Prime Minister Suga, Beware of the Pitfalls of Diplomacy with China and South Korea
CHINO Keiko / Journalist
October 27, 2020
Japan’s new Prime Minister, Mr. Yoshihide Suga’s diplomacy started with phone diplomacy.
It began with the Australian Prime Minister Morrison, followed by US President Trump. Since he made the calls to our “friends” first, the very first summit “meetings” went successfully, making Prime Minister Suga “feel a very good response”. There have been requests from other countries as well and it seems that he is willing to take this opportunity to hold telephone meetings with the heads of states and governments around the world.
It is rather fortunate for Prime Minister Suga, who is somber and quiet, and has come into his own by working hard behind the scenes, that the circumstances under the Covid-19 crisis did not allow him to go out immediately on a tour. As the phone is less intimidating than a face-to-face meeting, his lack of experience in diplomacy can be made up for by meticulous preparation.
Without rushing to score points by saying, “we’d like you to understand Japan’s position and hope to deepen our cooperation”, it would be sufficient for a first step as long as he could make a good impression as Suga Who.
Even though he would like to succeed the Abe administration in terms of policy, he cannot inherit Mr. Abe’s personal disposition. Besides, Mr. Suga does not have the natural aura, or diplomatic flair that the former prime minister had. Both have their own characteristics and no one can blame them for their differences. Asking for the moon or just imitating would be pointless.
In any case, this writer, a born-worrier, feels relieved that it was really good for Japan that the new administration had not started suddenly with big stages such as the UN General Assembly or G7 summits.
The initial telephone meetings are like congratulatory gifts. Following the American example where it is said that a new President’s honeymoon lasts for 100 days, this celebration will be over around the end of this year or the beginning of 2021. But the term of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party will expire in September next year. There are lots of issues to be dealt with in a short span of time.
Though the Abe administration was highly regarded in its diplomacy, it left behind a host of challenging tasks, such as worsening Japan-South Korea relations, not to mention the two major issues regarding the return of Japan’s Northern Territories and the return to Japan of abductees by North Korea.
Indeed, the Japan-US Alliance has been further stepped up thanks to the close relationship between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump, and the Vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, rooted in Abe’s diplomacy, is now being fleshed out.
On the other hand, however, during the 7 years and 8 months of Abe’s tenure, the security environment in East Asia has become extremely difficult for Japan, as China has deepened its dictatorial and authoritarian tendencies and challenged the post-war international order. North Korea has proceeded to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, and South Korea has escalated its anti-Japanese sentiment. This scenario is not easy to handle no matter who becomes prime minister.
The axis of diplomacy is believed to have shifted from the Prime Minister’s Office to the Foreign Ministry. This is not a bad thing. If the Foreign Ministry supports Prime Minister Suga and works on diplomacy with utmost efforts, it will be much better than the Prime Minister’s Office-led-diplomacy, which seemed to be improvised by a hastily assembled team of a handful of brains.
Suga’s diplomacy with China and Korea gives us cause for concern; the former, because Mr. Nikai who seems to have become more heavyweight after retaining the post of Secretary General of the LDP in the Suga administration is pro-China as “those in the know, know only too well”. Also, China, desperately wanting a friend now, will surely try to cajole Mr. Suga.
It is important for Prime Minister Suga to keep Secretary General Nikai’s influence within the boundaries of the party and take control of diplomacy himself in this instance. Although it was said that Mr. Abe improved the Japan-China relations, it was in fact a very risky tightrope-walking. An old proverb teaches us that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Prime minister Suga could use his inexperience in diplomacy as his strength and adopt a new way of thinking to conduct his China policy. Without being overly concerned about the motives, ulterior or otherwise, of others, he can conduct a dignified, straight-forward diplomacy with China, based on the universal values of liberty, democracy, and rule of law that are accepted by the international community in dealing with the Senkaku Islands, Hong Kong, and Taiwan issues.
The difficulty of diplomacy with South Korea is different. The problem is that it is not only a matter of dealing with South Korea. Given the need for unity among Japan, the US, and South Korea in countering China and North Korea, the US may increase the pressure on Japan to improve its relations with South Korea. Some such signs are already visible.
The US is not ignorant of the anti-Americanism and hatred toward the US within South Korea. No matter how many times spurned by the North, South Korea does not give up on reconciliation with the North. It does not join the Indo-Pacific Vision, out of consideration for China. But Northeast Asia cannot afford to allow the US-South Korea Alliance to break up. Nor can the US allow South Korea to go over to the other side.
