Prime Minister Abe Being Tested for His Conservative Mettle
ONUMA Yasuaki / Distinguished Professor at Meiji University
February 15, 2013
The year 2013 began under a heavy cloud of anxiety punctured by a faint ray of hope.
The state of the economy is by far the greatest cause of anxiety. Will Japan be able to break away from two decades of economic stagnation?
So far, the markets have responded favorably to the new administration of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and its aggressive fiscal stance. Yet, its reactionary public spending policy aimed at "strengthening the national infrastructure" by pumping money into civil engineering and construction works may fail to deliver on its promise of economic recovery. Instead, it may bring about the worst possible outcome of further expanding the budget deficit. Even if it does go ahead with a proactive fiscal policy, shouldn't the government allocate public funds to areas such as nursing and childcare? They are faced with a serious shortage of labor and require a massive effort in developing human resources and expanding employment opportunities. The new administration should heed the voice of its people and address this most pressing need.
Japan's relationship with China and South Kore' is another factor that may have a critical impact on its economic recovery. Among Japan's trading partners, China accounts for 20% of its exports, trailed by the United States with 15% and by South Korea with 8%. And in terms of imports, China is tops with 22% of the total, which is more than double the figure for the United States with 9%, while South Korea is ranked sixth with 5%. In terms of the total number of foreign tourists staying overnight, which is an important indicator for Japan as a tourism destination, China and South Korea come in first and second. In other words, Japan, which boasts the world’s third-largest GDP in the world, is in fact economically integrated with China and South Korea, which are ranked second and 15th, respectively. The three countries must therefore restrain their emotional differences and maintain a Win-Win relationship. Otherwise, they would co-suffer and co-decline.
Yet, Japan currently finds itself in a tight spot with China over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, and with South Korea over Takeshima (Dokdo) Island and the "comfort women" issue. This has led to a dramatic fall in Japanese auto sales in China and a serious risk of mutual demerit. And in the midst of this situation Japan's new administration was born, led by Prime Minister Abe. This is a man who had long advocated a review of [for revising?] the "Murayama Statement" issued in 1995 by then-Prime Minister Murayama upon the 50th anniversary of World War II as Japan's public admission of guilt for its wartime deeds and colonial rule – and upheld by subsequent Liberal Democratic Party governments, and the "Kohno Statement" issued in 1993 by then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Kohno to express Japan's apology on the "comfort women" issue. Objecting to the historical perception expressed in these statements is, in my view tantamount to objecting to a perception shared not only by China and South Korea, but also by other Asian countries, the United States and Europe. In effect, it would mean disagreeing with the common perception of the international community. Yet, a government headed by a politician known for having voiced such dissent had now seized power in Japan. It was only natural that the leaders and people in countries around the world, along with the Japanese people, felt a rush of anxiety.
Fortunately, the situation is not without hope. In his previous administration, Prime Minister Abe paid a visit to China immediately after forming his Cabinet to restore a relationship that had deteriorated significantly following his predecessor Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. Similarly, after forming his latest Cabinet, Prime Minister Abe canceled plans to raise the status of "Takeshima Day" on February 22, a Shimane Prefecture's ceremonial day, to a government-sponsored ceremony, even though it had been part of his campaign pledge. He has also refrained from making specific comments on permanently stationing public servants on the Senkaku Islands and visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which are sensitive issues for China. Furthermore, Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide has clearly stated that the Abe government will uphold the Murayama Statement.
It seems that Prime Minister Abe and his main ministers have learned from the mistakes of the previous Abe administration. They seem to have been paying due consideration to the importance of Japan's economic relationship with China and South Korea, as well as to the U.S. view on the historical perception issue in their effort to exercise caution in handling issues concerning "historical perception" and territorial rights.
Fundamentally, the conservatism advocated by Prime Minister Abe should not mean a simple call to maintain "tradition” or “national pride" It should be characterized by a deep insight into history that progressives and liberals together cannot hope to match, cool-headedly comparing one's own capabilities with those of a rival, sustaining oneself on resources available within one's means, and handing over to the next generation a system that has on the whole been beneficial to the people while constantly making partial revisions to the system.
Such is the stance truly worthy of the term "conservatism." All great conservative politicians in history, including Sir Winston Churchill, possessed such wisdom and historical insight. Prime Minister Abe, precisely because he is a conservative, has the potential of reigning in the "conservative" resistance in Japan to bring about a bold compromise and reconciliation with China and South Korea.
