A Proposal for Post-2015
OKAMURA Kunio / Senior Special Advisor, JICA
January 16, 2013
The Liberal Democratic Party scored a landslide victory in the latest election for the House of Representatives, prompting the media to recommend various policies for the newly formed government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In addition to economic measures and the nuclear energy issue, many of these proposals also address foreign policy. While most of the policies are focused on the tense situation in our neighboring region, I would like to venture a proposal from a global perspective on how Japan could contribute to enhancing the common good of the international community.
No doubt many of you have heard of the "Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)." They represent a common framework created by integrating the existing development goals of the international community into goals for the 21st century, which were laid out in the Millennium Declaration adopted at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000.
The Millennium Declaration established eight goals to be attained by 2015 along with concrete benchmarks, and its adoption was hailed as a remarkable accomplishment at the time. It has definitely contributed to stimulating interest in issues faced by developing countries, and particularly to raising awareness on the benefits provided by development to each individual and on human development, and to widely sharing the importance of this aspect. Ahead of 2015, the target year for accomplishing the goals, a last-minute effort is underway towards attaining the goals for a specific development theme or region where disparities have emerged in terms of progress.
Concurrently, discussions have begun on new goals to be pursued beyond 2015. Conferences are being held on a frequent basis, led by various countries and institutions including Japan. In July 2012, the U.N. also set up a high-level panel, which will submit its proposals for post-2015 development goals to the Secretary-General. Numerous opinions are being presented on maintaining the direction taken thus far, introducing new goals, targets and indicators, making them simple and measurable, etc. The Japanese government has been emphasizing the importance of Human Security as a guiding principle, mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in view of the Great East Japan Earthquake and emerging vulnerability of Asian countries to natural disasters, reinforced efforts for health based on existing goals.
I have no objections to giving priority to efforts on current challenges in setting the new goals. I nevertheless feel we should also introduce new development goals that will become significant issues in the next ten to fifteen years. By incorporating them into the goals, they will become universal challenges to be shared by the international community into the future. They will in turn serve as guidelines in a united effort by every country in the world for mobilizing resources that are available not only in the government sector but also in the private sector. What then should we choose as the new goal, out of the diverse challenges that exist?
I would like to propose sustainable urban development. According to U.N. statistics, Japan's urban population is outstandingly high among the major economies at 91.3% as of 2011. Meanwhile, urban populations in developing countries are expected to double from approximately 1.69 billion in 1995 to approximately 3.23 billion by 2020. In general, urbanization is seen in a promising light as the driving force of economic growth. However, in most cases response is found lagging in issues that accompany population concentration, including environmental issues such as waste and air pollution, or disasters. It is difficult to keep up with the enormous investment in infrastructure required by urbanization. Let me provide some concrete figures to illustrate the severity of the problem.
Over 80% of greenhouse gases are of urban origin, and over 80% of the costs for adapting to climate change are allocated to urban regions. Today, 67% of the demand for primary energy originates in urban regions, and this is expected to rise to 73% by 2030. According to OECD forecasts, urban air pollution will continue to deteriorate and become the No.1 cause of environment-related deaths by 2050, and deaths caused by exposure to particulate matter (PM) among the younger generation are expected to double to 3.6 million.
In Asia, the quality of water in urban rivers and groundwater has declined in many countries, 820 million people live in urban slums and 140 million city dwellers have no access to a clean water supply. There is a close correlation between economic growth and urban waste; in countries that generate average volumes of waste, an increase of $200 in GDP corresponds to an increase of 1 kilogram of waste per person per year. On the other hand, construction of landfills and waste disposal sites are becoming increasingly difficult due to objections from neighboring communities.
Next, we must give thought to the essential targets and indicators that would be needed to incorporate this issue as a goal. Incidentally, the ISO is currently considering international certification standards related to urban development, and Japan has been an active participant in the discussions. This includes measures for clearly defining the functions required of urban infrastructure for building a Smart City and standardizing the evaluation method. Incorporating the results of these considerations into new post-2015 goals is expected to contribute to the creation of a market aimed at mobilizing private resources.
