施され、プーチン大統領自らを候補者名簿第一位に記載した与党・統一ロシアが３分の２以上の議席を確保した。他のプーチン大統領支持の政党を含めれば９割を支持で固めた。来年の大統領選挙がどうなるかは不明であるが、今後ともプーチン主導の政治が行なわれていくことは、確実である。ロシア国民はソ連崩壊後の大混乱を経験し、強いロシアの復活と経済成長をプーチン大統領の成果とみていることに間違いはない。
プーチン大統領の勝利の最大の原因は経済にある。かつ皮肉なことに、「力のロシア」の復活を最も懸念すべき国は米国であるが、今日のロシアの復活は米国のおかげである。イラク戦争をはじめとする今日の米国中東政策がなければ、ロシア経済の復活はなかった。同じく「力のロシア」も復活出来なかった。
ロシアは今や、奇跡ともいえる経済復活を果たした。振り返れば、ロシアはソ連崩壊以降９８年までほぼ一貫して経済危機の中にあった。９８年8月政府は対外債務の９０日間支払停止を行なう財政危機に直面した。この時期、日本の経済界はロシアにほぼ無関心といっていい。しかし、ロシアは０７年上半期の実質GDP成長率を７．８％と記録し、今後数年６－７％の経済成長が予測されている。かつロシアの外貨準備高は急速に伸び、中国、日本に次いで世界第3の位置にある。この経済の復活こそ、ロシア国民がプーチン大統領支持を行なっている最大の要因である。
中期的にみれば、ロシアの経済の高度成長、高い外貨準備高は今後も継続すると予測される。ソ連の外貨が大幅に伸び、国家安定の軸を作ったのは石油価格の高騰にある。石油価格の適正価格はどのあたりであろうか。１９９８年まで石油価格は低迷した。この時期イランはバーレル当たり１５ドルを想定し、これより高ければ基金に資金を貯め、低迷した時財政破綻が起こらない制度を作った。その後２０００年代ロシアは２５ドルを想定し、同種の基金を作った。
中国などの消費が拡大したとしても石油価格にそう大規模な影響を与えていない。石油の高騰はイラクなどの政情不安によるが、それは米国のイラク戦争に始まっている。日本の石油関係者は今日でも、バーレル当たり４５-５０ドル以上になる経済合理性は見つからないとしている。今日バーレル当たり９０ドルー１００ドルに達しているのは中東が更に不安定になるという認識が基礎にある。従って、ロシアの経済安定が出来るか、更に大きい経済成長が達成されるかの根本は中東情勢が安定するか否かである。
これまで、次期大統領候補を含む米国政治家の発言を見るとイラン等に厳しく、全面的にイスラエル支持で、中東の不安の増大する可能性すらあれ、沈静化は望みうすであった。この中、CIAなど米国情報機関が１２月３日「２００３年秋イラン核開発中断」を発表したことは、米国の健全性を示すものある。何か米国社会に歪みを正す力が動き始めた。それも相当の勢力をもっていそうだ。この力は、イスラム圏との対決に突き進んできた米国の流れを変える可能性がある。今後は基本的にイスラエル寄りで、イスラム社会との対決を支持する多くの米国政治家と、沈着な政策を求める世論及び国家機関の一部との綱引きがどうなるか、それは次期米国大統領時代の最大の注目点である。
石油価格がどうなるか、それはプーチン大統領の勢力に反映する。当面高止まりと想定しよう。プーチンは領土問題で日本に譲歩することはない。国民も了承しない。その中、日ロ関係はどうなるのか。変化の要因は日ロ経済関係にある。ロシア経済の好況を見て、トヨタ自動車など多数の企業がロシア進出を決めた。何処まで日本の企業が認識しているか不明であるが、ロシアには政府及び陰の力マフィア双方に「grabbing hands（略奪する手）」がある。日本の民間企業だけでこの「略奪する手」に対処出来ない。「略奪する手」は日本の多くの人が想像するより激しい。これに対処するには日本側がロシア国内で圧倒的力を有する大統領府との緊密な関係を樹立する必要がある。実は日本はここと関係を樹立出来る十分の可能性を持っている。ロシア経済が混乱していた時期、ロシアの工業は放置されていた。今、大統領府は国家主導の下での産業政策を考えている。市場主義の理念を受け入れつつ、国家主導の産業政策で成功したのはどこか。日本である。戦後日本はエネルギー、重工業、知識集約型と重点を移しつつ国家主導の産業政策で成功した。この経験は必ずロシア大統領府の参考になる。まずは経済産業政策で日本とロシア大統領府との関係を樹立することが、日ロ関係において、日本のロシアへの進出企業が厳しい事態に直面せず、合理的利益を確保出来る最良の手段と思う。ロシア政策をめぐり、日本の経済界と政府が緊密に連携をとる必要がある。
