The novel coronavirus and North Korea
Shoji Nishioka / Journalist
April 14, 2020
As the novel coronavirus rages across the globe, China's neighbor North Korea continues to claim that it has “no cases of infection”. First of all, because its virus detection capability is lacking, North Korea struggles to grasp the state of the epidemic. Also, since their supreme leader Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the Workers' Party in Korea, is spearheading the campaign to prevent infection, officials who fear reprisal may report “no confirmed cases” in spite of infections. The UN sanctions have stagnated the flow of people and goods to and from North Korea. The country's “voluntary isolation” to prevent infection, combined with the sanctions, results in a “double lock-down”.
Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, the First Vice Department Directer of WPK Central Committee, released a statement on March 22 revealing that U.S. President Trump had sent a letter to Chairman Kim saying he was willing to cooperate in preventing the spread of the coronavirus.
When faced with hard-line actions by other countries against North Korea, it has adamantly responded with even severer reactions. Because of this history, North Korea has difficulty publicly seeking assistance from other countries. However, North Korea's positive acceptance of Mr. Trump's letter and its stance of not refusing aid offered by the US encourages “active offers of help from outside the country”.
In regards to the novel coronavirus, late last year, Chinese authorities reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) that “pneumonia of unknown cause was spreading in Wuhan”. The first fatalities were confirmed in China on January 12th of this year. Regarding the beginning of North Korea's response, North Korean officials said in an interview with the Choson Shinbo (an official newspaper for General Association of Korean Residents in Japan) that “people arriving via China have been monitored in isolation facilities since January 13th”.
Chinese authorities effectively locked-down Wuhan on the 23rd of the same month. However, on the 25th, the North Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs invited the diplomatic corps in North Korea to an annual banquet, and Chairman Kim himself attended a Lunar New Year commemorative performance with more than 1200 spectators. Evidently, crisis awareness was not high in North Korea at that time.
However, the level of seriousness increased soon after. The Rodong Shinmun, which is the party newspaper, reported on the 29th that “preventing the spread of infection is a serious political issue affecting the survival of the nation”, and the government media extensively reported on the quarantine authorities’ efforts and the full-scale production of masks. At an important party meeting held later that month, Chairman Kim vented his frustration and ordered “the complete blockage of all routes and gaps.”
Even as of late March, North Korea has repeatedly emphasized that there have been “no confirmed cases”. A Japanese public security official who specializes in North Korea gives the following analysis. “Since North Korea lacks medicines, the only way to prevent contagion is to stop its entry into the country. They should have closed the border in December, but they put it off until January. This is obviously too late, and thus the detection of infected people would come as no surprise. Right now, protecting Pyongyang from the spread of infection is their imperative task.”
If the virus spreads, the impact on the citizens will be deadly. If this happens, there is a good possibility that it will spread to the military. North Korean solders live in poor conditions. Due to chronic food shortages, the virus could spread almost instantaneously after even one person was infected.
The North Korean economy is in a difficult state. The North Korea-US dialogue is stagnated, and the prospect of lifting the United Nations sanctions against North Korea is uncertain. Based on the assumption of prolonged sanctions, at the end of last year, Chairman Kim set a policy of “head-on breakthrough” consisting of a “frontal breakthrough to foil the enemies’ sanctions and blockade by dint of self-reliance”. However, to accomplish this, they need to increase their dependence on China.
Stopping the interchange with China means hindering the procurement of necessities such as oil and other important materials. The price of goods that depend on imports from China will increase. The means to secure foreign currency will be lost and foreign currency will be depleted. Many people making their living from border smuggling will also lose their livelihood. The extent of the double closure's impact on North Korea is unclear. Given the risk that they may intensify cyber attacks to gain foreign currency, it will be indispensable to collect intelligence and engage in surveillance.
Shoji Nishioka is former Beijing Bureau Chief of the Mainichi Shimbun.
Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, the First Vice Department Directer of WPK Central Committee, released a statement on March 22 revealing that U.S. President Trump had sent a letter to Chairman Kim saying he was willing to cooperate in preventing the spread of the coronavirus.
When faced with hard-line actions by other countries against North Korea, it has adamantly responded with even severer reactions. Because of this history, North Korea has difficulty publicly seeking assistance from other countries. However, North Korea's positive acceptance of Mr. Trump's letter and its stance of not refusing aid offered by the US encourages “active offers of help from outside the country”.
In regards to the novel coronavirus, late last year, Chinese authorities reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) that “pneumonia of unknown cause was spreading in Wuhan”. The first fatalities were confirmed in China on January 12th of this year. Regarding the beginning of North Korea's response, North Korean officials said in an interview with the Choson Shinbo (an official newspaper for General Association of Korean Residents in Japan) that “people arriving via China have been monitored in isolation facilities since January 13th”.
