Escalating Middle Eastern Conflict
SAITO Mitsugu / Former Ambassador to Iran
July 31, 2025
On June 13, Israel suddenly launched an air strike on Iran, destroying its nuclear-related and other facilities, and assassinated several senior civilian and military officials. Since the surprise attack on Israel by Gaza-based Hamas two years ago, the conflicts involving Israel have been escalating, and Israel has done significant damage to Iranian-backed Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Yemen's Houthis. Finally, the conflict has escalated into a direct clash between Israel and Iran. Furthermore, on June the 22nd, the United States suddenly conducted an air strike on behalf of Israel at the nuclear facility in Fordw, Iran, bringing the situation to the verge of a conflict between the US and Iran, but on the 24th, President Trump suddenly announced that "Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire." The world was relieved by this announcement, and the situation seems to be calming down. However, Israel will likely attack Iran again in a few months. In other words, the current pause in fighting is just because the Israeli side needs time to replenish its depleted weapons and ammunition.
Israel's air strike on Iran was initiated because Iran's proxy forces, which had been keeping Israel away, had been significantly weakened, no longer constraining Israel. However, Israel firmly believes that Iran's nuclear development is not for peaceful purposes, but is designed to attack Israel with nuclear weapons; therefore, Israel is determined to stop Iran's nuclear development completely. Furthermore, Israel will never miss this opportunity to bring down the Islamic Revolutionary Regime itself, because Israel believes that this regime is the root of the threats to Israel. However, on the contrary, Israel's attack on June 13th may have convinced Iran of the need for nuclear deterrence against Israel and pushed it back to nuclearization.
The Israeli attacks have indeed weakened Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Regime, but the Islamic Revolutionary Regime won’t collapse as easily as Israel wishes. One can recall a precedent in neighboring Iraq. Since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, severe economic sanctions were imposed, and the U.S. military often carried out air strikes. Still, in the end, the regime collapsed only when the U.S. military conducted a large-scale ground invasion and captured the capital, Baghdad, in 2003. However, in the current situation, because Israel is more than a thousand kilometers away from Iran and President Trump promised that he would never drag the United States into a large-scale foreign war, both have a close to zero possibility of conducting a ground invasion into Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Regime will not collapse as long as it maintains control over its domestic security. As Iran's history is a history of external interference and aggression, Iranians strongly oppose external pressure, so the Israeli and the U.S. attacks likely have boosted the patriotism of Iranians and increased their support for the regime, which they had previously criticized for its theocratic rule and corruption.
The only fundamental solution to Iran's nuclear development issue is through negotiations, and President Trump has once again called on Iran to negotiate. President Trump, however, adamantly reiterates that "Iran will not be allowed to enrich uranium at all because it will lead to nuclearization." However, uranium enrichment is a right recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a sovereign state's prerogative. Iranians, who have a strong national character of "strongly opposing external pressure", consider it “unjustifiable discrimination”, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already rejected this condition. Hence, it is almost impossible for Iran to sit at the negotiating table with the US at this moment.
In this way, the conflict in the Middle East is expanding with Israel as the eye of the storm. The historical context of the persecution of the Jews for hundreds of years has a lot to do with Israel's aggressive behavior. The problem is the mentality of the Jewish people in Israel that "No one will help Jews if they are oppressed, so they must protect themselves regardless of international rules or public opinion." Israeli action may seem like excessive defense to bystanders. But the Israelis believe that they are only taking the necessary actions to protect themselves.
