What does it mean for Japan to be “caught between the U.S. and China"?
Akio KAWATO / Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Newsweek Japan Columnist
June 9, 2020
As the U.S.-China tensions have been further aggravated by the coronavirus pandemic, the mood in Japan is to see the U.S. being at fault for its apparent insistence on maintaining its hegemony in competition with China. However, if you watch the totalitarian bent of China’s People's Congress, you will understand the need to restrain China. In addition, China's strength is overrated both by itself and others. If further restricted from acquiring advanced technology, China will suffer a serious handicap because of its out-dated semiconductor production technology. Way back in my career, I was once in charge of “COCOM” (The Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls), which was the international arrangement to restrict the transfer of advanced technology to the Soviet Union, and have a realistic feel for the effects that such restriction of technology transfer would have.
Nevertheless, Japan remains in a delicate position between the United States and China. This is because U.S. forces in the Far East are becoming increasingly vulnerable to attacks from China. In the event of a U.S.-China contingency, the U.S. military bases in Japan and Guam will most likely be destroyed by massive missile attacks from China. To avoid destruction by Chinese missiles, U.S. aircraft carriers will most likely stay out of the Far Eastern waters. This scenario was mentioned in the book, "The Kill Chain" by Christian Brose, a military expert, and most of the recent simulations show that the U.S. military is inferior in power in the region. To offset this imbalance, it would seem necessary to deploy a large number of medium-range missiles in Japan, Guam, and on U.S. nuclear submarines so as to enable preemptive strikes on Chinese bases in the event of a contingency. However, there would remain the possibility of China making preemptive and retaliatory strikes on the U.S. military bases in Japan.
On the other hand, should the U.S. move to join hands with China and agree to “do as they please”, Japan would be left in the lurch, as powerless as the proverbial fish on the cutting board.
If we look at the European Union, we notice a very important event. On May 18th, Chancellor Merkel and President Macron agreed in principle to issue a single EU bond to create a 500 billion euro post-Corona European Recovery Fund. This would allow the EU member countries, despite their disparate financial conditions, to issue a single EU bond with the economic power of Germany as collateral. Thus they would be able to increase their debt on far more favorable conditions than issuing bonds of their own. This is a hidden strengthening of the EU integration, and is in effect, a Germanic buy-out and integration of the Latin regions. However, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries may oppose the agreement.
The reason why this is interesting is that the influential EU (in essence, Germany), but not the U.S., China or Russia, with its commitment to democracy and the market economy, will gain power. As the U.S. is blatantly pursuing its own national interests and no longer actively advocating democracy, and the rift between the U.S. and Europe widens, it is particularly significant in providing a framework for "new non-aligned" alliances of medium sized developed countries that Japan could join. Incidentally, the combined GDP of small and medium sized developed democratic countries is about $24 trillion, which slightly exceeds that of U.S.
Of course, EU countries are diverse and not easy to rein in. They may treat us Japanese, who have a simpler way of thinking, with tact and may, in fact, end up taking advantage of us. Moreover, we probably cannot put too much hope on the diplomatic prowess of the current Abe and following administrations.
Still, as a start, why not consider holding a Zoom summit with the leaders of such countries as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, France, Benelux, and the Nordic countries?
Akio Kawato is a former ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and Newsweek Japan Columnist.
Nevertheless, Japan remains in a delicate position between the United States and China. This is because U.S. forces in the Far East are becoming increasingly vulnerable to attacks from China. In the event of a U.S.-China contingency, the U.S. military bases in Japan and Guam will most likely be destroyed by massive missile attacks from China. To avoid destruction by Chinese missiles, U.S. aircraft carriers will most likely stay out of the Far Eastern waters. This scenario was mentioned in the book, "The Kill Chain" by Christian Brose, a military expert, and most of the recent simulations show that the U.S. military is inferior in power in the region. To offset this imbalance, it would seem necessary to deploy a large number of medium-range missiles in Japan, Guam, and on U.S. nuclear submarines so as to enable preemptive strikes on Chinese bases in the event of a contingency. However, there would remain the possibility of China making preemptive and retaliatory strikes on the U.S. military bases in Japan.
