The United Kingdom muddles its way forward.
Can it redress the distortion of the market economy?
KIMURA Masato / Journalist based in UK
March 5, 2020
Departing from the European Union (EU) on 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom has entered the Transition Period which will go on till the end of this year. A fierce debate has already sparked between Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, who aims to get the Brexit over with by the end of 2020, and Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, who intends to continue restraining the competitiveness of the U.K. Should it turn out that the U.K. and the EU find it difficult to agree on a new trade agreement, they must decide in June whether to extend the transition period with the maximum extension period of 2 years. However, my guess is that a basic tariff-free agreement will be signed by the end of this year, although some details may remain pending. It is clear to all concerned that avoiding a messy “no-deal Brexit” will benefit both the U.K. and the EU.
What surprised me while covering the topic was that the EU straight away gave a green light to Boris Johnson who had constantly maintained the toughest position towards the EU. As it turned out, for all the wheeling-dealing, preventive maneuvers and twists and turns along the way, the U.K. and the EU will ended up aiming at a win-win relationship.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson grew up in Brussels where the EU is
headquartered, and graduated from Britain’s most prestigious Eton College and Oxford University. Then he returned to Brussels and built his career as the correspondent of a conservative quality newspaper. He is proficient at languages and has a remarkable socializing skill. The Prime Minister’s relationships with heads of EU member governments improved greatly compared to those under the former Prime Minister Theresa May.
As if cutting the Gordian knot, the outllandish Prime Minister Johnson pulled off some remarkable feats, which I grudgingly admit despite my past articles criticizing him. He managed to kick forward the deep rooted and complicated boarder issue with Northern Ireland, the so called “backstop”, which has deeper roots and is more complicated than the Japan-South Korea relationship where the issue of history worsened and escalated into an economic war. He did it by abandoning a part of U.K.’s sovereignty (power to control).
Had they been stuck with the sovereignty issue, the U.K. and Ireland might well have followed the same path as Japan and South Korea. However, there probably was no reporter who was not surprised to see Ireland’s Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar, known for his perpetual frown, appearing before the press with a wide smile. It was a dramatic display of politics and diplomacy as an instantaneous art.
Further, through pushing back the Brexit debate to Northern Ireland, which had been passed over while the debate took place between the U.K. and EU, Prime Minister Johnson managed to bring down the fence between the Protestant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Catholic Sinn Fein. The two parties joined hands to breathe life into the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Northern Ireland Executive that had been paralyzed for 2 yeas.
He even managed to persuade Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, the mainstay of EU, probably by hammering out the idea of establishing free-port/area within the U.K. The German auto manufacturer Volkswagen showed a success in the United States through using this framework.
Prime Minister Johnson's Conservative Party achieved its landslide victory in last year’s general election. There must have been very few who predicted this win, swinging traditional Labour voters of former coal mining townsTTh to the Conservatives whom they had traditionally loathed.
Coal miners’ unions used to have the clout to overturn governments. This time, they determined the fate of Brexit. After all, it was the settling of the account for the market-oriented policies pursued under former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s “New Labour” such as sweeping deregulation, EU enlargement and huge influx of immigrants.
The Johnson administration, known so far for its ad-hoc tightrope walking, has no clear blueprint for the post-Brexit era. However, there would seem to be little
chance of his re-election as Prime Minister if he failed to resolve the North-South economic disparity, the urban-rural gap, and the elite/non-elite gap that split the United Kingdom.
From the short-term macro economics point of view, remaining in EU may have been the correct choice. However, from a longer-run, far-sighted perspective for the nation, Brexit cannot simply be dismissed as misguided. As the U.K. muddles its way one step backward and two steps forward, it retains the magnetism to attract human resources and money from around the world. In my view, it has a fair chance of success.
Masato Kimura is a journalist based in the United Kingdom.
What surprised me while covering the topic was that the EU straight away gave a green light to Boris Johnson who had constantly maintained the toughest position towards the EU. As it turned out, for all the wheeling-dealing, preventive maneuvers and twists and turns along the way, the U.K. and the EU will ended up aiming at a win-win relationship.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson grew up in Brussels where the EU is
headquartered, and graduated from Britain’s most prestigious Eton College and Oxford University. Then he returned to Brussels and built his career as the correspondent of a conservative quality newspaper. He is proficient at languages and has a remarkable socializing skill. The Prime Minister’s relationships with heads of EU member governments improved greatly compared to those under the former Prime Minister Theresa May.