Moreover, as the winning streak continues, Israel is becoming more and more ambitious, and recently it seems that it is aiming to become a hegemonic state in the Middle East. However, if Israel seeks to become a hegemon in the Middle East, it will inevitably face a conflict with Turkey, which also aspires to become a regional hegemon. Turkey had been a secure state since the end of World War One, but in the last two decades, under the leadership of Erdogan, who first as Prime Minister and then as President till now, is an Islamic fundamentalist and also has the ambition of the revival of the Ottoman Empire, which collapsed at the end of World War One. Furthermore, he is behaving in a more authoritarian manner by arresting his political opponents. He is likely to reshape the Middle East under Turkish hegemony with Islamic fundamentalism. So, it is natural for Jews in Israel to be concerned about Turkey under President Erdogan, both geopolitically (rivalry for hegemony in the Middle East) and ideologically (dominance of Islamic Fundamentalism in the Middle East).
Moreover, Syria, a buffer state that has prevented Israel and Turkey from confronting each other directly, has been disrupted by the collapse of the Assad regime in December last year, raising the risk of a direct conflict between Israel and Turkey over Syria.
In the first place, the collapse of the Assad regime was initiated by Turkey. Naturally, Turkey has a strong influence on the Syrian interim government, which is under the leadership of Islamic Fundamentalists who were former members of Al-Qaeda (They say that they renounced Islamic Extremism ideology and now seek a moderate Islamic Fundamentalism.) Still, this interim government intends to reunite Syria as a Sunni Arab ruling Islamic fundamentalist country, which had disintegrated into ethnic groups and religious sects during a decades-long civil war. It is increasing pressure on ethnic minorities such as Kurds and non-Muslims, such as Druze. In response, the Israeli side, which is afraid of the emergence of an Islamic Fundamentalist state under Turkish influence in Syria, does not hesitate to intervene by force, such as providing support to the Kurds and Druze and even bombing the Syrian capital to protect them.
Japan depends on the Persian Gulf region for over 90% of its crude oil imports. Japan can only do so much, but Japan could convince President Trump to allow Iran to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under strict international supervision, so that Iran can come to the negotiating table.
Mitsugu Saito is a former Ambassador to Iran.
Israel's air strike on Iran was initiated because Iran's proxy forces, which had been keeping Israel away, had been significantly weakened, no longer constraining Israel. However, Israel firmly believes that Iran's nuclear development is not for peaceful purposes, but is designed to attack Israel with nuclear weapons; therefore, Israel is determined to stop Iran's nuclear development completely. Furthermore, Israel will never miss this opportunity to bring down the Islamic Revolutionary Regime itself, because Israel believes that this regime is the root of the threats to Israel. However, on the contrary, Israel's attack on June 13th may have convinced Iran of the need for nuclear deterrence against Israel and pushed it back to nuclearization.
The Israeli attacks have indeed weakened Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Regime, but the Islamic Revolutionary Regime won’t collapse as easily as Israel wishes. One can recall a precedent in neighboring Iraq. Since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, severe economic sanctions were imposed, and the U.S. military often carried out air strikes. Still, in the end, the regime collapsed only when the U.S. military conducted a large-scale ground invasion and captured the capital, Baghdad, in 2003. However, in the current situation, because Israel is more than a thousand kilometers away from Iran and President Trump promised that he would never drag the United States into a large-scale foreign war, both have a close to zero possibility of conducting a ground invasion into Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Regime will not collapse as long as it maintains control over its domestic security. As Iran's history is a history of external interference and aggression, Iranians strongly oppose external pressure, so the Israeli and the U.S. attacks likely have boosted the patriotism of Iranians and increased their support for the regime, which they had previously criticized for its theocratic rule and corruption.
The only fundamental solution to Iran's nuclear development issue is through negotiations, and President Trump has once again called on Iran to negotiate. President Trump, however, adamantly reiterates that "Iran will not be allowed to enrich uranium at all because it will lead to nuclearization." However, uranium enrichment is a right recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a sovereign state's prerogative. Iranians, who have a strong national character of "strongly opposing external pressure", consider it “unjustifiable discrimination”, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already rejected this condition. Hence, it is almost impossible for Iran to sit at the negotiating table with the US at this moment.
