Hollowing-out of the Japan-US Alliance: Would Japan be able to stand on its own?
Akio Kawato / Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Newsweek Japan Columnist
September 20, 2023
On August 18th in Camp David the first-ever Japan-US-South Korea summit took place. At first glance, it seems welcome that the security framework in the Western Pacific is becoming more solidified. However, in reality, there are tensions accumulating within the Japan-US security relationship.
For instance, the defense of Taiwan. In case of a crisis involving Taiwan, there have been simulations conducted by think tanks on how Japan and the US would coordinate militarily. Looking at these simulations, it becomes evident that both Japan and the US are on uncertain grounds and seem inclined to push the responsibilities onto the other. For example, the US operates under the fundamental premise of not to attacking China's bases on the mainland. As a result, Chinese naval vessels and fighter aircraft would relentlessly target and inflict significant damages on US and Taiwanese forces.
On the other hand, Japan would find it very hard to deploy its Self-Defense Forces for a Taiwan contingency, because such an act would require classifying it as a "situation endangering Japan's survival" and obtaining approval from the parliament, which would be no easy task.
In terms of the sales of weaponry to Japan, the US has become more inward-looking regarding the disclosure and transfer of technology, which casts a shadow on the future dealings with Japan. The cause of the crash of an F-35A fighter jet off the coast of Aomori Prefecture in April 2019 remains unclear to this day, largely because the US reluctance to disclose the technological data. This situation has led Japan to explore the development of a successor aircraft for its main fighter, the F-2, in collaboration with the UK and Italy.
Economically, too, the US has been increasingly adopting inward-focused policies. Beyond providing substantial subsidies in billions of dollars for infrastructure building, semiconductors, and electric vehicle production, there are occasional signs of excluding foreign companies. Subsidies for electric vehicles, for instance, would ultimately benefit only the Big Three US companies.
What would all these imply? Not that it would happen soon, but Japan would have to think about a situation when it would no longer have the United States as its guardian. In such a scenario, Japan could find itself returning to the international environment of the early Meiji period (the period starting in 1868 when Japan broke with the feudalistic Edo era). During that time, the United States was healing from the wounds of its Civil War and was relatively inactive externally, while the Qing Dynasty of China purchased modern Western warships that encroached on Nagasaki in 1886 under the pretext of repairs and the crew committed acts of wanton violence ashore. The European powers continued to exploit Japan for unfair benefits through the unequal treaties.
Admittedly, Japan has become much more powerful today. But it is again surrounded by major powers, possessing nuclear weapons this time. If Japan should misjudge the situation and mishandle its diplomacy, it could again find itself in a humiliating situation like the Triple Intervention by Germany, France and Russia of 1895, being forced to relinquish the gains from the First Sino-Japanese War.
Since the Meiji era, Japan’s efforts to master the art of effectively managing the behemoth called the nation-state have not really been successful. In the pre-WWII period, powerful figures from the Satsuma and Choshu clans used the Emperor as a figurehead and ruled the country through the bureaucrats recruited from around the nation. The military usurped this power structure and led the nation to the Pacific War. After the defeat in the war, the Emperor was stripped of his political power. The American occupation forces guided the post-war headless Japan using the service of the bureaucrats from prewar Japan. When the occupation ended in 1952, Japan's sovereignty was limited; the foundation of Japan's foreign policy, security, and financial matters was informally determined in Washington, D.C.. I would name this status as a "temporary state."
The leviathan of the nation-state is hard to manage not only for Japan, but also for established powers like the United States, the UK, France, and Germany. But Japan stands out for its lack of such Western liberalist philosophy as espoused by John Locke and John Stuart Mill at the core of its political ideology.
In the absence of anthropocentric liberal humanism, Japan's national discourse has been divided between two radical poles: pre-war jingoism and Marxist ideology of class struggle. Such has been the case in education as well. As a result, Japan lacks fundamental values that should form the backbone of the Japanese people’s identity and make it align with modern society.
Bureaucrats driving policies are overwhelmed by procedures and tiresome coordination of various forces to reach a consensus, and lack the mindset to create strategies and policies. Academics and experts, who follow international developments and design strategies, lack practical experience and are deficient in the know-how required to
drive policies.
As a result, Japan is like a headless and backbone-less entity, swimming in the world of roughnecks, marketing solely its appeal to feelings and sensibilities through manga, anime, and J-Pop.
In 1969, during the height of rapid economic growth, Japanese singer Carmen Maki sang, "Sometimes I want to go on a lone journey like a motherless child" ... The Japanese people may dream about breaking free from the dependence on the United States. In fact, whether they desire it or not, they might be compelled to embark on this journey. Can a headless and backbone-less entity endure this? Probably not.