Chinese authorities effectively locked-down Wuhan on the 23rd of the same month. However, on the 25th, the North Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs invited the diplomatic corps in North Korea to an annual banquet, and Chairman Kim himself attended a Lunar New Year commemorative performance with more than 1200 spectators. Evidently, crisis awareness was not high in North Korea at that time.
However, the level of seriousness increased soon after. The Rodong Shinmun, which is the party newspaper, reported on the 29th that “preventing the spread of infection is a serious political issue affecting the survival of the nation”, and the government media extensively reported on the quarantine authorities’ efforts and the full-scale production of masks. At an important party meeting held later that month, Chairman Kim vented his frustration and ordered “the complete blockage of all routes and gaps.”
Even as of late March, North Korea has repeatedly emphasized that there have been “no confirmed cases”. A Japanese public security official who specializes in North Korea gives the following analysis. “Since North Korea lacks medicines, the only way to prevent contagion is to stop its entry into the country. They should have closed the border in December, but they put it off until January. This is obviously too late, and thus the detection of infected people would come as no surprise. Right now, protecting Pyongyang from the spread of infection is their imperative task.”
If the virus spreads, the impact on the citizens will be deadly. If this happens, there is a good possibility that it will spread to the military. North Korean solders live in poor conditions. Due to chronic food shortages, the virus could spread almost instantaneously after even one person was infected.
The North Korean economy is in a difficult state. The North Korea-US dialogue is stagnated, and the prospect of lifting the United Nations sanctions against North Korea is uncertain. Based on the assumption of prolonged sanctions, at the end of last year, Chairman Kim set a policy of “head-on breakthrough” consisting of a “frontal breakthrough to foil the enemies’ sanctions and blockade by dint of self-reliance”. However, to accomplish this, they need to increase their dependence on China.
Stopping the interchange with China means hindering the procurement of necessities such as oil and other important materials. The price of goods that depend on imports from China will increase. The means to secure foreign currency will be lost and foreign currency will be depleted. Many people making their living from border smuggling will also lose their livelihood. The extent of the double closure's impact on North Korea is unclear. Given the risk that they may intensify cyber attacks to gain foreign currency, it will be indispensable to collect intelligence and engage in surveillance.
Shoji Nishioka is former Beijing Bureau Chief of the Mainichi Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