Japan’s basic position is that we cannot begin to improve the relations between our two countries so long as the Moon Jae-in administration continues its inaction on the issues of wartime laborers and the scrapping of the agreement on the wartime comfort women. This is close to a national consensus in Japan. Having said that, however, history indicates that there are times when we have to accept treaties however unfair they may seem. What should we do if it came to this and what can we do to prevent that from happening? Prime Minister Suga is said to have worked hard to reach the agreement on the wartime comfort when he was Chief Cabinet Secretary, and this may turn out to be his first challenge as a prime minister. If he makes a mistake and falls into a pit, he will suffer a great deal. Please be extra careful…
Chino Keiko is a freelance journalist and a Guest Columnist of the Sankei Shimbun.
It began with the Australian Prime Minister Morrison, followed by US President Trump. Since he made the calls to our “friends” first, the very first summit “meetings” went successfully, making Prime Minister Suga “feel a very good response”. There have been requests from other countries as well and it seems that he is willing to take this opportunity to hold telephone meetings with the heads of states and governments around the world.
It is rather fortunate for Prime Minister Suga, who is somber and quiet, and has come into his own by working hard behind the scenes, that the circumstances under the Covid-19 crisis did not allow him to go out immediately on a tour. As the phone is less intimidating than a face-to-face meeting, his lack of experience in diplomacy can be made up for by meticulous preparation.
Without rushing to score points by saying, “we’d like you to understand Japan’s position and hope to deepen our cooperation”, it would be sufficient for a first step as long as he could make a good impression as Suga Who.
Even though he would like to succeed the Abe administration in terms of policy, he cannot inherit Mr. Abe’s personal disposition. Besides, Mr. Suga does not have the natural aura, or diplomatic flair that the former prime minister had. Both have their own characteristics and no one can blame them for their differences. Asking for the moon or just imitating would be pointless.
In any case, this writer, a born-worrier, feels relieved that it was really good for Japan that the new administration had not started suddenly with big stages such as the UN General Assembly or G7 summits.
The initial telephone meetings are like congratulatory gifts. Following the American example where it is said that a new President’s honeymoon lasts for 100 days, this celebration will be over around the end of this year or the beginning of 2021. But the term of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party will expire in September next year. There are lots of issues to be dealt with in a short span of time.
Though the Abe administration was highly regarded in its diplomacy, it left behind a host of challenging tasks, such as worsening Japan-South Korea relations, not to mention the two major issues regarding the return of Japan’s Northern Territories and the return to Japan of abductees by North Korea.
Indeed, the Japan-US Alliance has been further stepped up thanks to the close relationship between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump, and the Vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, rooted in Abe’s diplomacy, is now being fleshed out.
On the other hand, however, during the 7 years and 8 months of Abe’s tenure, the security environment in East Asia has become extremely difficult for Japan, as China has deepened its dictatorial and authoritarian tendencies and challenged the post-war international order. North Korea has proceeded to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, and South Korea has escalated its anti-Japanese sentiment. This scenario is not easy to handle no matter who becomes prime minister.
The axis of diplomacy is believed to have shifted from the Prime Minister’s Office to the Foreign Ministry. This is not a bad thing. If the Foreign Ministry supports Prime Minister Suga and works on diplomacy with utmost efforts, it will be much better than the Prime Minister’s Office-led-diplomacy, which seemed to be improvised by a hastily assembled team of a handful of brains.
Suga’s diplomacy with China and Korea gives us cause for concern; the former, because Mr. Nikai who seems to have become more heavyweight after retaining the post of Secretary General of the LDP in the Suga administration is pro-China as “those in the know, know only too well”. Also, China, desperately wanting a friend now, will surely try to cajole Mr. Suga.
It is important for Prime Minister Suga to keep Secretary General Nikai’s influence within the boundaries of the party and take control of diplomacy himself in this instance. Although it was said that Mr. Abe improved the Japan-China relations, it was in fact a very risky tightrope-walking. An old proverb teaches us that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Prime minister Suga could use his inexperience in diplomacy as his strength and adopt a new way of thinking to conduct his China policy. Without being overly concerned about the motives, ulterior or otherwise, of others, he can conduct a dignified, straight-forward diplomacy with China, based on the universal values of liberty, democracy, and rule of law that are accepted by the international community in dealing with the Senkaku Islands, Hong Kong, and Taiwan issues.
The difficulty of diplomacy with South Korea is different. The problem is that it is not only a matter of dealing with South Korea. Given the need for unity among Japan, the US, and South Korea in countering China and North Korea, the US may increase the pressure on Japan to improve its relations with South Korea. Some such signs are already visible.
The US is not ignorant of the anti-Americanism and hatred toward the US within South Korea. No matter how many times spurned by the North, South Korea does not give up on reconciliation with the North. It does not join the Indo-Pacific Vision, out of consideration for China. But Northeast Asia cannot afford to allow the US-South Korea Alliance to break up. Nor can the US allow South Korea to go over to the other side.