As one of the most urbanized countries in the world, Japan holds significant credentials as well as potential for contributing to the important global issue of urban development, which will confront many countries including developing countries in the years to come. I hope the reader agrees.
Kunio Okamura is Senior Special Advisor at the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The opinion expressed in this column is the writer’s own and does not represent that of JICA.
No doubt many of you have heard of the "Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)." They represent a common framework created by integrating the existing development goals of the international community into goals for the 21st century, which were laid out in the Millennium Declaration adopted at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000.
The Millennium Declaration established eight goals to be attained by 2015 along with concrete benchmarks, and its adoption was hailed as a remarkable accomplishment at the time. It has definitely contributed to stimulating interest in issues faced by developing countries, and particularly to raising awareness on the benefits provided by development to each individual and on human development, and to widely sharing the importance of this aspect. Ahead of 2015, the target year for accomplishing the goals, a last-minute effort is underway towards attaining the goals for a specific development theme or region where disparities have emerged in terms of progress.
Concurrently, discussions have begun on new goals to be pursued beyond 2015. Conferences are being held on a frequent basis, led by various countries and institutions including Japan. In July 2012, the U.N. also set up a high-level panel, which will submit its proposals for post-2015 development goals to the Secretary-General. Numerous opinions are being presented on maintaining the direction taken thus far, introducing new goals, targets and indicators, making them simple and measurable, etc. The Japanese government has been emphasizing the importance of Human Security as a guiding principle, mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in view of the Great East Japan Earthquake and emerging vulnerability of Asian countries to natural disasters, reinforced efforts for health based on existing goals.
I have no objections to giving priority to efforts on current challenges in setting the new goals. I nevertheless feel we should also introduce new development goals that will become significant issues in the next ten to fifteen years. By incorporating them into the goals, they will become universal challenges to be shared by the international community into the future. They will in turn serve as guidelines in a united effort by every country in the world for mobilizing resources that are available not only in the government sector but also in the private sector. What then should we choose as the new goal, out of the diverse challenges that exist?
I would like to propose sustainable urban development. According to U.N. statistics, Japan's urban population is outstandingly high among the major economies at 91.3% as of 2011. Meanwhile, urban populations in developing countries are expected to double from approximately 1.69 billion in 1995 to approximately 3.23 billion by 2020. In general, urbanization is seen in a promising light as the driving force of economic growth. However, in most cases response is found lagging in issues that accompany population concentration, including environmental issues such as waste and air pollution, or disasters. It is difficult to keep up with the enormous investment in infrastructure required by urbanization. Let me provide some concrete figures to illustrate the severity of the problem.
Over 80% of greenhouse gases are of urban origin, and over 80% of the costs for adapting to climate change are allocated to urban regions. Today, 67% of the demand for primary energy originates in urban regions, and this is expected to rise to 73% by 2030. According to OECD forecasts, urban air pollution will continue to deteriorate and become the No.1 cause of environment-related deaths by 2050, and deaths caused by exposure to particulate matter (PM) among the younger generation are expected to double to 3.6 million.
In Asia, the quality of water in urban rivers and groundwater has declined in many countries, 820 million people live in urban slums and 140 million city dwellers have no access to a clean water supply. There is a close correlation between economic growth and urban waste; in countries that generate average volumes of waste, an increase of $200 in GDP corresponds to an increase of 1 kilogram of waste per person per year. On the other hand, construction of landfills and waste disposal sites are becoming increasingly difficult due to objections from neighboring communities.
Next, we must give thought to the essential targets and indicators that would be needed to incorporate this issue as a goal. Incidentally, the ISO is currently considering international certification standards related to urban development, and Japan has been an active participant in the discussions. This includes measures for clearly defining the functions required of urban infrastructure for building a Smart City and standardizing the evaluation method. Incorporating the results of these considerations into new post-2015 goals is expected to contribute to the creation of a market aimed at mobilizing private resources.
As one of the most urbanized countries in the world, Japan holds significant credentials as well as potential for contributing to the important global issue of urban development, which will confront many countries including developing countries in the years to come. I hope the reader agrees.
