The destructive power of Trump 2.0 unveiled and Japan’s response
ISHII Masafumi / Former Ambassador of Japan to Belgium and Indonesia
February 5, 2025
The Trump administration, which is in its second term, has already caused a great deal of disruption and chaos even though it has only been in office for two weeks, and the impact should be considered substantial and long-lasting. What’s important is not to guess what he may do, which is still unclear, but work out what Japan CAN do and propose them. Below, I will try to describe the main features of the Trump posture with some ideas for Japan’s diplomacy.
Selective Involvement in International Conflicts = The Advent of the Challenge-Sharing Era
The U.S. is capable but increasingly unwilling to engage in dispute resolution. This is not just a problem for Trump, it's a problem for the entire United States. Although Trump appears to be a violent and unpredictable person, he is not actually a “military hardliner",
He is extremely cautious about U.S. military overseas combat that is not directly related to U.S. national interests, and has an inherently low sympathy with alliances.
Thus, the world will irreversibly change from the era of burden sharing, in which the United States resolved disputes and the costs were shared among allies and like-minded countries, to the era of challenge sharing, in which allies and like-minded countries are involved in the conflict resolution itself.
Otherwise, disputes will not be resolved and will continue. The key to a ceasefire in Ukraine is to prevent a re-invasion of Russia, but the U.S. does not make efforts to realize it, so it is necessary to have a mechanism in which NATO members in Europe send troops to Ukraine to monitor the ceasefire, and if Russia attacks them, NATO's joint defense will be triggered. Whether this can be achieved or not will be the first test for the success of Challenge Sharing system.
At the same time, this means that the we will move from an era in which solutions were achieved by the “rule by "force" (fear of the US) to an era of the “rule by majority” in which solutions are justified by the support of the majority of the international community. In order to do so, it is essential to engage and gain support from the influential Global South countries.
America First Principle = Alliances Are Not a Privilege
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the Senate hearing that the State Department's actions will be judged on whether it will make the United States "stronger, safer, or more prosperous." There will no longer be such a judgment as "because it is an ally". It is a criterion that evaluates relations based on whether or not they contribute to the "America First" policy through concrete actions.
Countries that do not meet this criterion, whether they are allies or not, are not of interest to the Trump administration and are abandoned. Japan is fine, but I have rarely heard Trump officials say anything about the U.S. ally, the Philippines, or other countries of Southeast Asia.
Therefore, these neighboring countries of Japan will need to be protected by Japan. One idea is to create an "Asian Quad" consisting of India, Indonesia, Japan, and Australia, and systematically draw Indonesia, which recently joined the BRICS, into our side.
In addition, considering that the Philippines' role in the event of a Taiwan contingency will be very important, the support to the Philippines is crucial. It is also a good idea to support the cooperation among the coast guards of Southeast Asian countries that the Philippines has been promoting and conduct joint exercises in the South China Sea. Another idea is to encourage ASEAN to bring the South China Sea dispute to an international arbitration tribunal.
In any case, Japan has to have the resolve and readiness to act as if "Japan were in charge as far as Southeast Asia is concerned." These actions listed above will make the United States stronger, safer, and more prosperous, therefore will also contribute to strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance.
"Wolf Diplomacy” of the US= loss of trust and friends
Trump claims the U.S. control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, and does not even rule out the use of military force to achieve it. The United States today differs from Russia only in one respect, which is that it has not actually used force.
Behind this is the "exceptionalism" which holds that a major power can create a desirable order for itself. Trump himself thinks he survived the assassination because he was chosen by God.
The reason why the world has been basically stable since World War II is that the lessons of the two world wars have led to a consensus on such basic principles as a rules-based order, the equality of sovereign states and the maintenance of territorial integrity, and the prohibition of unilateral changes by force, and the United States has maintained this order by force.
The impact of the U.S. not only stopping its efforts to maintain the order but also destroying it is very significant. The post-war order will fundamentally collapse, and the United States will irreversibly lose the good will and trust it has accumulated since the end of the WWII.
This is very serious for a US ally like Japan. It is an urgent task to engage the influential countries of the Global South to manage the era of the rule of the majority.
For example, it would be a good idea to create a group of Permanent Outreach Partners (POP) system for G7 in which, whoever may hold the G7 presidency, POP will be always invited. POP would include India, Brazil, Indonesia and the ASEAN Presidency, South Africa and the AU Presidency, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Korea and Australia. Why does Japan not start consulting with France, the G7 chair for next year, about this idea before it starts hosting the new round of G7 meetings after 50 years in 2026?
