Time for Seeking a New Stability
MIKURIYA Takashi / Professor, University of Tokyo
November 6, 2009
The latest election ended in a purge of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In sum, disgust at the opportunistic nature of the LDP - witnessed over the past few years in the annual switch of its leadership and reluctance to dissolve the lower house - had permeated the Japanese mind alongside a desire to eliminate all that was LDP, and culminated in the election results.
Instead of remaining a political phenomenon, the latest LDP defeat may trigger the collapse of every aspect of the Japanese system that overlaps with what the LDP signifies. Let us take the business community, for example. If we are to abolish corporate donations in earnest, the existence of the business community as we know it will lose significance. Each company will be left to take its own stand and ponder its relationship with politics.
Likewise with the bureaucracy. The bureaucratic system that had been building a special relationship with the LDP is now facing a dead end, and is unlikely to remain in its present form under a Democratic Party government.
With each election, the LDP was granted a "general power of attorney" from the people, and contradictory policies were smoothed over through the various maneuverings of politicians once the election was over. Come next election, and the LDP would once again demand the people for that same power. This had been the cycle. And it worked splendidly during the period of continued growth, when the politicians and the bureaucratic system was in synch. However, in times of decline, it is difficult to obtain overall approval from the people. First of all, the pie will not expand, and secondly, there is a growing need to prioritize on how to divide and allocate that pie.
The Democratic Party, which had remained an opposition party for more than a decade since its founding, has plenty of policy ideas and is also adept at criticizing existing policies. Of course, the party's policy menu is nothing but a pie in the sky. But having repeatedly criticized the LDP over many years, the party can now argue effectively on some issues. Namely, these are issues such as the pension problem, the environment and so-called public funding problem.
From the Democratic Party standpoint, its latest proposals on children's benefits, free public high school tuitions and free highways - while criticized by some as dole-out policies – carry inbuilt criticism of the LDP and the bureaucratic system. The LDP only gives out benefits indirectly, to make room for intermediary exploitation or mediation by eager institutions that are home to parachuting retired bureaucrats. In contrast, the Democratic Party is seeking direct payouts, in an expression of its intention to eliminate such exploitation and intermediary institutions.
As symbolized by this point, there is a crucial difference between benefits offered by the Democratic Party and benefits offered by the LDP. This gap will gradually expand in future politics. The direction taken by the Democratic Party, of breaking away from bureaucratic rule, delivers a direct blow to the old system and will no doubt cause considerable friction. However, this will not directly bring about a return of the LDP. Bureaucrats are fundamentally obedient once the government establishes basic stability. Furthermore, should the Democratic Party succeed in forging a new relationship with the bureaucratic system, a different type of tension will arise between the political party and bureaucracy. For all I know, that will vastly expand the options for policy making in this country.
The Democratic Party must quickly instill a sense of stability that it really means business. It must draw up a schedule for the remaining hundred days of the year and seek speedy execution and put the finishing touches to some of its key policies. It could reshuffle the budget or develop a new Japan-U.S. relationship. As long as it produces visible results, the people will continue to endorse a Democratic Party government.
The media will also expect quick results. Failure to produce them or fumbling in some respect or another will invite immediate criticism against the government. But it is only natural for a party that came to power for the first time to take some time before finding its feet. No government can last unless we recognize the handicap. It is easy to destroy, but extremely difficult to create something. Like the hundred-day honeymoon between the new administration and the media seen in the United States, for the time being, we should look on with a kind heart.
The writer is Professor of Japanese political history at the University of Tokyo. This is a summary of an article that first appeared in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper on September 2, 2009, published with the writer's approval.
Instead of remaining a political phenomenon, the latest LDP defeat may trigger the collapse of every aspect of the Japanese system that overlaps with what the LDP signifies. Let us take the business community, for example. If we are to abolish corporate donations in earnest, the existence of the business community as we know it will lose significance. Each company will be left to take its own stand and ponder its relationship with politics.
Likewise with the bureaucracy. The bureaucratic system that had been building a special relationship with the LDP is now facing a dead end, and is unlikely to remain in its present form under a Democratic Party government.
With each election, the LDP was granted a "general power of attorney" from the people, and contradictory policies were smoothed over through the various maneuverings of politicians once the election was over. Come next election, and the LDP would once again demand the people for that same power. This had been the cycle. And it worked splendidly during the period of continued growth, when the politicians and the bureaucratic system was in synch. However, in times of decline, it is difficult to obtain overall approval from the people. First of all, the pie will not expand, and secondly, there is a growing need to prioritize on how to divide and allocate that pie.
