The Accession of the New Pope, Leo XIV
UENO Kagefumi / Civilizationologist
February 10, 2026
1. How and why Pope Leo XIV came to be Elected?
Avoiding a Split within the Church
Under the papacy of Francis, the global Catholic Church became increasingly polarized between liberals who supported the pontiff and conservatives who opposed him, raising concerns that the Church itself might fracture.
Amid this atmosphere, cardinals who gathered in Rome for the conclave voiced a shared conviction: that a division of the Church must be prevented at all costs. There was tacit but broad recognition that candidates with extreme ideological leanings—whether liberal or conservative—should be avoided. Ultimately, the conclave held in May last year elected Cardinal Robert Prevost as Pope Leo XIV, who was seen by many as “harmless”.
Pope Francis was known as a man shaped by pastoral experience rather than Vatican bureaucracy. Unfamiliar with navigating and balancing complex political interests, he was often characterized by direct and forthright statements. His relationship with Vatican officials was at times strained.
By contrast, the new Pope brings a markedly different profile. Having served both as the head of a religious order and in key administrative positions within the Vatican, he has extensive experience managing large organizations. Pope Leo XIV is regarded as a pragmatic leader, adept at balancing diverse interests and exercising cautious, managerial decision-making.
The First American Pope
Fifteen years ago, in Rome where I resided, some Vatican observers whispered to me that “it is hard to imagine an American being elected pope.” They meant, I suspect, that the United States , who is a dominant political hegemon, should never be concurrently a spiritual hegemon, lest that acutely breaks the global balance.
For that reason, the election of an American was widely seen as “unexpected or unlikely.” Yet from another perspective, it could also be described as “inevitable.” Catholics in North and South America together account for roughly half of the world’s Catholic population. Statistically speaking, it would not be surprising if a pope from the Americas were chosen every other conclave.
Even so, until the election of Pope Francis of Argentina in 2013, no pope had ever come from the American continents. The Americas had long been treated as peripheral within the Catholic Church, in contrast to Europe, which represents only about 20 percent of the global Catholic population but had enjoyed central status for centuries. The previous pope openly challenged this Eurocentrism in the Vatican, repeatedly arguing that greater attention should be paid to the “South.”
Although U.S. media celebrated the new pontiff as the first pope from the United States, many of the cardinals who took part in the conclave likely viewed him less as an American than as a Peruvian, or more broadly, a South American figure. Peru is one of the poorer countries in South America, and Pope Leo XIV can be seen as a pontiff who embodies the “South.” He is expected to carry forward his predecessor’s emphasis on the South.
Conservative Maneuvering
Within the U.S. Catholic Church, surveys suggest that some 60–70 percent of lay Catholics supported Pope Francis. By contrast, an estimated 60–70 percent of bishops lean conservative and were critical of the former pope, arguing that he was overly lenient on issues such as homosexuality. Among conservative circles, it had long been said that “someone like Francis must not be elected at the next conclave,” and they jointly endeavored to “conspire” in various manners to attain that goal. As a result, a figure regarded as “centrist”—neither liberal nor ultra-conservative—was ultimately chosen.
Chicago, where Leo XIV grew up, is a city known for its strong liberal orientation. From there, he went on to serve in South America, and is therefore thought to have had limited contact with conservative U.S. Catholics. On issues of social policy, social justice, and the environment, Leo XIV is seen as largely continuing the line of his liberal predecessor. On the other hand, on bioethics (such as abortion) and family ethics (such as LGBTQ issues), he is generally viewed as taking a more conservative stance.
2. The Pope’s Distance from the United States and China
From the outset of his pontificate, Pope Leo has spoken out on international issues such as the war in Ukraine. Together with him, senior Church officials have commented on Gaza, the West Bank, Venezuela, Greenland and so forth. Their statements largely appeared critical of the United States and Israel, although their language has been carefully chosen. Lately, the pope and some American cardinals have strongly criticized actions by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as harsh and excessive, which included a drastic view expressed by the Cardinal of Newark urging members of the church to pressure lawmakers to block funding for ICE.
Against this backdrop, MAGA-aligned conservatives have branded the new pope with labels such as “commie” and “woke,” much as they did his predecessor. Steve Bannon, a close associate of former President Donald Trump, had early on predicted that relations between the new pope and the U.S. administration would become tense.
A brief word on relations with China. Unlike his predecessor, who pressed ahead to have closer relation with Beijing, Leo XIV is expected to adopt a more cautious approach, mindful of concerns voiced by conservatives within the Church.
3. Outlook
By paying careful attention to multiple constituencies and keeping cautious stance, Leo’s pontificate is likely to be more restrained and quiet than his predecessor, who often kept high-profile and whose presence loomed large. In Japan, by and large, relevant media coverage has, on the whole, been favorable.