ISHII Masafumi is a former ambassador of Japan to Belgium and Indonesia
Selective Involvement in International Conflicts = The Advent of the Challenge-Sharing Era
The U.S. is capable but increasingly unwilling to engage in dispute resolution. This is not just a problem for Trump, it's a problem for the entire United States. Although Trump appears to be a violent and unpredictable person, he is not actually a “military hardliner",
He is extremely cautious about U.S. military overseas combat that is not directly related to U.S. national interests, and has an inherently low sympathy with alliances.
Thus, the world will irreversibly change from the era of burden sharing, in which the United States resolved disputes and the costs were shared among allies and like-minded countries, to the era of challenge sharing, in which allies and like-minded countries are involved in the conflict resolution itself.
Otherwise, disputes will not be resolved and will continue. The key to a ceasefire in Ukraine is to prevent a re-invasion of Russia, but the U.S. does not make efforts to realize it, so it is necessary to have a mechanism in which NATO members in Europe send troops to Ukraine to monitor the ceasefire, and if Russia attacks them, NATO's joint defense will be triggered. Whether this can be achieved or not will be the first test for the success of Challenge Sharing system.
At the same time, this means that the we will move from an era in which solutions were achieved by the “rule by "force" (fear of the US) to an era of the “rule by majority” in which solutions are justified by the support of the majority of the international community. In order to do so, it is essential to engage and gain support from the influential Global South countries.
America First Principle = Alliances Are Not a Privilege
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the Senate hearing that the State Department's actions will be judged on whether it will make the United States "stronger, safer, or more prosperous." There will no longer be such a judgment as "because it is an ally". It is a criterion that evaluates relations based on whether or not they contribute to the "America First" policy through concrete actions.
Countries that do not meet this criterion, whether they are allies or not, are not of interest to the Trump administration and are abandoned. Japan is fine, but I have rarely heard Trump officials say anything about the U.S. ally, the Philippines, or other countries of Southeast Asia.
Therefore, these neighboring countries of Japan will need to be protected by Japan. One idea is to create an "Asian Quad" consisting of India, Indonesia, Japan, and Australia, and systematically draw Indonesia, which recently joined the BRICS, into our side.
In addition, considering that the Philippines' role in the event of a Taiwan contingency will be very important, the support to the Philippines is crucial. It is also a good idea to support the cooperation among the coast guards of Southeast Asian countries that the Philippines has been promoting and conduct joint exercises in the South China Sea. Another idea is to encourage ASEAN to bring the South China Sea dispute to an international arbitration tribunal.
In any case, Japan has to have the resolve and readiness to act as if "Japan were in charge as far as Southeast Asia is concerned." These actions listed above will make the United States stronger, safer, and more prosperous, therefore will also contribute to strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance.
"Wolf Diplomacy” of the US= loss of trust and friends
Trump claims the U.S. control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, and does not even rule out the use of military force to achieve it. The United States today differs from Russia only in one respect, which is that it has not actually used force.
Behind this is the "exceptionalism" which holds that a major power can create a desirable order for itself. Trump himself thinks he survived the assassination because he was chosen by God.
The reason why the world has been basically stable since World War II is that the lessons of the two world wars have led to a consensus on such basic principles as a rules-based order, the equality of sovereign states and the maintenance of territorial integrity, and the prohibition of unilateral changes by force, and the United States has maintained this order by force.
The impact of the U.S. not only stopping its efforts to maintain the order but also destroying it is very significant. The post-war order will fundamentally collapse, and the United States will irreversibly lose the good will and trust it has accumulated since the end of the WWII.
This is very serious for a US ally like Japan. It is an urgent task to engage the influential countries of the Global South to manage the era of the rule of the majority.
For example, it would be a good idea to create a group of Permanent Outreach Partners (POP) system for G7 in which, whoever may hold the G7 presidency, POP will be always invited. POP would include India, Brazil, Indonesia and the ASEAN Presidency, South Africa and the AU Presidency, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Korea and Australia. Why does Japan not start consulting with France, the G7 chair for next year, about this idea before it starts hosting the new round of G7 meetings after 50 years in 2026?