On the other hand, should the U.S. move to join hands with China and agree to “do as they please”, Japan would be left in the lurch, as powerless as the proverbial fish on the cutting board.
If we look at the European Union, we notice a very important event. On May 18th, Chancellor Merkel and President Macron agreed in principle to issue a single EU bond to create a 500 billion euro post-Corona European Recovery Fund. This would allow the EU member countries, despite their disparate financial conditions, to issue a single EU bond with the economic power of Germany as collateral. Thus they would be able to increase their debt on far more favorable conditions than issuing bonds of their own. This is a hidden strengthening of the EU integration, and is in effect, a Germanic buy-out and integration of the Latin regions. However, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries may oppose the agreement.
The reason why this is interesting is that the influential EU (in essence, Germany), but not the U.S., China or Russia, with its commitment to democracy and the market economy, will gain power. As the U.S. is blatantly pursuing its own national interests and no longer actively advocating democracy, and the rift between the U.S. and Europe widens, it is particularly significant in providing a framework for "new non-aligned" alliances of medium sized developed countries that Japan could join. Incidentally, the combined GDP of small and medium sized developed democratic countries is about $24 trillion, which slightly exceeds that of U.S.
Of course, EU countries are diverse and not easy to rein in. They may treat us Japanese, who have a simpler way of thinking, with tact and may, in fact, end up taking advantage of us. Moreover, we probably cannot put too much hope on the diplomatic prowess of the current Abe and following administrations.
Still, as a start, why not consider holding a Zoom summit with the leaders of such countries as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, France, Benelux, and the Nordic countries?
Akio Kawato is a former ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and Newsweek Japan Columnist.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
「米中の狭間の日本」の意味
河東 哲夫 / 元在ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、日本版Newsweekコラムニスト
2020年 6月 9日
コロナで更に尖鋭化している米中対立については、日本ではあたかも自分の覇権維持にこだわる米国の方が悪い、というムードが見られますが、中国の人民代表大会の全体主義ぶりを見れば、中国を抑えることの必要性もわかるはずです。また中国の実力は自他ともに過大評価されています。これから先端技術の取得を一層制限された場合、中国は半導体生産で大きく遅れているために、深刻なハンディを背負うことになるでしょう。私は若い頃、ソ連等への先端技術移転を制限する国際合意「ココム」を担当していましたから、そこは実感でよくわかります。
