Calling on Germany to Provide a Fiscal Stimulus to Help France and Secure the System of Free Trade and Open Markets
NISHIKAWA Megumi / Journalist
August 1, 2017
In the French parliamentary elections held in June, 60 percent of the seats were won by President Macron’s new party, the Republic on the Move, and its allies. Now, with a solid power base, the Macron administration has the golden opportunity to embark on domestic reforms that have remained stalled for many years. Germany’s Chancellor Merkel should back this move by reversing her government’s ongoing policy of austerity and instead expand spending on areas including public projects. Such a policy shift would ultimately lead to safeguarding free trade and open markets.
President Macron has vowed to protect free trade and open markets, and to lead the European Union (EU) in partnership with Germany. At home, he will seek to liberalize the labor market to revitalize the economy and lower the consistently high unemployment rate. Macron is on the right track.
For France, the prolonged economic slump has meant a decline in its political leadership within the EU. And that in turn has changed the very nature of the EU. French labor unions wield enormous authority, making it virtually impossible for companies to lay off workers. For this reason, companies are extremely cautious about hiring, which has been a factor behind the 20 percent unemployment rate among young people. In light of the robust economies enjoyed by Germany and other countries, it was clear that France also needed to reduce government interference, deregulate, and introduce competition to raise mobility in its rigid labor market. Previous governments did not just sit on the sidelines, but each effort at reform had fallen flat as labor unions budged in with mass street demonstrations.
President Macron is different from the elites of the past. While the French elite would ordinarily build their careers by moving from one state enterprise to another, Macron was an investment banker handling M&A deals in a global company exposed to intense US-style competition. And it was this experience that convinced him that the key to revitalizing the economy lay in ensuring free trade, open markets and liberalization of the labor market. As the Minister for the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs under the Socialist government, he successfully pushed through regulatory reforms known as the Macron Law. Allowing shops to stay open on Sundays and liberalizing long-distance bus services were baby steps for Macron, but even these reforms were met with stubborn opposition from the party ranks. Realizing the limits to pursuing further reforms within the framework of an established party, he was motivated to leave the Socialist Party and set up a political party of his own.
Now is the time for Chancellor Merkel to reverse her austerity policy and boost various investments including public investment as a way to provide indirect support for President Macron’s reforms. Labor mobility will cause a temporary rise in unemployment and bring down wages, creating the need to prop up the economy with means including a fiscal stimulus. However, under EU rules, France has no room to expand its budget deficit. And so President Macron has proposed a common budget for the EU, in the hope that countries such as Germany would contribute to that budget, which will then be invested throughout the region to revitalize the economy. Aside from whether it should join such a scheme, there are plenty of reasons why Germany should boost public investment to support President Macron. Should fickle public opinion turn against Macron and bring down his reforms, it will have a grave impact on Germany as well as the EU as a whole. Now is the time for Chancellor Merkel to demonstrate the strength of the Franco-German partnership by taking action.
The world would also benefit. During the G20 summit meeting held in Hamburg, Chancellor Merkel repeatedly emphasized the importance of free trade and open markets. However, to maintain this system, Germany should not stash away its trade surplus, but let it circulate through public investment. That will lubricate the system of free trade and open markets, enriching many countries through their mutual transactions. And that in turn will present an ideal antithesis to selfish protectionism.
A virtuous cycle is currently at work for the supporters of free trade and open markets. In addition to the emergence of President Macron and the electoral victory of his party, Japan and the EU have agreed on an overall framework for their Economic Partnership Agreement. I hope Germany will take the bold step of expanding public investment to provide a further boost to the cycle.
Megumi Nishikawa is Contributing Editor for the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
President Macron has vowed to protect free trade and open markets, and to lead the European Union (EU) in partnership with Germany. At home, he will seek to liberalize the labor market to revitalize the economy and lower the consistently high unemployment rate. Macron is on the right track.
For France, the prolonged economic slump has meant a decline in its political leadership within the EU. And that in turn has changed the very nature of the EU. French labor unions wield enormous authority, making it virtually impossible for companies to lay off workers. For this reason, companies are extremely cautious about hiring, which has been a factor behind the 20 percent unemployment rate among young people. In light of the robust economies enjoyed by Germany and other countries, it was clear that France also needed to reduce government interference, deregulate, and introduce competition to raise mobility in its rigid labor market. Previous governments did not just sit on the sidelines, but each effort at reform had fallen flat as labor unions budged in with mass street demonstrations.
President Macron is different from the elites of the past. While the French elite would ordinarily build their careers by moving from one state enterprise to another, Macron was an investment banker handling M&A deals in a global company exposed to intense US-style competition. And it was this experience that convinced him that the key to revitalizing the economy lay in ensuring free trade, open markets and liberalization of the labor market. As the Minister for the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs under the Socialist government, he successfully pushed through regulatory reforms known as the Macron Law. Allowing shops to stay open on Sundays and liberalizing long-distance bus services were baby steps for Macron, but even these reforms were met with stubborn opposition from the party ranks. Realizing the limits to pursuing further reforms within the framework of an established party, he was motivated to leave the Socialist Party and set up a political party of his own.