（筆者は防衛大学校人文社会学群長、元駐イラン大使）
プーチン大統領の勝利の最大の原因は経済にある。かつ皮肉なことに、「力のロシア」の復活を最も懸念すべき国は米国であるが、今日のロシアの復活は米国のおかげである。イラク戦争をはじめとする今日の米国中東政策がなければ、ロシア経済の復活はなかった。同じく「力のロシア」も復活出来なかった。
ロシアは今や、奇跡ともいえる経済復活を果たした。振り返れば、ロシアはソ連崩壊以降９８年までほぼ一貫して経済危機の中にあった。９８年8月政府は対外債務の９０日間支払停止を行なう財政危機に直面した。この時期、日本の経済界はロシアにほぼ無関心といっていい。しかし、ロシアは０７年上半期の実質GDP成長率を７．８％と記録し、今後数年６－７％の経済成長が予測されている。かつロシアの外貨準備高は急速に伸び、中国、日本に次いで世界第3の位置にある。この経済の復活こそ、ロシア国民がプーチン大統領支持を行なっている最大の要因である。
中期的にみれば、ロシアの経済の高度成長、高い外貨準備高は今後も継続すると予測される。ソ連の外貨が大幅に伸び、国家安定の軸を作ったのは石油価格の高騰にある。石油価格の適正価格はどのあたりであろうか。１９９８年まで石油価格は低迷した。この時期イランはバーレル当たり１５ドルを想定し、これより高ければ基金に資金を貯め、低迷した時財政破綻が起こらない制度を作った。その後２０００年代ロシアは２５ドルを想定し、同種の基金を作った。
中国などの消費が拡大したとしても石油価格にそう大規模な影響を与えていない。石油の高騰はイラクなどの政情不安によるが、それは米国のイラク戦争に始まっている。日本の石油関係者は今日でも、バーレル当たり４５-５０ドル以上になる経済合理性は見つからないとしている。今日バーレル当たり９０ドルー１００ドルに達しているのは中東が更に不安定になるという認識が基礎にある。従って、ロシアの経済安定が出来るか、更に大きい経済成長が達成されるかの根本は中東情勢が安定するか否かである。
これまで、次期大統領候補を含む米国政治家の発言を見るとイラン等に厳しく、全面的にイスラエル支持で、中東の不安の増大する可能性すらあれ、沈静化は望みうすであった。この中、CIAなど米国情報機関が１２月３日「２００３年秋イラン核開発中断」を発表したことは、米国の健全性を示すものある。何か米国社会に歪みを正す力が動き始めた。それも相当の勢力をもっていそうだ。この力は、イスラム圏との対決に突き進んできた米国の流れを変える可能性がある。今後は基本的にイスラエル寄りで、イスラム社会との対決を支持する多くの米国政治家と、沈着な政策を求める世論及び国家機関の一部との綱引きがどうなるか、それは次期米国大統領時代の最大の注目点である。
石油価格がどうなるか、それはプーチン大統領の勢力に反映する。当面高止まりと想定しよう。プーチンは領土問題で日本に譲歩することはない。国民も了承しない。その中、日ロ関係はどうなるのか。変化の要因は日ロ経済関係にある。ロシア経済の好況を見て、トヨタ自動車など多数の企業がロシア進出を決めた。何処まで日本の企業が認識しているか不明であるが、ロシアには政府及び陰の力マフィア双方に「grabbing hands（略奪する手）」がある。日本の民間企業だけでこの「略奪する手」に対処出来ない。「略奪する手」は日本の多くの人が想像するより激しい。これに対処するには日本側がロシア国内で圧倒的力を有する大統領府との緊密な関係を樹立する必要がある。実は日本はここと関係を樹立出来る十分の可能性を持っている。ロシア経済が混乱していた時期、ロシアの工業は放置されていた。今、大統領府は国家主導の下での産業政策を考えている。市場主義の理念を受け入れつつ、国家主導の産業政策で成功したのはどこか。日本である。戦後日本はエネルギー、重工業、知識集約型と重点を移しつつ国家主導の産業政策で成功した。この経験は必ずロシア大統領府の参考になる。まずは経済産業政策で日本とロシア大統領府との関係を樹立することが、日ロ関係において、日本のロシアへの進出企業が厳しい事態に直面せず、合理的利益を確保出来る最良の手段と思う。ロシア政策をめぐり、日本の経済界と政府が緊密に連携をとる必要がある。
（筆者は防衛大学校人文社会学群長、元駐イラン大使）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