In this way, the conflict in the Middle East is expanding with Israel as the eye of the storm. The historical context of the persecution of the Jews for hundreds of years has a lot to do with Israel's aggressive behavior. The problem is the mentality of the Jewish people in Israel that "No one will help Jews if they are oppressed, so they must protect themselves regardless of international rules or public opinion." Israeli action may seem like excessive defense to bystanders. But the Israelis believe that they are only taking the necessary actions to protect themselves.
Moreover, as the winning streak continues, Israel is becoming more and more ambitious, and recently it seems that it is aiming to become a hegemonic state in the Middle East. However, if Israel seeks to become a hegemon in the Middle East, it will inevitably face a conflict with Turkey, which also aspires to become a regional hegemon. Turkey had been a secure state since the end of World War One, but in the last two decades, under the leadership of Erdogan, who first as Prime Minister and then as President till now, is an Islamic fundamentalist and also has the ambition of the revival of the Ottoman Empire, which collapsed at the end of World War One. Furthermore, he is behaving in a more authoritarian manner by arresting his political opponents. He is likely to reshape the Middle East under Turkish hegemony with Islamic fundamentalism. So, it is natural for Jews in Israel to be concerned about Turkey under President Erdogan, both geopolitically (rivalry for hegemony in the Middle East) and ideologically (dominance of Islamic Fundamentalism in the Middle East).
Moreover, Syria, a buffer state that has prevented Israel and Turkey from confronting each other directly, has been disrupted by the collapse of the Assad regime in December last year, raising the risk of a direct conflict between Israel and Turkey over Syria.
In the first place, the collapse of the Assad regime was initiated by Turkey. Naturally, Turkey has a strong influence on the Syrian interim government, which is under the leadership of Islamic Fundamentalists who were former members of Al-Qaeda (They say that they renounced Islamic Extremism ideology and now seek a moderate Islamic Fundamentalism.) Still, this interim government intends to reunite Syria as a Sunni