Words of Wisdom for Japan as the Global Tide of Nationalism Swallows Up Trump
UENO Kagefumi / Professor (non-tenured), Kyorin University
March 28, 2017
Donald Trump’s victory last fall was described as the “biggest surprise of the century,” and has been explained mainly in terms of domestic US factors such as the blue-collar backlash against globalization. While that may be so, we must not overlook the international factor, i.e, structural changes that are affecting the world as a whole. The global upsurge in nationalism has more or less taken center stage of the international arena, and seen from this perspective, Trump’s electoral victory was a natural outcome of this sweeping global trend.
In retrospect, we could say that it all began in 1991. In the international community, the collapse of the Soviet Union and conclusion of the Cold War in 1991 put an end to an era dominated by ideology, and in turn opened the way to an era of nationalism focused on national interests. Thus the “basic grammar” governing international relations shifted from one characterized by confrontations based on ideology to confrontations driven by nationalism and national interests.
Sometime around 1990, many non-western countries, such as China and Russia, became aware that it was no longer possible to hold their nation together by ideology or ideal. Instead, they began to hold the nation together by drumming up nationalistic sentiments on the political front, while adhering to national interests on the economic front. As a result, nationalism began to flourish everywhere in the international community. Trump’s arrival on the scene indicates that the waves originating from this “1991 Revolution” had finally reached American shores.
Unlike many non-western countries, notably China and Russia, who began to rely increasingly on nationalism to govern their people, western industrialized nations, such as Japan, Western Europe and the United States, with mature societies, could hold their nations together without resorting to nationalism. And in fact, even after 1991 these western countries had kept the broad-minded approach of “post-nationalism,” willingly restraining their sovereignty for the “common good” of the international community.
However, in recent years, political moves that stir up nationalistic sentiment and assertive “our-country-first-ism” have begun to affect industrialized countries as they became swept up by the currents of rampant nationalism of non-western countries, or were confronted by new circumstances such as increased inflow of immigrants. A reversal in the trend, from “post-nationalism” back to “nationalism,” is underway within the industrialized west.
A moderate dose of nationalism does little harm. However, triggered by a plausible target, nationalism has the innate danger of igniting passions that easily give way to radicalism. Take a look around the world, and you will recognize that excessive nationalism causes various “maladies” such as expansionism, xenophobia, isolationism, praise for past glory, bullying of neighboring countries and domestic minorities, and contempt for international norms------in many non-western countries, such as China, Russia, Turkey, India and Egypt. However, they are not a unique phenomenon of non-western countries. Even Western European countries and the United States have now begun to show these symptoms. And, in particular, “Trumpism”, with which we have become quite familiar since last year, is seen to exacerbate such maladies.
Under Trump, the United States has become immersed in the kind of nationalism espoused by countries such as China and Russia, behaving as if it were a “Third World” country. The US has begun to abandon the role of the “defender of universal values” it has played for over seven decades since 1945. This is a major blow to maintaining world order. Moreover, not only is the US throwing away its responsibility as the “anchor” of the international community, but is morphing into a nationalistic “agitator,” which is the worst thing possible. This is a double blow to the world order.
As a result, there is now a major global countercurrent pushing us back in time towards the “low-level-order” state that was prevalent until seventy years ago, or worse, towards the “dog eat dog” world of the 19th century. In any event, through attitudes such as his disrespect for international institutions, Trump is wreaking havoc by actively seeking to nullify the wealth of wisdom that has been painstakingly accumulated by the international community over the past seven decades.
Holding back this countercurrent should be our primary concern, and in view of the structural nature of the ongoing “nationalistic rampage,” Japan would need some special wisdom to survive through these murky times, as below.
1. Japan must acknowledge that it has no choice but to cast off its ambivalence and become a “normal country.”
2. Japan must acquire the skill and cunning of 19th century-style “balance of power diplomacy.”
3. Japan must resist the current trend of disrespect for international law and strive to shape international public opinion to ensure that minimum standards are observed, particularly from the standpoint of humanitarianism and moral principles
Kagefumi Ueno is a civilizational essayist and former Ambassador to the Holy See.