Kunio Okamura is Senior Special Advisor at the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The opinion expressed in this column is the writer’s own and does not represent that of JICA.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
ポスト2015への一つの提言
岡村 邦夫 / 国際協力機構 上級審議役
2013年 1月 16日
折しも衆議院選挙での自民党の大勝を機に、マスコミでは安倍政権の政策について様々な提言がなされているが、経済対策や原発問題に加え、外交政策に係るものも多く見受けられる。近隣地域での緊張状況を踏まえてのものが大半であるが、今日は敢えてグローバルな視点から、国際的な公共益に関する日本の貢献について、一つ提言してみたい。
ミレニアム開発目標（MDGs）という言葉を耳にしたことがある方も多いと思う。2000年9月国連ミレニアム・サミットで、21世紀の国際社会の目標となるミレニアム宣言を採択、従前の開発目標を統合し共通の枠組みとしたものである。2015年までに達成すべき8つの目標を具体的な指標も盛り込み定めたもので、その採択は当時非常に画期的なものとして捉えられたことを思い出す。途上国の開発問題への関心、中でも開発からの個々人の裨益、人間開発に対する関心を高め、その重要性を広く共有することに貢献したことは間違いない。2015年の達成期限を前に、進展に項目や地域により差異が出ている目標の達成に向けた取組の最後の促進が求められている。
あわせて、2015年以降の新たな目標についての議論も始まっている。日本を初め多くの国・機関のリードによる会合も頻繁で、国連も2012年7月にポスト2015年開発目標のハイレベル・パネルを立ち上げ、事務総長への提案を取りまとめるとしている。これまでのラインの維持か、新たな指標の導入か、シンプルで計測可能なものとすべき等々、多くの意見があるが、日本政府も、例えば、人間の安全保障の指導理念化、東日本大震災を背景に防災、現行目標で力を入れる保健といった点が重要と主張してきている。
新たな目標でも、現状の課題への取組が中心となることに異論はないが、今後の10～15年で重要となっていく新たな開発課題もぜひ盛り込みたい。目標に組み込むことで、将来にわたる国際社会共有の普遍的な課題となり、それにより世界各国が一致して、官のみならず民間の資源動員を進める指針となっていく。では、様々な課題から何を選ぶべきか？
私は、持続可能な都市開発を挙げたい。
国連統計によれば、日本の都市部人口は2011年で91.3％と主要経済国の中でも際立って高い。一方、開発途上国の都市部人口は、1995年の約16.9億人から2020年には約32.3億人と倍増する見込みである。一般に、都市化は経済成長の原動力として期待されるが、人口集中に伴う廃棄物や大気汚染等の環境問題および災害等への対応が、ほとんどの場合追い付いていかない。都市化に伴う莫大なインフラ投資が間に合わないのである。
いくつか具体的な数字で問題の深刻さを示してみたい。
温室効果ガスの80％以上が都市起源で、気候変動の適応策コストの80％以上が都市向け。現在一次エネルギー需要の67％は都市起源で、2030年には73％に上昇の見込み。OECDの予測では、都市の大気汚染は悪化の一途をたどり、2050年までに環境起因の死因の第1位となり、粒子状物質（PM）への曝露に起因する若年層の死亡は2倍の360万人に達する見込み。アジアでは多くの国で都市部の水質（河川、地下水）が悪化、8.2億人が都市部スラムの生活者で、1.4億人の都市部生活者が清潔な水へアクセスできていない。経済成長と都市ゴミ量には密接な関係が認められ、平均的なゴミ排出量の国々で、GDP200ドルの上昇に伴い一人当たりの年間ゴミ排出量は1キロずつ増加。一方、埋立て場や処理場の建設は、対象地域住民の反対の強まりでますます困難になっていく。
では次に、目標として組み込むために不可欠な指標はどうしたらよいか。
都市関連の国際認証基準については、折しもISOにおいて、日本も積極的に参加する形で検討が行われている。その対象には、スマートシティー構築のために都市インフラに求められる機能を明示し、評価方法を共通化しようとする取組も含まれている。この成果を2015年以降の新たな目標設定に反映することで、民間資源の動員に向けた市場の創造に寄与することも期待される。