Japan’s basic position is that we cannot begin to improve the relations between our two countries so long as the Moon Jae-in administration continues its inaction on the issues of wartime laborers and the scrapping of the agreement on the wartime comfort women. This is close to a national consensus in Japan. Having said that, however, history indicates that there are times when we have to accept treaties however unfair they may seem. What should we do if it came to this and what can we do to prevent that from happening? Prime Minister Suga is said to have worked hard to reach the agreement on the wartime comfort when he was Chief Cabinet Secretary, and this may turn out to be his first challenge as a prime minister. If he makes a mistake and falls into a pit, he will suffer a great deal. Please be extra careful…
Chino Keiko is a freelance journalist and a Guest Columnist of the Sankei Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
菅首相が気をつけたい対中・韓外交の落とし穴
千野 境子 / ジャーナリスト
2020年 10月 27日
菅義偉新首相の外交が電話外交からスタートした。
皮切りはモリソン豪首相、次いでトランプ米大統領と「トモダチ」から始めたこともあり、菅首相は「非常に手応えを感じている」と初の首脳「会談」を無事終えた。各国からも申し入れが来ており、これを機に各国首脳と電話会談を行っていきたいと前向きのようだ。
コロナ禍で外遊したくても状況が許さないのは、地味で無口、裏方仕事に本領を発揮して来た菅首相にとってラッキーだった。電話は対面より臆するところが少ないし、外交経験の乏しさも準備次第で補える。
「日本の立ち位置を理解してもらい、お互いに連携を深めていきたい」（菅首相）などと功を焦らずとも、Suga Whoを上手に印象付けられれば、第1歩としては十分だ。
何しろ安倍政権の継承といっても人となりまでは継承できないし、菅首相には安倍前首相が持っていた天性のオーラというか外交的な華がない。持ち味が違うのだから仕方ない。ない物ねだりも亜流も頂けない。
ともあれ心配性の筆者は、いきなり国連総会やG7などの大舞台が来なくて、日本のためにもホントに良かったと胸をなでおろしている。
最初の電話はご祝儀みたいなもの。大統領のハネムーンが100日と言われるアメリカに倣えば、お祝いが終わるのは年末から2021年初頭あたりだが、自民党総裁の任期は来年9月まで。時間は少なく課題は多い。
外交で高評価を得た安倍政権も、実際には北方領土返還と北朝鮮拉致被害者の帰国という二大事案はもとより、日韓関係の悪化など難しい課題を残したまま退陣した。
確かに日米同盟は安倍・トランプ両首脳の緊密さもあって一段と強化され、安倍外交にルーツを持つ自由で開かれたインド太平洋構想も今や中身を充実させつつある。
しかし一方でこの７年８カ月の間に、中国は独裁・権威主義傾向を深め、戦後国際秩序にも挑戦、北朝鮮は核・ミサイル開発を進め、韓国も反日主義を昂進させ、東アジアの安全保障環境は日本にとって極めて厳しくなった。誰が首相になっても容易ではない。
菅政権の下で外交の軸足は、官邸から外務省へ移ったと見られている。これは悪くない。外務省が菅首相を支え、外交の総力を挙げて働けば、俄か外交ブレーンによる官邸外交よりはずっと良い。
菅外交で危惧される点は、対中国・対韓国外交だ。前者は自民党の幹事長として菅政権でさらに重鎮度を増したらしい二階氏が、知る人ぞ知る親中派だからだ。また今、トモダチが痛切に欲しい中国も菅首相の篭絡を練っていることだろう。
菅首相はこの際、二階幹事長の存在感はあくまで党内に留め、外交の主導権は自らがしっかり握ることが肝心だ。日中関係改善を進めたとされる安倍首相だが、実は危うい綱渡りだった。生兵法は怪我の元という。菅首相は外交経験の不足をむしろ強みに発想転換し、尖閣諸島から香港、台湾問題に至るまで自由、民主主義、法の順守と言う国際社会に通用する普遍的価値を基準に、妙な忖度などせずに、堂々とした正攻法の対中外交を行うべきだ。