In retrospect, we could say that it all began in 1991. In the international community, the collapse of the Soviet Union and conclusion of the Cold War in 1991 put an end to an era dominated by ideology, and in turn opened the way to an era of nationalism focused on national interests. Thus the “basic grammar” governing international relations shifted from one characterized by confrontations based on ideology to confrontations driven by nationalism and national interests.
Sometime around 1990, many non-western countries, such as China and Russia, became aware that it was no longer possible to hold their nation together by ideology or ideal. Instead, they began to hold the nation together by drumming up nationalistic sentiments on the political front, while adhering to national interests on the economic front. As a result, nationalism began to flourish everywhere in the international community. Trump’s arrival on the scene indicates that the waves originating from this “1991 Revolution” had finally reached American shores.
Unlike many non-western countries, notably China and Russia, who began to rely increasingly on nationalism to govern their people, western industrialized nations, such as Japan, Western Europe and the United States, with mature societies, could hold their nations together without resorting to nationalism. And in fact, even after 1991 these western countries had kept the broad-minded approach of “post-nationalism,” willingly restraining their sovereignty for the “common good” of the international community.
However, in recent years, political moves that stir up nationalistic sentiment and assertive “our-country-first-ism” have begun to affect industrialized countries as they became swept up by the currents of rampant nationalism of non-western countries, or were confronted by new circumstances such as increased inflow of immigrants. A reversal in the trend, from “post-nationalism” back to “nationalism,” is underway within the industrialized west.
A moderate dose of nationalism does little harm. However, triggered by a plausible target, nationalism has the innate danger of igniting passions that easily give way to radicalism. Take a look around the world, and you will recognize that excessive nationalism causes various “maladies” such as expansionism, xenophobia, isolationism, praise for past glory, bullying of neighboring countries and domestic minorities, and contempt for international norms------in many non-western countries, such as China, Russia, Turkey, India and Egypt. However, they are not a unique phenomenon of non-western countries. Even Western European countries and the United States have now begun to show these symptoms. And, in particular, “Trumpism”, with which we have become quite familiar since last year, is seen to exacerbate such maladies.
Under Trump, the United States has become immersed in the kind of nationalism espoused by countries such as China and Russia, behaving as if it were a “Third World” country. The US has begun to abandon the role of the “defender of universal values” it has played for over seven decades since 1945. This is a major blow to maintaining world order. Moreover, not only is the US throwing away its responsibility as the “anchor” of the international community, but is morphing into a nationalistic “agitator,” which is the worst thing possible. This is a double blow to the world order.
As a result, there is now a major global countercurrent pushing us back in time towards the “low-level-order” state that was prevalent until seventy years ago, or worse, towards the “dog eat dog” world of the 19th century. In any event, through attitudes such as his disrespect for international institutions, Trump is wreaking havoc by actively seeking to nullify the wealth of wisdom that has been painstakingly accumulated by the international community over the past seven decades.
Holding back this countercurrent should be our primary concern, and in view of the structural nature of the ongoing “nationalistic rampage,” Japan would need some special wisdom to survive through these murky times, as below.
