U.S. Politics after the Mid-Term Election
WATANABE Yasushi / Professor, Keio University
December 25, 2018
The U.S. mid-term election ended largely as expected, with the Republicans maintaining the majority in the Senate and the Democrats regaining control of the House. The Senate race was fought primarily in those states where conservatives were dominant. In that sense, one could say that the Democrats fought a good battle.
Though the loss of the control of the House was damaging for President Trump, the defeat of the President’s party in the House had become a semi-normal pattern. Even if politics becomes stalemated because of distorted Congress with the Republican controlled Senate and the Democratic controlled House, President Trump can blame and attack the Democrats, thus rousing his rock-solid supporters toward his re-election in 2020.
The addition of the Republican Senate seats is a historic achievement. Trump strengthened his grip on the Senate through the virtually elimination of those Senators who were critical of him and the election of a number of “mini-Trump” Senators who are loyal to him.
Trump has used the tactic of always creating “enemies”, i.e. Democrats, Republican Party leaders and the media, and continuing to rouse his rock-solid supporters with white workers and conservative Christians (Evangelicals) at the core. The Republican Party has been surreptitiously turned into a party that no longer advocates free trade, fiscal balance, national unity or international order.
On the other hand, Trump has succeeded in containing the grievances within the Republican Party by championing policies favored by erstwhile Republican supporters such as big tax cuts, deregulation, defense budget increase, anti gun-control, and appointment of conservative judges to the Supreme Court. Many Republican Senators and House members who fear repulsion from the rock-solid Trump supporters keep their criticism of Trump under seal. Trump’s greatest achievement may be that he has turned the Republican Party into neither “Lincoln’s party” nor “Reagan’s party” but “Trump’s party”.
The House of Representatives has the right to debate the budge bill first, which will considerably emasculate Trump’s policies. It would be practically impossible to drastically revise or abolish “Obama Care”（the Affordable Care Act）or to build the wall along the Mexican border. The controversy on the raising of the debt ceiling will again bring about the crisis of federal government closure in March 2019. By gaining hold of the chairmanships of the Committees in the House, the Democrats will find it easier to force the disclosure of President Trump’s tax returns and to hold high government officials accountable through the use of Congressional investigative powers. Partisan conflicts will intensify, and social divide will deepen.
The President has greater discretionary powers in foreign policy and trade, making it likely for Trump to try to score points in these areas. The call for “America First” will likely become more strident. The perception that the United States is “victimized” by globalization is the ideological bond that binds President Trump and his rock-solid supporters. I would not go so far as to say that Trump is set to “destroy” the liberal international order, but would not be surprised if he announced one day that the United States would pull out of the World Trade Organization.
The biggest issue in Japan-U.S. relations is trade. The Democratic Party has traditionally been leaning towards protectionism. The Democratic senators and House members reacted negatively when Barak Obama, then President, agreed in principle with the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). There will be no letting up of the pressure on Japan on trade. However, there is considerable dissatisfaction in Congress about the Trump administration’s high-handed approach to U.S. allies of threatening to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum citing “threats to national security”. Depending on how the Democrats act, there could conceivably be some chance that the negotiating environment for Japan might become a little less harsh.
Japan’s diplomacy is often criticized for being subservient to the United States. But it is not as simple as all that, if you consider Japan’s support for TPP 11, the Paris Agreement on climate change, and the Iran Nuclear Deal. In the coming months, it is essential that Japan works in tandem with European countries and Australia to deter jointly the U.S. pressures for “America First”. It would be realistic for Japan to put up resolute resistance in the working level negotiations on the Trade Agreement on Goods (TAG), making small concessions only when absolutely necessary, and bide the time until the tide of U.S. politics changes.
In security, the urgent task for Japan is to strengthen its collaboration with India, Australia, Britain and France, to ensure that there be no “power vacuum” in East Asia as a result of the drawdown of U.S. engagement in the region. Our wisdom and efforts are called for to keep the United States on the side of the liberal international order. Japan has a heavy responsibility in this regard.
