Will Yuriko Koike Aim for the Premiership?
KURASHIGE Atsuro / Journalist
May 16, 2017
Just how high is Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike determined to go? That is currently the prevailing question in Nagatacho, the political center of Japan.
Koike’s next moves are predictable to some degree up through the election for the 127-seat Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, slated for July 2. Having launched a regional political group called Tomin Fasuto no Kai (Tokyo Citizens First)—effectively her own party—Koike will field candidates in all 42 districts. In recent news, the group announced that it had agreed with Komeito, the second largest party in the assembly, to support each other’s candidates with an eye to securing a single-party majority.
The Tokyo Citizens First group already had 59 seats within reach prior to the agreement. Now that it can count on Komeito votes in districts lacking Komeito candidates, achieving the minimum target of 64 seats has become more than a pipe dream. Koike’s party is almost certain to gain power in the metropolitan assembly overall, even if it falls short of a majority. This will give the governor the footing she needs to forge ahead with the metropolitan government reforms that she called for in her gubernatorial campaign of July 2016.
The real question is whether Koike will content herself with the position of Tokyo governor or seek to use that experience as a steppingstone to the office of prime minister. Koike has spent much of her political career in national politics. In addition to having 24 years as a lawmaker under her belt, she has served as minister of the environment, minister of defense, and chairperson of the Liberal Democratic Party’s General Council, as well as running once for LDP president. She has the right credentials to make the bid.
Moreover, Koike has three strengths that she can draw on should she decide to run for the premiership. The first is her capacity to break through and to mobilize empathy—a trait that she takes from former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Her solo stand against the all-powerful LDP grabbed the hearts of many Tokyoites.
Koike’s second strength is “real politics power,” which she learned from Liberal Party leader Ichiro Ozawa. Ideals alone will not get politicians anywhere; they must explore every avenue to extend the influence of their own party. Jointly backing candidates with the Komeito is one such tactic.
Having the religious group Soka Gakkai as its parent organization, the Komeito commands 7 million votes nationwide. The first (non-Komeito) politician to leverage that clout was Ichiro Ozawa. In the 1990s Ozawa invited the Komeito to join a non-LDP coalition government and, soon thereafter, brought about its merger into a new party called the New Frontier Party. The LDP later poached the Komeito from this alliance and formed the current LDP-Komeito coalition.
And now, Koike’s group and the Komeito have decided to jointly back candidates. This arrangement is thus far limited to the metropolitan assembly election. But if the plan turns out to be a success the partnership could spill over to national politics, those at the LDP headquarters fear. Under the present circumstances, losing the boosting power of Komeito votes would be a fatal blow to the LDP. For Koike, meanwhile, such an accomplishment would give her a potent card for when she makes a comeback to national politics.
Koike’s third strong suit is her inborn pluck and keen judgment. She has built an extensive network through her successive affiliation with five different parties: the Japan New Party, New Frontier Party, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, and Liberal Democratic Party. In 2005, when Prime Minister Koizumi dissolved the House of Representatives and called a general election over the issue of privatizing the postal services, Koike was the first to offer herself as one of Koizumi’s “assassins”—candidates fielded to defeat LDP members opposing postal privatization. She proceeded to score a landslide victory despite being a parachute candidate. Both Ozawa and Koizumi have lavished praised on Koike, calling her “shrewd” and commending her sense of politics and nerve.
The governor does, however, face the challenge of a ticking clock. She will turn 65 in July. Supposing that—for reasons of physical and mental strength—the years until she reaches 70 will be critical for her career trajectory, Koike will need to make her move on national politics within the next five years. And if she serves a full term as governor of Tokyo, that will shave off another few years.