The Democratic Party, which had remained an opposition party for more than a decade since its founding, has plenty of policy ideas and is also adept at criticizing existing policies. Of course, the party's policy menu is nothing but a pie in the sky. But having repeatedly criticized the LDP over many years, the party can now argue effectively on some issues. Namely, these are issues such as the pension problem, the environment and so-called public funding problem.
From the Democratic Party standpoint, its latest proposals on children's benefits, free public high school tuitions and free highways - while criticized by some as dole-out policies – carry inbuilt criticism of the LDP and the bureaucratic system. The LDP only gives out benefits indirectly, to make room for intermediary exploitation or mediation by eager institutions that are home to parachuting retired bureaucrats. In contrast, the Democratic Party is seeking direct payouts, in an expression of its intention to eliminate such exploitation and intermediary institutions.
As symbolized by this point, there is a crucial difference between benefits offered by the Democratic Party and benefits offered by the LDP. This gap will gradually expand in future politics. The direction taken by the Democratic Party, of breaking away from bureaucratic rule, delivers a direct blow to the old system and will no doubt cause considerable friction. However, this will not directly bring about a return of the LDP. Bureaucrats are fundamentally obedient once the government establishes basic stability. Furthermore, should the Democratic Party succeed in forging a new relationship with the bureaucratic system, a different type of tension will arise between the political party and bureaucracy. For all I know, that will vastly expand the options for policy making in this country.
The Democratic Party must quickly instill a sense of stability that it really means business. It must draw up a schedule for the remaining hundred days of the year and seek speedy execution and put the finishing touches to some of its key policies. It could reshuffle the budget or develop a new Japan-U.S. relationship. As long as it produces visible results, the people will continue to endorse a Democratic Party government.
The media will also expect quick results. Failure to produce them or fumbling in some respect or another will invite immediate criticism against the government. But it is only natural for a party that came to power for the first time to take some time before finding its feet. No government can last unless we recognize the handicap. It is easy to destroy, but extremely difficult to create something. Like the hundred-day honeymoon between the new administration and the media seen in the United States, for the time being, we should look on with a kind heart.
The writer is Professor of Japanese political history at the University of Tokyo. This is a summary of an article that first appeared in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper on September 2, 2009, published with the writer's approval.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
