US role key in Japan-China tensions after Takaichi's Taiwan comments
KOKUBUN Ryosei / Chairman of the Asian Research Council
January 26, 2026
"What kind of means will be used to bring Taiwan completely under the control of China, the Beijing government? If it involves the use of battleships and the use of force, I think this is a case that could be a survival-threatening situation (for Japan) no matter how you think about it," Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told the House of Representatives Budget Committee on Nov. 7, igniting current tensions between Tokyo and Beijing.
It can be said that the prime minister only made a hypothetical statement about the "survival-threatening situation" -- a Japanese legal term describing a national security development that involves an attack on a close ally and poses an existential threat to Japan. In her remarks, Takaichi also said that "the government will make a judgment based on the individual and specific circumstances of the actual situation, incorporating all information." A few days later at the same Diet committee, in reference to her Nov. 7 statement, the premier even spoke of her "regret" over voicing assumptions on a specific case, and that she would "refrain from making clear statements" on this issue in the future.
When Takaichi made this backtracking, there was room for the Chinese side to settle the matter. But the situation took another turn in the meanwhile as the Chinese Consul General in Osaka got flamed for writing on his X (Twitter) that "I have no choice but to cut off that dirty head that has rushed in, without a moment's hesitation."
The Taiwan issue is the biggest priority of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and it is not surprising that he issued a strong order to have Takaichi withdraw her remarks. As a result, some Chinese travelers and students stopped coming to Japan, and Beijing reimposed a ban on importing Japan's seafood that had just been lifted. Cultural projects such as concerts got canceled one after another, followed by a Chinese military jet beaming its radar on Air Self-Defense Force aircraft during an exercise.
Sudden change after summit meeting
In 2010, when Chinese fishing boats collided with Japan Coast Guard vessels near the Senkaku Islands -- claimed by both Tokyo and Beijing -- Japan endured a bitter fallout, including anti-Japanese demonstrations, a suspension of rare earth exports by China, and boycotts of Japanese products. In 2017, South Korea experienced tourism restrictions and boycotts by China due to Beijing's opposition to the deployment of terminal high-altitude defense (THAAD) missiles by U.S. forces stationed in the country. Norway, Canada, Australia, and other countries also had trade restrictions and boycotts with China.
Former U.S. President Joe Biden repeatedly stated that the U.S. military would get involved in the event of a "Taiwan contingency," but China did not go that far with the United States. Or it couldn't. Considering the deep history of Chinese thought, I wonder where the culture of profound virtue has gone.
Japan's first female prime minister, Takaichi assumed office on Oct. 21. Just five days later on Oct. 26 she attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) related summit held in Malaysia. After returning to Japan, on Oct. 28, she sat down with visiting U.S. President Donald Trump, settling the difficult tariff issue and building a personal relationship of trust with Trump.
Then from Oct. 30, she visited Gyeongju, South Korea, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. She first met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to confirm the continuation of future-oriented shuttle diplomacy, without getting bogged down by controversial bilateral historical issues. Takaichi's popularity in South Korea increased as she showed respect with a bow to the Republic of Korea national flag at the summit and mentioned at the inaugural press conference her love of ROK-made cosmetics and seaweed.
Takaichi's meeting with Taiwan representative foreshadowed
The next day, on Oct. 31, a meeting with Chinese President Xi was also realized. The Chinese side was cautious about Prime Minister Takaichi's reputation as a conservative, but the atmosphere of the meeting itself was good. The two leaders reached a series of agreements, including the promotion of strategic mutually beneficial relations, the reaffirmation of the resumption of imports of Japan's seafood products imposed after the 2011 nuclear disaster, and the need for communication between defense authorities.
However, the next day, the Japanese premier met with Taiwanese representative Lin Xinyi, who was participating in APEC, and the Chinese side protested. This seems to have been a foreshadowing of the Chinese side's fierce criticism of "Takaichi remarks" on Nov. 7.
Takaichi's diplomatic debut was a success, and her approval rating in public opinion polls rose. The remarks about a "survival-threatening situation" were made shortly afterward, but a Mainichi Shimbun poll found that 50% of respondents said they did not see a problem with them.