Even so, my prognosis is that Koike will take the plunge. Given her current standing and the trump cards at her disposal, I doubt she would pass up the opportunity to win the seat of prime minister. Timing will be key: First there is the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election. If that goes as planned, Koike’s focus will shift to the next snap election of the lower house, which is certain to take place by December 2018. She could either lead her own party into the election or launch her own faction within the LDP. Until she reaches that juncture, Koike faces the task of solidifying her foothold on the national political scene one step at a time in Ozawa style while at the same time enlisting public support a la Koizumi. And right now, she seems capable of doing just that.
Atsuro Kurashige is Expert Senior Writer at Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
Koike’s next moves are predictable to some degree up through the election for the 127-seat Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, slated for July 2. Having launched a regional political group called Tomin Fasuto no Kai (Tokyo Citizens First)—effectively her own party—Koike will field candidates in all 42 districts. In recent news, the group announced that it had agreed with Komeito, the second largest party in the assembly, to support each other’s candidates with an eye to securing a single-party majority.
The Tokyo Citizens First group already had 59 seats within reach prior to the agreement. Now that it can count on Komeito votes in districts lacking Komeito candidates, achieving the minimum target of 64 seats has become more than a pipe dream. Koike’s party is almost certain to gain power in the metropolitan assembly overall, even if it falls short of a majority. This will give the governor the footing she needs to forge ahead with the metropolitan government reforms that she called for in her gubernatorial campaign of July 2016.
The real question is whether Koike will content herself with the position of Tokyo governor or seek to use that experience as a steppingstone to the office of prime minister. Koike has spent much of her political career in national politics. In addition to having 24 years as a lawmaker under her belt, she has served as minister of the environment, minister of defense, and chairperson of the Liberal Democratic Party’s General Council, as well as running once for LDP president. She has the right credentials to make the bid.
Moreover, Koike has three strengths that she can draw on should she decide to run for the premiership. The first is her capacity to break through and to mobilize empathy—a trait that she takes from former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Her solo stand against the all-powerful LDP grabbed the hearts of many Tokyoites.
Koike’s second strength is “real politics power,” which she learned from Liberal Party leader Ichiro Ozawa. Ideals alone will not get politicians anywhere; they must explore every avenue to extend the influence of their own party. Jointly backing candidates with the Komeito is one such tactic.
Having the religious group Soka Gakkai as its parent organization, the Komeito commands 7 million votes nationwide. The first (non-Komeito) politician to leverage that clout was Ichiro Ozawa. In the 1990s Ozawa invited the Komeito to join a non-LDP coalition government and, soon thereafter, brought about its merger into a new party called the New Frontier Party. The LDP later poached the Komeito from this alliance and formed the current LDP-Komeito coalition.
And now, Koike’s group and the Komeito have decided to jointly back candidates. This arrangement is thus far limited to the metropolitan assembly election. But if the plan turns out to be a success the partnership could spill over to national politics, those at the LDP headquarters fear. Under the present circumstances, losing the boosting power of Komeito votes would be a fatal blow to the LDP. For Koike, meanwhile, such an accomplishment would give her a potent card for when she makes a comeback to national politics.
Koike’s third strong suit is her inborn pluck and keen judgment. She has built an extensive network through her successive affiliation with five different parties: the Japan New Party, New Frontier Party, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, and Liberal Democratic Party. In 2005, when Prime Minister Koizumi dissolved the House of Representatives and called a general election over the issue of privatizing the postal services, Koike was the first to offer herself as one of Koizumi’s “assassins”—candidates fielded to defeat LDP members opposing postal privatization. She proceeded to score a landslide victory despite being a parachute candidate. Both Ozawa and Koizumi have lavished praised on Koike, calling her “shrewd” and commending her sense of politics and nerve.
The governor does, however, face the challenge of a ticking clock. She will turn 65 in July. Supposing that—for reasons of physical and mental strength—the years until she reaches 70 will be critical for her career trajectory, Koike will need to make her move on national politics within the next five years. And if she serves a full term as governor of Tokyo, that will shave off another few years.