Now is the time for Chancellor Merkel to reverse her austerity policy and boost various investments including public investment as a way to provide indirect support for President Macron’s reforms. Labor mobility will cause a temporary rise in unemployment and bring down wages, creating the need to prop up the economy with means including a fiscal stimulus. However, under EU rules, France has no room to expand its budget deficit. And so President Macron has proposed a common budget for the EU, in the hope that countries such as Germany would contribute to that budget, which will then be invested throughout the region to revitalize the economy. Aside from whether it should join such a scheme, there are plenty of reasons why Germany should boost public investment to support President Macron. Should fickle public opinion turn against Macron and bring down his reforms, it will have a grave impact on Germany as well as the EU as a whole. Now is the time for Chancellor Merkel to demonstrate the strength of the Franco-German partnership by taking action.
The world would also benefit. During the G20 summit meeting held in Hamburg, Chancellor Merkel repeatedly emphasized the importance of free trade and open markets. However, to maintain this system, Germany should not stash away its trade surplus, but let it circulate through public investment. That will lubricate the system of free trade and open markets, enriching many countries through their mutual transactions. And that in turn will present an ideal antithesis to selfish protectionism.
A virtuous cycle is currently at work for the supporters of free trade and open markets. In addition to the emergence of President Macron and the electoral victory of his party, Japan and the EU have agreed on an overall framework for their Economic Partnership Agreement. I hope Germany will take the bold step of expanding public investment to provide a further boost to the cycle.
Megumi Nishikawa is Contributing Editor for the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
ドイツは財政出動でフランスを、そして自由貿易・開放体制を支援しよう
西川恵 / ジャーナリスト
2017年 8月 1日
フランス国民議会（下院）選挙（６月）で、マクロン大統領の新党・共和党前進が系列政党と合わせて全議席の６割に当たる議席を獲得した。政権基盤を盤石にしたマクロン政権にとって、長年停滞していた国内改革に乗り出す絶好の機会を得た。メルケル独首相はこれを後押しするため、これまでの緊縮政策を転換して公共投資など支出拡大に動くべきだろう。それは自由貿易・開放体制を守ることにもつながる。
マクロン大統領は自由貿易・開放体制を擁護し、ドイツと提携して欧州連合（ＥＵ）を引っ張っていくと主張する。また国内では労働市場を流動化させて経済を活性化し、高止まりしている失業率を下げることを狙う。これは方向として正しい。
フランスは長年の経済低迷によってＥＵの中において政治的指導力を落としてきた。ＥＵが変調をきたした一因でもある。フランスは労働組合の権限が強く、企業が従業員を辞めさせるのは至難の業だ。このため企業は新規雇用に極めて慎重で、これが20％台に達する若年層の失業率の要因となってきた。経済が好調なドイツなどに照らせば、フランスも国の干渉を減らして規制を緩和し、競争原理を導入し、硬直した労働市場を流動化させることが必要なのは明らかだった。歴代政権がこれを座視していたわけではないが、改革に着手しようとすると労働組合が街頭デモに打って出て、改革は腰砕けに終わってきた。
