Xi Jinping is Leading China towards a Hybrid Authoritarian State
BANDO Kenji / Senior Editorial Writer, Mainichi Shimbun newspaper
January 26, 2018
China’s President Xi Jinping is on course to be reelected at the National People’s Congress in March, kicking off his second term at the helm. The doctrine that bears Mr. Xi’s name, the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, will be written into the national Constitution, following its inclusion in the Constitution of the Communist Party of China. Let us examine the direction in which China is headed under Mr. Xi’s leadership, now that he has gained authority comparable to that of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
As it turns out, his vision is that of building a hybrid authoritarian state – a political system governed by the Party elite with undertones of traditional Chinese elements, which will harness information technologies such as the internet and artificial intelligence (AI) to maximize efficiency. The Chinese Dream pursued by Mr. Xi is to create an advanced nation under this political system that rivals the United States.
Although concentration of power in Mr. Xi’s hands may seem to bolster his dictatorship, the deep-seated view among intellectuals in China rationalizes the move as a means to break through the difficult phase, including structural reforms. Tighter controls are being placed on freedom of speech on the internet, and greater pressure applied to activists and lawyers championing human rights. Yet, there is a subtle difference between the Chinese system and Stalinist regimes that suppress human rights.
The Chinese elite consists primarily of the 90 million members of the Communist Party and also includes lawyers and the media. The Party demands that they strictly toe the line and will not tolerate criticism. Meanwhile, the legitimacy of Communist Party rule is to be maintained by raising the quality of people’s lives. This is the direction of reform envisaged by Mr. Xi. Even in an oppressive, controlled society, it may be possible to limit discontent among the people, as long as living standards continue to rise. One example is Singapore, which has succeeded in becoming an advanced nation while maintaining an authoritarian regime in terms of its politics.
Naturally, the circumstances surrounding a large, populous nation such as China are different from that of a small island nation like Singapore. However, it seems as though China is seeking to become a “Singapore of 1.4 billion people” by utilizing the benefits of the information revolution, such as Big Data and AI. China is emerging as a global leader in applying IT to new businesses, such as cashless settlement based on electronic commerce and smartphone payment, and bicycle sharing. It is also expanding its administrative services by processing applications and accepting tax payments via online networks. In the years ahead, China is expected to make active use of Big Data to predict consumer trends and exercise control over its people. If it is deemed useful for improving efficiency and nurturing new industries, China is likely to step into domains that democratic countries would hesitate to enter due to privacy concerns.
While China may appear to be a “nation state” on the surface, in reality it has not completely dismantled its feudal class system, in which family registers are maintained separately for the cities and farming villages. Meanwhile, ethnic minorities such as the Mongols, Uighurs and Tibetans do not necessarily hold a shared identity with the state. By modernizing its ability to govern, Mr. Xi seeks to use the power of the Communist Party to integrate the nation. The aim is to ensure that the Communist regime is recognized both inside and outside the country as the immutable national polity of China.
China will continue to pursue economic development as its top priority. It is likely to do what it can to avoid any confrontations with the United States – a superpower, and seek to maintain regional peace by remaining on good terms with its neighboring countries. However, China’s global interests have expanded in line with its development. It also harbors a growing desire to venture outward, as demonstrated by its “Belt and Road” initiative of developing an extensive economic region.
Frictions with countries seeking to maintain the existing order, such as Japan and the United States, are unlikely to disappear any time soon. And as China seeks to protect its sprawling global interests, it will certainly continue to build up its arms. Regardless of its intentions, in reality the very presence of an expanding China has become the driving force that is changing the existing international order.
We should not underestimate the governing capabilities of the Communist Party, which has managed to grow over the years, despite the weighty issues it has faced. There are brains such as Wang Hunin, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and head of policy research, who has risen to the top leadership by formulating national strategy under three successive leaders – Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping.
Sun Yat-sen, who overthrew the Qing Dynasty in the Xinhai Revolution, envisaged the political system in post-revolution China progressing from military rule to a political tutelage phase that would pave the way for the ultimate establishment of a constitutional democracy. Sun felt it would be difficult to immediately implement a US-style democracy, because the Chinese masses were undereducated and still influenced by several thousand years of despotic rule. His idea of a political tutelage phase was similar to one-party rule by a political party created by the elite. It also strongly reflected China’s political tradition, in which the elite governed in accordance with Confucianism. Elitist politics was renounced by Mao Zedong, but today’s system of Communist Party rule bears a close resemblance to the political tutelage phase envisaged by Sun. Mr. Xi also emphasizes the need to give modern meaning to Confucian traditions including the teachings of Wang Yangming. We should keep in mind that Mr. Xi’s political ideal lies along the extended path of Chinese tradition.