The current situation reminds us of Japan 160 years ago. The Edo feudalistic era was in its death gasp, being forced to open up the country by the Western powers. People danced in frenzied abandon on the streets, chanting "Ee ja nai ka (anything goes)",
and Samurais endlessly and meaninglessly killed each other with sharp swords and polarized political slogans: open up the country or expel foreigners.
KAWATO Akio is a former ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and a Newsweek Japan columnist This article appeared in the August 22 edition of Newsweek Japan.
For instance, the defense of Taiwan. In case of a crisis involving Taiwan, there have been simulations conducted by think tanks on how Japan and the US would coordinate militarily. Looking at these simulations, it becomes evident that both Japan and the US are on uncertain grounds and seem inclined to push the responsibilities onto the other. For example, the US operates under the fundamental premise of not to attacking China's bases on the mainland. As a result, Chinese naval vessels and fighter aircraft would relentlessly target and inflict significant damages on US and Taiwanese forces.
On the other hand, Japan would find it very hard to deploy its Self-Defense Forces for a Taiwan contingency, because such an act would require classifying it as a "situation endangering Japan's survival" and obtaining approval from the parliament, which would be no easy task.
In terms of the sales of weaponry to Japan, the US has become more inward-looking regarding the disclosure and transfer of technology, which casts a shadow on the future dealings with Japan. The cause of the crash of an F-35A fighter jet off the coast of Aomori Prefecture in April 2019 remains unclear to this day, largely because the US reluctance to disclose the technological data. This situation has led Japan to explore the development of a successor aircraft for its main fighter, the F-2, in collaboration with the UK and Italy.
Economically, too, the US has been increasingly adopting inward-focused policies. Beyond providing substantial subsidies in billions of dollars for infrastructure building, semiconductors, and electric vehicle production, there are occasional signs of excluding foreign companies. Subsidies for electric vehicles, for instance, would ultimately benefit only the Big Three US companies.
What would all these imply? Not that it would happen soon, but Japan would have to think about a situation when it would no longer have the United States as its guardian. In such a scenario, Japan could find itself returning to the international environment of the early Meiji period (the period starting in 1868 when Japan broke with the feudalistic Edo era). During that time, the United States was healing from the wounds of its Civil War and was relatively inactive externally, while the Qing Dynasty of China purchased modern Western warships that encroached on Nagasaki in 1886 under the pretext of repairs and the crew committed acts of wanton violence ashore. The European powers continued to exploit Japan for unfair benefits through the unequal treaties.
Admittedly, Japan has become much more powerful today. But it is again surrounded by major powers, possessing nuclear weapons this time. If Japan should misjudge the situation and mishandle its diplomacy, it could again find itself in a humiliating situation like the Triple Intervention by Germany, France and Russia of 1895, being forced to relinquish the gains from the First Sino-Japanese War.
Since the Meiji era, Japan’s efforts to master the art of effectively managing the behemoth called the nation-state have not really been successful. In the pre-WWII period, powerful figures from the Satsuma and Choshu clans used the Emperor as a figurehead and ruled the country through the bureaucrats recruited from around the nation. The military usurped this power structure and led the nation to the Pacific War. After the defeat in the war, the Emperor was stripped of his political power. The American occupation forces guided the post-war headless Japan using the service of the bureaucrats from prewar Japan. When the occupation ended in 1952, Japan's sovereignty was limited; the foundation of Japan's foreign policy, security, and financial matters was informally determined in Washington, D.C.. I would name this status as a "temporary state."
The leviathan of the nation-state is hard to manage not only for Japan, but also for established powers like the United States, the UK, France, and Germany. But Japan stands out for its lack of such Western liberalist philosophy as espoused by John Locke and John Stuart Mill at the core of its political ideology.
In the absence of anthropocentric liberal humanism, Japan's national discourse has been divided between two radical poles: pre-war jingoism and Marxist ideology of class struggle. Such has been the case in education as well. As a result, Japan lacks fundamental values that should form the backbone of the Japanese people’s identity and make it align with modern society.
Bureaucrats driving policies are overwhelmed by procedures and tiresome coordination of various forces to reach a consensus, and lack the mindset to create strategies and policies. Academics and experts, who follow international developments and design strategies, lack practical experience and are deficient in the know-how required to
drive policies.
As a result, Japan is like a headless and backbone-less entity, swimming in the world of roughnecks, marketing solely its appeal to feelings and sensibilities through manga, anime, and J-Pop.
In 1969, during the height of rapid economic growth, Japanese singer Carmen Maki sang, "Sometimes I want to go on a lone journey like a motherless child" ... The Japanese people may dream about breaking free from the dependence on the United States. In fact, whether they desire it or not, they might be compelled to embark on this journey. Can a headless and backbone-less entity endure this? Probably not.
