The birth of Trump’s presidency drives the countries of the world to leave their nests
ONO Goro / Emeritus Professor, Saitama University
December 1, 2016
According to many media reports, the world has been apparently dumbfounded by the quite unexpected election of Donald Trump to the U.S. Presidency. But I feel something is wrong with such a reaction. Whatever the outcome of the election, we should have known that great many Americans were feeling the same way as Donald Trump.
In the post-WWII world, the Unites States the Superpower has acted as the father figure in a family, and the rest of the countries as children. Seen in a favorable light, this father has taken very good care of his family and has been eager to educate his children. But he has also tended to force his own ideas on his children, at times raising his fist to those who resist him. As for his many children, there is quite a variety in both physical size and temperament. Some are complacent under the protective wing of their father. Some quarrel with their siblings. Some dare to oppose their oppressive father. But, all in all, family discipline has been kept because of the father’s strength, which far surpasses that of his children not just physically but also in terms of money and leadership.
However, as the father’s strength shows signs of waning, some of his innumerable children have grown big and strong, beyond the father’s capacity to control. In other words, the father can no longer shoulder alone the responsibilities of managing the whole family. Such being the case, the father begins to worry more about his own future than about his family. As a result, his children are now left to fend for themselves. This is the case not just with those who have in most instances depended on their father but also with those who have at times resisted their father, secure in the belief that if push comes to shove, they can rely on their father’s strength. For some, “leaving the nest” means the start of a journey to a new paradise. For some others, it means being thrown out into the wilderness where danger lurks.
As the policeman of the world, the Unites States has led Pax Americana with the gospel of democracy and capitalism, accepting its role as the sole father figure for the countries of the world. It is historically inevitable that the United States would at some point lose its interest in the world as a whole and in specific countries and regions, and shift its priority back home to its own affairs. This would have happened even without the emergence of President Trump.
What will happen when the United States, having spread this wave of democracy and capitalism, withdraws within itself? Each of the countries of the world will no doubt try to choose the system best suited to its culture, history and stage of development. That said, amidst the massive tide of globalization that nobody can stop, it is impossible for any country to live in perfect isolation. There will have to be exchanges among peoples and countries, and a minimum necessary interface mechanism to enable such exchanges. However, there are such a vast number of issues relating to the multiple, diverse values of innumerable countries that it would be virtually impossible for all concerned to discuss them and reach decisions. Thus arises the role to be played by some major countries after the United States withdraws from the scene.
It is also true that there are a number of countries that cannot immediately sustain or govern themselves. They would have no choice but to turn to the big powers or international organizations for support and protection. At the same time, some regional powers that have been freed from the shackles of the United States would try more vigorously to corral those smaller countries. It is unlikely, however, that they would succeed in oppressively subjugating their opposition forces and last as regional hegemons, as some have feared. This is because in this day and age where information, equipment and weapons are easily obtainable through the internet, even to the extent of arousing the fear of nuclear terrorism, it is no longer possible to contain the rebels by force indefinitely.
In sum, there seems to be no other course for the world but to keep drifting amid confusion for some time until a new equilibrium sets in. I do pray that the leaders and pundits in various countries will cease to be preoccupied with their short-term interests and work together, from the perspective of the whole of mankind, to build a new equilibrium before catastrophe strikes. If I venture a guess as to what that new equilibrium might be, it could be a world in which countries, big, small, strong or weak, stand on their own feet and sustain themselves, respect the cultures, values and the ways of life of others, and complement one another in complex networks of independent and self-governing bodies ranging from families and businesses to local governments and sovereign states.
The writer is Emeritus Professor of Saitama University.
In the post-WWII world, the Unites States the Superpower has acted as the father figure in a family, and the rest of the countries as children. Seen in a favorable light, this father has taken very good care of his family and has been eager to educate his children. But he has also tended to force his own ideas on his children, at times raising his fist to those who resist him. As for his many children, there is quite a variety in both physical size and temperament. Some are complacent under the protective wing of their father. Some quarrel with their siblings. Some dare to oppose their oppressive father. But, all in all, family discipline has been kept because of the father’s strength, which far surpasses that of his children not just physically but also in terms of money and leadership.
However, as the father’s strength shows signs of waning, some of his innumerable children have grown big and strong, beyond the father’s capacity to control. In other words, the father can no longer shoulder alone the responsibilities of managing the whole family. Such being the case, the father begins to worry more about his own future than about his family. As a result, his children are now left to fend for themselves. This is the case not just with those who have in most instances depended on their father but also with those who have at times resisted their father, secure in the belief that if push comes to shove, they can rely on their father’s strength. For some, “leaving the nest” means the start of a journey to a new paradise. For some others, it means being thrown out into the wilderness where danger lurks.
