Trump’s two-term presidency may bring about a “world state”
KAWATO Akio / Former Japanese Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
July 26, 2018
The US President Donald Trump has started to launch gamble-like risky diplomatic initiatives one after another, starting from pulling out of the nuclear agreement with Iran, the meeting with North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un, the remarkable tariff hike against China and the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump’s manner is rough and simplistic: he labels friends and foes with the volume of trade deficit as the only criterion, turns everything, even alliances, into bargaining chips for economic gains, and disengages the US from “merely costly” involvement in conflicts abroad. This approach resonates with the bulk of the masses in the US.
The Democrats doggedly criticize Trump, but so far are unable to present viable policy alternatives which are broad enough to attract wide strata of anti-Trump voters. Besides, they have not yet found a proper presidential candidate.
The conventional wisdom is that there is always a self-correcting mechanism at work for US policies that swing to the extreme. But this time Trump has ousted almost all of the staffs who would dare to dissuade him from taking reckless steps. The Republicans in Congress not only fail to restrain Trump but even ride on his bandwagon willingly for their own reelection; this is inevitable because 90% of the Republican supporters approve Trump(*1). If things proceed this way, Trump may well be reelected, ruling the US for eight years altogether. But even by the end of his first term, Trump may have dramatically changed (or overturned) the world order.
The mainstays of the post-war global framework, such as the United Nations, NATO and other alliances, IMF and WTO, will lose efficacy, although they may still linger on formally. The G7 summit, having lost serious engagement by the US, will most probably cease to exist. The ideological confrontation between democracy and autocracy will become blurred, making the world look like the late 19th century Europe, in which nations changed their partners for reasons not of ideology but convenience. In those years today’s friend easily became a foe tomorrow.
Now, ironically enough, the US-Russia relations will become the closest (or the least antagonistic) of all big power relations, because Russia is not a real threat to the US. Putin’s Russia does not possess sufficient power for pre-meditated territorial expansion, nor can it become an economic menace to the US.
It is true that Russia keeps a large number of missiles with nuclear warheads, but the US is poised to boost its defense budget by 13% in 2018 (the increment alone is equivalent to the entire annual defense budget of Russia), and its lion’s share will be spent for modernization of the nuclear arsenal and for fortification of the USA itself against nuclear attacks. As long as Russia is deterred in this way, it will not become a formidable enemy.
If the US and Russia get along in this way, Russia’s dependence on China as a quasi
-ally against the US will diminish. However, China by then will most probably lose its economic stamina, being subdued by Trump’s America, and become too weak to aspire for hegemony in the Eurasian continent. Therefore, even if China and Russia colluded, it would no longer have its erstwhile nuisance power vis-à-vis the US.
The Sino-US relations will remain the most confrontational. If the economic clash develops into an armed conflict around Taiwan or elsewhere, Japan will face a severe dilemma. If she goes too far in siding with the US, then it may incur a pre-emptive armed attack by China on the main islands of Japan, but if Japan does not help the US, then she will get a political reprisal from the US.
However, no matter what may happen, Trump will not withdraw the American troops from Japan. The bases in Japan are invaluable bridgeheads for the US armed forces in East Asia, which provide Trump with an important underpinning for his “deals” with China. On top of that these bases were garnered through the sacrifice of American soldiers during the Pacific War (by one estimate as many as 160 thousand troops perished(*2)), and the bases are supported by hefty subsidies in the form of cost sharing by the Japanese government (about 1.7 billion dollars annually(*3)).
As Russia ceases to be regarded as a serious threat, NATO will lose its meaning. However, Europe, with Germany and France as her core, will continue to play a major role in the world, though her power will not be on a par with the US.
Therefore, Trump’s US will be able to impose its will all over the world. If any country or company goes against US policies and interests, the US administration can simply prohibit their transaction with American banks, effectively depriving them of the possibility to conduct international trade. If a foreign company breaks US laws abroad, the US can block that company’s business in the US. Thus any company, for which the US market is vital, is forced to abide by the US laws even in third countries.
All this would mean that by 2025, when Trump will finish his second term, he may have accomplished an effective unification of the whole world with the US as the global government. Even today the US is a smaller “world” with multi-ethnic composition of its
population. It would only take broadening the basis a little; for the Americans it would not be so unnatural.
If the world becomes more peaceful and prosperous under American hegemony, it would be acceptable for many. Anyway, the world should part with the strange practice of dividing itself into many “states”, which tend to fight with one another. However, it is not to be welcomed, if the fruits of the world unification are monopolized by the people who happen to inhabit the geographical region called the United States of America. In the 18th century the British colony in North America held up the principle against its suzerain Great Britain, “No Taxation Without Representation”. By the same token it may be time to dispatch Japanese representatives (who are able to speak English) to the US Congress and to have a “global electoral district” launched for the US presidential elections.