Will Prime Minister Abe end up as a deluded "conservative" who lends vociferous support to reactionary ideology? Or will he truly learn from his previous mistakes to fulfill his role of prime minister as a genuine conservative politician and earn a place in history? This is both a question and a message that is being presented before the Abe administration not only by Japanese but people of the entire world.
Yasuaki Onuma is Distinguished Professor at Meiji University specializing in international law. The article first appeared in the Yamagata Shimbun newspaper dated 10th January, 2013.
The state of the economy is by far the greatest cause of anxiety. Will Japan be able to break away from two decades of economic stagnation?
So far, the markets have responded favorably to the new administration of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and its aggressive fiscal stance. Yet, its reactionary public spending policy aimed at "strengthening the national infrastructure" by pumping money into civil engineering and construction works may fail to deliver on its promise of economic recovery. Instead, it may bring about the worst possible outcome of further expanding the budget deficit. Even if it does go ahead with a proactive fiscal policy, shouldn't the government allocate public funds to areas such as nursing and childcare? They are faced with a serious shortage of labor and require a massive effort in developing human resources and expanding employment opportunities. The new administration should heed the voice of its people and address this most pressing need.
Japan's relationship with China and South Kore' is another factor that may have a critical impact on its economic recovery. Among Japan's trading partners, China accounts for 20% of its exports, trailed by the United States with 15% and by South Korea with 8%. And in terms of imports, China is tops with 22% of the total, which is more than double the figure for the United States with 9%, while South Korea is ranked sixth with 5%. In terms of the total number of foreign tourists staying overnight, which is an important indicator for Japan as a tourism destination, China and South Korea come in first and second. In other words, Japan, which boasts the world’s third-largest GDP in the world, is in fact economically integrated with China and South Korea, which are ranked second and 15th, respectively. The three countries must therefore restrain their emotional differences and maintain a Win-Win relationship. Otherwise, they would co-suffer and co-decline.
Yet, Japan currently finds itself in a tight spot with China over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, and with South Korea over Takeshima (Dokdo) Island and the "comfort women" issue. This has led to a dramatic fall in Japanese auto sales in China and a serious risk of mutual demerit. And in the midst of this situation Japan's new administration was born, led by Prime Minister Abe. This is a man who had long advocated a review of [for revising?] the "Murayama Statement" issued in 1995 by then-Prime Minister Murayama upon the 50th anniversary of World War II as Japan's public admission of guilt for its wartime deeds and colonial rule – and upheld by subsequent Liberal Democratic Party governments, and the "Kohno Statement" issued in 1993 by then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Kohno to express Japan's apology on the "comfort women" issue. Objecting to the historical perception expressed in these statements is, in my view tantamount to objecting to a perception shared not only by China and South Korea, but also by other Asian countries, the United States and Europe. In effect, it would mean disagreeing with the common perception of the international community. Yet, a government headed by a politician known for having voiced such dissent had now seized power in Japan. It was only natural that the leaders and people in countries around the world, along with the Japanese people, felt a rush of anxiety.
Fortunately, the situation is not without hope. In his previous administration, Prime Minister Abe paid a visit to China immediately after forming his Cabinet to restore a relationship that had deteriorated significantly following his predecessor Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. Similarly, after forming his latest Cabinet, Prime Minister Abe canceled plans to raise the status of "Takeshima Day" on February 22, a Shimane Prefecture's ceremonial day, to a government-sponsored ceremony, even though it had been part of his campaign pledge. He has also refrained from making specific comments on permanently stationing public servants on the Senkaku Islands and visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which are sensitive issues for China. Furthermore, Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide has clearly stated that the Abe government will uphold the Murayama Statement.
It seems that Prime Minister Abe and his main ministers have learned from the mistakes of the previous Abe administration. They seem to have been paying due consideration to the importance of Japan's economic relationship with China and South Korea, as well as to the U.S. view on the historical perception issue in their effort to exercise caution in handling issues concerning "historical perception" and territorial rights.
Fundamentally, the conservatism advocated by Prime Minister Abe should not mean a simple call to maintain "tradition” or “national pride" It should be characterized by a deep insight into history that progressives and liberals together cannot hope to match, cool-headedly comparing one's own capabilities with those of a rival, sustaining oneself on resources available within one's means, and handing over to the next generation a system that has on the whole been beneficial to the people while constantly making partial revisions to the system.