にもかかわらず、日本は米国と中国の間で微妙な位置に立たされています。と言うのは、極東の米軍が中国からの攻撃に対して脆弱性を高めているからです。米中有事の場合、日本やグアムの米軍基地は中国からのミサイル大量攻撃で破壊されるでしょう。空母も中国ミサイルにやられるのを防ぐために、極東海域には入れないでしょう。そこらへんは、Christian Broseという軍事専門家の「The Kill Chain」という本に書いてあるそうで、最近の図上演習では、ほとんどの場合米軍が劣勢に陥っているそうです。これを覆すには、日本、グアム、そして米原潜に中距離ミサイルを大量に配備し、有事には中国の基地を先制攻撃する体制を整えておくことですが、在日米軍基地が先制・報復攻撃を食らう可能性は残ります。
逆に、米国が中国と手を握り、「よろしくやっていく」合意をすると、日本は中国のまな板に放り出された鯉のようになるでしょう。
そこでEUに目を移しますと、きわめて重要な出来事がありました。それは18日、メルケル首相とマクロン大統領が、EUとして単一の債券を発行して5000億ユーロのコロナ後欧州復興基金を作ることで基本合意をしたことです。これは、ドイツの経済力を担保に、EUとしての単一国債を出す、つまり財政はばらばらのEUなのに、借金だけはドイツの経済力を担保に、自分一国だけの国債を出すよりはるかに好条件で増やすことができるという、まあ隠れたEUの統合強化――別の言葉で言えば、ゲルマンによるラテン地域の買収統合――なのです。オランダや北欧諸国が反対する可能性が残っています。
これが何で面白いかと言うと、「米国でも中国でもロシアでもない」、かつ民主主義と市場経済を奉ずる大きな存在EU（と言うかドイツ）が力を増すからです。これは、米国がもはや民主主義を標榜することもなく、自国の国益ばかり露骨に追及する姿勢を露わにしている今、そして米欧の離間が進んでいる今、非常に意味のあることで、いわば中位先進国から成る「新非同盟」同盟とでも言うべき存在を、日本も加わって作る足場になり得るからです。ちなみに計算してみると、中小のいわゆる先進民主主義国を合わせたGDPは約24兆ドルで、米国のそれをやや上回ります。
もちろん、EU諸国は一筋縄でいける国々ではありません。単細胞の我々では、うまくあしらわれ、利用されるだけに終わるかもしれません。ましてや、安倍以後の政権の外交能力は、今より更に落ちるでしょう。
それでも、日本・豪州・NZ・カナダ、ドイツ・フランス・ベネルクス・北欧諸国といった国々のZOOM首脳会議でも手始めにやってみてはどうでしょう。
筆者は元在ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、日本版Newsweekコラムニスト
にもかかわらず、日本は米国と中国の間で微妙な位置に立たされています。と言うのは、極東の米軍が中国からの攻撃に対して脆弱性を高めているからです。米中有事の場合、日本やグアムの米軍基地は中国からのミサイル大量攻撃で破壊されるでしょう。空母も中国ミサイルにやられるのを防ぐために、極東海域には入れないでしょう。そこらへんは、Christian Broseという軍事専門家の「The Kill Chain」という本に書いてあるそうで、最近の図上演習では、ほとんどの場合米軍が劣勢に陥っているそうです。これを覆すには、日本、グアム、そして米原潜に中距離ミサイルを大量に配備し、有事には中国の基地を先制攻撃する体制を整えておくことですが、在日米軍基地が先制・報復攻撃を食らう可能性は残ります。
逆に、米国が中国と手を握り、「よろしくやっていく」合意をすると、日本は中国のまな板に放り出された鯉のようになるでしょう。
そこでEUに目を移しますと、きわめて重要な出来事がありました。それは18日、メルケル首相とマクロン大統領が、EUとして単一の債券を発行して5000億ユーロのコロナ後欧州復興基金を作ることで基本合意をしたことです。これは、ドイツの経済力を担保に、EUとしての単一国債を出す、つまり財政はばらばらのEUなのに、借金だけはドイツの経済力を担保に、自分一国だけの国債を出すよりはるかに好条件で増やすことができるという、まあ隠れたEUの統合強化――別の言葉で言えば、ゲルマンによるラテン地域の買収統合――なのです。オランダや北欧諸国が反対する可能性が残っています。
これが何で面白いかと言うと、「米国でも中国でもロシアでもない」、かつ民主主義と市場経済を奉ずる大きな存在EU（と言うかドイツ）が力を増すからです。これは、米国がもはや民主主義を標榜することもなく、自国の国益ばかり露骨に追及する姿勢を露わにしている今、そして米欧の離間が進んでいる今、非常に意味のあることで、いわば中位先進国から成る「新非同盟」同盟とでも言うべき存在を、日本も加わって作る足場になり得るからです。ちなみに計算してみると、中小のいわゆる先進民主主義国を合わせたGDPは約24兆ドルで、米国のそれをやや上回ります。
もちろん、EU諸国は一筋縄でいける国々ではありません。単細胞の我々では、うまくあしらわれ、利用されるだけに終わるかもしれません。ましてや、安倍以後の政権の外交能力は、今より更に落ちるでしょう。
それでも、日本・豪州・NZ・カナダ、ドイツ・フランス・ベネルクス・北欧諸国といった国々のZOOM首脳会議でも手始めにやってみてはどうでしょう。
筆者は元在ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、日本版Newsweekコラムニスト
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