ISHII Masafumi is a former ambassador of Japan to Belgium and Indonesia
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
遂にベールを脱いだトランプ２．０の破壊力にどう対応するか
石井 正文 / 元駐ベルギー、インドネシア大使
2025年 2月 5日
２期目のトランプ政権は、未だ発足後２週間しか経っていないのに既に大きな破壊力と混乱を齎しており、その影響は本質的で長期にわたると考えるべきだ。
国際紛争への選択的関与＝チャレンジ・シェアリング時代の到来
米国は能力的には可能なのに,紛争解決に関与する意思が減退している。これは、トランプだからというよりは、米国全体の問題だ。
また、トランプは乱暴者で予想不能に見えるが実は,「対外強硬派」では無い
彼は、米国の国益に直接関係しない米軍の海外戦闘に極めて慎重で、同盟関係に対する理解が本質的に低い。
世界は、米国が紛争を解決しコストを同盟国・同志国が分担するバーデン・シェアリングから、紛争解決自体に同盟国・同志国が関与するチャレンジ・シェアリングの時代に不可逆的に変化する。
そうでないと紛争は解決せず継続する。ウクライナ戦争停戦ではロシアの再侵攻防止が鍵となるが、米国は汗をかかないので、欧州のNATO加盟国がウクライナに停戦監視のために軍を送り、ロシアが攻撃すればNATOの共同防衛がトリガーされるといった仕組みが必要だが、この成否がチャレンジ・シェアリングの未来を占う最初のテストだろう。
同時にこれは、米国が「力」（Fear )で解決を実現していた時代から、国際社会の多数派（Majority）の支持で解決策を正当化する時代になることをも意味する。そのためには、影響力の強いグローバル・サウスの取り込みが必須になる。
米国第一主義＝同盟は特権ではない
ルビオ国務長官は公聴会で国務省の行動は米国を「より強く、安全に、より繁栄させるかどうか」で判断される、と語った。
「同盟だから」といった判断は入らない。あくまで具体的行動で米国第一主義のために貢献するかどうかで関係を評価するという判断基準だ。
同盟国であろうが無かろうがこの判断基準に当たらない国はトランプ政権の関心外となり、見捨てられる。日本は大丈夫だが、米国の同盟国比や他の東南アジアにつきトランプ関係者が発言するのを聞いたことが無い。
なので、これら日本近隣の国々は、日本が守ることが必要になる。インド・インドネシア・日本・豪州からなる「アジア版クアッド」を作り、最近BRICSに加入したインドネシアをこちら側に組織的に引き込むというのも一案だ。
また、比の支援は、台湾有事の際の役割を考えれば大変に重要だ。同国が進める東南アジア諸国の沿岸警備隊の連携を支援し南シナ海で共同訓練をするのも良い。ASEANが南シナ海問題を国際仲裁裁判に持ち込むよう働きかけるのも一案だ。
ともかく、「東南アジアは日本が仕切る」くらいの覚悟と行動が求められている。このような行動は米国をより強く、安全に、より繫栄させるので、日米同盟強化にも資する。
米国版「戦狼」外交＝信頼と友達を失う
トランプはグリーンランドやパナマ運河の米国支配を主張し実現のために軍事力使用さえ否定しない。今の米国は実際の武力行使に至っていないという１点でしかロシアと異ならない。
この背景にあるのは、大国は自分にとり望ましい秩序を作って良いという「選民思想」がある。トランプ自身、暗殺を生き延び神に選ばれたと思っている。
第二次世界大戦後の世界が曲がりなりにも安定してきたのは二度の大戦の教訓から、ルールに基づく秩序、主権国家の平等と領土の一体性維持、武力による一方的変更の禁止等基本原則にコンセンサスができ、それを米国が「力」で維持してきたからだ。
その米国が秩序維持の努力を止め秩序を破壊することの影響は大きい。戦後秩序は根本的に崩れるし米国は積み重ねてきた善行と信頼を不可逆的に失う。
これは、同盟国日本にとり大変に深刻だ。多数派の統治に対応すべくグローバル・サウス諸国の取り込みは待ったなしの課題だ。