Such is the stance truly worthy of the term "conservatism." All great conservative politicians in history, including Sir Winston Churchill, possessed such wisdom and historical insight. Prime Minister Abe, precisely because he is a conservative, has the potential of reigning in the "conservative" resistance in Japan to bring about a bold compromise and reconciliation with China and South Korea.
Will Prime Minister Abe end up as a deluded "conservative" who lends vociferous support to reactionary ideology? Or will he truly learn from his previous mistakes to fulfill his role of prime minister as a genuine conservative politician and earn a place in history? This is both a question and a message that is being presented before the Abe administration not only by Japanese but people of the entire world.
Yasuaki Onuma is Distinguished Professor at Meiji University specializing in international law. The article first appeared in the Yamagata Shimbun newspaper dated 10th January, 2013.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
問われる安倍首相の保守
大沼保昭 / 明治大学特任教授
2013年 2月 15日
２０１３年は大きな不安と、そしてか細い希望をもって年が明けた。
不安の最たるものは経済である。20年に及ぶ経済の低迷から日本は脱却できるのか。
積極財政を掲げる安倍新政権に市場はひとまず好意的な反応を示している。だが、「国土強靭化」なる土建・建設中心の復古的な公共投資政策が期待ほどの景気回復をもたらさず、財政赤字が増えるだけという最悪の結果を生むのではないか。同じ積極財政を行うにしても、介護・保育など、雇用環境が厳しく大量の人材育成と雇用の増加を必要とする分野にこそ公共資本を投下すべきでないか。国民のこの切実な声に新政権は耳を傾けてほしい。
また経済の回復にも決定的な影響を及ぼしかねないのが中韓との関係である。日本の貿易相手国中、輸出で中国は20％を占め、米国の15％を押さえて１位、韓国は８％で３位、輸入で中国は22％で米国の９％の２倍以上の１位、韓国は５％で６位である。観光立国に重要な意味を持つ外国人観光客の延べ宿泊者数でも、中韓は１，２位を占める。つまり世界のＧＤＰ３位の日本は、同２位の中国、同15位の韓国と経済的にほぼ一体化しており、３国は感情的あつれきを抑えてウィンウィン（共栄）の関係を維持しなければ共損・巨滅せざるを得ないのである。
ところが日本は現在中国と尖閣諸島、韓国と竹島・「慰安婦」問題をめぐって厳しい関係にあり、中国での日本車の売れ行きが激減するなど、深刻な「共損」のおそれが生じている。その最中に、戦後50周年に第二次大戦と植民地支配の反省を公にし、その後の自民党政権も受け継いできた村山談話と、「慰安婦」問題にかかわる河野談話の見直しを唱えてきた安倍氏を総理とする政権が発足したのである。両談話に示された歴史認識は、中韓のみならず他のアジア諸国、米国や欧州でも共通の、つまり国際社会全体の共通認識に異を唱えることを意味する。こうした歴史認識を公言してきた安倍氏を総理とする内閣に、日本だけでなく世界各国の指導者、国民が不安を抱いたのは当然だろう。
しかし希望もある。安倍総理は前回の政権では組閣後直ちに中国を訪問し、小泉総理の靖国参拝で極度に悪化していた中国との関係を修復した。今回の組閣後も、選挙中主張していた２月22日の「竹島の日」の政府主催式典への格上げは取りやめた。中国が神経を尖らせている尖閣諸島への公務員の常駐と靖国参拝についても明言は避けている。菅官房長官は安倍内閣が村山談話を引き継ぐことを明言した。