Arab ruling Islamic fundamentalist country, which had disintegrated into ethnic groups and religious sects during a decades-long civil war. It is increasing pressure on ethnic minorities such as Kurds and non-Muslims, such as Druze. In response, the Israeli side, which is afraid of the emergence of an Islamic Fundamentalist state under Turkish influence in Syria, does not hesitate to intervene by force, such as providing support to the Kurds and Druze and even bombing the Syrian capital to protect them.
Japan depends on the Persian Gulf region for over 90% of its crude oil imports. Japan can only do so much, but Japan could convince President Trump to allow Iran to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under strict international supervision, so that Iran can come to the negotiating table.
Mitsugu Saito is a former Ambassador to Iran.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
中東紛争の拡大
斎藤 貢 / 元駐イラン大使
2025年 7月 31日
6月13日、突如、イスラエルがイランを空爆し、核関連施設等を破壊した。一昨年、ガザを拠点とするイスラム原理主義過激派のハマスによるイスラエルへの奇襲攻撃以来、中東では紛争が拡大していた。その間、イスラエルはイランが支援するハマス、レバノンのヒズボラ、イエメンのフーシー派に大きなダメージを与えたが、遂にイスラエルとイランの直接衝突にエスカレートした。さらに、6月22日、突然、フォルドゥにある核施設を米国がイスラエルに代わって空爆したが、24日にトランプ米国大統領が、「イスラエルとイランが停戦に合意した。」と発表し、急転直下、事態は収束に向かった。しかし、数ヶ月以内にイスラエルが再度イランを攻撃する可能性が非常に高いのではないか。つまり、現在、戦闘が休止しているのは、イスラエル側が消耗した武器弾薬の補充に時間が必要なためだけでは無いかと考える。
このタイミングでイスラエルがイランを空爆したのは、これまでイスラエルを牽制して来たイランの代理勢力を弱体化させ、後顧の憂いを取り除いた事が大きいと思われるが、イスラエルはイランの核開発は平和目的ではなく核武装してイスラエルを攻撃するためだと信じていて、イランの核開発を絶対に阻止すると決意している。そして、イランが弱体化しているこの機会に徹底的にイランの核開発問題の決着を付けたいと考えているのでは無いか。しかし、今回のイスラエルの攻撃は、かえってイラン側に対イスラエル核抑止の必要性を確信させ、核武装への背中を押してしまった可能性がある。
今回のイスラエルの攻撃でイランのイスラム革命体制は大きく弱体化したが、イスラム革命体制は簡単に崩壊しないと思われる。というのは、隣国イラクの前例がある。イラクは1990年のイラクのクウェート侵攻以来、厳しい経済制裁が課せられ、度々、米軍が空爆したが、結局、2003年に米軍が地上侵攻して首都バクダッドを陥落させるまで体制は崩壊しなかった。ところが、イスラエルは距離的理由から、そして、米国は政治的理由から、どちらもイランに地上侵攻する可能性はゼロに近く、イスラム革命体制は、国内の治安を押えていれば体制は崩壊しないと考えていると思われる。そして、イランの歴史は外部からの干渉、侵略の歴史であり、イラン人は外圧に対して強く反発するので、むしろ、今回の事件でイラン人の愛国心が高揚したのではないか。
イランの核開発問題を根本的に解決するためには、話し合いによるしか無く、トランプ大統領も改めてイランに交渉を呼びかけている、トランプ大統領は、「核武装に繋がるのでイランにウラン濃縮を一切認め無い、」という前提条件を付けた。しかし、ウラン濃縮は核拡散防止条約（NPT）でも認められた国家の権利なので、「外圧に強く反発する」イランは「差別」だと受け取り、既にハメネイ最高指導者が拒否したが、イラン側がこの条件を受け入れることは困難だと思われる。
こうしてイスラエルを台風の目として中東の紛争が拡大しているが、このイスラエルのアグレッシブな行動の背景には、長年迫害されたユダヤ人の歴史が大きく関わっている。問題は、「ユダヤ人が虐げられても誰も助けてくれない。だから、国際法や国際世論に構わず、自分の身は自分で守らなければならない。」という感覚をイスラエルのユダヤ人が強く持っている事だ。今回のイスラエルの一連の行動は、傍から見ればイスラエルの過剰防衛にも見えるが、イスラエル側は、自分の身を守るために必要な行動を取っているに過ぎないという認識だと思われる。