As it turns out, his vision is that of building a hybrid authoritarian state – a political system governed by the Party elite with undertones of traditional Chinese elements, which will harness information technologies such as the internet and artificial intelligence (AI) to maximize efficiency. The Chinese Dream pursued by Mr. Xi is to create an advanced nation under this political system that rivals the United States.
Although concentration of power in Mr. Xi’s hands may seem to bolster his dictatorship, the deep-seated view among intellectuals in China rationalizes the move as a means to break through the difficult phase, including structural reforms. Tighter controls are being placed on freedom of speech on the internet, and greater pressure applied to activists and lawyers championing human rights. Yet, there is a subtle difference between the Chinese system and Stalinist regimes that suppress human rights.
The Chinese elite consists primarily of the 90 million members of the Communist Party and also includes lawyers and the media. The Party demands that they strictly toe the line and will not tolerate criticism. Meanwhile, the legitimacy of Communist Party rule is to be maintained by raising the quality of people’s lives. This is the direction of reform envisaged by Mr. Xi. Even in an oppressive, controlled society, it may be possible to limit discontent among the people, as long as living standards continue to rise. One example is Singapore, which has succeeded in becoming an advanced nation while maintaining an authoritarian regime in terms of its politics.
Naturally, the circumstances surrounding a large, populous nation such as China are different from that of a small island nation like Singapore. However, it seems as though China is seeking to become a “Singapore of 1.4 billion people” by utilizing the benefits of the information revolution, such as Big Data and AI. China is emerging as a global leader in applying IT to new businesses, such as cashless settlement based on electronic commerce and smartphone payment, and bicycle sharing. It is also expanding its administrative services by processing applications and accepting tax payments via online networks. In the years ahead, China is expected to make active use of Big Data to predict consumer trends and exercise control over its people. If it is deemed useful for improving efficiency and nurturing new industries, China is likely to step into domains that democratic countries would hesitate to enter due to privacy concerns.
While China may appear to be a “nation state” on the surface, in reality it has not completely dismantled its feudal class system, in which family registers are maintained separately for the cities and farming villages. Meanwhile, ethnic minorities such as the Mongols, Uighurs and Tibetans do not necessarily hold a shared identity with the state. By modernizing its ability to govern, Mr. Xi seeks to use the power of the Communist Party to integrate the nation. The aim is to ensure that the Communist regime is recognized both inside and outside the country as the immutable national polity of China.
China will continue to pursue economic development as its top priority. It is likely to do what it can to avoid any confrontations with the United States – a superpower, and seek to maintain regional peace by remaining on good terms with its neighboring countries. However, China’s global interests have expanded in line with its development. It also harbors a growing desire to venture outward, as demonstrated by its “Belt and Road” initiative of developing an extensive economic region.
Frictions with countries seeking to maintain the existing order, such as Japan and the United States, are unlikely to disappear any time soon. And as China seeks to protect its sprawling global interests, it will certainly continue to build up its arms. Regardless of its intentions, in reality the very presence of an expanding China has become the driving force that is changing the existing international order.
We should not underestimate the governing capabilities of the Communist Party, which has managed to grow over the years, despite the weighty issues it has faced. There are brains such as Wang Hunin, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and head of policy research, who has risen to the top leadership by formulating national strategy under three successive leaders – Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping.