UENO Kagefumi is former Ambassador to the Holy See
Avoiding a Split within the Church
Under the papacy of Francis, the global Catholic Church became increasingly polarized between liberals who supported the pontiff and conservatives who opposed him, raising concerns that the Church itself might fracture.
Amid this atmosphere, cardinals who gathered in Rome for the conclave voiced a shared conviction: that a division of the Church must be prevented at all costs. There was tacit but broad recognition that candidates with extreme ideological leanings—whether liberal or conservative—should be avoided. Ultimately, the conclave held in May last year elected Cardinal Robert Prevost as Pope Leo XIV, who was seen by many as “harmless”.
Pope Francis was known as a man shaped by pastoral experience rather than Vatican bureaucracy. Unfamiliar with navigating and balancing complex political interests, he was often characterized by direct and forthright statements. His relationship with Vatican officials was at times strained.
By contrast, the new Pope brings a markedly different profile. Having served both as the head of a religious order and in key administrative positions within the Vatican, he has extensive experience managing large organizations. Pope Leo XIV is regarded as a pragmatic leader, adept at balancing diverse interests and exercising cautious, managerial decision-making.
The First American Pope
Fifteen years ago, in Rome where I resided, some Vatican observers whispered to me that “it is hard to imagine an American being elected pope.” They meant, I suspect, that the United States , who is a dominant political hegemon, should never be concurrently a spiritual hegemon, lest that acutely breaks the global balance.
For that reason, the election of an American was widely seen as “unexpected or unlikely.” Yet from another perspective, it could also be described as “inevitable.” Catholics in North and South America together account for roughly half of the world’s Catholic population. Statistically speaking, it would not be surprising if a pope from the Americas were chosen every other conclave.
Even so, until the election of Pope Francis of Argentina in 2013, no pope had ever come from the American continents. The Americas had long been treated as peripheral within the Catholic Church, in contrast to Europe, which represents only about 20 percent of the global Catholic population but had enjoyed central status for centuries. The previous pope openly challenged this Eurocentrism in the Vatican, repeatedly arguing that greater attention should be paid to the “South.”
Although U.S. media celebrated the new pontiff as the first pope from the United States, many of the cardinals who took part in the conclave likely viewed him less as an American than as a Peruvian, or more broadly, a South American figure. Peru is one of the poorer countries in South America, and Pope Leo XIV can be seen as a pontiff who embodies the “South.” He is expected to carry forward his predecessor’s emphasis on the South.
Conservative Maneuvering
Within the U.S. Catholic Church, surveys suggest that some 60–70 percent of lay Catholics supported Pope Francis. By contrast, an estimated 60–70 percent of bishops lean conservative and were critical of the former pope, arguing that he was overly lenient on issues such as homosexuality. Among conservative circles, it had long been said that “someone like Francis must not be elected at the next conclave,” and they jointly endeavored to “conspire” in various manners to attain that goal. As a result, a figure regarded as “centrist”—neither liberal nor ultra-conservative—was ultimately chosen.
Chicago, where Leo XIV grew up, is a city known for its strong liberal orientation. From there, he went on to serve in South America, and is therefore thought to have had limited contact with conservative U.S. Catholics. On issues of social policy, social justice, and the environment, Leo XIV is seen as largely continuing the line of his liberal predecessor. On the other hand, on bioethics (such as abortion) and family ethics (such as LGBTQ issues), he is generally viewed as taking a more conservative stance.
2. The Pope’s Distance from the United States and China
From the outset of his pontificate, Pope Leo has spoken out on international issues such as the war in Ukraine. Together with him, senior Church officials have commented on Gaza, the West Bank, Venezuela, Greenland and so forth. Their statements largely appeared critical of the United States and Israel, although their language has been carefully chosen. Lately, the pope and some American cardinals have strongly criticized actions by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as harsh and excessive, which included a drastic view expressed by the Cardinal of Newark urging members of the church to pressure lawmakers to block funding for ICE.
Against this backdrop, MAGA-aligned conservatives have branded the new pope with labels such as “commie” and “woke,” much as they did his predecessor. Steve Bannon, a close associate of former President Donald Trump, had early on predicted that relations between the new pope and the U.S. administration would become tense.
A brief word on relations with China. Unlike his predecessor, who pressed ahead to have closer relation with Beijing, Leo XIV is expected to adopt a more cautious approach, mindful of concerns voiced by conservatives within the Church.
3. Outlook
By paying careful attention to multiple constituencies and keeping cautious stance, Leo’s pontificate is likely to be more restrained and quiet than his predecessor, who often kept high-profile and whose presence loomed large. In Japan, by and large, relevant media coverage has, on the whole, been favorable.