Even so, my prognosis is that Koike will take the plunge. Given her current standing and the trump cards at her disposal, I doubt she would pass up the opportunity to win the seat of prime minister. Timing will be key: First there is the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election. If that goes as planned, Koike’s focus will shift to the next snap election of the lower house, which is certain to take place by December 2018. She could either lead her own party into the election or launch her own faction within the LDP. Until she reaches that juncture, Koike faces the task of solidifying her foothold on the national political scene one step at a time in Ozawa style while at the same time enlisting public support a la Koizumi. And right now, she seems capable of doing just that.
Atsuro Kurashige is Expert Senior Writer at Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
小池百合子は首相を目指すのか？
倉重篤郎 / ジャーナリスト
2017年 5月 16日
小池百合子都知事は一体どこまでやる気なのか？これが現在の永田町の最大の関心事である。
７月４日実施の都議選（定数１２７）までは、ある程度予測がつく。「都民ファーストの会」という名称の事実上の小池新党を起ち上げ、全42選挙区で候補を擁立する。直近のニュースでは、単独で過半数を獲得すべく、議会第二勢力の公明党と相互推薦する方針を明らかにしている。
すでに59議席まで獲得のメドが立っていたが、公明党候補不在の選挙区で同党票が見込めることにより、64議席超という目標クリアも決して夢物語でなくなった、という。たとえ、過半数に足りなくても、新都議会が全体として小池与党化するのはほぼ確実と思われる。これで小池知事もいよいよ腰を据えて、自らが昨年８月の知事選で訴えた一連の都政改革にまい進する体制が整うことになる。
問題は、彼女が都知事のイスに満足できるのか。それともそれを足場に首相を目指すのか、にある。もともとは国政の人である。国会議員歴24年、環境庁長官、防衛相、自民党総務会長を歴任、党総裁選にも１回出馬した経験を持つ。キャリアとしては十分である。
しかも、首相を狙うための武器を３つ手にしている。１つは、小泉純一郎元首相譲りの突破力、共感力だ。大自民党を敵に回して空身で闘う、そのスタイルが都民の心を鷲づかみにした。
２つ目に、小沢一郎自由党代表から学んだ政局力（リアルポリティクスパワー）である。政治家は理念だけではやっていけない。自党の勢力を増やすためにあらゆる手段を講じなければならない。今回公明党と相互推薦にした、という戦略は、その現れである。
公明党は創価学会という宗教団体を支持母体にする政党で、全国的に７００万の集票力を持っている。このパワーを最初に活用したのは90年台の小沢一郎氏であった。非自民連立政権に同党を取り込み、続いて新進党という新党に合併させた。次に自民党がそれをもぎ取って現在の自公連立体制を作った。
そして、今回の小池新党と公明の相互推薦である。現段階ではあくまで都議選レベルだが、これが成功した場合、中央政界にまでその連携が広がるのではないか、と自民党本部の面々は恐れている。今の自民党にとって、公明票のかさ上げを失うことは致命傷になる。逆に小池氏にとっては、その実績は国政の場に復帰する際の有力なカードになる。