Sun Yat-sen, who overthrew the Qing Dynasty in the Xinhai Revolution, envisaged the political system in post-revolution China progressing from military rule to a political tutelage phase that would pave the way for the ultimate establishment of a constitutional democracy. Sun felt it would be difficult to immediately implement a US-style democracy, because the Chinese masses were undereducated and still influenced by several thousand years of despotic rule. His idea of a political tutelage phase was similar to one-party rule by a political party created by the elite. It also strongly reflected China’s political tradition, in which the elite governed in accordance with Confucianism. Elitist politics was renounced by Mao Zedong, but today’s system of Communist Party rule bears a close resemblance to the political tutelage phase envisaged by Sun. Mr. Xi also emphasizes the need to give modern meaning to Confucian traditions including the teachings of Wang Yangming. We should keep in mind that Mr. Xi’s political ideal lies along the extended path of Chinese tradition.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
ハイブリッドな権威主義体制目指す習近平の中国
坂東賢治 / 坂東賢治/毎日新聞専門編集委員
2018年 1月 26日
習近平国家主席は３月の全国人民代表大会で再選され、２期目の政権運営が本格化する。習氏の名前を冠した「習近平による新時代の中国の特色ある社会主義」思想が共産党綱領に続き、憲法にも盛り込まれる。毛沢東、鄧小平に並ぶ権威を得た習氏が目指す中国政治の行方について考えたい。
結論を先に言えば、中国の伝統的要素を持った共産党のエリート政治をインターネットや人工知能（ＡＩ）などの情報技術によって最大限に効率化した体制、ハイブリッドな権威主義体制の構築というイメージだ。その体制で米国に並ぶ先進国を作り上げようというのが習氏の「中国の夢」だ。
習氏への権力集中は独裁体制の強化のように見えるが、中国国内の知識人層には構造改革など困難な局面を突破するための権力集中と合理化する見方が根強い。インターネット上の言論規制や人権活動家、人権派弁護士への締め付けも強まっている。しかし、スターリン主義のような人権抑圧体制とは微妙に異なる。
９０００万人の党員を中心に弁護士やメディアなどを含めたエリート層には堅固な思想を求め、共産党批判を許さない。その一方で国民の生活の質を高め、共産党統治の正統性を保っていく。これが習氏が目指す改革の方向性だ。息苦しい管理社会ではあっても生活の質が上がっていくなら体制に異を唱える国民はそう増えないかもしれない。政治的には権威体制を維持しながら、先進国化を実現したシンガポールがその例だ。
もちろん、人口大国の中国と小さな島国であるシンガポールとでは状況が異なる。しかし、中国はビッグデータやＡＩなど情報革命の成果を活用しながら「14億のシンガポール」を実現しようとしているように見える。電子商取引やスマホ決済によるキャッシュレス化、シェア自転車など情報技術を応用した新ビジネスで中国は世界の最先端を走りつつある。行政分野でもネットを通じた申請手続きや税の納付などのサービス拡充を進めている。今後、ビッグデータを国民の消費予測や管理などに積極的に利用していくことが予想される。効率性の向上や新産業の育成に役立つなら、民主主義国家ではプライバシーへの配慮から簡単には踏み切れない領域にも踏み出すだろう。
中国は外見からは「国民国家」のように見えるが、実際には都市と農村の戸籍が分かれ、封建的な身分制度が完全には解消されていない。一方、モンゴル、ウイグル、チベットなどの少数民族は国家に対するアイデンティティを必ずしも共有していない。習氏は統治能力の現代化を通じて共産党の力で国民統合を進めようとしている。その目的は共産党体制を変えることのできない中国の「国体」として内外に認知させることにあるといえる。