Yasushi Watanabe is Professor of Keio University. This is a summary of the article published in the November 14 edition of Nihon Keizai Shimbun.
Though the loss of the control of the House was damaging for President Trump, the defeat of the President’s party in the House had become a semi-normal pattern. Even if politics becomes stalemated because of distorted Congress with the Republican controlled Senate and the Democratic controlled House, President Trump can blame and attack the Democrats, thus rousing his rock-solid supporters toward his re-election in 2020.
The addition of the Republican Senate seats is a historic achievement. Trump strengthened his grip on the Senate through the virtually elimination of those Senators who were critical of him and the election of a number of “mini-Trump” Senators who are loyal to him.
Trump has used the tactic of always creating “enemies”, i.e. Democrats, Republican Party leaders and the media, and continuing to rouse his rock-solid supporters with white workers and conservative Christians (Evangelicals) at the core. The Republican Party has been surreptitiously turned into a party that no longer advocates free trade, fiscal balance, national unity or international order.
On the other hand, Trump has succeeded in containing the grievances within the Republican Party by championing policies favored by erstwhile Republican supporters such as big tax cuts, deregulation, defense budget increase, anti gun-control, and appointment of conservative judges to the Supreme Court. Many Republican Senators and House members who fear repulsion from the rock-solid Trump supporters keep their criticism of Trump under seal. Trump’s greatest achievement may be that he has turned the Republican Party into neither “Lincoln’s party” nor “Reagan’s party” but “Trump’s party”.
The House of Representatives has the right to debate the budge bill first, which will considerably emasculate Trump’s policies. It would be practically impossible to drastically revise or abolish “Obama Care”（the Affordable Care Act）or to build the wall along the Mexican border. The controversy on the raising of the debt ceiling will again bring about the crisis of federal government closure in March 2019. By gaining hold of the chairmanships of the Committees in the House, the Democrats will find it easier to force the disclosure of President Trump’s tax returns and to hold high government officials accountable through the use of Congressional investigative powers. Partisan conflicts will intensify, and social divide will deepen.
The President has greater discretionary powers in foreign policy and trade, making it likely for Trump to try to score points in these areas. The call for “America First” will likely become more strident. The perception that the United States is “victimized” by globalization is the ideological bond that binds President Trump and his rock-solid supporters. I would not go so far as to say that Trump is set to “destroy” the liberal international order, but would not be surprised if he announced one day that the United States would pull out of the World Trade Organization.
The biggest issue in Japan-U.S. relations is trade. The Democratic Party has traditionally been leaning towards protectionism. The Democratic senators and House members reacted negatively when Barak Obama, then President, agreed in principle with the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). There will be no letting up of the pressure on Japan on trade. However, there is considerable dissatisfaction in Congress about the Trump administration’s high-handed approach to U.S. allies of threatening to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum citing “threats to national security”. Depending on how the Democrats act, there could conceivably be some chance that the negotiating environment for Japan might become a little less harsh.
Japan’s diplomacy is often criticized for being subservient to the United States. But it is not as simple as all that, if you consider Japan’s support for TPP 11, the Paris Agreement on climate change, and the Iran Nuclear Deal. In the coming months, it is essential that Japan works in tandem with European countries and Australia to deter jointly the U.S. pressures for “America First”. It would be realistic for Japan to put up resolute resistance in the working level negotiations on the Trade Agreement on Goods (TAG), making small concessions only when absolutely necessary, and bide the time until the tide of U.S. politics changes.
In security, the urgent task for Japan is to strengthen its collaboration with India, Australia, Britain and France, to ensure that there be no “power vacuum” in East Asia as a result of the drawdown of U.S. engagement in the region. Our wisdom and efforts are called for to keep the United States on the side of the liberal international order. Japan has a heavy responsibility in this regard.