The current situation reminds us of Japan 160 years ago. The Edo feudalistic era was in its death gasp, being forced to open up the country by the Western powers. People danced in frenzied abandon on the streets, chanting "Ee ja nai ka (anything goes)",
and Samurais endlessly and meaninglessly killed each other with sharp swords and polarized political slogans: open up the country or expel foreigners.
KAWATO Akio is a former ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and a Newsweek Japan columnist This article appeared in the August 22 edition of Newsweek Japan.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
日米同盟稀薄化と日本漂流の予感
河東 哲夫 / 元駐ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、ニューズウィーク日本版コラムニスト
2023年 9月 20日
８月１８日、キャンプ・デービッドにおいて史上初の日米韓首脳会議。西太平洋における安全保障の枠組みが固まりつつあるようでそのことは歓迎されよう。だがそれとは別に、日米の安保関係ではひずみが蓄積されている。
例えば台湾防衛。台湾有事の場合、日米が軍事でどう連携するか、シンクタンクでシミュレーションが行われている。これを見ると、日米双方とも腰が定まらず、互いに責務を押し付け合っている。例えば米国は、中国本土の基地は叩かないことを大前提とする。だから中国の軍艦・戦闘機は全力で米軍・台湾軍を攻撃して多大の損害を与える。一方日本は、台湾有事で自衛隊を出動させるには、これを日本の存立危機事態と認定した上で国会の承認を得なければならず、それは容易なことではない。
兵器の面でも、米国が内向きになって技術の開示・移転に消極的になっていることが、これからの関係に影を落としている。2019年4月青森県東海上に墜落した戦闘機F－35Aの墜落原因は、今に至るも確定していない。日本は主力戦闘機F-2の後継機開発を英国、イタリアと進めようとしている。
経済でも、米国は内向きの政策を強めている。インフラ建設、半導体や電気自動車の生産に兆円単位の補助金をつけるだけでなく、外国企業を排除する姿勢が時にちらつく。電気自動車への補助金は、結局米国三社の製品にしか交付されない。
これらの意味するところは何か？今すぐそうなるわけではないが、日本は米国という後見人がいなくなる時のことを考えておかなければならない。その時日本は、明治初期の国際環境に引き戻される。当時は、米国は未だ南北戦争の傷癒えず対外的には大人しく、中国の清朝は近代的軍艦を購入して1886年には長崎に修理の名目で押し寄せると上陸して乱暴狼藉を働き、欧州列強は日本との不平等条約の利益を貪り続ける、という状況だった。
その時よりは、日本ははるかに強大化したが、周囲を大国、しかも核保有国に囲まれている状況は変わらない。情勢判断と外交を誤れば、明治28年、独露仏の三国干渉で、日清戦争での獲得物の放棄を迫られたような屈辱を嘗めさせられるだろう。
そして日本は明治以後も、国民国家という強大なマシンをうまく操縦する技を身に着けることができずにいる。戦前は天皇を神輿に、薩摩・長州両藩の有力者達が、全国から徴募した官僚を使って君臨した。軍部がこの構造を簒奪して日本を敗戦に導いたあと、天皇はその権力を奪われた。頭がなくなった日本を米占領軍が戦前からの官僚を利用して指導することとなった。１９５２年に占領が終わった時、日本の主権は制限されていた。外交・安全保障・金融政策の大元は、ワシントンで非公式に決められていたからである。筆者はこれを「仮の国家」と名づける。
国民国家という構造物は、米国、中国を初め、英仏独のような老舗でも手に負いかねている。日本はガバナンスを欠く点では欧米諸国と同じだが、その政治思想の根底にロックやミルなどの西欧リベラル思想家の哲学を欠いている点で際立っている。
人間をものごとの中心に置く、リベラルな人間主義がない中で、国論は戦前復古主義とマルクス主義的階級論に二分されてきた。それは教育でもそうで、今の日本には、現代社会に見合うような価値観、日本人の背骨となるべき基本的な価値観がないのだ。
政策を動かす官僚達は手続きを守ること、諸方に連絡して了承を取ることに忙殺されて、戦略・政策を作るマインドを欠く。国際情勢を見ていて戦略を考える専門家達は実務経験に欠けるから、政策を動かすノウハウを欠く。