マクロン大統領が従来のエリートと異なるのは、ふつうフランスのエリートは規制で守られた国有企業を渡り歩くのに対して、マクロン氏は投資銀行という米国流の厳しい競争にさらされたグローバル企業で、企業の合併買収を数々手掛けてきたことである。ここでの経験が、自由貿易・開放体制と労働市場の流動化こそが経済を活性化させるカギと確信させた。社会党政権で経済相だった時、マクロン法と呼ばれる規制改革を実現させた。日曜日における商店の営業日数の拡大、長距離バス路線開設の自由化などマクロン氏には改革への小さな一歩だったが、これさえも党内で強い抵抗にあった。これが「既成政党でこれ以上の改革は無理」と社会党を飛び出し、新党を立ち上げる原動力になった。
マクロン大統領の改革を成功させるために、メルケル首相はいまこそ緊縮政策を転換し、公共投資など各種投資を増やして、改革を側面支援するべきだと私は思う。労働市場の流動化は一時的に失業を増やし、賃金の停滞を招くため、財政出動などで経済を下支えする必要がある。しかしＥＵルールによってフランスはこれ以上財政赤字を増やす余裕はない。マクロン大統領がＥＵ共通予算を提案しているのも、ドイツなどにＥＵ共通予算へ拠出してもらい、これをＥＵ域内の投資に振り向けて、経済を活性化させようとの目論見だ。ＥＵ共通予算に乗るかどうかは別にして、ドイツは公共投資を促進し、マクロン大統領を側面支援するに十分な理由がある。移り気の世論が反マクロンに転換し改革が挫折した場合、ドイツ、ひいてはＥＵに大きな打撃となる。メルケル首相は仏独提携をいまこそ行動で示すべきだ。
これはまた世界のためでもある。ハンブルグで開かれたＧ20首脳会議で、メルケル首相は自由貿易・開放体制の重要性を繰り返し強調した。しかしこの自由貿易・開放体制を維持していくためには、ドイツは貿易黒字をため込むだけでなく、公共投資などで循環させていくことが必要だ。これによって自由貿易・開放体制は潤滑油を得、相互依存関係の中で多くの国が豊かになることができる。これは自分だけさえよければいいという保護主義への格好のアンチテーゼとなる。
いま自由貿易・開放体制を擁護する人たちにとっていい回転が生まれている。マクロン大統領の登場と、同大統領の与党の勝利に加え、日・ＥＵは経済連携協定（ＥＰＡ）で大枠合意した。このいい回転にもう一つ推力を与えるためドイツが公共投資に踏み切ることを期待したい。
(筆者は毎日新聞客員編集委員）
マクロン大統領は自由貿易・開放体制を擁護し、ドイツと提携して欧州連合（ＥＵ）を引っ張っていくと主張する。また国内では労働市場を流動化させて経済を活性化し、高止まりしている失業率を下げることを狙う。これは方向として正しい。
フランスは長年の経済低迷によってＥＵの中において政治的指導力を落としてきた。ＥＵが変調をきたした一因でもある。フランスは労働組合の権限が強く、企業が従業員を辞めさせるのは至難の業だ。このため企業は新規雇用に極めて慎重で、これが20％台に達する若年層の失業率の要因となってきた。経済が好調なドイツなどに照らせば、フランスも国の干渉を減らして規制を緩和し、競争原理を導入し、硬直した労働市場を流動化させることが必要なのは明らかだった。歴代政権がこれを座視していたわけではないが、改革に着手しようとすると労働組合が街頭デモに打って出て、改革は腰砕けに終わってきた。
マクロン大統領が従来のエリートと異なるのは、ふつうフランスのエリートは規制で守られた国有企業を渡り歩くのに対して、マクロン氏は投資銀行という米国流の厳しい競争にさらされたグローバル企業で、企業の合併買収を数々手掛けてきたことである。ここでの経験が、自由貿易・開放体制と労働市場の流動化こそが経済を活性化させるカギと確信させた。社会党政権で経済相だった時、マクロン法と呼ばれる規制改革を実現させた。日曜日における商店の営業日数の拡大、長距離バス路線開設の自由化などマクロン氏には改革への小さな一歩だったが、これさえも党内で強い抵抗にあった。これが「既成政党でこれ以上の改革は無理」と社会党を飛び出し、新党を立ち上げる原動力になった。
マクロン大統領の改革を成功させるために、メルケル首相はいまこそ緊縮政策を転換し、公共投資など各種投資を増やして、改革を側面支援するべきだと私は思う。労働市場の流動化は一時的に失業を増やし、賃金の停滞を招くため、財政出動などで経済を下支えする必要がある。しかしＥＵルールによってフランスはこれ以上財政赤字を増やす余裕はない。マクロン大統領がＥＵ共通予算を提案しているのも、ドイツなどにＥＵ共通予算へ拠出してもらい、これをＥＵ域内の投資に振り向けて、経済を活性化させようとの目論見だ。ＥＵ共通予算に乗るかどうかは別にして、ドイツは公共投資を促進し、マクロン大統領を側面支援するに十分な理由がある。移り気の世論が反マクロンに転換し改革が挫折した場合、ドイツ、ひいてはＥＵに大きな打撃となる。メルケル首相は仏独提携をいまこそ行動で示すべきだ。
これはまた世界のためでもある。ハンブルグで開かれたＧ20首脳会議で、メルケル首相は自由貿易・開放体制の重要性を繰り返し強調した。しかしこの自由貿易・開放体制を維持していくためには、ドイツは貿易黒字をため込むだけでなく、公共投資などで循環させていくことが必要だ。これによって自由貿易・開放体制は潤滑油を得、相互依存関係の中で多くの国が豊かになることができる。これは自分だけさえよければいいという保護主義への格好のアンチテーゼとなる。
いま自由貿易・開放体制を擁護する人たちにとっていい回転が生まれている。マクロン大統領の登場と、同大統領の与党の勝利に加え、日・ＥＵは経済連携協定（ＥＰＡ）で大枠合意した。このいい回転にもう一つ推力を与えるためドイツが公共投資に踏み切ることを期待したい。
(筆者は毎日新聞客員編集委員）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