３つ目に、彼女の自前の度胸と見極めの良さがある。日本新党、新進党、自由党、保守党、自民党と５つの政党を渡り歩き、人脈を広げてきた。小泉首相による郵政民営化の賛否を問う05年の解散総選挙では、民営化反対派を落選させるための刺客候補第１号として名乗りを上げ、落下傘候補ながらも大勝した。小沢、小泉両氏も彼女のことは「したたか。政治感覚も度胸もいい」とベタ褒めだ。
ただし、小池氏にも時間との闘いという難問がある。この７月で65歳となる。体力、気力面で70歳までが勝負どころとすれば、あと５年のうちに国政へのアタックを果たす必要がある。都知事を１期やり遂げるとすれば、残り年数はさらに短縮される。
ただ、筆者の見立ては、小池氏勝負説である。これだけのポジションと勝負カードを持つ小池氏が首相の座を勝ち取る好機を逃すとは思えない。要はタイミングである。まずは都議選である。それが思惑通り進めば、次なるターゲットは、次期衆院解散総選挙だ。来年12月までには必ずある。小池新党か、はたまた自民党小池派か。そこまでは小泉流に世論を味方につけつつ、小沢方式で国政での足場を一歩づつ固める作業を同時並行するしかない。今の小池にはそれが可能に見える。
(筆者は毎日新聞専門編集委員）
７月４日実施の都議選（定数１２７）までは、ある程度予測がつく。「都民ファーストの会」という名称の事実上の小池新党を起ち上げ、全42選挙区で候補を擁立する。直近のニュースでは、単独で過半数を獲得すべく、議会第二勢力の公明党と相互推薦する方針を明らかにしている。
すでに59議席まで獲得のメドが立っていたが、公明党候補不在の選挙区で同党票が見込めることにより、64議席超という目標クリアも決して夢物語でなくなった、という。たとえ、過半数に足りなくても、新都議会が全体として小池与党化するのはほぼ確実と思われる。これで小池知事もいよいよ腰を据えて、自らが昨年８月の知事選で訴えた一連の都政改革にまい進する体制が整うことになる。
問題は、彼女が都知事のイスに満足できるのか。それともそれを足場に首相を目指すのか、にある。もともとは国政の人である。国会議員歴24年、環境庁長官、防衛相、自民党総務会長を歴任、党総裁選にも１回出馬した経験を持つ。キャリアとしては十分である。
しかも、首相を狙うための武器を３つ手にしている。１つは、小泉純一郎元首相譲りの突破力、共感力だ。大自民党を敵に回して空身で闘う、そのスタイルが都民の心を鷲づかみにした。
２つ目に、小沢一郎自由党代表から学んだ政局力（リアルポリティクスパワー）である。政治家は理念だけではやっていけない。自党の勢力を増やすためにあらゆる手段を講じなければならない。今回公明党と相互推薦にした、という戦略は、その現れである。
公明党は創価学会という宗教団体を支持母体にする政党で、全国的に７００万の集票力を持っている。このパワーを最初に活用したのは90年台の小沢一郎氏であった。非自民連立政権に同党を取り込み、続いて新進党という新党に合併させた。次に自民党がそれをもぎ取って現在の自公連立体制を作った。
そして、今回の小池新党と公明の相互推薦である。現段階ではあくまで都議選レベルだが、これが成功した場合、中央政界にまでその連携が広がるのではないか、と自民党本部の面々は恐れている。今の自民党にとって、公明票のかさ上げを失うことは致命傷になる。逆に小池氏にとっては、その実績は国政の場に復帰する際の有力なカードになる。
３つ目に、彼女の自前の度胸と見極めの良さがある。日本新党、新進党、自由党、保守党、自民党と５つの政党を渡り歩き、人脈を広げてきた。小泉首相による郵政民営化の賛否を問う05年の解散総選挙では、民営化反対派を落選させるための刺客候補第１号として名乗りを上げ、落下傘候補ながらも大勝した。小沢、小泉両氏も彼女のことは「したたか。政治感覚も度胸もいい」とベタ褒めだ。
ただし、小池氏にも時間との闘いという難問がある。この７月で65歳となる。体力、気力面で70歳までが勝負どころとすれば、あと５年のうちに国政へのアタックを果たす必要がある。都知事を１期やり遂げるとすれば、残り年数はさらに短縮される。
ただ、筆者の見立ては、小池氏勝負説である。これだけのポジションと勝負カードを持つ小池氏が首相の座を勝ち取る好機を逃すとは思えない。要はタイミングである。まずは都議選である。それが思惑通り進めば、次なるターゲットは、次期衆院解散総選挙だ。来年12月までには必ずある。小池新党か、はたまた自民党小池派か。そこまでは小泉流に世論を味方につけつつ、小沢方式で国政での足場を一歩づつ固める作業を同時並行するしかない。今の小池にはそれが可能に見える。
(筆者は毎日新聞専門編集委員）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