UENO Kagefumi is former Ambassador to the Holy See
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
新教皇レオ14世の登場
上野 景文 / 文明論考家
2026年 2月 10日
１． 新教皇登場の背景
●教会の分断を回避
前教皇フランシスコの治世下、世界のカトリック教会は、教皇支持のリベラル派と（教皇に反発した）保守派との間の分断が進み、教会分裂を危惧する声さえ聞かれた。が、コンクラーベ参加のためローマに集まった枢機卿の間では、「教会の分断だけは絶対に避けるべし」との声、（リベラルであれ、保守であれ）極端な思想の持ち主は避けるべしとの声が強まり、結果的に、昨年５月に実施されたコンクラーベでは「無難な」レオ14世が選ばれることになった。
教皇フランシスコは、現場でたたき上げられて来た人物。バチカンの官僚主義とは無縁であり、複雑な意見、利害を調整すると言った経験には乏しく、ストレートな言動が目立ち、バチカン官僚との折り合いは良くなかった。これに対し、新教皇は、修道会のトップやバチカンの要職を経験して来たこともあり、大組織のマネージメントの経験が豊富で、多様な利害に目配りし、調整することに長け、慎重に判断・行動する実務型の特徴を持つ。
●初の米国人教皇
１５年前、ローマでよく耳にしたことは、「米国人が教皇に選出されることは考えにくい」というものだった。ハード面でのヘゲモンである米国が、「スピリチュアル」な面でもヘゲモンになることはバランスを失すると言う意味だ。
それだけに、米国人の選出は「意外であった」。しかし別の視点から見ると「当然のこと」であったとも言える。南北米大陸のカトリック人口は、全世界のカトリック人口の約５割を占めていることから、２回に１回は米州出身者が教皇に選出されてもおかしくないのだから。
にもかかわらず、アルゼンチン出身のフラシスコ教皇が選出される2013年まで、米州大陸出身者が選出されたことはなく、米州はカトリック教会において「軽く」扱われて来た。世界のカトリック人口の２割に過ぎない欧州が長年にわたり優遇されて来たのと対照的に。前教皇は、このバチカンの欧州中心主義（euro-centrism）に挑戦し、もっと「南」に意を用いるべしと主張し続けた。
なお、新教皇は史上初の米国出身者と米国メデイアははしゃいだが、コンクラーベに参加した枢機卿の多くは、新教皇を、米国人と言うより、ペルー人・南米人として認識していたものと思われる。ペルーは南米でも貧しい国であり、レオ14世は「南」を体現する教皇と言える。前教皇の「南」重視路線を引き継ぐことになろう。
●保守派の工作
米国のカトリック教会では、一般信者の6－７割が教皇フランシスコを支持している反面、司教の６－７割は保守色が濃厚で、「同性愛者などへの厳しさを欠く」前教皇に批判的であった。保守派の間では、かねてより、「次回コンクラーベではフランシスコのような人物を選出させてはならない」との声が聞かれ、種々の工作が行われて来た。かくして、リベラルでも超保守でもない「中道」派が選択された。
レオ１４世が育ったシカゴは、リベラル色が強い地域だ。彼はそこから南米に飛び出して行った訳で、米国教会の保守層との接触は薄かったものと見られる。レオ14世は、社会問題、社会正義の問題、環境問題に関してはリベラルな前教皇流れを継承している。ただ、（中絶問題を含む）生命倫理、（LGBTQなどを含む）家族倫理などの面では、より保守的であると見られている。
２． 教皇と米国、中国との距離感
新教皇は、就任早々からウクライナ問題を始めとする国際問題に関し発言をしている。教皇に加え、教会幹部も、ガザ、西岸地区、ベネズエラ、グリーンランドなどの問題につき、発言している。慎重に言葉を選んでいるものの、概して米国、イスラエルなどに対し批判的だ。更に、教皇や米国の一部枢機卿は、米国の移民税関捜査局（ICE）の過激な行動を厳しく批判しており、ICEへの予算配分をブロックするよう議会に働きかけよと教会員に呼びかけた強硬発言（ニューアークの枢機卿）すら聞かれた。
かかる事情もあり、MAGA保守派は、新教皇に、前教皇に対してと同様、「コミー」、「ウォーク」などのレッテルを貼っており、トランプ氏側近のバノン氏は、早くから、新教皇と米政権の関係は緊張を孕むものとなろうと予言していた。
最後に、対中関係につきひと言。レオ14世は、対中融和に真っ直ぐ突き進んだ前教皇とは違い、保守派への目配りをも怠らず、より慎重な構えで臨むものと見る。
３． 展望
各方面に目配りし、慎重に振舞う新教皇の治世は、派手な振舞が多く、存在感が高かった前教皇に比べると、総じて、地味で、大人しめなものになると見る。なお、日本での関連報道は、総じて好意的だ。
