Will Prime Minister Takaichi Surpass “Abe 2.0”?
KAWATO Akio / Former Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Newsweek Japan columnist
January 7, 2026
Prime Minister Takaichi is off to a strong start. Her remarks on a possible Taiwan contingency have been met with broad understanding in Japan, and despite the passage of a large supplementary budget, financial markets have remained stable. Because of arthritis she has scaled back evening engagements, but her aides are covering for her effectively. Her approval rating has stayed in the 70-percent range since she took office. There is no one within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party who is currently in a position to challenge her. With a bare majority in the Diet (with the support of two other parties), next year’s budget will pass. The question is whether Prime Minister Takaichi can simply become “Abe 2.0,” revive Japan, and conduct a diplomacy that places Japan “at the center of the world.”
But today’s world—and the macroeconomic environment—are very different from those of the 2010s when the late Prime Minister Abe was active. If she assumes nothing has changed and charges ahead, she risks, as with her recent Taiwan comments, saying things that do not need to be said and doing things that do not need to be done—and stumbling as a result.
What has changed? To begin with, in Trump’s second term, U.S.–China and U.S.–Russia relations are starting to move away from a long-standing “confrontational” mindset. Trump has come to recognize that the old approach of unilaterally pressing China—such as through tariff hikes—to force concessions no longer works. On Taiwan as well, while he seeks to deter China’s moves, the likelihood of U.S. military intervention has become extremely low. China, for its part, also understands the enormous risks of trying to bring Taiwan under control by force, and is increasingly expecting Taiwan itself to move closer to the mainland over time, without China resorting to the use of force.
Europe continues to view Russia as a threat, but Trump is aiming to strike a deal with Moscow, and major European powers such as Germany and France are likely to follow suite eventually.
North Korea, if it reaches a peace agreement with the United States and begins improving ties with neighboring countries, will have little incentive to mount aggression.
In other words, for Japan, the postwar era—eighty years in which it has stood on the front line of confrontation with Russia, China, and North Korea while still bearing the legacy of the American occupation—is entering a period of transformation. Japan should avoid creating unnecessary friction with China and, instead of relying solely on the U.S.–Japan alliance, work more closely with South Korea, ASEAN members, Pacific island nations, Bangladesh, and other mid-sized Asian countries to help build an Asia in which borders and boundaries are not changed by force. This requires a shift in mindset and renewal of personnel. It is also the role of Japan and other mid-sized powers to articulate some kind of guiding philosophy to prevent the world from being driven solely by the power and money of great powers. The tone should not be self-righteous; it should be expressed in plain language—something like “protecting ordinary people’s safety and livelihoods.”
Now to the economy. The Abenomics that Prime Minister Takaichi admires rested on three pillars; among them, monetary and fiscal easing has already gone far enough. Pushing it further will only accelerate yen depreciation and inflation. The focus now should be on the remaining thpillar—growth strategy. China promotes its industries mainly through state-owned enterprises backed by government subsidies, but Japan should take a different course: supporting the dynamism of the private sector. Nothing good comes from bureaucrats who lack on-the-ground business experience intervening excessively in corporate activities.
The Takaichi administration also has the revision of the constitutional revision in view, but that is only possible if it secures a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet. For now, priority should be given to what can be done within the current constitutional framework. One example would be correcting the flaws of the present single-member-district electoral system and curbing the spread of shallow populism.
Akio Kawato is a former ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and a Newsweek Japan columnist.
But today’s world—and the macroeconomic environment—are very different from those of the 2010s when the late Prime Minister Abe was active. If she assumes nothing has changed and charges ahead, she risks, as with her recent Taiwan comments, saying things that do not need to be said and doing things that do not need to be done—and stumbling as a result.
What has changed? To begin with, in Trump’s second term, U.S.–China and U.S.–Russia relations are starting to move away from a long-standing “confrontational” mindset. Trump has come to recognize that the old approach of unilaterally pressing China—such as through tariff hikes—to force concessions no longer works. On Taiwan as well, while he seeks to deter China’s moves, the likelihood of U.S. military intervention has become extremely low. China, for its part, also understands the enormous risks of trying to bring Taiwan under control by force, and is increasingly expecting Taiwan itself to move closer to the mainland over time, without China resorting to the use of force.