新型コロナウイルスと北朝鮮
西岡 省二 / ジャーナリスト
2020年 4月 14日
世界中で新型コロナウイルスが猛威を振るうなか、中国に隣接する北朝鮮が「感染者なし」と主張し続けている。北朝鮮ではそもそもウイルス検査態勢が不十分なため感染状況の掌握は困難だ。また最高指導者の金正恩朝鮮労働党委員長が先頭に立って感染防止を掲げているため、仮に感染が確認されても現場は処分を恐れて「なかったこと」にする可能性もある。北朝鮮は国連制裁で人と物の行き来が滞る。それに加えて感染防止のため国を“自主封鎖”しているため、「二重の閉鎖」を受けた形になっている。
金委員長の実妹、金与正党第１副部長が３月22日に発表した談話では、トランプ米大統領が金委員長に親書を寄せ、その中で感染拡大防止に向けて協力する意向があることを表明した。
北朝鮮外交は、相手が強硬措置を取れば、自国は「超強硬措置」を取るという路線を堅持する。このため諸外国に対して公に支援を求める立場は取りにくい。このため、北朝鮮がトランプ氏の親書を好意的に受け止め、米国から支援を申し出るならば拒否しないという姿勢を示すことで、「外からの積極的な申し出」を促す形となった。
新型コロナウイルスについて、中国当局が世界保健機関（ＷＨＯ）に「武漢で原因不明の肺炎が広がっている」と報告したのは昨年末。今年１月12日には中国で初の死者が確認された。北朝鮮の対応が始まった時期について、北朝鮮当局者は朝鮮新報（朝鮮総連機関紙）の取材に「１月13日から中国経由で入国した人を隔離施設で監視している」と答えている。
中国当局は同23日に武漢市を事実上封鎖した。だが北朝鮮はこの日、外務省が恒例の北朝鮮駐在外交団を招いた宴会を催し、25日には金委員長本人も１２００人以上の観客の中で旧正月記念公演を観覧している。つまり、このころ北朝鮮の危機意識は高くなかったということだ。
だが、その後、本気度が高まり、党機関紙の労働新聞は29日、「拡大防止は国家存亡にかかわる重大な政治的問題」と打ち上げ、官製メディアは防疫当局の動きやマスク本格生産などの取り組みを大々的に報道した。同月下旬に開かれた党重要会議では、金委員長は焦燥感をあらわにして「すべての通路と隙間の完全封鎖」を指示した。
北朝鮮は３月下旬の時点でも「患者は発生していない」と繰り返し強調している。北朝鮮を専門とする日本の公安関係者は「北朝鮮には薬が不足しているので封じ込めしか方法はない。12月中に遮断すべきだったのに１月にずれこんだ。これは明らかに手遅れで、感染者が出ても不思議ではない。今は平壌死守が至上命題」と分析する。
仮にウイルスが拡大していれば、住民らに致命的な影響が出る。そうなれば軍に波及する可能性も高い。北朝鮮の軍人は劣悪な環境で共同生活する。慢性的な食糧不足に見舞われているため、感染者が出れば、一気に広まる可能性もある。
北朝鮮経済はただでさえも厳しい状況に置かれている。米朝対話が滞り、北朝鮮に対する国連制裁が解かれるめどは立っていない。金委員長は昨年末、制裁の長期化を前提に「制裁そのものを正面から突破し、無力化していく」という「正面突破戦」の方針を打ち立てた。ただ、これを実践するには中国の依存度を高める必要がある。
その中国との間の往来が塞がれるということは、石油などの必要物資や重要資材の調達に支障が出る。中国からの輸入に依存していた品目は値上がりする。外貨確保のための窓口が閉ざされ、外貨が枯渇する。国境密貿易で生計を立ててきた数多くの住民もその手段を失うことになる。北朝鮮が二重の閉鎖によってどれほどのインパクトを受けるか見通せない。外貨を得るためのサイバー攻撃を激化させる恐れもあり、情報収集と監視が不可欠となるだろう。
筆者は元毎日新聞北京特派員
金委員長の実妹、金与正党第１副部長が３月22日に発表した談話では、トランプ米大統領が金委員長に親書を寄せ、その中で感染拡大防止に向けて協力する意向があることを表明した。
北朝鮮外交は、相手が強硬措置を取れば、自国は「超強硬措置」を取るという路線を堅持する。このため諸外国に対して公に支援を求める立場は取りにくい。このため、北朝鮮がトランプ氏の親書を好意的に受け止め、米国から支援を申し出るならば拒否しないという姿勢を示すことで、「外からの積極的な申し出」を促す形となった。
新型コロナウイルスについて、中国当局が世界保健機関（ＷＨＯ）に「武漢で原因不明の肺炎が広がっている」と報告したのは昨年末。今年１月12日には中国で初の死者が確認された。北朝鮮の対応が始まった時期について、北朝鮮当局者は朝鮮新報（朝鮮総連機関紙）の取材に「１月13日から中国経由で入国した人を隔離施設で監視している」と答えている。
中国当局は同23日に武漢市を事実上封鎖した。だが北朝鮮はこの日、外務省が恒例の北朝鮮駐在外交団を招いた宴会を催し、25日には金委員長本人も１２００人以上の観客の中で旧正月記念公演を観覧している。つまり、このころ北朝鮮の危機意識は高くなかったということだ。
だが、その後、本気度が高まり、党機関紙の労働新聞は29日、「拡大防止は国家存亡にかかわる重大な政治的問題」と打ち上げ、官製メディアは防疫当局の動きやマスク本格生産などの取り組みを大々的に報道した。同月下旬に開かれた党重要会議では、金委員長は焦燥感をあらわにして「すべての通路と隙間の完全封鎖」を指示した。
北朝鮮は３月下旬の時点でも「患者は発生していない」と繰り返し強調している。北朝鮮を専門とする日本の公安関係者は「北朝鮮には薬が不足しているので封じ込めしか方法はない。12月中に遮断すべきだったのに１月にずれこんだ。これは明らかに手遅れで、感染者が出ても不思議ではない。今は平壌死守が至上命題」と分析する。
仮にウイルスが拡大していれば、住民らに致命的な影響が出る。そうなれば軍に波及する可能性も高い。北朝鮮の軍人は劣悪な環境で共同生活する。慢性的な食糧不足に見舞われているため、感染者が出れば、一気に広まる可能性もある。
北朝鮮経済はただでさえも厳しい状況に置かれている。米朝対話が滞り、北朝鮮に対する国連制裁が解かれるめどは立っていない。金委員長は昨年末、制裁の長期化を前提に「制裁そのものを正面から突破し、無力化していく」という「正面突破戦」の方針を打ち立てた。ただ、これを実践するには中国の依存度を高める必要がある。
その中国との間の往来が塞がれるということは、石油などの必要物資や重要資材の調達に支障が出る。中国からの輸入に依存していた品目は値上がりする。外貨確保のための窓口が閉ざされ、外貨が枯渇する。国境密貿易で生計を立ててきた数多くの住民もその手段を失うことになる。北朝鮮が二重の閉鎖によってどれほどのインパクトを受けるか見通せない。外貨を得るためのサイバー攻撃を激化させる恐れもあり、情報収集と監視が不可欠となるだろう。
筆者は元毎日新聞北京特派員
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