日本は都市化が最も進んだ国の一つとして、今後開発途上国を初めとして多くの国が直面していく都市開発という世界共通の重要な問題において、貢献の余地と可能性が大きいと思うがいかがであろうか。
（筆者は国際協力機構 上級審議役。本稿の意見は、筆者個人のものであり、国際協力機構の立場を代表するものではありません。）
ミレニアム開発目標（MDGs）という言葉を耳にしたことがある方も多いと思う。2000年9月国連ミレニアム・サミットで、21世紀の国際社会の目標となるミレニアム宣言を採択、従前の開発目標を統合し共通の枠組みとしたものである。2015年までに達成すべき8つの目標を具体的な指標も盛り込み定めたもので、その採択は当時非常に画期的なものとして捉えられたことを思い出す。途上国の開発問題への関心、中でも開発からの個々人の裨益、人間開発に対する関心を高め、その重要性を広く共有することに貢献したことは間違いない。2015年の達成期限を前に、進展に項目や地域により差異が出ている目標の達成に向けた取組の最後の促進が求められている。
あわせて、2015年以降の新たな目標についての議論も始まっている。日本を初め多くの国・機関のリードによる会合も頻繁で、国連も2012年7月にポスト2015年開発目標のハイレベル・パネルを立ち上げ、事務総長への提案を取りまとめるとしている。これまでのラインの維持か、新たな指標の導入か、シンプルで計測可能なものとすべき等々、多くの意見があるが、日本政府も、例えば、人間の安全保障の指導理念化、東日本大震災を背景に防災、現行目標で力を入れる保健といった点が重要と主張してきている。
新たな目標でも、現状の課題への取組が中心となることに異論はないが、今後の10～15年で重要となっていく新たな開発課題もぜひ盛り込みたい。目標に組み込むことで、将来にわたる国際社会共有の普遍的な課題となり、それにより世界各国が一致して、官のみならず民間の資源動員を進める指針となっていく。では、様々な課題から何を選ぶべきか？
私は、持続可能な都市開発を挙げたい。
国連統計によれば、日本の都市部人口は2011年で91.3％と主要経済国の中でも際立って高い。一方、開発途上国の都市部人口は、1995年の約16.9億人から2020年には約32.3億人と倍増する見込みである。一般に、都市化は経済成長の原動力として期待されるが、人口集中に伴う廃棄物や大気汚染等の環境問題および災害等への対応が、ほとんどの場合追い付いていかない。都市化に伴う莫大なインフラ投資が間に合わないのである。
いくつか具体的な数字で問題の深刻さを示してみたい。
温室効果ガスの80％以上が都市起源で、気候変動の適応策コストの80％以上が都市向け。現在一次エネルギー需要の67％は都市起源で、2030年には73％に上昇の見込み。OECDの予測では、都市の大気汚染は悪化の一途をたどり、2050年までに環境起因の死因の第1位となり、粒子状物質（PM）への曝露に起因する若年層の死亡は2倍の360万人に達する見込み。アジアでは多くの国で都市部の水質（河川、地下水）が悪化、8.2億人が都市部スラムの生活者で、1.4億人の都市部生活者が清潔な水へアクセスできていない。経済成長と都市ゴミ量には密接な関係が認められ、平均的なゴミ排出量の国々で、GDP200ドルの上昇に伴い一人当たりの年間ゴミ排出量は1キロずつ増加。一方、埋立て場や処理場の建設は、対象地域住民の反対の強まりでますます困難になっていく。
では次に、目標として組み込むために不可欠な指標はどうしたらよいか。
都市関連の国際認証基準については、折しもISOにおいて、日本も積極的に参加する形で検討が行われている。その対象には、スマートシティー構築のために都市インフラに求められる機能を明示し、評価方法を共通化しようとする取組も含まれている。この成果を2015年以降の新たな目標設定に反映することで、民間資源の動員に向けた市場の創造に寄与することも期待される。
日本は都市化が最も進んだ国の一つとして、今後開発途上国を初めとして多くの国が直面していく都市開発という世界共通の重要な問題において、貢献の余地と可能性が大きいと思うがいかがであろうか。
（筆者は国際協力機構 上級審議役。本稿の意見は、筆者個人のものであり、国際協力機構の立場を代表するものではありません。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