Europe continues to view Russia as a threat, but Trump is aiming to strike a deal with Moscow, and major European powers such as Germany and France are likely to follow suite eventually.
North Korea, if it reaches a peace agreement with the United States and begins improving ties with neighboring countries, will have little incentive to mount aggression.
In other words, for Japan, the postwar era—eighty years in which it has stood on the front line of confrontation with Russia, China, and North Korea while still bearing the legacy of the American occupation—is entering a period of transformation. Japan should avoid creating unnecessary friction with China and, instead of relying solely on the U.S.–Japan alliance, work more closely with South Korea, ASEAN members, Pacific island nations, Bangladesh, and other mid-sized Asian countries to help build an Asia in which borders and boundaries are not changed by force. This requires a shift in mindset and renewal of personnel. It is also the role of Japan and other mid-sized powers to articulate some kind of guiding philosophy to prevent the world from being driven solely by the power and money of great powers. The tone should not be self-righteous; it should be expressed in plain language—something like “protecting ordinary people’s safety and livelihoods.”
Now to the economy. The Abenomics that Prime Minister Takaichi admires rested on three pillars; among them, monetary and fiscal easing has already gone far enough. Pushing it further will only accelerate yen depreciation and inflation. The focus now should be on the remaining thpillar—growth strategy. China promotes its industries mainly through state-owned enterprises backed by government subsidies, but Japan should take a different course: supporting the dynamism of the private sector. Nothing good comes from bureaucrats who lack on-the-ground business experience intervening excessively in corporate activities.
The Takaichi administration also has the revision of the constitutional revision in view, but that is only possible if it secures a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet. For now, priority should be given to what can be done within the current constitutional framework. One example would be correcting the flaws of the present single-member-district electoral system and curbing the spread of shallow populism.
Akio Kawato is a former ambassador to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and a Newsweek Japan columnist.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