Meanwhile, the first U.S.-China summit in six years was held in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, ahead of APEC. At this meeting, the U.S. side suspended the escalating race to raise tariffs for one year and lowered the tariff on fentanyl, an addictive synthetic painkiller that affects many Americans, from 20% to 10%. The Chinese side suspended export restrictions on rare earths to the United States for one year and agreed to purchase large quantities of U.S. soybeans. It is said that the two leaders did not touch on the Taiwan issue.
On Nov. 24, after Takaichi's remarks, there was a telephone discussion between Trump and Xi. The Chinese side seems to have mentioned the Taiwan issue and U.S.-China cooperation in the war of resistance against Japan, but Mr. Trump only replied that he "understands the importance" of the Taiwan issue. The telephone consultation also confirmed the mutual state visits between the leaders of the United States and China, which are scheduled for next year.
Immediately after that, Trump also called Takaichi. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Trump told the premier that she "should not provoke China," but the Japanese government denied the report.
Based on the above reproduction from press reports of the series of events before and after the "Takaichi remarks," what can we say about that process?
It is difficult for Prime Minister Takaichi to retract her remarks. Above all, she enjoys high popular support, and if her comments are withdrawn, the prime minister's leadership will be weakened at once. If the Chinese side is also acting on President Xi's instructions, it cannot change its course. The pressure on Japan will continue, but what and how far will it go? Will China be able to step into economic sanctions on Japan again while its own economy is on the decline?
In his famous book "The Shanghai Era," which looked back on that era before World War II, Shigeharu Matsumoto, who was active as a journalist in Shanghai, positioned the core of Japan-U.S. relations at that time as the China issue and left a maxim that "Japan-U.S. relations are Japan-China relations."
If we update that ma
xim for our times, it may be that "Japan-U.S. relations depend on U.S.-China relations." However, the current U.S.-China dialogue is premised on mutual distrust and is only a temporary compromise between the two major powers that cannot escape from economic interdependence.
China emphasizes that the United States and China fought together in the war of resistance against Japan, but that was more than 80 years ago, and China at that time was not the People's Republic of China, but the Republic of China.
Unchanging close alliance
On the other hand, Japan and the United States have experienced a harsh and disastrous war, which has led to the formation of the current strong alliance over more than 70 years. This relationship is widening and deepening humanly, structurally, and institutionally, and does not change with temporary changes in the situation.
Currently, the security of Japan and the United States is based on close cooperation between the U.S. military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Although Japan's role in reducing the burden on the U.S. military may increase compared to before, judging from the situation on the ground, there will be no major change in its essence in the future.
I think the best policy for China is to boldly promote reform and open up as it did in the Deng Xiaoping era and cooperate with Japan and the United States.
Ryosei Kokubun is chairman of the Asian Research Council. This article appeared in the Mainichi Shimbun morning edition of December 11, 2025.
It can be said that the prime minister only made a hypothetical statement about the "survival-threatening situation" -- a Japanese legal term describing a national security development that involves an attack on a close ally and poses an existential threat to Japan. In her remarks, Takaichi also said that "the government will make a judgment based on the individual and specific circumstances of the actual situation, incorporating all information." A few days later at the same Diet committee, in reference to her Nov. 7 statement, the premier even spoke of her "regret" over voicing assumptions on a specific case, and that she would "refrain from making clear statements" on this issue in the future.
When Takaichi made this backtracking, there was room for the Chinese side to settle the matter. But the situation took another turn in the meanwhile as the Chinese Consul General in Osaka got flamed for writing on his X (Twitter) that "I have no choice but to cut off that dirty head that has rushed in, without a moment's hesitation."
The Taiwan issue is the biggest priority of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and it is not surprising that he issued a strong order to have Takaichi withdraw her remarks. As a result, some Chinese travelers and students stopped coming to Japan, and Beijing reimposed a ban on importing Japan's seafood that had just been lifted. Cultural projects such as concerts got canceled one after another, followed by a Chinese military jet beaming its radar on Air Self-Defense Force aircraft during an exercise.
Sudden change after summit meeting
In 2010, when Chinese fishing boats collided with Japan Coast Guard vessels near the Senkaku Islands -- claimed by both Tokyo and Beijing -- Japan endured a bitter fallout, including anti-Japanese demonstrations, a suspension of rare earth exports by China, and boycotts of Japanese products. In 2017, South Korea experienced tourism restrictions and boycotts by China due to Beijing's opposition to the deployment of terminal high-altitude defense (THAAD) missiles by U.S. forces stationed in the country. Norway, Canada, Australia, and other countries also had trade restrictions and boycotts with China.