Yasushi Watanabe is Professor of Keio University. This is a summary of the article published in the November 14 edition of Nihon Keizai Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
中間選挙後の米国政治
渡辺 靖 / 慶応義塾大学教授
2018年 12月 25日
米中間選挙は大方の予想通り、共和党が上院多数派を維持し、民主党が下院を奪取した。今回上院では保守優位の州での戦いが中心だった。その意味では民主党は善戦したと言える。慶応義塾大学教授
トランプ大統領としては下院を失ったのは痛手だが、大統領の党が中間選挙で敗れることは半ば常態化している。今後ねじれ議会により政治が停滞したとしても、その責任を民主党に転嫁し攻撃することで、自らの岩盤支持者を20年の再選へ向けて鼓舞することもできる。
上院で議席を積み上げた点は歴史的快挙でもある。トランプ氏に批判的なベテラン議員をほぼ一掃し、自らに忠実な「ミニ・トランプ」議員を数多く当選させたことで、トランプ氏の議会への掌握力は強まった。
トランプ氏の政策手法は絶えず「敵」（民主党、共和党指導層、メディア）を作り出し、白人労働者やキリスト教保守派（福音派）を核とする岩盤支持層を鼓舞し続ける点にある。気がつけば、共和党は自由貿易や財政均衡、民主主義、国民統合、国際秩序を語らない党になっている。
その半面、大幅減税、規制緩和、国防予算拡大、反銃規制、連邦裁への保守派判事任命など、従来の共和党支持者も喜ばせる施策も打ち出すことで、党内の不満の封じ込めに成功している。トランプ氏の岩盤支持層からの反発を恐れる共和党議員の多くは、政権批判を封印している。共和党を「リンカーンの党」でも「レーガンの党」でもなく「トランプの党」にしたことはトランプ氏の最大の成果かもしれない。
下院には予算先議権があり、相当程度トランプ氏の政策は骨抜きにされるだろう。オバマケア（医療保険制度改革）の改廃やメキシコ国境壁の建設はほぼ不可能となる。債務上限引き上げを巡り、19年3月にも政府閉鎖の危機が再来する。民主党は下院の各委員会の委員長職を確保することで、大統領の納税申告書の開示強制や、議会の調査権を駆使して政府高官の責任追及が容易になる。党派対立は激化し、社会の分断は深まるだろう。
外交・通商に関しては大統領の裁量が大きい。それゆえトランプ氏はこの分野に活路を見いだすことになろう。米国第一主義がより先鋭化される公算が大きい。米国はグローバリズムの「犠牲者」という認識はトランプ氏と岩盤支持層をつなぐ世界観でもある。トランプ氏がリベラル国際秩序の「破壊者」であるとまでは思わないが、例えばある日、トランプ氏が世界貿易機関（WTO）からの離脱を表明しても筆者は驚かない。
日米関係の最大懸案は貿易だ。民主党は伝統的に保護主義的な性格が強い。オバマ前大統領が環太平洋経済連携協定（TPP）に大枠合意した際も民主党議員は後ろ向きだった。日本への通商圧力が緩むことはないだろう。もっとも議会では「安全保障上の脅威」を理由に、同盟国に対しても鉄鋼・アルミニウムへの関税強化を迫るトランプ政権への不満も強い。民主党の出方次第では日本の交渉環境がやや緩和する可能性もある。
日本外交はしばしば対米追従と批判されるが、TPP11や気候変動に関するパリ協定やイラン核合意への支持などを見ても実態はそれほど単純でない。今後はさらに欧州やオーストラリアと連携し、米国第一主義の圧力を共同で抑止することが肝要だ。日米物品貿易協定（TAG）を巡る実務家交渉では徹底抗戦しながら、妥協するにしても小出しにしつつ、米政治の潮目が変わるのを待つのが現実的だろう。