As the policeman of the world, the Unites States has led Pax Americana with the gospel of democracy and capitalism, accepting its role as the sole father figure for the countries of the world. It is historically inevitable that the United States would at some point lose its interest in the world as a whole and in specific countries and regions, and shift its priority back home to its own affairs. This would have happened even without the emergence of President Trump.
What will happen when the United States, having spread this wave of democracy and capitalism, withdraws within itself? Each of the countries of the world will no doubt try to choose the system best suited to its culture, history and stage of development. That said, amidst the massive tide of globalization that nobody can stop, it is impossible for any country to live in perfect isolation. There will have to be exchanges among peoples and countries, and a minimum necessary interface mechanism to enable such exchanges. However, there are such a vast number of issues relating to the multiple, diverse values of innumerable countries that it would be virtually impossible for all concerned to discuss them and reach decisions. Thus arises the role to be played by some major countries after the United States withdraws from the scene.
It is also true that there are a number of countries that cannot immediately sustain or govern themselves. They would have no choice but to turn to the big powers or international organizations for support and protection. At the same time, some regional powers that have been freed from the shackles of the United States would try more vigorously to corral those smaller countries. It is unlikely, however, that they would succeed in oppressively subjugating their opposition forces and last as regional hegemons, as some have feared. This is because in this day and age where information, equipment and weapons are easily obtainable through the internet, even to the extent of arousing the fear of nuclear terrorism, it is no longer possible to contain the rebels by force indefinitely.
In sum, there seems to be no other course for the world but to keep drifting amid confusion for some time until a new equilibrium sets in. I do pray that the leaders and pundits in various countries will cease to be preoccupied with their short-term interests and work together, from the perspective of the whole of mankind, to build a new equilibrium before catastrophe strikes. If I venture a guess as to what that new equilibrium might be, it could be a world in which countries, big, small, strong or weak, stand on their own feet and sustain themselves, respect the cultures, values and the ways of life of others, and complement one another in complex networks of independent and self-governing bodies ranging from families and businesses to local governments and sovereign states.
The writer is Emeritus Professor of Saitama University.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
トランプ大統領誕生は世界に巣立ちを求めた
小野五郎 / 埼玉大学名誉教授
2016年 12月 1日
トランプ氏の大統領就任について、報道の多くは「世界中が想定外の事態に愕然としている」と伝えている。しかし、そうした受け止め方自体おかしいのではないか。「本選の結果はどうあろうとも、相当数のアメリカ人が彼と同じ思いである」ことは分かっていたことなのだ。