こうして、日本は、アタマと背骨がなく、マンガやアニメやJ-Popなど感性だけを売り物に、荒くれ者たちの世界を泳いでいる存在となっている。
1969年、高度成長のたけなわ、日本の歌手カルメン・マキは歌った。「時には母のない子のように、ひとりで旅に出てみたい」・・・対米依存からの脱却。それは日本人の夢だ。だが望むと望まざるにかかわらず、日本は旅立ちを迫られるかもしれない。アタマと背骨のない存在は、それに耐えられるだろうか。
やけのやんぱちの「ええじゃないか」踊りの中で、開国派と尊王攘夷派が問答無用の斬り合いを繰り広げた、160年前の幕末が思い起こされる。
筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、ニューズウィーク日本版コラムニスト。
本記事は２０２３年８月２２日付ニューズウィーク日本版に掲載された。
例えば台湾防衛。台湾有事の場合、日米が軍事でどう連携するか、シンクタンクでシミュレーションが行われている。これを見ると、日米双方とも腰が定まらず、互いに責務を押し付け合っている。例えば米国は、中国本土の基地は叩かないことを大前提とする。だから中国の軍艦・戦闘機は全力で米軍・台湾軍を攻撃して多大の損害を与える。一方日本は、台湾有事で自衛隊を出動させるには、これを日本の存立危機事態と認定した上で国会の承認を得なければならず、それは容易なことではない。
兵器の面でも、米国が内向きになって技術の開示・移転に消極的になっていることが、これからの関係に影を落としている。2019年4月青森県東海上に墜落した戦闘機F－35Aの墜落原因は、今に至るも確定していない。日本は主力戦闘機F-2の後継機開発を英国、イタリアと進めようとしている。
経済でも、米国は内向きの政策を強めている。インフラ建設、半導体や電気自動車の生産に兆円単位の補助金をつけるだけでなく、外国企業を排除する姿勢が時にちらつく。電気自動車への補助金は、結局米国三社の製品にしか交付されない。
これらの意味するところは何か？今すぐそうなるわけではないが、日本は米国という後見人がいなくなる時のことを考えておかなければならない。その時日本は、明治初期の国際環境に引き戻される。当時は、米国は未だ南北戦争の傷癒えず対外的には大人しく、中国の清朝は近代的軍艦を購入して1886年には長崎に修理の名目で押し寄せると上陸して乱暴狼藉を働き、欧州列強は日本との不平等条約の利益を貪り続ける、という状況だった。
その時よりは、日本ははるかに強大化したが、周囲を大国、しかも核保有国に囲まれている状況は変わらない。情勢判断と外交を誤れば、明治28年、独露仏の三国干渉で、日清戦争での獲得物の放棄を迫られたような屈辱を嘗めさせられるだろう。
そして日本は明治以後も、国民国家という強大なマシンをうまく操縦する技を身に着けることができずにいる。戦前は天皇を神輿に、薩摩・長州両藩の有力者達が、全国から徴募した官僚を使って君臨した。軍部がこの構造を簒奪して日本を敗戦に導いたあと、天皇はその権力を奪われた。頭がなくなった日本を米占領軍が戦前からの官僚を利用して指導することとなった。１９５２年に占領が終わった時、日本の主権は制限されていた。外交・安全保障・金融政策の大元は、ワシントンで非公式に決められていたからである。筆者はこれを「仮の国家」と名づける。
国民国家という構造物は、米国、中国を初め、英仏独のような老舗でも手に負いかねている。日本はガバナンスを欠く点では欧米諸国と同じだが、その政治思想の根底にロックやミルなどの西欧リベラル思想家の哲学を欠いている点で際立っている。
人間をものごとの中心に置く、リベラルな人間主義がない中で、国論は戦前復古主義とマルクス主義的階級論に二分されてきた。それは教育でもそうで、今の日本には、現代社会に見合うような価値観、日本人の背骨となるべき基本的な価値観がないのだ。
政策を動かす官僚達は手続きを守ること、諸方に連絡して了承を取ることに忙殺されて、戦略・政策を作るマインドを欠く。国際情勢を見ていて戦略を考える専門家達は実務経験に欠けるから、政策を動かすノウハウを欠く。
こうして、日本は、アタマと背骨がなく、マンガやアニメやJ-Popなど感性だけを売り物に、荒くれ者たちの世界を泳いでいる存在となっている。
1969年、高度成長のたけなわ、日本の歌手カルメン・マキは歌った。「時には母のない子のように、ひとりで旅に出てみたい」・・・対米依存からの脱却。それは日本人の夢だ。だが望むと望まざるにかかわらず、日本は旅立ちを迫られるかもしれない。アタマと背骨のない存在は、それに耐えられるだろうか。
やけのやんぱちの「ええじゃないか」踊りの中で、開国派と尊王攘夷派が問答無用の斬り合いを繰り広げた、160年前の幕末が思い起こされる。
筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、ニューズウィーク日本版コラムニスト。
本記事は２０２３年８月２２日付ニューズウィーク日本版に掲載された。
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