しかも、連戦連勝が続いてイスラエルもだんだん野心的になり、最近は中東地域の覇権国家を目指しているようにも見える。しかし、イスラエルが中東の覇権国家を目指せば、やはり中東の覇権国家を目指すトルコとの衝突は免れない。さらに、これまでイスラエルとトルコが直接対峙することを防いでいた緩衝国のシリアが昨年12月のアサド政権の崩壊により混乱し、シリアを舞台にイスラエルとトルコの間で衝突する危険性が高まっている。
そもそもアサド政権の崩壊はトルコが仕掛けたものでトルコはシリアの暫定政権に強い影響力があるが、この暫定政権は、人口の70％を占めるスンニー派アラブ人によるイスラム原理主義国家の樹立をめざしてクルド人等の少数民族やドゥルーズ教徒等の非イスラム教徒への圧力を強めている。これに対してイスラエル側は親トルコのイスラム原理主義国家が出来るのを阻止するためにクルド人やドゥルーズ教徒への支援を行い、シリアの首都を空爆する等、武力介入も躊躇しない。
日本は、ペルシャ湾地域に原油輸入の90％を依存している。日本が出来ることは限られるが、例えば、イランが交渉のテーブルに着けるように国際的な厳重な監督の下でイランの平和目的のウラン濃縮を認めるようトランプ大統領に働き掛けるべきではないか。
筆者は元駐イラン大使
このタイミングでイスラエルがイランを空爆したのは、これまでイスラエルを牽制して来たイランの代理勢力を弱体化させ、後顧の憂いを取り除いた事が大きいと思われるが、イスラエルはイランの核開発は平和目的ではなく核武装してイスラエルを攻撃するためだと信じていて、イランの核開発を絶対に阻止すると決意している。そして、イランが弱体化しているこの機会に徹底的にイランの核開発問題の決着を付けたいと考えているのでは無いか。しかし、今回のイスラエルの攻撃は、かえってイラン側に対イスラエル核抑止の必要性を確信させ、核武装への背中を押してしまった可能性がある。
今回のイスラエルの攻撃でイランのイスラム革命体制は大きく弱体化したが、イスラム革命体制は簡単に崩壊しないと思われる。というのは、隣国イラクの前例がある。イラクは1990年のイラクのクウェート侵攻以来、厳しい経済制裁が課せられ、度々、米軍が空爆したが、結局、2003年に米軍が地上侵攻して首都バクダッドを陥落させるまで体制は崩壊しなかった。ところが、イスラエルは距離的理由から、そして、米国は政治的理由から、どちらもイランに地上侵攻する可能性はゼロに近く、イスラム革命体制は、国内の治安を押えていれば体制は崩壊しないと考えていると思われる。そして、イランの歴史は外部からの干渉、侵略の歴史であり、イラン人は外圧に対して強く反発するので、むしろ、今回の事件でイラン人の愛国心が高揚したのではないか。
イランの核開発問題を根本的に解決するためには、話し合いによるしか無く、トランプ大統領も改めてイランに交渉を呼びかけている、トランプ大統領は、「核武装に繋がるのでイランにウラン濃縮を一切認め無い、」という前提条件を付けた。しかし、ウラン濃縮は核拡散防止条約（NPT）でも認められた国家の権利なので、「外圧に強く反発する」イランは「差別」だと受け取り、既にハメネイ最高指導者が拒否したが、イラン側がこの条件を受け入れることは困難だと思われる。
こうしてイスラエルを台風の目として中東の紛争が拡大しているが、このイスラエルのアグレッシブな行動の背景には、長年迫害されたユダヤ人の歴史が大きく関わっている。問題は、「ユダヤ人が虐げられても誰も助けてくれない。だから、国際法や国際世論に構わず、自分の身は自分で守らなければならない。」という感覚をイスラエルのユダヤ人が強く持っている事だ。今回のイスラエルの一連の行動は、傍から見ればイスラエルの過剰防衛にも見えるが、イスラエル側は、自分の身を守るために必要な行動を取っているに過ぎないという認識だと思われる。
しかも、連戦連勝が続いてイスラエルもだんだん野心的になり、最近は中東地域の覇権国家を目指しているようにも見える。しかし、イスラエルが中東の覇権国家を目指せば、やはり中東の覇権国家を目指すトルコとの衝突は免れない。さらに、これまでイスラエルとトルコが直接対峙することを防いでいた緩衝国のシリアが昨年12月のアサド政権の崩壊により混乱し、シリアを舞台にイスラエルとトルコの間で衝突する危険性が高まっている。
そもそもアサド政権の崩壊はトルコが仕掛けたものでトルコはシリアの暫定政権に強い影響力があるが、この暫定政権は、人口の70％を占めるスンニー派アラブ人によるイスラム原理主義国家の樹立をめざしてクルド人等の少数民族やドゥルーズ教徒等の非イスラム教徒への圧力を強めている。これに対してイスラエル側は親トルコのイスラム原理主義国家が出来るのを阻止するためにクルド人やドゥルーズ教徒への支援を行い、シリアの首都を空爆する等、武力介入も躊躇しない。
日本は、ペルシャ湾地域に原油輸入の90％を依存している。日本が出来ることは限られるが、例えば、イランが交渉のテーブルに着けるように国際的な厳重な監督の下でイランの平和目的のウラン濃縮を認めるようトランプ大統領に働き掛けるべきではないか。
筆者は元駐イラン大使
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