1. Japan must acknowledge that it has no choice but to cast off its ambivalence and become a “normal country.”
2. Japan must acquire the skill and cunning of 19th century-style “balance of power diplomacy.”
3. Japan must resist the current trend of disrespect for international law and strive to shape international public opinion to ensure that minimum standards are observed, particularly from the standpoint of humanitarianism and moral principles
Kagefumi Ueno is a civilizational essayist and former Ambassador to the Holy See.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
ナショナリズムの潮流、トランプを呑み込む
（ 日本に必要な智慧とは？ ）
上野 景文 / 杏林大学特任教授
2017年 3月 28日
「世紀の番狂わせ」と言われた昨秋のトランプ候補当選を可能にしたものとして、グローバリズムへのブルーカラーの反発など、米国国内の要因を挙げる向きが多い。それはそうなのだが、同時に、国際社会全体の構造変化を看過する訳にはゆかない。いまや「国際社会の主役」に躍り出た感のある世界大でのナショナリズムの高揚を通して今回の事態を見ると、トランプ当選は、世界の潮流に沿った「自然なこと」であったことが分かる。
振り返れば、「全ては１９９１年に始まった」と言うことだ。国際社会では、1991年のソ連崩壊・冷戦構造の終結を機に、それまでの「イデオロギーの時代」が終焉し、「ナショナリズムの時代」、「国益の時代」が到来した。国家関係を律する「基本文法」が、イデオロギーの対峙からナショナリズム、国益の対峙に転換した訳だ。
1990年頃を境に、中露両国を含む多くの非西洋諸国は、もはやイデオロギー（理念）では国民を纏めてゆけないことを悟り、政治的には「ナショナリズム」を鼓舞することで、経済的には「国益中心主義」を基軸化することで、何とか国民を纏めあげるようになった。かくして、国際社会はナショナリズムのオンパレードとなったが、今回のトランプ登場は、かかる「91年革命」の波がついに米国まで押し寄せるようになったことを物語る。
実は、中露両国をはじめとする多くの非西洋国家が、91年以降、統治にナショナリズムを絡める度合いを高めるようになってからも、社会が成熟していて、ナショナリズムを持ち出さずとも国民を纏めることが可能な西側先進国（日本、西欧、米国）は、国際社会の「全体益」実現のためには主権抑制を厭わずと言う余裕の精神でやって来た（ポスト・ナショナリズム）。
が、非西洋圏を中心とするナショナリズム乱立の「潮流」に押される形で、或いは、移民増加等の諸事情も手伝い、近年、これら先進国でも、ナショナリズム的情念を煽る政治、「自国ファースト」の主張を強める政治が目立つようになっている。「ポスト・ナショナリズム」から「ナショナリズム」への逆流（回帰）が始まりつつある訳だ。
このナショナリズムというものは、適度なレベルとどまる限り問題ないが、何らかのきっかけ（反発の対象）があると、情念に火がつき、容易に先鋭化する危険を内包する。世界を見渡せば、中露両国をはじめ、トルコ、インド、エジプトなど多くの非西洋諸国で、ナショナリズム過剰化が、拡張主義、排外主義、孤立主義、過去の栄光賛美、自国礼賛、近隣国いじめ、国内マイノリティーいじめ、国際規範への挑戦などの様々な「症状」を生んでいることに気づく。非西洋諸国だけではない。西欧諸国も米国も、近年こうした「症状」に染まり始めている。特に昨年来お馴染となったトランプ節は、それらの「症状」を色濃く示している。
トランプの米国が、中露的というか、「第三世界風」とも言えるナショナリズムに染まり、（１９４５年以来70年にわたって務めて来た）「普遍理念の擁護者」の役を放棄しつつあることは、国際秩序維持に大打撃だ。然も、米国は「重石」の役割を棄てんとするだけでなく、よりによって、ナショナリズムの「扇動家」に変身せんとしている。国際秩序にとり「二重」のダメージとなりそうだ。