Former U.S. President Joe Biden repeatedly stated that the U.S. military would get involved in the event of a "Taiwan contingency," but China did not go that far with the United States. Or it couldn't. Considering the deep history of Chinese thought, I wonder where the culture of profound virtue has gone.
Japan's first female prime minister, Takaichi assumed office on Oct. 21. Just five days later on Oct. 26 she attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) related summit held in Malaysia. After returning to Japan, on Oct. 28, she sat down with visiting U.S. President Donald Trump, settling the difficult tariff issue and building a personal relationship of trust with Trump.
Then from Oct. 30, she visited Gyeongju, South Korea, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. She first met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to confirm the continuation of future-oriented shuttle diplomacy, without getting bogged down by controversial bilateral historical issues. Takaichi's popularity in South Korea increased as she showed respect with a bow to the Republic of Korea national flag at the summit and mentioned at the inaugural press conference her love of ROK-made cosmetics and seaweed.
Takaichi's meeting with Taiwan representative foreshadowed
The next day, on Oct. 31, a meeting with Chinese President Xi was also realized. The Chinese side was cautious about Prime Minister Takaichi's reputation as a conservative, but the atmosphere of the meeting itself was good. The two leaders reached a series of agreements, including the promotion of strategic mutually beneficial relations, the reaffirmation of the resumption of imports of Japan's seafood products imposed after the 2011 nuclear disaster, and the need for communication between defense authorities.
However, the next day, the Japanese premier met with Taiwanese representative Lin Xinyi, who was participating in APEC, and the Chinese side protested. This seems to have been a foreshadowing of the Chinese side's fierce criticism of "Takaichi remarks" on Nov. 7.
Takaichi's diplomatic debut was a success, and her approval rating in public opinion polls rose. The remarks about a "survival-threatening situation" were made shortly afterward, but a Mainichi Shimbun poll found that 50% of respondents said they did not see a problem with them.
Meanwhile, the first U.S.-China summit in six years was held in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, ahead of APEC. At this meeting, the U.S. side suspended the escalating race to raise tariffs for one year and lowered the tariff on fentanyl, an addictive synthetic painkiller that affects many Americans, from 20% to 10%. The Chinese side suspended export restrictions on rare earths to the United States for one year and agreed to purchase large quantities of U.S. soybeans. It is said that the two leaders did not touch on the Taiwan issue.
On Nov. 24, after Takaichi's remarks, there was a telephone discussion between Trump and Xi. The Chinese side seems to have mentioned the Taiwan issue and U.S.-China cooperation in the war of resistance against Japan, but Mr. Trump only replied that he "understands the importance" of the Taiwan issue. The telephone consultation also confirmed the mutual state visits between the leaders of the United States and China, which are scheduled for next year.
Immediately after that, Trump also called Takaichi. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Trump told the premier that she "should not provoke China," but the Japanese government denied the report.
Based on the above reproduction from press reports of the series of events before and after the "Takaichi remarks," what can we say about that process?
It is difficult for Prime Minister Takaichi to retract her remarks. Above all, she enjoys high popular support, and if her comments are withdrawn, the prime minister's leadership will be weakened at once. If the Chinese side is also acting on President Xi's instructions, it cannot change its course. The pressure on Japan will continue, but what and how far will it go? Will China be able to step into economic sanctions on Japan again while its own economy is on the decline?
In his famous book "The Shanghai Era," which looked back on that era before World War II, Shigeharu Matsumoto, who was active as a journalist in Shanghai, positioned the core of Japan-U.S. relations at that time as the China issue and left a maxim that "Japan-U.S. relations are Japan-China relations."
If we update that ma
xim for our times, it may be that "Japan-U.S. relations depend on U.S.-China relations." However, the current U.S.-China dialogue is premised on mutual distrust and is only a temporary compromise between the two major powers that cannot escape from economic interdependence.
China emphasizes that the United States and China fought together in the war of resistance against Japan, but that was more than 80 years ago, and China at that time was not the People's Republic of China, but the Republic of China.
Unchanging close alliance
On the other hand, Japan and the United States have experienced a harsh and disastrous war, which has led to the formation of the current strong alliance over more than 70 years. This relationship is widening and deepening humanly, structurally, and institutionally, and does not change with temporary changes in the situation.