戦後世界では、これまで超大国米国がいわば家庭内における父親、その他の国々が子どもたちのような関係にあった。この父親は、よく言えば非常に面倒見がよく教育熱心だったが、自身の考えを子どもたちに強制しがちで、時に逆らう者には拳固を振り上げることもあった。一方、大勢の子どもたちは、大きさも性格もてんでんばらばらで、父親の庇護の下にぬくぬくとし満足する者から、兄弟喧嘩をする者、さらには強権的な父親に反攻する者もいた。しかし、それでも、家庭内の秩序は、父親の強さ、それも単なる腕力だけではなく、経済力や指導力でもどの子どもをもはるかに上回っていたがゆえに、それなりに治まっていた。
しかし、そんな父親にも、徐々に衰えが見え始める一方で、無数にいる子どもたちの中からは、もはや父親の力をもってしても抑えきれないくらい大きく力強い者も育ってきた。つまり、父親一人で家庭内のすべてを背負って立つのは不可能となったのだ。となると、父親も、子どもたちや家庭のことよりも、自身の今後のことを心配するようになる。結果として、これまでは何かと父親に頼ってきた子どもたちばかりでなく、いざという時の父親の力を信じたからこそ逆らって見せた子どもたちも、これからは父親に依存することなく自分自身の手で生きていかねばならなくなった。「巣立ち」は、ある者にとっては自由な新天地への旅立ちを意味するが、ある者にとっては危険な荒野への放逐を意味することになる。
世界の警察として、また民主主義・資本主義の伝道師としてパックスアメリカーナを率い、世界の国々の父親役を一手に引き受けてきた米国が、世界全体や個々の国々・地域への関心を薄れさせ、自国内のことへと重心を移していくのは、たとえ今回トランプ大統領が登場しなかったとしても、いずれ起きるべき史的必然だった。
ここまでの流れを生み出してきた米国が手を引いた後、世界の国々は、それぞれ自らの文化・歴史・発展段階などに合った体制を選択しようとするに違いない。とはいえ、今や何人たりとも止められないグローバリゼーションの大きなうねりの中では、一国だけが完全に孤立して生きていくことはできない。したがって、互いに交流していくために、最低限必要なインターフェイスが用意されなければならない。といって、無数にある国々の多種多様な価値観に関わる問題を、全員の討議によって決することは不可能に近い。そこに、米国が去った後の主要国の役割が生まれる。
一方、直ぐには自立・自律不能な国々も数多く存在し、彼らは大国や国際機関に対して支援・庇護を求めざるをえない。他方、米国の軛から解き放たれた地域大国からは、こうした国々を囲い込もうとする動きがますます強まろう。といって、一部で懸念されるように、それが強圧的に反対勢力を押さえつけ、地域覇権として永続する可能性は低い。なぜなら、ネット等を通じ情報や機材や武器が容易に入手でき、核テロさえ懸念されるようになっている今日、反体制派をいつまでも力づくで封じ込めることなどできないからである。
結局、世界は、新しい定常状態に達するまでの当分の間、混沌の中を漂流し続けるほかはないことになる。各国の指導者・有識者たちが目先のことばかりを追いやらず、人類大の視座に立ち、破局が訪れる前に新しい定常状態を構築すべく協調することを祈りたい。なお、この新しい定常状態を筆者なりに予測すると、大小強弱に関係なく、それなりに自立・自律した個が、他の文化・価値観・生きざまを尊重しつつ、家庭や企業から自治体・国家などまでそれなりに自立・自律した各種組織と錯綜したネットワークの中で互いに補完し合っていく世界になるのではないか。
筆者は埼玉大学名誉教授
戦後世界では、これまで超大国米国がいわば家庭内における父親、その他の国々が子どもたちのような関係にあった。この父親は、よく言えば非常に面倒見がよく教育熱心だったが、自身の考えを子どもたちに強制しがちで、時に逆らう者には拳固を振り上げることもあった。一方、大勢の子どもたちは、大きさも性格もてんでんばらばらで、父親の庇護の下にぬくぬくとし満足する者から、兄弟喧嘩をする者、さらには強権的な父親に反攻する者もいた。しかし、それでも、家庭内の秩序は、父親の強さ、それも単なる腕力だけではなく、経済力や指導力でもどの子どもをもはるかに上回っていたがゆえに、それなりに治まっていた。
しかし、そんな父親にも、徐々に衰えが見え始める一方で、無数にいる子どもたちの中からは、もはや父親の力をもってしても抑えきれないくらい大きく力強い者も育ってきた。つまり、父親一人で家庭内のすべてを背負って立つのは不可能となったのだ。となると、父親も、子どもたちや家庭のことよりも、自身の今後のことを心配するようになる。結果として、これまでは何かと父親に頼ってきた子どもたちばかりでなく、いざという時の父親の力を信じたからこそ逆らって見せた子どもたちも、これからは父親に依存することなく自分自身の手で生きていかねばならなくなった。「巣立ち」は、ある者にとっては自由な新天地への旅立ちを意味するが、ある者にとっては危険な荒野への放逐を意味することになる。
世界の警察として、また民主主義・資本主義の伝道師としてパックスアメリカーナを率い、世界の国々の父親役を一手に引き受けてきた米国が、世界全体や個々の国々・地域への関心を薄れさせ、自国内のことへと重心を移していくのは、たとえ今回トランプ大統領が登場しなかったとしても、いずれ起きるべき史的必然だった。
ここまでの流れを生み出してきた米国が手を引いた後、世界の国々は、それぞれ自らの文化・歴史・発展段階などに合った体制を選択しようとするに違いない。とはいえ、今や何人たりとも止められないグローバリゼーションの大きなうねりの中では、一国だけが完全に孤立して生きていくことはできない。したがって、互いに交流していくために、最低限必要なインターフェイスが用意されなければならない。といって、無数にある国々の多種多様な価値観に関わる問題を、全員の討議によって決することは不可能に近い。そこに、米国が去った後の主要国の役割が生まれる。
一方、直ぐには自立・自律不能な国々も数多く存在し、彼らは大国や国際機関に対して支援・庇護を求めざるをえない。他方、米国の軛から解き放たれた地域大国からは、こうした国々を囲い込もうとする動きがますます強まろう。といって、一部で懸念されるように、それが強圧的に反対勢力を押さえつけ、地域覇権として永続する可能性は低い。なぜなら、ネット等を通じ情報や機材や武器が容易に入手でき、核テロさえ懸念されるようになっている今日、反体制派をいつまでも力づくで封じ込めることなどできないからである。
結局、世界は、新しい定常状態に達するまでの当分の間、混沌の中を漂流し続けるほかはないことになる。各国の指導者・有識者たちが目先のことばかりを追いやらず、人類大の視座に立ち、破局が訪れる前に新しい定常状態を構築すべく協調することを祈りたい。なお、この新しい定常状態を筆者なりに予測すると、大小強弱に関係なく、それなりに自立・自律した個が、他の文化・価値観・生きざまを尊重しつつ、家庭や企業から自治体・国家などまでそれなりに自立・自律した各種組織と錯綜したネットワークの中で互いに補完し合っていく世界になるのではないか。
筆者は埼玉大学名誉教授
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