新たな安定模索の時
御厨 貴 / 東京大学教授
2009年 11月 6日
今回は自民党パージの選挙だった。つまりここ数年の自民党トップの一年ごとの交代とか、いつまでも解散しないといった便宜主義的な自民党的なるものへの嫌悪感と同時に、それを排除したいという気分が国民にまん延した結果だと見るべきだろう。
今回の自民党の下野は、単なる政治上のレベルにとどまらず、自民党的なるものと重なるあらゆる日本のシステムの崩壊の引き金になるのではないか。例えば財界。企業献金を本当に廃止するなら、今のような財界が存在する意味は薄れる。それぞれの企業が独自に構えて政治との関係性を考えればすむからである。
官僚システムもしかりだ。自民党との間に特殊な関係性を構築してきた官僚システムは完全に行き詰まり、民主党政権下で、今の形で残ることはあり得まい。
自民党は選挙のたびに国民から「包括委任」を受け、選挙後に政治家たちの様々な動きの中で、相矛盾する政策でも、それをそつなくこなしてきた。そして次の選挙で国民に包括委任を迫る、というサイクルを描いてきた。これは政治家と官僚システムがうまくかみあっていた右肩上がりの時代には、最もうまく機能していた。だが右肩下がりの時代、国民から包括委任を取り付けるのは難しい。なぜなら、第一にパイは増えず、第二にパイをどう分配するか、優先順位を付ける必要が高まったからである。
結党以来十年あまり野党であり続けた民主党は、政策のアイディアは豊富で現行政策への批判も上手だ。もちろんそうした政策メニューはすべて絵に描いたもちなのだが、長年自民党批判を繰り返す中で、いくつかの問題では有効な議論ができるようになった。例えば、年金問題、環境問題、それにいわゆる財源の問題などがある。
一部ではばらまきと批判されるが、今回の子ども手当てや公立高の授業料、高速料金の無料化は、民主党にすれば、自民党や官僚システムへの批判を中に抱合している。自民党はこうした給付を間接的にしか行わない。そこに中間搾取、あるいはそれを担う天下り機関を介在させるからだ。対して民主党は直接給付であり、それはそうした中間搾取や天下り機関を介在させないという意図の表れである。
これに象徴されるように、民主党の給付と自民党の給付は決定的に仕組みが異なる。これからの政治は、この違いが次第に拡大していく。官僚支配脱却という民主党の方向は、旧来型のシステムを直撃し、相当のあつれきを生むだろう。だがそれは、自民党への回帰に直結しない。官僚とは基本的に政権が安定すれば、その支配に服する存在だからである。しかも自民党とは異なる官僚システムとの新たな関係を築くことに民主党が成功すれば、政党と官僚との間に別の緊張関係が生じる。それは恐らくこの国の政策の決め方を、はるかに豊富にする。
民主党政権は必ず何かをやるという安定感を早いうちに植え付ける必要がある。年内１００日間の工程表を作ってその実現を急ぎ、目玉となる政策のいくつかの政策を仕上げる必要がある。それは予算の組み替えでもいいし、日米関係の新たな構築であってもよい。目に見える成果がわかれば、国民はその後も民主党政権を信任する。
メデイアもまたせっかちだ。成果が出ない、何かもたもたしているとなると、たちどころに政権批判が始まるだろう。だが初めて政権を取った党がもたつくのは当然で、ハンディを認めない限り、どんな政権も長続きしない。壊すのはたやすいが、何かをつくるのは極めて難しい。発足１００日は政権と蜜月である米国メディアのように、当面暖かく見守る必要もあろう。
（筆者は日本政治史専攻の東京大学教授である。本稿は９月２日の日本経済新聞に掲載された記事の、筆者の了承を得た要約である。）
今回の自民党の下野は、単なる政治上のレベルにとどまらず、自民党的なるものと重なるあらゆる日本のシステムの崩壊の引き金になるのではないか。例えば財界。企業献金を本当に廃止するなら、今のような財界が存在する意味は薄れる。それぞれの企業が独自に構えて政治との関係性を考えればすむからである。
官僚システムもしかりだ。自民党との間に特殊な関係性を構築してきた官僚システムは完全に行き詰まり、民主党政権下で、今の形で残ることはあり得まい。
自民党は選挙のたびに国民から「包括委任」を受け、選挙後に政治家たちの様々な動きの中で、相矛盾する政策でも、それをそつなくこなしてきた。そして次の選挙で国民に包括委任を迫る、というサイクルを描いてきた。これは政治家と官僚システムがうまくかみあっていた右肩上がりの時代には、最もうまく機能していた。だが右肩下がりの時代、国民から包括委任を取り付けるのは難しい。なぜなら、第一にパイは増えず、第二にパイをどう分配するか、優先順位を付ける必要が高まったからである。
結党以来十年あまり野党であり続けた民主党は、政策のアイディアは豊富で現行政策への批判も上手だ。もちろんそうした政策メニューはすべて絵に描いたもちなのだが、長年自民党批判を繰り返す中で、いくつかの問題では有効な議論ができるようになった。例えば、年金問題、環境問題、それにいわゆる財源の問題などがある。
一部ではばらまきと批判されるが、今回の子ども手当てや公立高の授業料、高速料金の無料化は、民主党にすれば、自民党や官僚システムへの批判を中に抱合している。自民党はこうした給付を間接的にしか行わない。そこに中間搾取、あるいはそれを担う天下り機関を介在させるからだ。対して民主党は直接給付であり、それはそうした中間搾取や天下り機関を介在させないという意図の表れである。
これに象徴されるように、民主党の給付と自民党の給付は決定的に仕組みが異なる。これからの政治は、この違いが次第に拡大していく。官僚支配脱却という民主党の方向は、旧来型のシステムを直撃し、相当のあつれきを生むだろう。だがそれは、自民党への回帰に直結しない。官僚とは基本的に政権が安定すれば、その支配に服する存在だからである。しかも自民党とは異なる官僚システムとの新たな関係を築くことに民主党が成功すれば、政党と官僚との間に別の緊張関係が生じる。それは恐らくこの国の政策の決め方を、はるかに豊富にする。
民主党政権は必ず何かをやるという安定感を早いうちに植え付ける必要がある。年内１００日間の工程表を作ってその実現を急ぎ、目玉となる政策のいくつかの政策を仕上げる必要がある。それは予算の組み替えでもいいし、日米関係の新たな構築であってもよい。目に見える成果がわかれば、国民はその後も民主党政権を信任する。
メデイアもまたせっかちだ。成果が出ない、何かもたもたしているとなると、たちどころに政権批判が始まるだろう。だが初めて政権を取った党がもたつくのは当然で、ハンディを認めない限り、どんな政権も長続きしない。壊すのはたやすいが、何かをつくるのは極めて難しい。発足１００日は政権と蜜月である米国メディアのように、当面暖かく見守る必要もあろう。
（筆者は日本政治史専攻の東京大学教授である。本稿は９月２日の日本経済新聞に掲載された記事の、筆者の了承を得た要約である。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