”高市総理は「安倍２．０」を超えるか
河東 哲夫 / 元駐ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、ニューズウィーク日本版コラムニスト
2026年 1月 7日
高市総理は好いスタートを切っている。台湾有事についての発言も日本では大方の理解を得ているし、大型の補正予算でも金融市場は崩れていない。関節炎で夜の付き合いも控えているが、そこは補佐役たちが支えてくれる。支持率は就任以来、70％台をキープ。自民党内で総理の座を今狙える者はいない。衆議院では多数議席を確保したから、来年度の予算は通せる。高市総理はこのまま「安倍２．０」になって、日本を盛り返し、「世界の真ん中での外交」を展開できるのだろうか？
安倍総理の活躍した2010年代と今は、世界情勢、そしてマクロ経済共々大きく違う。そこを同じだと思って突っ走ると、この前の台湾有事発言と同じく、言わなくてもいいこと、やらなくてもいいことをして、失敗することになりかねない。
何が変わったかと言うとまず世界では、トランプ第二期で、米中、米ロ関係が長年の「対立」思考から脱皮しつつある。トランプは中国に関税引き上げなど一方的な圧力をかけて譲歩を迫るやり方がもうできないことを認識したし、台湾についても中国の出方を抑止はしても、軍事行動に出る可能性はほぼなくなった。中国も台湾を武力で制圧せずとも－失敗した場合のリスクが大きいー、台湾自身が中国に歩み寄ってくることを期待している。
欧州はロシアを脅威と見なしているが、トランプはロシアと手を打つことを目指しているし、ドイツ、フランス等、欧州の大国もいずれこれになびくだろう。
北朝鮮は、米国との平和合意ができ、周辺諸国との関係も進み始めれば、攻めてくることもないだろう。
つまり日本にとってみれば、米軍による日本占領の後を引きずって、ロシア、中国、北朝鮮との対立の矢面に立ってきた戦後80年は、衣替えの時代になったのである。日本は中国などとことさら対立することは避け、日米同盟だけでなく、韓国、ASEAN諸国、大洋州諸国、バングラデシュ等、アジアの中位の国と提携して、「武力による国境・境界の変更が行われないアジア」の実現をめざすべき時代になった。意識の転換、人材の刷新が必要だ。そして大国のパワーやカネだけで世界が動かされるのを防ぐために、何らかの哲学を提示するのも、日本や他の中位国の仕事だ。肩ひじ張らない、「フツウの人々の安全と生活を守る」とか、わかりやすい言葉での哲学。
そして経済。高市総理の私淑するアベノミクス、三本の柱のうち金融・財政の緩和はもう十分。これ以上やれば円安、インフレが激しくなる。残る成長戦略に力を入れるべきだ。中国は国営企業が中心で、政府が補助金をつけて産業を育成しているが、日本は民間の活力を補助する方向で進むべきだ。ビジネスの現場を知らない役人が企業に過度に介入して、いいことは起きない。
高市政権は憲法改正も視野に入れるが、これは衆参両院で3分の2以上の議席を確保して初めてできる。今は、憲法の枠内でできることをやろう。まず現行の小選挙区制の問題点を是正して、安易なミーハー・ポピュリズムの横行を退治するとかだ。
筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、ニューズウィーク日本版コラムニスト
安倍総理の活躍した2010年代と今は、世界情勢、そしてマクロ経済共々大きく違う。そこを同じだと思って突っ走ると、この前の台湾有事発言と同じく、言わなくてもいいこと、やらなくてもいいことをして、失敗することになりかねない。
何が変わったかと言うとまず世界では、トランプ第二期で、米中、米ロ関係が長年の「対立」思考から脱皮しつつある。トランプは中国に関税引き上げなど一方的な圧力をかけて譲歩を迫るやり方がもうできないことを認識したし、台湾についても中国の出方を抑止はしても、軍事行動に出る可能性はほぼなくなった。中国も台湾を武力で制圧せずとも－失敗した場合のリスクが大きいー、台湾自身が中国に歩み寄ってくることを期待している。
欧州はロシアを脅威と見なしているが、トランプはロシアと手を打つことを目指しているし、ドイツ、フランス等、欧州の大国もいずれこれになびくだろう。
北朝鮮は、米国との平和合意ができ、周辺諸国との関係も進み始めれば、攻めてくることもないだろう。
つまり日本にとってみれば、米軍による日本占領の後を引きずって、ロシア、中国、北朝鮮との対立の矢面に立ってきた戦後80年は、衣替えの時代になったのである。日本は中国などとことさら対立することは避け、日米同盟だけでなく、韓国、ASEAN諸国、大洋州諸国、バングラデシュ等、アジアの中位の国と提携して、「武力による国境・境界の変更が行われないアジア」の実現をめざすべき時代になった。意識の転換、人材の刷新が必要だ。そして大国のパワーやカネだけで世界が動かされるのを防ぐために、何らかの哲学を提示するのも、日本や他の中位国の仕事だ。肩ひじ張らない、「フツウの人々の安全と生活を守る」とか、わかりやすい言葉での哲学。
そして経済。高市総理の私淑するアベノミクス、三本の柱のうち金融・財政の緩和はもう十分。これ以上やれば円安、インフレが激しくなる。残る成長戦略に力を入れるべきだ。中国は国営企業が中心で、政府が補助金をつけて産業を育成しているが、日本は民間の活力を補助する方向で進むべきだ。ビジネスの現場を知らない役人が企業に過度に介入して、いいことは起きない。
高市政権は憲法改正も視野に入れるが、これは衆参両院で3分の2以上の議席を確保して初めてできる。今は、憲法の枠内でできることをやろう。まず現行の小選挙区制の問題点を是正して、安易なミーハー・ポピュリズムの横行を退治するとかだ。
筆者は元駐ウズベキスタン・タジキスタン大使、ニューズウィーク日本版コラムニスト
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