中国の最優先課題はなお、経済発展にある。超大国である米国との衝突はできる限り回避しようとするだろうし、近隣諸国とも良好な関係を維持して平和な周辺環境を保とうとはするだろう。しかし、発展に伴い中国の利害もグローバルに広がった。広域経済圏構想「一帯一路」に見られるように外に打って出ようという意欲も拡大している。
現行秩序を守ろうとする日米などとの摩擦は簡単にはなくなるまい。世界に広がる国益を守ろうとすれば、軍備の拡張を続けることも確実だ。中国が意図しようとしまいと、拡大する中国の存在そのものが既存の国際秩序を変えていく力になっているのが現実だ。
ただ、さまざまな問題を抱えながら発展を続けてきた共産党の統治能力の高さは馬鹿にできない。江沢民、胡錦濤、習近平と３代のトップに仕えて国家戦略を練り、最高指導部にまで上り詰めた王滬寧（政治局）常務委員のような頭脳もいる。
辛亥革命で清朝を倒した孫文は革命後の政体として軍政、訓政を経て憲政に（移行）するという絵を描いた。中国の民衆の知識レベルは低く、数千年にわたる専制の影響もあるため、米国のような民主主義をすぐに実行することは困難という判断だった。訓政はエリート層が作る政党を中心にした一党独裁に近い考え方だ。儒教に基づくエリート支配という中国政治の伝統の影響も色濃い。毛沢東はエリート政治を否定しようとしたが、現在の共産党体制（は）孫文が構想した訓政によく似ている。習氏は陽明学など儒教の伝統を現代に生かす必要性も強調している。習氏の目指す政治が中国の伝統の延長線上にあることにも留意すべきだろう。
筆者は毎日新聞専門編集委員
結論を先に言えば、中国の伝統的要素を持った共産党のエリート政治をインターネットや人工知能（ＡＩ）などの情報技術によって最大限に効率化した体制、ハイブリッドな権威主義体制の構築というイメージだ。その体制で米国に並ぶ先進国を作り上げようというのが習氏の「中国の夢」だ。
習氏への権力集中は独裁体制の強化のように見えるが、中国国内の知識人層には構造改革など困難な局面を突破するための権力集中と合理化する見方が根強い。インターネット上の言論規制や人権活動家、人権派弁護士への締め付けも強まっている。しかし、スターリン主義のような人権抑圧体制とは微妙に異なる。
９０００万人の党員を中心に弁護士やメディアなどを含めたエリート層には堅固な思想を求め、共産党批判を許さない。その一方で国民の生活の質を高め、共産党統治の正統性を保っていく。これが習氏が目指す改革の方向性だ。息苦しい管理社会ではあっても生活の質が上がっていくなら体制に異を唱える国民はそう増えないかもしれない。政治的には権威体制を維持しながら、先進国化を実現したシンガポールがその例だ。
もちろん、人口大国の中国と小さな島国であるシンガポールとでは状況が異なる。しかし、中国はビッグデータやＡＩなど情報革命の成果を活用しながら「14億のシンガポール」を実現しようとしているように見える。電子商取引やスマホ決済によるキャッシュレス化、シェア自転車など情報技術を応用した新ビジネスで中国は世界の最先端を走りつつある。行政分野でもネットを通じた申請手続きや税の納付などのサービス拡充を進めている。今後、ビッグデータを国民の消費予測や管理などに積極的に利用していくことが予想される。効率性の向上や新産業の育成に役立つなら、民主主義国家ではプライバシーへの配慮から簡単には踏み切れない領域にも踏み出すだろう。
中国は外見からは「国民国家」のように見えるが、実際には都市と農村の戸籍が分かれ、封建的な身分制度が完全には解消されていない。一方、モンゴル、ウイグル、チベットなどの少数民族は国家に対するアイデンティティを必ずしも共有していない。習氏は統治能力の現代化を通じて共産党の力で国民統合を進めようとしている。その目的は共産党体制を変えることのできない中国の「国体」として内外に認知させることにあるといえる。
中国の最優先課題はなお、経済発展にある。超大国である米国との衝突はできる限り回避しようとするだろうし、近隣諸国とも良好な関係を維持して平和な周辺環境を保とうとはするだろう。しかし、発展に伴い中国の利害もグローバルに広がった。広域経済圏構想「一帯一路」に見られるように外に打って出ようという意欲も拡大している。
現行秩序を守ろうとする日米などとの摩擦は簡単にはなくなるまい。世界に広がる国益を守ろうとすれば、軍備の拡張を続けることも確実だ。中国が意図しようとしまいと、拡大する中国の存在そのものが既存の国際秩序を変えていく力になっているのが現実だ。
ただ、さまざまな問題を抱えながら発展を続けてきた共産党の統治能力の高さは馬鹿にできない。江沢民、胡錦濤、習近平と３代のトップに仕えて国家戦略を練り、最高指導部にまで上り詰めた王滬寧（政治局）常務委員のような頭脳もいる。
辛亥革命で清朝を倒した孫文は革命後の政体として軍政、訓政を経て憲政に（移行）するという絵を描いた。中国の民衆の知識レベルは低く、数千年にわたる専制の影響もあるため、米国のような民主主義をすぐに実行することは困難という判断だった。訓政はエリート層が作る政党を中心にした一党独裁に近い考え方だ。儒教に基づくエリート支配という中国政治の伝統の影響も色濃い。毛沢東はエリート政治を否定しようとしたが、現在の共産党体制（は）孫文が構想した訓政によく似ている。習氏は陽明学など儒教の伝統を現代に生かす必要性も強調している。習氏の目指す政治が中国の伝統の延長線上にあることにも留意すべきだろう。
筆者は毎日新聞専門編集委員
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