対韓外交の難しさは対中とはまた異なる。厄介なのは、相手は韓国だけではない。中国・北朝鮮への対抗上、日米韓の結束重視でアメリカによる改善圧力が高まることだ。そうした動きはすでにある。
アメリカは韓国内の反米や嫌米を知らないわけではない。いくら袖にされても北との融和を諦めず、中国を気遣ってインド太平洋構想に加わらない韓国。しかし北東アジアは米韓同盟を破棄してよい状況にはないし、アメリカとしては今、韓国に向こうに行ってもらっては困るのだ。
日本は文在寅政権が徴用工問題や慰安婦合意破棄問題で不作為を通す限り、関係改善は始まらないというのが基本的立場だし、それは国民的コンセンサスにも近い。しかし歴史は不平等条約でも飲まなければいけない時があることを示している。その時どうするか、その前にそうならないためにはどうすべきか。菅首相は官房長官時代に慰安婦問題で合意に尽力したと言われるが、首相として最初の試練となるかもしれない。過って落とし穴に落ちては深手を負う。くれぐれもご用心を。
筆者はフリーランスジャーナリスト、産経新聞客員論説委員
皮切りはモリソン豪首相、次いでトランプ米大統領と「トモダチ」から始めたこともあり、菅首相は「非常に手応えを感じている」と初の首脳「会談」を無事終えた。各国からも申し入れが来ており、これを機に各国首脳と電話会談を行っていきたいと前向きのようだ。
コロナ禍で外遊したくても状況が許さないのは、地味で無口、裏方仕事に本領を発揮して来た菅首相にとってラッキーだった。電話は対面より臆するところが少ないし、外交経験の乏しさも準備次第で補える。
「日本の立ち位置を理解してもらい、お互いに連携を深めていきたい」（菅首相）などと功を焦らずとも、Suga Whoを上手に印象付けられれば、第1歩としては十分だ。
何しろ安倍政権の継承といっても人となりまでは継承できないし、菅首相には安倍前首相が持っていた天性のオーラというか外交的な華がない。持ち味が違うのだから仕方ない。ない物ねだりも亜流も頂けない。
ともあれ心配性の筆者は、いきなり国連総会やG7などの大舞台が来なくて、日本のためにもホントに良かったと胸をなでおろしている。
最初の電話はご祝儀みたいなもの。大統領のハネムーンが100日と言われるアメリカに倣えば、お祝いが終わるのは年末から2021年初頭あたりだが、自民党総裁の任期は来年9月まで。時間は少なく課題は多い。
外交で高評価を得た安倍政権も、実際には北方領土返還と北朝鮮拉致被害者の帰国という二大事案はもとより、日韓関係の悪化など難しい課題を残したまま退陣した。
確かに日米同盟は安倍・トランプ両首脳の緊密さもあって一段と強化され、安倍外交にルーツを持つ自由で開かれたインド太平洋構想も今や中身を充実させつつある。
しかし一方でこの７年８カ月の間に、中国は独裁・権威主義傾向を深め、戦後国際秩序にも挑戦、北朝鮮は核・ミサイル開発を進め、韓国も反日主義を昂進させ、東アジアの安全保障環境は日本にとって極めて厳しくなった。誰が首相になっても容易ではない。
菅政権の下で外交の軸足は、官邸から外務省へ移ったと見られている。これは悪くない。外務省が菅首相を支え、外交の総力を挙げて働けば、俄か外交ブレーンによる官邸外交よりはずっと良い。
菅外交で危惧される点は、対中国・対韓国外交だ。前者は自民党の幹事長として菅政権でさらに重鎮度を増したらしい二階氏が、知る人ぞ知る親中派だからだ。また今、トモダチが痛切に欲しい中国も菅首相の篭絡を練っていることだろう。
菅首相はこの際、二階幹事長の存在感はあくまで党内に留め、外交の主導権は自らがしっかり握ることが肝心だ。日中関係改善を進めたとされる安倍首相だが、実は危うい綱渡りだった。生兵法は怪我の元という。菅首相は外交経験の不足をむしろ強みに発想転換し、尖閣諸島から香港、台湾問題に至るまで自由、民主主義、法の順守と言う国際社会に通用する普遍的価値を基準に、妙な忖度などせずに、堂々とした正攻法の対中外交を行うべきだ。
対韓外交の難しさは対中とはまた異なる。厄介なのは、相手は韓国だけではない。中国・北朝鮮への対抗上、日米韓の結束重視でアメリカによる改善圧力が高まることだ。そうした動きはすでにある。
アメリカは韓国内の反米や嫌米を知らないわけではない。いくら袖にされても北との融和を諦めず、中国を気遣ってインド太平洋構想に加わらない韓国。しかし北東アジアは米韓同盟を破棄してよい状況にはないし、アメリカとしては今、韓国に向こうに行ってもらっては困るのだ。
日本は文在寅政権が徴用工問題や慰安婦合意破棄問題で不作為を通す限り、関係改善は始まらないというのが基本的立場だし、それは国民的コンセンサスにも近い。しかし歴史は不平等条約でも飲まなければいけない時があることを示している。その時どうするか、その前にそうならないためにはどうすべきか。菅首相は官房長官時代に慰安婦問題で合意に尽力したと言われるが、首相として最初の試練となるかもしれない。過って落とし穴に落ちては深手を負う。くれぐれもご用心を。
筆者はフリーランスジャーナリスト、産経新聞客員論説委員
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