Currently, the security of Japan and the United States is based on close cooperation between the U.S. military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Although Japan's role in reducing the burden on the U.S. military may increase compared to before, judging from the situation on the ground, there will be no major change in its essence in the future.
I think the best policy for China is to boldly promote reform and open up as it did in the Deng Xiaoping era and cooperate with Japan and the United States.
Ryosei Kokubun is chairman of the Asian Research Council. This article appeared in the Mainichi Shimbun morning edition of December 11, 2025.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
「高市発言」に揺れる日中 カギ握る対米関係の行方
国分 良成 / アジア調査会会長
2026年 1月 26日
「台湾を完全に中国、北京政府の支配下に置くようなことのために、どういう手段を使うか。それが戦艦を使って、そして武力の行使も伴うものであれば、これはどう考えても存立危機事態になり得るケースであると私は考えます」
これが、去る11月7日の衆議院予算委員会における高市早苗首相の答弁である。首相は「存立危機事態」について「なり得る」と仮定の話をしただけとも言えるし、発言のなかで「実際に発生した事態の個別具体的な状況に応じて、政府が全ての情報を総合して判断する」とも述べていた。また数日後の予算委員会でも、特定のケースを想定したことを「反省」し、今後は「明言を慎む」とも語った。
この瞬間に中国側が事態を収める余地はあった。話がややこしくなったのは、首相発言の翌日に駐大阪中国総領事が「勝手に突っ込んできたその汚い首は一瞬の躊躇（ちゅうちょ）もなく斬ってやるしかない」と自身のX（ツイッター）に書き込み、大炎上していたからである。
台湾問題は習近平・中国国家主席の最大の優先課題であり、「発言を撤回させよ」との強い指示が出ても不思議はない。その結果、旅行や留学の停止、解禁したばかりの日本産水産物輸入の禁止、コンサート等の文化事業の中止、そして中国軍機による航空自衛隊機へのレーダー照射などが次々と発生した。
首脳会談後に急転
日本は2010年の尖閣諸島付近での漁船接触のときにも、反日デモやレアアース（希土類）輸出停止、日本製品のボイコットなど、苦い経験を味わっている。韓国は17年、終末高高度防衛（THAAD）ミサイル＝2＝配備への反発から中国による観光制限や不買運動を経験。ノルウェー、カナダやオーストラリアなども、中国との間で貿易規制や不買運動が起きた。
バイデン前大統領は就任中「台湾有事」の際の米軍関与を何度となく明言したが、中国は米国にはそこまではしなかった。あるいは、できなかった。深みのある中国思想史を振り返るにつけ、重厚な徳の文化はどこに行ったのかと思う。
日本で初の女性首相が誕生したのが10月21日。高市首相は26日、マレーシアで開催された東南アジア諸国連合（ASEAN）関連首脳会議に出席し、帰国後の28日には訪日したトランプ米大統領との日米首脳対話で、難関の関税問題をクリアし個人的な信頼関係を築き上げた。
30日からはアジア太平洋経済協力会議（APEC）首脳会議のため韓国の慶州を訪れ、まず韓国の李在明（イジェミョン）大統領と会見し歴史問題を避け未来志向のシャトル外交の継続を確認した。首脳会談で太極旗に一礼したことや就任記者会見で韓国製のコスメやのりが好きだと語ったことで、韓国では高市人気が増した。
日台会見が伏線に
翌31日、中国の習主席との会談も実現した。保守派とされる高市首相の前評判に中国側は慎重だったが、会見自体の雰囲気はよく、戦略的互恵関係の推進、日本産水産物の輸入再開の再確認、防衛当局間の意思疎通の必要などで合意をみた。