この結果、70年前まで顕著であった「低秩序」状態に向って、否、19世紀的な「弱肉強食状態」に向って、世界的規模で「逆流」が始まっている。それにしても、トランプが率先して、過去70年間国際社会に営々と蓄積されて来た智慧の集積（歴史）を反故にしようとしていること（国際機関軽視を含め）は、有害である。
先ずは、この「逆流」を押しとどめることが肝要であるが、「ナショナリズムの乱立」が構造的なものである以上、この時代を生き抜くためには、日本とて特別の知恵が必要となろう。3点だけ挙げて筆をおく。
① 「普通の国」に脱皮するほかないとの覚悟を持つこと（まだその覚悟はない）
② 19世紀的勢力均衡外交の術（＝ズルさ）を身につけること
③ （国際法が軽視される風潮に抗し）特に人道主義、モラリズムの立場から、ミニマムスタンダードを固めるべく、国際世論づくりに励むこと
筆者は文明論考家、元バチカン大使
振り返れば、「全ては１９９１年に始まった」と言うことだ。国際社会では、1991年のソ連崩壊・冷戦構造の終結を機に、それまでの「イデオロギーの時代」が終焉し、「ナショナリズムの時代」、「国益の時代」が到来した。国家関係を律する「基本文法」が、イデオロギーの対峙からナショナリズム、国益の対峙に転換した訳だ。
1990年頃を境に、中露両国を含む多くの非西洋諸国は、もはやイデオロギー（理念）では国民を纏めてゆけないことを悟り、政治的には「ナショナリズム」を鼓舞することで、経済的には「国益中心主義」を基軸化することで、何とか国民を纏めあげるようになった。かくして、国際社会はナショナリズムのオンパレードとなったが、今回のトランプ登場は、かかる「91年革命」の波がついに米国まで押し寄せるようになったことを物語る。
実は、中露両国をはじめとする多くの非西洋国家が、91年以降、統治にナショナリズムを絡める度合いを高めるようになってからも、社会が成熟していて、ナショナリズムを持ち出さずとも国民を纏めることが可能な西側先進国（日本、西欧、米国）は、国際社会の「全体益」実現のためには主権抑制を厭わずと言う余裕の精神でやって来た（ポスト・ナショナリズム）。
が、非西洋圏を中心とするナショナリズム乱立の「潮流」に押される形で、或いは、移民増加等の諸事情も手伝い、近年、これら先進国でも、ナショナリズム的情念を煽る政治、「自国ファースト」の主張を強める政治が目立つようになっている。「ポスト・ナショナリズム」から「ナショナリズム」への逆流（回帰）が始まりつつある訳だ。
このナショナリズムというものは、適度なレベルとどまる限り問題ないが、何らかのきっかけ（反発の対象）があると、情念に火がつき、容易に先鋭化する危険を内包する。世界を見渡せば、中露両国をはじめ、トルコ、インド、エジプトなど多くの非西洋諸国で、ナショナリズム過剰化が、拡張主義、排外主義、孤立主義、過去の栄光賛美、自国礼賛、近隣国いじめ、国内マイノリティーいじめ、国際規範への挑戦などの様々な「症状」を生んでいることに気づく。非西洋諸国だけではない。西欧諸国も米国も、近年こうした「症状」に染まり始めている。特に昨年来お馴染となったトランプ節は、それらの「症状」を色濃く示している。
トランプの米国が、中露的というか、「第三世界風」とも言えるナショナリズムに染まり、（１９４５年以来70年にわたって務めて来た）「普遍理念の擁護者」の役を放棄しつつあることは、国際秩序維持に大打撃だ。然も、米国は「重石」の役割を棄てんとするだけでなく、よりによって、ナショナリズムの「扇動家」に変身せんとしている。国際秩序にとり「二重」のダメージとなりそうだ。
この結果、70年前まで顕著であった「低秩序」状態に向って、否、19世紀的な「弱肉強食状態」に向って、世界的規模で「逆流」が始まっている。それにしても、トランプが率先して、過去70年間国際社会に営々と蓄積されて来た智慧の集積（歴史）を反故にしようとしていること（国際機関軽視を含め）は、有害である。
先ずは、この「逆流」を押しとどめることが肝要であるが、「ナショナリズムの乱立」が構造的なものである以上、この時代を生き抜くためには、日本とて特別の知恵が必要となろう。3点だけ挙げて筆をおく。
① 「普通の国」に脱皮するほかないとの覚悟を持つこと（まだその覚悟はない）
② 19世紀的勢力均衡外交の術（＝ズルさ）を身につけること
③ （国際法が軽視される風潮に抗し）特に人道主義、モラリズムの立場から、ミニマムスタンダードを固めるべく、国際世論づくりに励むこと
筆者は文明論考家、元バチカン大使
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