As if cutting the Gordian knot, the outllandish Prime Minister Johnson pulled off some remarkable feats, which I grudgingly admit despite my past articles criticizing him. He managed to kick forward the deep rooted and complicated boarder issue with Northern Ireland, the so called “backstop”, which has deeper roots and is more complicated than the Japan-South Korea relationship where the issue of history worsened and escalated into an economic war. He did it by abandoning a part of U.K.’s sovereignty (power to control).
Had they been stuck with the sovereignty issue, the U.K. and Ireland might well have followed the same path as Japan and South Korea. However, there probably was no reporter who was not surprised to see Ireland’s Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar, known for his perpetual frown, appearing before the press with a wide smile. It was a dramatic display of politics and diplomacy as an instantaneous art.
Further, through pushing back the Brexit debate to Northern Ireland, which had been passed over while the debate took place between the U.K. and EU, Prime Minister Johnson managed to bring down the fence between the Protestant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Catholic Sinn Fein. The two parties joined hands to breathe life into the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Northern Ireland Executive that had been paralyzed for 2 yeas.
He even managed to persuade Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, the mainstay of EU, probably by hammering out the idea of establishing free-port/area within the U.K. The German auto manufacturer Volkswagen showed a success in the United States through using this framework.
Prime Minister Johnson's Conservative Party achieved its landslide victory in last year’s general election. There must have been very few who predicted this win, swinging traditional Labour voters of former coal mining townsTTh to the Conservatives whom they had traditionally loathed.
Coal miners’ unions used to have the clout to overturn governments. This time, they determined the fate of Brexit. After all, it was the settling of the account for the market-oriented policies pursued under former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s “New Labour” such as sweeping deregulation, EU enlargement and huge influx of immigrants.
The Johnson administration, known so far for its ad-hoc tightrope walking, has no clear blueprint for the post-Brexit era. However, there would seem to be little
chance of his re-election as Prime Minister if he failed to resolve the North-South economic disparity, the urban-rural gap, and the elite/non-elite gap that split the United Kingdom.
From the short-term macro economics point of view, remaining in EU may have been the correct choice. However, from a longer-run, far-sighted perspective for the nation, Brexit cannot simply be dismissed as misguided. As the U.K. muddles its way one step backward and two steps forward, it retains the magnetism to attract human resources and money from around the world. In my view, it has a fair chance of success.