だがその翌日、高市首相がAPECに参加していた林信義台湾代表と会見したことで、中国側は反発した。これが「高市発言」に対する中国側の激しい批判の伏線にあったと思われる。
高市首相の外交デビューは成功し、世論調査の支持率は上昇した。存立危機事態発言はその直後のことであったが、毎日新聞の世論調査では、発言に「問題があったとは思わない」の割合は50％である。
一方、6年ぶりの米中首脳会談が、APECに先立つ10月30日に韓国・釜山で行われた。この会談で米側は、エスカレートしていた関税引き上げ競争を1年間停止し、合成麻薬のフェンタニル関税を20％から10％に引き下げた。中国側はレアアースの対米輸出規制を1年間停止し、米国産大豆の大量購入などに合意した。台湾問題には触れられなかったという。
高市発言後の11月24日、トランプ・習両氏による電話協議があった。中国側は台湾問題を取り上げ、抗日戦争における米中連携などについても言及したようだが、トランプ氏は、台湾問題について「重要性を理解している」とだけ答えたという。この電話協議では、来年に予定される米中首脳の相互国賓訪問も確認されたという。
その直後にトランプ氏は高市首相にも電話を入れた。ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル紙の報道によると、トランプ氏が「中国を挑発しないように」と語ったというが、日本政府は否定している。
「高市発言」前後の一連の流れを、一般報道をもとに再現するとこのような経緯になる。こうした過程から何が言えるのか。
高市首相の発言撤回は難しい。何よりも国民からの支持が高く、撤回すれば首相の求心力は一気に弱まるだろう。中国側も習主席の指示であるとすれば、動かすことはできない。今後とも対日圧力は継続するだろうが、何をどこまでやるのか。自国経済が悪い中で再び経済制裁などに踏み込めるのだろうか。
戦前、上海でジャーナリストとして活躍した松本重治は、その時代を回顧した名著「上海時代」（中公新書）のなかで、当時の日米関係の核心を中国問題であると位置付け、「日米関係は日中関係である」との至言を残している。
現代に置き換えれば、「日米関係は米中関係次第である」ということになるかもしれない。だが現在の米中対話は相互不信が前提で、経済相互依存から抜け出せない両大国の一時的な妥協の産物にすぎない。
中国は抗日戦争で米中が一緒に戦ったことを強調するが、それは80年以上前のことであり、しかも当時の中国は中華人民共和国ではなく、中華民国である。
変わらぬ密な同盟
一方、日米は厳しく悲惨な戦争を経験したがゆえに、70年以上かけて現在の強固な同盟関係を形成した。この関係は人的にも構造的にも制度的にも広がり深まっており、一時的な状況変化で変わるものではない。
現在、日米の安全保障は米軍と自衛隊の密な連携により成り立っている。米軍負担の軽減のために日本の役割が以前より増大することはあれ、現場の状況から判断してその本質に今後とも大きな変化はないだろう。
中国にとっての上策は、鄧小平時代のように大胆に改革・開放を進め、日米と協調する以外にないと思うのだが。
筆者はアジア調査会会長。本稿は2025年12月11日の毎日新聞朝刊に掲載された寄稿の再掲である
これが、去る11月7日の衆議院予算委員会における高市早苗首相の答弁である。首相は「存立危機事態」について「なり得る」と仮定の話をしただけとも言えるし、発言のなかで「実際に発生した事態の個別具体的な状況に応じて、政府が全ての情報を総合して判断する」とも述べていた。また数日後の予算委員会でも、特定のケースを想定したことを「反省」し、今後は「明言を慎む」とも語った。
この瞬間に中国側が事態を収める余地はあった。話がややこしくなったのは、首相発言の翌日に駐大阪中国総領事が「勝手に突っ込んできたその汚い首は一瞬の躊躇（ちゅうちょ）もなく斬ってやるしかない」と自身のX（ツイッター）に書き込み、大炎上していたからである。
台湾問題は習近平・中国国家主席の最大の優先課題であり、「発言を撤回させよ」との強い指示が出ても不思議はない。その結果、旅行や留学の停止、解禁したばかりの日本産水産物輸入の禁止、コンサート等の文化事業の中止、そして中国軍機による航空自衛隊機へのレーダー照射などが次々と発生した。
首脳会談後に急転
日本は2010年の尖閣諸島付近での漁船接触のときにも、反日デモやレアアース（希土類）輸出停止、日本製品のボイコットなど、苦い経験を味わっている。韓国は17年、終末高高度防衛（THAAD）ミサイル＝2＝配備への反発から中国による観光制限や不買運動を経験。ノルウェー、カナダやオーストラリアなども、中国との間で貿易規制や不買運動が起きた。
