July 9, 2009

On June 4, U.S. President Barack Obama gave a well-orchestrated speech in Cairo. Choosing Cairo University, a major educational institution in the Middle East, as the venue of the speech, and also gaining the support of Al-Azhar University, which is considered the highest authority on Islam, were both effective in giving the impression of a "new beginning" between the United States and the Islamic world and a "reconciliation with Islam."

In Japan, foreign ministry officials, reporters and ambassadors from Middle East countries were invited to a commemorative reception held at the official residence of Charge d'Affaires James P. Zumwalt, where a video of the President's speech was shown on large-screen television. It was an exceptionally aggressive publicity effort, considering that the speech did not even take place in Japan.

One could say that in comparison, the speech itself was designed to please all and offered nothing new. Nevertheless, it represents the basic stance of the United States in dealing with issues such as the Middle East peace process, Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. The speech was timed for the day before the start of the Six-Day War, on June 5, 1967. One theory has it that the day was chosen in consideration of the fact that the grave issue of occupation had its beginnings in that war.

While the speech covered a broad spectrum of issues, I was particularly impressed by the part where President Obama stated that "no system of government can or should be imposed upon one nation by any other." He paused for a moment, but there was no applause. The audience was probably not sure where he was going next.

However, once the speech resumed with references to "government that is transparent," "freedom" and "human rights," a round of enthusiastic applause came from the audience. And as the President went on to say that power must be maintained "through consent, not coercion" and pointed out that governments must respect the rights of minorities and show a spirit of tolerance, an audience shouted: "Barack Obama, we love you!" to which the President responded: "Thank you."

There must have been an unspoken message behind this dialogue. Democratization of the Middle East advocated by the previous administration of President Bush was cut short in disrepute, and the Regime Change Theory of overthrowing hostile governments without hesitation ended up amplifying resentment towards the United States. Through his comments, President Obama seemed to be saying: "you can rest assured because the United States will no longer take such a course of action."

But there is more to this. The younger generation of Egyptians must surely have sensed the criticism against the Mubarak government in this speech. Egypt's President Mubarak has sat on the throne of power for 28 years since 1981, and there is speculation he intends to hand over the presidency to his son in a de facto inheritance of power. While Egypt is a pro-American country, seen from U.S. standards there are some aspects that can hardly be described as a democratic state.

In the case of Saudi Arabia, which was President Obama's first stop before visiting Egypt, an absolute monarchy has continued into the world of the 21st century in the absence of a clearly stated constitution, political parties, and a parliamentary body. More than a few Middle East governments, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, must have sighed in relief at hearing the Obama speech. Regardless of whether "democratizing the Middle East" was a good or bad idea, these governments had succeeded in eluding the pressure to democratize to reach the point of a "new beginning" with the United States.

While engaging the Islamic world in a strained relationship would defeat the purpose, adopting an overly conciliatory tone would mean ignoring the dissatisfaction of the masses. Such is the dilemma faced by President Obama. And his speech gave us a renewed awareness about the difficult relationship between the United States and Islam.

The writer is Deputy Chief Editorial Writer of the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.

2009年 7月 9日

オバマ米大統領のカイロ演説（６月４日）は、なかなか演出が行き届いていた。中東の一大教育機関・カイロ大学を演説会場に選び、イスラムの最高権威とされるアズハルの協力も得たのは、米国とイスラム世界の「新たな始まり」や「イスラムとの和解」を印象付ける上で効果的だった。

そして日本では、ズムワルト米臨時代理大使公邸に外務省やマスコミの関係者、中東各国の駐日大使らが招かれ、大画面のテレビで大統領演説のビデオを流して記念レセプションが催された。日本での演説でもないのに、きわめて意欲的な広報活動と言わねばなるまい。

その割に演説は総花的で新味がなかったという見方もあるが、中東和平やイラク、アフガニスタン、イランなどの問題に取り組む「米国の基本姿勢」と考えておきたい。演説日は67年の第３次中東戦争の開戦日（６月５日）の前の日。この戦争を境に深刻な占領地問題が生まれたことを考慮して、前日に演説を設定したとの説もあるという。

演説内容は多岐にわたるが、個人的に印象に残ったのは「統治システムは、ある国からの押し付けが可能なものではなく、押し付けられるべきでもない」というくだりである。大統領はここで一呼吸置いたにもかかわらず、大きな拍手はなかった。聴衆は、何を言い出すのか、にわかには測りかねたのだろう。

しかし、続いて「政府の透明性」や「自由」「人権」などに言及した時は大きな拍手がわいた。さらに大統領は、権力の維持は「圧政ではなく合意」に基づくと述べ、政治には少数派の権利尊重や寛容の精神が必要だなどと指摘した。そして「こうした要素がないなら、選挙だけでは真の民主主義は実現できない」と訴えた時は「バラク・オバマ、愛してる」という声が聴衆から飛び、大統領は「ありがとう」と答えたのである。

このやり取りの裏には言葉にできない思いが隠されていただろう。ブッシュ政権の「中東民主化」は評判が悪いまま挫折し、敵対政権の打倒も辞さない「レジーム・チェンジ」論も米国への反感を増幅する結果になった。オバマ大統領の一連の発言は「もう米国はそんなことをしないから安心して」と言っているように聞こえる。

しかし、それだけではない。エジプトの若者たちはムバラク政権への批判も敏感に感じ取ったはずである。81年から28年も権力の座にあるムバラク大統領は、息子に大統領職を譲り事実上の世襲を狙っているとの観測もある。エジプトは親米国家ではあるが、米国の基準から見れば、とても民主国家とは言いきれない面がある。

エジプトの前にオバマ大統領が訪れたサウジアラビアの場合は、明確な憲法も政党も国会もなく、21世紀の世界で「絶対王政」が続いている。エジプトやサウジも含めて、オバマ演説に安堵した中東の政府は少なくあるまい。「中東民主化」構想のよしあしはともかく、彼らは民主化の圧力をかわし、米国との「新たな始まり」に至ったからだ。

イスラム世界と険悪に対立しては元も子もないが、あまりに融和的では民衆の不満に目をつぶることになる。オバマ氏はそんなジレンマに直面していよう。演説は、米国とイスラムの関係の難しさを改めて感じさせたのである。

（筆者は毎日新聞論説副委員長。）