例えば、G7を舞台として、議長国が誰でも常に招待されるアウトリーチ国（常任アウトリーチ国）制度を作るのも一案だ。それは、印、伯、尼とASEAN議長国、南アとAU議長国、サウジ、トルコ、韓、豪といった国々だ。来年の議長国仏が２０２６年に５０年を経たG７会議の新たなラウンドを始める前に、日本がこの制度創設に向け仏に根回しを始めてはどうだろうか。
筆者は元駐ベルギー、インドネシア大使
国際紛争への選択的関与＝チャレンジ・シェアリング時代の到来
米国は能力的には可能なのに,紛争解決に関与する意思が減退している。これは、トランプだからというよりは、米国全体の問題だ。
また、トランプは乱暴者で予想不能に見えるが実は,「対外強硬派」では無い
彼は、米国の国益に直接関係しない米軍の海外戦闘に極めて慎重で、同盟関係に対する理解が本質的に低い。
世界は、米国が紛争を解決しコストを同盟国・同志国が分担するバーデン・シェアリングから、紛争解決自体に同盟国・同志国が関与するチャレンジ・シェアリングの時代に不可逆的に変化する。
そうでないと紛争は解決せず継続する。ウクライナ戦争停戦ではロシアの再侵攻防止が鍵となるが、米国は汗をかかないので、欧州のNATO加盟国がウクライナに停戦監視のために軍を送り、ロシアが攻撃すればNATOの共同防衛がトリガーされるといった仕組みが必要だが、この成否がチャレンジ・シェアリングの未来を占う最初のテストだろう。
同時にこれは、米国が「力」（Fear )で解決を実現していた時代から、国際社会の多数派（Majority）の支持で解決策を正当化する時代になることをも意味する。そのためには、影響力の強いグローバル・サウスの取り込みが必須になる。
米国第一主義＝同盟は特権ではない
ルビオ国務長官は公聴会で国務省の行動は米国を「より強く、安全に、より繁栄させるかどうか」で判断される、と語った。
「同盟だから」といった判断は入らない。あくまで具体的行動で米国第一主義のために貢献するかどうかで関係を評価するという判断基準だ。
同盟国であろうが無かろうがこの判断基準に当たらない国はトランプ政権の関心外となり、見捨てられる。日本は大丈夫だが、米国の同盟国比や他の東南アジアにつきトランプ関係者が発言するのを聞いたことが無い。
なので、これら日本近隣の国々は、日本が守ることが必要になる。インド・インドネシア・日本・豪州からなる「アジア版クアッド」を作り、最近BRICSに加入したインドネシアをこちら側に組織的に引き込むというのも一案だ。
また、比の支援は、台湾有事の際の役割を考えれば大変に重要だ。同国が進める東南アジア諸国の沿岸警備隊の連携を支援し南シナ海で共同訓練をするのも良い。ASEANが南シナ海問題を国際仲裁裁判に持ち込むよう働きかけるのも一案だ。
ともかく、「東南アジアは日本が仕切る」くらいの覚悟と行動が求められている。このような行動は米国をより強く、安全に、より繫栄させるので、日米同盟強化にも資する。
米国版「戦狼」外交＝信頼と友達を失う
トランプはグリーンランドやパナマ運河の米国支配を主張し実現のために軍事力使用さえ否定しない。今の米国は実際の武力行使に至っていないという１点でしかロシアと異ならない。
この背景にあるのは、大国は自分にとり望ましい秩序を作って良いという「選民思想」がある。トランプ自身、暗殺を生き延び神に選ばれたと思っている。
第二次世界大戦後の世界が曲がりなりにも安定してきたのは二度の大戦の教訓から、ルールに基づく秩序、主権国家の平等と領土の一体性維持、武力による一方的変更の禁止等基本原則にコンセンサスができ、それを米国が「力」で維持してきたからだ。
その米国が秩序維持の努力を止め秩序を破壊することの影響は大きい。戦後秩序は根本的に崩れるし米国は積み重ねてきた善行と信頼を不可逆的に失う。
これは、同盟国日本にとり大変に深刻だ。多数派の統治に対応すべくグローバル・サウス諸国の取り込みは待ったなしの課題だ。
例えば、G7を舞台として、議長国が誰でも常に招待されるアウトリーチ国（常任アウトリーチ国）制度を作るのも一案だ。それは、印、伯、尼とASEAN議長国、南アとAU議長国、サウジ、トルコ、韓、豪といった国々だ。来年の議長国仏が２０２６年に５０年を経たG７会議の新たなラウンドを始める前に、日本がこの制度創設に向け仏に根回しを始めてはどうだろうか。
筆者は元駐ベルギー、インドネシア大使
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