安全保障面では米国の関与低下による「力の空白」が東アジア地域に生じないよう、インドや豪州、英国やフランスなどとの連携強化も急務だ。米国をリベラル国際秩序の側につなぎ留めておくための知恵と努力が求められている。日本の責任は重い。
（筆者は慶応大学教授。本稿は、２０１８年１１月１４日付日本経済新聞朝刊に掲載された寄稿の要約である）
トランプ大統領としては下院を失ったのは痛手だが、大統領の党が中間選挙で敗れることは半ば常態化している。今後ねじれ議会により政治が停滞したとしても、その責任を民主党に転嫁し攻撃することで、自らの岩盤支持者を20年の再選へ向けて鼓舞することもできる。
上院で議席を積み上げた点は歴史的快挙でもある。トランプ氏に批判的なベテラン議員をほぼ一掃し、自らに忠実な「ミニ・トランプ」議員を数多く当選させたことで、トランプ氏の議会への掌握力は強まった。
トランプ氏の政策手法は絶えず「敵」（民主党、共和党指導層、メディア）を作り出し、白人労働者やキリスト教保守派（福音派）を核とする岩盤支持層を鼓舞し続ける点にある。気がつけば、共和党は自由貿易や財政均衡、民主主義、国民統合、国際秩序を語らない党になっている。
その半面、大幅減税、規制緩和、国防予算拡大、反銃規制、連邦裁への保守派判事任命など、従来の共和党支持者も喜ばせる施策も打ち出すことで、党内の不満の封じ込めに成功している。トランプ氏の岩盤支持層からの反発を恐れる共和党議員の多くは、政権批判を封印している。共和党を「リンカーンの党」でも「レーガンの党」でもなく「トランプの党」にしたことはトランプ氏の最大の成果かもしれない。
下院には予算先議権があり、相当程度トランプ氏の政策は骨抜きにされるだろう。オバマケア（医療保険制度改革）の改廃やメキシコ国境壁の建設はほぼ不可能となる。債務上限引き上げを巡り、19年3月にも政府閉鎖の危機が再来する。民主党は下院の各委員会の委員長職を確保することで、大統領の納税申告書の開示強制や、議会の調査権を駆使して政府高官の責任追及が容易になる。党派対立は激化し、社会の分断は深まるだろう。
外交・通商に関しては大統領の裁量が大きい。それゆえトランプ氏はこの分野に活路を見いだすことになろう。米国第一主義がより先鋭化される公算が大きい。米国はグローバリズムの「犠牲者」という認識はトランプ氏と岩盤支持層をつなぐ世界観でもある。トランプ氏がリベラル国際秩序の「破壊者」であるとまでは思わないが、例えばある日、トランプ氏が世界貿易機関（WTO）からの離脱を表明しても筆者は驚かない。
日米関係の最大懸案は貿易だ。民主党は伝統的に保護主義的な性格が強い。オバマ前大統領が環太平洋経済連携協定（TPP）に大枠合意した際も民主党議員は後ろ向きだった。日本への通商圧力が緩むことはないだろう。もっとも議会では「安全保障上の脅威」を理由に、同盟国に対しても鉄鋼・アルミニウムへの関税強化を迫るトランプ政権への不満も強い。民主党の出方次第では日本の交渉環境がやや緩和する可能性もある。
日本外交はしばしば対米追従と批判されるが、TPP11や気候変動に関するパリ協定やイラン核合意への支持などを見ても実態はそれほど単純でない。今後はさらに欧州やオーストラリアと連携し、米国第一主義の圧力を共同で抑止することが肝要だ。日米物品貿易協定（TAG）を巡る実務家交渉では徹底抗戦しながら、妥協するにしても小出しにしつつ、米政治の潮目が変わるのを待つのが現実的だろう。
安全保障面では米国の関与低下による「力の空白」が東アジア地域に生じないよう、インドや豪州、英国やフランスなどとの連携強化も急務だ。米国をリベラル国際秩序の側につなぎ留めておくための知恵と努力が求められている。日本の責任は重い。
（筆者は慶応大学教授。本稿は、２０１８年１１月１４日付日本経済新聞朝刊に掲載された寄稿の要約である）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