バイデン前大統領は就任中「台湾有事」の際の米軍関与を何度となく明言したが、中国は米国にはそこまではしなかった。あるいは、できなかった。深みのある中国思想史を振り返るにつけ、重厚な徳の文化はどこに行ったのかと思う。
日本で初の女性首相が誕生したのが10月21日。高市首相は26日、マレーシアで開催された東南アジア諸国連合（ASEAN）関連首脳会議に出席し、帰国後の28日には訪日したトランプ米大統領との日米首脳対話で、難関の関税問題をクリアし個人的な信頼関係を築き上げた。
30日からはアジア太平洋経済協力会議（APEC）首脳会議のため韓国の慶州を訪れ、まず韓国の李在明（イジェミョン）大統領と会見し歴史問題を避け未来志向のシャトル外交の継続を確認した。首脳会談で太極旗に一礼したことや就任記者会見で韓国製のコスメやのりが好きだと語ったことで、韓国では高市人気が増した。
日台会見が伏線に
翌31日、中国の習主席との会談も実現した。保守派とされる高市首相の前評判に中国側は慎重だったが、会見自体の雰囲気はよく、戦略的互恵関係の推進、日本産水産物の輸入再開の再確認、防衛当局間の意思疎通の必要などで合意をみた。
だがその翌日、高市首相がAPECに参加していた林信義台湾代表と会見したことで、中国側は反発した。これが「高市発言」に対する中国側の激しい批判の伏線にあったと思われる。
高市首相の外交デビューは成功し、世論調査の支持率は上昇した。存立危機事態発言はその直後のことであったが、毎日新聞の世論調査では、発言に「問題があったとは思わない」の割合は50％である。
一方、6年ぶりの米中首脳会談が、APECに先立つ10月30日に韓国・釜山で行われた。この会談で米側は、エスカレートしていた関税引き上げ競争を1年間停止し、合成麻薬のフェンタニル関税を20％から10％に引き下げた。中国側はレアアースの対米輸出規制を1年間停止し、米国産大豆の大量購入などに合意した。台湾問題には触れられなかったという。
高市発言後の11月24日、トランプ・習両氏による電話協議があった。中国側は台湾問題を取り上げ、抗日戦争における米中連携などについても言及したようだが、トランプ氏は、台湾問題について「重要性を理解している」とだけ答えたという。この電話協議では、来年に予定される米中首脳の相互国賓訪問も確認されたという。
その直後にトランプ氏は高市首相にも電話を入れた。ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル紙の報道によると、トランプ氏が「中国を挑発しないように」と語ったというが、日本政府は否定している。
「高市発言」前後の一連の流れを、一般報道をもとに再現するとこのような経緯になる。こうした過程から何が言えるのか。
高市首相の発言撤回は難しい。何よりも国民からの支持が高く、撤回すれば首相の求心力は一気に弱まるだろう。中国側も習主席の指示であるとすれば、動かすことはできない。今後とも対日圧力は継続するだろうが、何をどこまでやるのか。自国経済が悪い中で再び経済制裁などに踏み込めるのだろうか。
戦前、上海でジャーナリストとして活躍した松本重治は、その時代を回顧した名著「上海時代」（中公新書）のなかで、当時の日米関係の核心を中国問題であると位置付け、「日米関係は日中関係である」との至言を残している。
現代に置き換えれば、「日米関係は米中関係次第である」ということになるかもしれない。だが現在の米中対話は相互不信が前提で、経済相互依存から抜け出せない両大国の一時的な妥協の産物にすぎない。
中国は抗日戦争で米中が一緒に戦ったことを強調するが、それは80年以上前のことであり、しかも当時の中国は中華人民共和国ではなく、中華民国である。
変わらぬ密な同盟
一方、日米は厳しく悲惨な戦争を経験したがゆえに、70年以上かけて現在の強固な同盟関係を形成した。この関係は人的にも構造的にも制度的にも広がり深まっており、一時的な状況変化で変わるものではない。
現在、日米の安全保障は米軍と自衛隊の密な連携により成り立っている。米軍負担の軽減のために日本の役割が以前より増大することはあれ、現場の状況から判断してその本質に今後とも大きな変化はないだろう。
中国にとっての上策は、鄧小平時代のように大胆に改革・開放を進め、日米と協調する以外にないと思うのだが。
筆者はアジア調査会会長。本稿は2025年12月11日の毎日新聞朝刊に掲載された寄稿の再掲である
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