(Akio Kawato is former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. This article first appeared in Japanese in the Japanese version of “Newsweek” on July 25th , 2018.)
(*1) https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
(*2) https://cellohoushi.blogspot.com/2013/06/blog-post_5737.html
(*3) http://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/zaibeigun/us_keihi/suii_img.html
Trump’s manner is rough and simplistic: he labels friends and foes with the volume of trade deficit as the only criterion, turns everything, even alliances, into bargaining chips for economic gains, and disengages the US from “merely costly” involvement in conflicts abroad. This approach resonates with the bulk of the masses in the US.
The Democrats doggedly criticize Trump, but so far are unable to present viable policy alternatives which are broad enough to attract wide strata of anti-Trump voters. Besides, they have not yet found a proper presidential candidate.
The conventional wisdom is that there is always a self-correcting mechanism at work for US policies that swing to the extreme. But this time Trump has ousted almost all of the staffs who would dare to dissuade him from taking reckless steps. The Republicans in Congress not only fail to restrain Trump but even ride on his bandwagon willingly for their own reelection; this is inevitable because 90% of the Republican supporters approve Trump(*1). If things proceed this way, Trump may well be reelected, ruling the US for eight years altogether. But even by the end of his first term, Trump may have dramatically changed (or overturned) the world order.
The mainstays of the post-war global framework, such as the United Nations, NATO and other alliances, IMF and WTO, will lose efficacy, although they may still linger on formally. The G7 summit, having lost serious engagement by the US, will most probably cease to exist. The ideological confrontation between democracy and autocracy will become blurred, making the world look like the late 19th century Europe, in which nations changed their partners for reasons not of ideology but convenience. In those years today’s friend easily became a foe tomorrow.
Now, ironically enough, the US-Russia relations will become the closest (or the least antagonistic) of all big power relations, because Russia is not a real threat to the US. Putin’s Russia does not possess sufficient power for pre-meditated territorial expansion, nor can it become an economic menace to the US.
It is true that Russia keeps a large number of missiles with nuclear warheads, but the US is poised to boost its defense budget by 13% in 2018 (the increment alone is equivalent to the entire annual defense budget of Russia), and its lion’s share will be spent for modernization of the nuclear arsenal and for fortification of the USA itself against nuclear attacks. As long as Russia is deterred in this way, it will not become a formidable enemy.
If the US and Russia get along in this way, Russia’s dependence on China as a quasi
-ally against the US will diminish. However, China by then will most probably lose its economic stamina, being subdued by Trump’s America, and become too weak to aspire for hegemony in the Eurasian continent. Therefore, even if China and Russia colluded, it would no longer have its erstwhile nuisance power vis-à-vis the US.
The Sino-US relations will remain the most confrontational. If the economic clash develops into an armed conflict around Taiwan or elsewhere, Japan will face a severe dilemma. If she goes too far in siding with the US, then it may incur a pre-emptive armed attack by China on the main islands of Japan, but if Japan does not help the US, then she will get a political reprisal from the US.
However, no matter what may happen, Trump will not withdraw the American troops from Japan. The bases in Japan are invaluable bridgeheads for the US armed forces in East Asia, which provide Trump with an important underpinning for his “deals” with China. On top of that these bases were garnered through the sacrifice of American soldiers during the Pacific War (by one estimate as many as 160 thousand troops perished(*2)), and the bases are supported by hefty subsidies in the form of cost sharing by the Japanese government (about 1.7 billion dollars annually(*3)).
As Russia ceases to be regarded as a serious threat, NATO will lose its meaning. However, Europe, with Germany and France as her core, will continue to play a major role in the world, though her power will not be on a par with the US.
Therefore, Trump’s US will be able to impose its will all over the world. If any country or company goes against US policies and interests, the US administration can simply prohibit their transaction with American banks, effectively depriving them of the possibility to conduct international trade. If a foreign company breaks US laws abroad, the US can block that company’s business in the US. Thus any company, for which the US market is vital, is forced to abide by the US laws even in third countries.
All this would mean that by 2025, when Trump will finish his second term, he may have accomplished an effective unification of the whole world with the US as the global government. Even today the US is a smaller “world” with multi-ethnic composition of its
population. It would only take broadening the basis a little; for the Americans it would not be so unnatural.