Masato Kimura is a journalist based in the United Kingdom.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
一歩後退二歩前進に挑む英国 市場主義の歪みを修正できるか
木村 正人 / ジャーナリスト
2020年 3月 5日
英国が１月31日に欧州連合（ＥＵ）から離脱し、今年年末までを期限に移行期間に入った。2020年末の完全離脱を目指すボリス・ジョンソン英首相と、離脱後も英国の競争力を縛ろうとするEUのウルズラ・フォンデアライエン欧州委員長はすでに激しい火花を散らしている。英・EU双方が新たな通商協定を結ぶのが難しい場合、6月に最大2年間、移行期間を延長するかどうかを判断しなければならない。しかし細部の詰めは残るとしても、年末までにはベーシックな無関税協定を結ぶことになると筆者はみる。無秩序な「合意なき離脱」を避けるのが英・EU双方の利益になるのは言うまでもない。
取材で予想外だったのはEUに対して最も強硬な意見を吐き続けたジョンソン首相に対してEUが真っ先にゴーサインを出したことだ。だから途中の駆け引きや牽制、紆余曲折はあったとしても英・EUは最終的にウィンウィンの関係を目指すことになる。
EUの本拠地があるブリュッセルで育ち、英名門イートン校、オックスフォード大学を卒業、再びブリュッセルで英保守系高級紙の特派員を経験したジョンソン首相は語学が堪能で、社交上手。EU加盟国首脳との関係もメイ前英首相に比べて随分、改善した。
破天荒なジョンソン首相がこれまで快刀乱麻を地で行く活躍を見せたことは、彼を批判する記事を書いてきた筆者も認めざるを得ない。歴史問題がこじれて経済戦争に発展した日韓関係よりも複雑で根が深い北アイルランド問題、「バックストップ（安全策）」と呼ばれるアイルランド国境問題を、主権の一部（規制する権限）を放棄することでジョンソン首相は一気に動かした。
主権問題に囚われていたら英・アイルランドは日韓と同じ轍を踏んでいただろう。これまでしかめっ面をしていたアイルランドのレオ・バラッカー首相が満面の笑顔でジョンソン首相と並んで報道陣の前に現れたのに驚かなかった記者はいまい。政治も外交も一瞬の芸術だ。
英・EUが頭越しに進めてきた議論をジョンソン首相が北アイルランドに押し返したことで、プロテスタント系地域政党・民主統一党（DUP）とカトリック系のシン・フェインが手を取り合い、2年間もマヒしていた自治議会と自治政府を機能させ始めた。
EUの大黒柱のメルケル独首相を説得できたのも、自動車メーカーのサプライチェーンを守るため英国国内に保税港を大胆に規制緩和した自由港・地区を設けるアイデアを打ち出したからだろう。この枠組みを使って独自動車メーカー、フォルクスワーゲンは米国で成功を収めている。
ジョンソン首相率いる英保守党は昨年12月の総選挙で地滑り的な大勝利を収めた。旧炭鉱街の労働党支持者が死ぬほど嫌っていた保守党に雪崩を打って投票すると予想した人がどれほどいたのだろう。
炭鉱労組はかつて政権をひっくり返すほどの力を誇った。そして今回、英国のEU離脱を決定付けた。結局はブレア元首相の「ニューレイバー」時代に進められた大胆な規制緩和、EU拡大と移民の大量流入といった市場主義の清算だったわけである。
即興の綱渡りを続けてきたジョンソン政権にEU離脱後の明確な青写真があるわけではない。しかし英国国内を分断する経済の南北格差、都市と地方の格差、エリートとノンエリートの断絶を埋めなければジョンソン首相に再選はない。
短期的なマクロ経済ではEU残留が正解だったとしても、国家百年の計で見た場合、EU離脱を間違った判断と切り捨てることはできない。一歩後退二歩前進に挑む英国には世界の人材とマネーを吸い寄せる磁力がある。勝算は十分にあると筆者は考える。
筆者は在英ジャーナリスト
取材で予想外だったのはEUに対して最も強硬な意見を吐き続けたジョンソン首相に対してEUが真っ先にゴーサインを出したことだ。だから途中の駆け引きや牽制、紆余曲折はあったとしても英・EUは最終的にウィンウィンの関係を目指すことになる。
EUの本拠地があるブリュッセルで育ち、英名門イートン校、オックスフォード大学を卒業、再びブリュッセルで英保守系高級紙の特派員を経験したジョンソン首相は語学が堪能で、社交上手。EU加盟国首脳との関係もメイ前英首相に比べて随分、改善した。
破天荒なジョンソン首相がこれまで快刀乱麻を地で行く活躍を見せたことは、彼を批判する記事を書いてきた筆者も認めざるを得ない。歴史問題がこじれて経済戦争に発展した日韓関係よりも複雑で根が深い北アイルランド問題、「バックストップ（安全策）」と呼ばれるアイルランド国境問題を、主権の一部（規制する権限）を放棄することでジョンソン首相は一気に動かした。
主権問題に囚われていたら英・アイルランドは日韓と同じ轍を踏んでいただろう。これまでしかめっ面をしていたアイルランドのレオ・バラッカー首相が満面の笑顔でジョンソン首相と並んで報道陣の前に現れたのに驚かなかった記者はいまい。政治も外交も一瞬の芸術だ。
英・EUが頭越しに進めてきた議論をジョンソン首相が北アイルランドに押し返したことで、プロテスタント系地域政党・民主統一党（DUP）とカトリック系のシン・フェインが手を取り合い、2年間もマヒしていた自治議会と自治政府を機能させ始めた。
EUの大黒柱のメルケル独首相を説得できたのも、自動車メーカーのサプライチェーンを守るため英国国内に保税港を大胆に規制緩和した自由港・地区を設けるアイデアを打ち出したからだろう。この枠組みを使って独自動車メーカー、フォルクスワーゲンは米国で成功を収めている。
ジョンソン首相率いる英保守党は昨年12月の総選挙で地滑り的な大勝利を収めた。旧炭鉱街の労働党支持者が死ぬほど嫌っていた保守党に雪崩を打って投票すると予想した人がどれほどいたのだろう。
炭鉱労組はかつて政権をひっくり返すほどの力を誇った。そして今回、英国のEU離脱を決定付けた。結局はブレア元首相の「ニューレイバー」時代に進められた大胆な規制緩和、EU拡大と移民の大量流入といった市場主義の清算だったわけである。
即興の綱渡りを続けてきたジョンソン政権にEU離脱後の明確な青写真があるわけではない。しかし英国国内を分断する経済の南北格差、都市と地方の格差、エリートとノンエリートの断絶を埋めなければジョンソン首相に再選はない。
短期的なマクロ経済ではEU残留が正解だったとしても、国家百年の計で見た場合、EU離脱を間違った判断と切り捨てることはできない。一歩後退二歩前進に挑む英国には世界の人材とマネーを吸い寄せる磁力がある。勝算は十分にあると筆者は考える。
筆者は在英ジャーナリスト
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