安倍総理と主要閣僚は前回の安倍内閣の失敗を反省し、先に述べた中韓との経済関係の重要性や歴史認識をめぐる米国の視線にも配慮して、「歴史認識」や領土にかかわる問題については慎重な対応をしようと努めているように見える。
そもそも安倍総理が主張する保守とは、本来単に「伝統」の維持や「国家・国民の誇り」を声高に叫ぶものではない。進歩派やリベラルが束になっても敵わない深い歴史への洞察をもち、自らの力量とライバルの力量を冷徹に比較し、限られた自らの力量の限度で獲得できるもので自足し、常に体制の部分的修正をはかりつつ全体として国民に利益を与えてきた体制を次世代に引き継いでいく。
これこそが保守の名に値するものであり、歴史上偉大な保守政治家はチャーチルをはじめすべてのこうした知恵と歴史への洞察を備えていた。安倍総理には、保守なればこそ国内の「保守」の抵抗を抑えて思い切った中韓との妥協と関係修復を実現できる可能性もあるのである。
安倍総理が声高に復古的イデオロギーを語る勘違い「保守」で終わるのか、前回の失敗から深く学んで本来の意味の保守政治家として総理の職を全うし、歴史に名を残すことができるのか。これは、日本だけでなく世界からの安倍政権への問いかけであり、メッセージである。
（筆者は明治大学特任教授（国際法）。本稿は2013年1月１０付山形新聞に掲載された。）
不安の最たるものは経済である。20年に及ぶ経済の低迷から日本は脱却できるのか。
積極財政を掲げる安倍新政権に市場はひとまず好意的な反応を示している。だが、「国土強靭化」なる土建・建設中心の復古的な公共投資政策が期待ほどの景気回復をもたらさず、財政赤字が増えるだけという最悪の結果を生むのではないか。同じ積極財政を行うにしても、介護・保育など、雇用環境が厳しく大量の人材育成と雇用の増加を必要とする分野にこそ公共資本を投下すべきでないか。国民のこの切実な声に新政権は耳を傾けてほしい。
また経済の回復にも決定的な影響を及ぼしかねないのが中韓との関係である。日本の貿易相手国中、輸出で中国は20％を占め、米国の15％を押さえて１位、韓国は８％で３位、輸入で中国は22％で米国の９％の２倍以上の１位、韓国は５％で６位である。観光立国に重要な意味を持つ外国人観光客の延べ宿泊者数でも、中韓は１，２位を占める。つまり世界のＧＤＰ３位の日本は、同２位の中国、同15位の韓国と経済的にほぼ一体化しており、３国は感情的あつれきを抑えてウィンウィン（共栄）の関係を維持しなければ共損・巨滅せざるを得ないのである。
ところが日本は現在中国と尖閣諸島、韓国と竹島・「慰安婦」問題をめぐって厳しい関係にあり、中国での日本車の売れ行きが激減するなど、深刻な「共損」のおそれが生じている。その最中に、戦後50周年に第二次大戦と植民地支配の反省を公にし、その後の自民党政権も受け継いできた村山談話と、「慰安婦」問題にかかわる河野談話の見直しを唱えてきた安倍氏を総理とする政権が発足したのである。両談話に示された歴史認識は、中韓のみならず他のアジア諸国、米国や欧州でも共通の、つまり国際社会全体の共通認識に異を唱えることを意味する。こうした歴史認識を公言してきた安倍氏を総理とする内閣に、日本だけでなく世界各国の指導者、国民が不安を抱いたのは当然だろう。
しかし希望もある。安倍総理は前回の政権では組閣後直ちに中国を訪問し、小泉総理の靖国参拝で極度に悪化していた中国との関係を修復した。今回の組閣後も、選挙中主張していた２月22日の「竹島の日」の政府主催式典への格上げは取りやめた。中国が神経を尖らせている尖閣諸島への公務員の常駐と靖国参拝についても明言は避けている。菅官房長官は安倍内閣が村山談話を引き継ぐことを明言した。
安倍総理と主要閣僚は前回の安倍内閣の失敗を反省し、先に述べた中韓との経済関係の重要性や歴史認識をめぐる米国の視線にも配慮して、「歴史認識」や領土にかかわる問題については慎重な対応をしようと努めているように見える。
そもそも安倍総理が主張する保守とは、本来単に「伝統」の維持や「国家・国民の誇り」を声高に叫ぶものではない。進歩派やリベラルが束になっても敵わない深い歴史への洞察をもち、自らの力量とライバルの力量を冷徹に比較し、限られた自らの力量の限度で獲得できるもので自足し、常に体制の部分的修正をはかりつつ全体として国民に利益を与えてきた体制を次世代に引き継いでいく。
これこそが保守の名に値するものであり、歴史上偉大な保守政治家はチャーチルをはじめすべてのこうした知恵と歴史への洞察を備えていた。安倍総理には、保守なればこそ国内の「保守」の抵抗を抑えて思い切った中韓との妥協と関係修復を実現できる可能性もあるのである。
安倍総理が声高に復古的イデオロギーを語る勘違い「保守」で終わるのか、前回の失敗から深く学んで本来の意味の保守政治家として総理の職を全うし、歴史に名を残すことができるのか。これは、日本だけでなく世界からの安倍政権への問いかけであり、メッセージである。
（筆者は明治大学特任教授（国際法）。本稿は2013年1月１０付山形新聞に掲載された。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