筆者は元駐バチカン大使
●教会の分断を回避
前教皇フランシスコの治世下、世界のカトリック教会は、教皇支持のリベラル派と（教皇に反発した）保守派との間の分断が進み、教会分裂を危惧する声さえ聞かれた。が、コンクラーベ参加のためローマに集まった枢機卿の間では、「教会の分断だけは絶対に避けるべし」との声、（リベラルであれ、保守であれ）極端な思想の持ち主は避けるべしとの声が強まり、結果的に、昨年５月に実施されたコンクラーベでは「無難な」レオ14世が選ばれることになった。
教皇フランシスコは、現場でたたき上げられて来た人物。バチカンの官僚主義とは無縁であり、複雑な意見、利害を調整すると言った経験には乏しく、ストレートな言動が目立ち、バチカン官僚との折り合いは良くなかった。これに対し、新教皇は、修道会のトップやバチカンの要職を経験して来たこともあり、大組織のマネージメントの経験が豊富で、多様な利害に目配りし、調整することに長け、慎重に判断・行動する実務型の特徴を持つ。
●初の米国人教皇
１５年前、ローマでよく耳にしたことは、「米国人が教皇に選出されることは考えにくい」というものだった。ハード面でのヘゲモンである米国が、「スピリチュアル」な面でもヘゲモンになることはバランスを失すると言う意味だ。
それだけに、米国人の選出は「意外であった」。しかし別の視点から見ると「当然のこと」であったとも言える。南北米大陸のカトリック人口は、全世界のカトリック人口の約５割を占めていることから、２回に１回は米州出身者が教皇に選出されてもおかしくないのだから。
にもかかわらず、アルゼンチン出身のフラシスコ教皇が選出される2013年まで、米州大陸出身者が選出されたことはなく、米州はカトリック教会において「軽く」扱われて来た。世界のカトリック人口の２割に過ぎない欧州が長年にわたり優遇されて来たのと対照的に。前教皇は、このバチカンの欧州中心主義（euro-centrism）に挑戦し、もっと「南」に意を用いるべしと主張し続けた。
なお、新教皇は史上初の米国出身者と米国メデイアははしゃいだが、コンクラーベに参加した枢機卿の多くは、新教皇を、米国人と言うより、ペルー人・南米人として認識していたものと思われる。ペルーは南米でも貧しい国であり、レオ14世は「南」を体現する教皇と言える。前教皇の「南」重視路線を引き継ぐことになろう。
●保守派の工作
米国のカトリック教会では、一般信者の6－７割が教皇フランシスコを支持している反面、司教の６－７割は保守色が濃厚で、「同性愛者などへの厳しさを欠く」前教皇に批判的であった。保守派の間では、かねてより、「次回コンクラーベではフランシスコのような人物を選出させてはならない」との声が聞かれ、種々の工作が行われて来た。かくして、リベラルでも超保守でもない「中道」派が選択された。
レオ１４世が育ったシカゴは、リベラル色が強い地域だ。彼はそこから南米に飛び出して行った訳で、米国教会の保守層との接触は薄かったものと見られる。レオ14世は、社会問題、社会正義の問題、環境問題に関してはリベラルな前教皇流れを継承している。ただ、（中絶問題を含む）生命倫理、（LGBTQなどを含む）家族倫理などの面では、より保守的であると見られている。
２． 教皇と米国、中国との距離感
新教皇は、就任早々からウクライナ問題を始めとする国際問題に関し発言をしている。教皇に加え、教会幹部も、ガザ、西岸地区、ベネズエラ、グリーンランドなどの問題につき、発言している。慎重に言葉を選んでいるものの、概して米国、イスラエルなどに対し批判的だ。更に、教皇や米国の一部枢機卿は、米国の移民税関捜査局（ICE）の過激な行動を厳しく批判しており、ICEへの予算配分をブロックするよう議会に働きかけよと教会員に呼びかけた強硬発言（ニューアークの枢機卿）すら聞かれた。
かかる事情もあり、MAGA保守派は、新教皇に、前教皇に対してと同様、「コミー」、「ウォーク」などのレッテルを貼っており、トランプ氏側近のバノン氏は、早くから、新教皇と米政権の関係は緊張を孕むものとなろうと予言していた。
最後に、対中関係につきひと言。レオ14世は、対中融和に真っ直ぐ突き進んだ前教皇とは違い、保守派への目配りをも怠らず、より慎重な構えで臨むものと見る。
３． 展望
各方面に目配りし、慎重に振舞う新教皇の治世は、派手な振舞が多く、存在感が高かった前教皇に比べると、総じて、地味で、大人しめなものになると見る。なお、日本での関連報道は、総じて好意的だ。
筆者は元駐バチカン大使
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