If the world becomes more peaceful and prosperous under American hegemony, it would be acceptable for many. Anyway, the world should part with the strange practice of dividing itself into many “states”, which tend to fight with one another. However, it is not to be welcomed, if the fruits of the world unification are monopolized by the people who happen to inhabit the geographical region called the United States of America. In the 18th century the British colony in North America held up the principle against its suzerain Great Britain, “No Taxation Without Representation”. By the same token it may be time to dispatch Japanese representatives (who are able to speak English) to the US Congress and to have a “global electoral district” launched for the US presidential elections.
(Akio Kawato is former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. This article first appeared in Japanese in the Japanese version of “Newsweek” on July 25th , 2018.)
(*1) https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
(*2) https://cellohoushi.blogspot.com/2013/06/blog-post_5737.html
(*3) http://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/zaibeigun/us_keihi/suii_img.html
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
「トランプ二期目」で違う世界
河東哲夫 / 元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼タジキスタン大使
2018年 7月 26日
ドナルド・トランプ大統領はイラン核合意からの離脱、北朝鮮との首脳会談、対中関税引き上げ、そして米ロ首脳会談と、賭けの要素の強い政策を次々と実行し始めた。貿易赤字の大きさを基準に「敵味方」を定め、同盟も何もかも経済での取引の道具とし、海外の紛争は「金がかかる」ので放り出すトランプのやり方はわかりやすく、米国大衆の大方の支持を得ている。民主党はトランプを批判するだけで、反対票を広くまとめられる政策、魅力ある大統領候補を打ち出せていない。
米国では、極端な政策には必ず抑えがきいてくると言われるが、今回はトランプを諌める立場の側近はほぼ絶滅。共和党議員は、トランプ人気に乗って（共和党支持者の90%弱はトランプを支持している<*1> ）選挙で勝つことに汲々としている。このまま行けば、トランプは二期合計8年間、大統領。いや既に1期目の終わりまでにこの世界は、全く変わり果てた姿を見せていることだろう。
戦後の世界の基本的な枠組み、つまり政治面では国際連合、安保面ではＮＡＴＯのような同盟体制、経済面ではＩＭＦ、ＷＴＯ等国際機関、これらは字面では維持されても空洞化、G7は米国の関与を得られずに多分消滅しているだろう。民主主義か専制かというイデオロギー対立は薄まる一方、19世紀後半の欧州のように「今日の友は明日の敵」、列強が提携の相手をご都合主義的に次々と替える時代となろう。
大国関係の中では皮肉なことに、米ロが最も「緊密」なものになるだろう。プーチン・ロシアに対外拡張する力はないし、米国経済の脅威にも全くならないからだ。ロシアは核ミサイルを多数保有するが、米国は2018年度の国防予算を13％増額する構えで（増額分だけで、ロシアの年間国防費全額にほぼ等しい）、その多くは核兵器の近代化、そして米本土の核防衛強化に向ける。ロシアはこうして抑止さえしておけば、手に負えない敵にはならない。
米ロが手を握れば、その分中ロ関係は薄くなる。しかし米国に経済面で圧迫された中国は成長力を大きく失い、ユーラシアでの力も弱まるだろう。従って中ロがたとえ提携しても、米国にとって大して煩わしいものではなくなる。
対立要素が最も大きいのは米中関係だろう。経済面での対立が台湾などをめぐる軍事対決にまで至ると、日本は難しい選択に迫られる。米国につき過ぎれば、中国からの先制攻撃を食らい、米国と距離を置き過ぎれば米国からしっぺ返しを食らうからだ。しかし在日米軍基地は16万とも推計される<*2> 太平洋戦争での戦死米兵の血で贖ったもの、しかも年間2000億円強<*3> もの日本の「思いやり予算」で支えられるお得なディールで、米軍が東アジアでにらみを利かし中国と「取り引き」をしていく上では不可欠のもの。トランプは残すだろう。
ロシアが脅威と見なされなくなり、NATOが形骸化するとしても、欧州は独仏を核として大きな力を維持していくだろう。しかしそれは、米国に拮抗して世界を仕切るだけの力を持つものにはなるまい。
かくしてトランプ米国は、自分の要求を貫いていく。何者も、米国の政策に反する者
は、「米国の銀行との取引を禁ず」れば、その者は世界との貿易ができなくなる。外国企業が海外にて米国法に違反すれば、米国はその企業の米国内でのビジネスを阻止できる。かくして、米国市場が死活的に重要な企業は、第３国においても米国法を遵守せざるを得なくなる。
だから、極端なことを言うならば、トランプ2期後の2025年には、米国を世界政府とする世界の統一(或いは征服)が成っているかもしれない。米国は今でも多民族の国、小型版世界なので、それを全世界に広げるだけ。米国人にとってはけっこう自然な話しだ。
それで世界が平和で住みやすいところになれば、それでもいい。世界が「国」を単位にいつまでも相争っているのはおかしなことだからだ。しかし世界国家の利益を、米国という領域に住む人間達が独り占めするのは、困る。18世紀、北米植民地は宗主国英国に対して「代表権（議会での議席）なければ課税すべからず」という標語を掲げた。米国議会に(英語のできる)議員を送り込み、米国大統領選にも「世界選挙区」を設けてもらうべき時代になったのかもしれない。
（筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼タジキスタン大使）
<*1> https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
<*2> https://cellohoushi.blogspot.com/2013/06/blog-post_5737.html
<*3> http://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/zaibeigun/us_keihi/suii_img.html
米国では、極端な政策には必ず抑えがきいてくると言われるが、今回はトランプを諌める立場の側近はほぼ絶滅。共和党議員は、トランプ人気に乗って（共和党支持者の90%弱はトランプを支持している<*1> ）選挙で勝つことに汲々としている。このまま行けば、トランプは二期合計8年間、大統領。いや既に1期目の終わりまでにこの世界は、全く変わり果てた姿を見せていることだろう。
戦後の世界の基本的な枠組み、つまり政治面では国際連合、安保面ではＮＡＴＯのような同盟体制、経済面ではＩＭＦ、ＷＴＯ等国際機関、これらは字面では維持されても空洞化、G7は米国の関与を得られずに多分消滅しているだろう。民主主義か専制かというイデオロギー対立は薄まる一方、19世紀後半の欧州のように「今日の友は明日の敵」、列強が提携の相手をご都合主義的に次々と替える時代となろう。
大国関係の中では皮肉なことに、米ロが最も「緊密」なものになるだろう。プーチン・ロシアに対外拡張する力はないし、米国経済の脅威にも全くならないからだ。ロシアは核ミサイルを多数保有するが、米国は2018年度の国防予算を13％増額する構えで（増額分だけで、ロシアの年間国防費全額にほぼ等しい）、その多くは核兵器の近代化、そして米本土の核防衛強化に向ける。ロシアはこうして抑止さえしておけば、手に負えない敵にはならない。
米ロが手を握れば、その分中ロ関係は薄くなる。しかし米国に経済面で圧迫された中国は成長力を大きく失い、ユーラシアでの力も弱まるだろう。従って中ロがたとえ提携しても、米国にとって大して煩わしいものではなくなる。
対立要素が最も大きいのは米中関係だろう。経済面での対立が台湾などをめぐる軍事対決にまで至ると、日本は難しい選択に迫られる。米国につき過ぎれば、中国からの先制攻撃を食らい、米国と距離を置き過ぎれば米国からしっぺ返しを食らうからだ。しかし在日米軍基地は16万とも推計される<*2> 太平洋戦争での戦死米兵の血で贖ったもの、しかも年間2000億円強<*3> もの日本の「思いやり予算」で支えられるお得なディールで、米軍が東アジアでにらみを利かし中国と「取り引き」をしていく上では不可欠のもの。トランプは残すだろう。
ロシアが脅威と見なされなくなり、NATOが形骸化するとしても、欧州は独仏を核として大きな力を維持していくだろう。しかしそれは、米国に拮抗して世界を仕切るだけの力を持つものにはなるまい。
かくしてトランプ米国は、自分の要求を貫いていく。何者も、米国の政策に反する者
は、「米国の銀行との取引を禁ず」れば、その者は世界との貿易ができなくなる。外国企業が海外にて米国法に違反すれば、米国はその企業の米国内でのビジネスを阻止できる。かくして、米国市場が死活的に重要な企業は、第３国においても米国法を遵守せざるを得なくなる。
だから、極端なことを言うならば、トランプ2期後の2025年には、米国を世界政府とする世界の統一(或いは征服)が成っているかもしれない。米国は今でも多民族の国、小型版世界なので、それを全世界に広げるだけ。米国人にとってはけっこう自然な話しだ。
それで世界が平和で住みやすいところになれば、それでもいい。世界が「国」を単位にいつまでも相争っているのはおかしなことだからだ。しかし世界国家の利益を、米国という領域に住む人間達が独り占めするのは、困る。18世紀、北米植民地は宗主国英国に対して「代表権（議会での議席）なければ課税すべからず」という標語を掲げた。米国議会に(英語のできる)議員を送り込み、米国大統領選にも「世界選挙区」を設けてもらうべき時代になったのかもしれない。
（筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン大使兼タジキスタン大使）
<*1> https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
<*2> https://cellohoushi.blogspot.com/2013/06/blog-post_5737.html
<*3> http://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/zaibeigun/us_keihi/suii_img.html
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